Projecting Byung-ho Park and Hyun-soo Kim – The Results

Yesterday, I laid out the framework for how I go about projecting players entering MLB from a foreign league. This year, two hitters from the KBO League of South Korea will be making their debuts this year, Byung-ho Park of the Twins and Hyun-soo Kim of the Orioles. Refresh your memory of each of their statistics by reviewing yesterday’s post linked to above. Now that you’re back, let’s get to projecting.

We will start with Park, who according to RosterResource’s best guess, will open the season batting seventh. That’s not a good spot, obviously. But this of course is not set in stone, and heck, RosterResource is just speculating here to begin with. Looking at the team’s lineup, it appears that he could realistically hit fifth, at best. That is unless Byron Buxton is a spectacular flop again and is jettisoned to the bottom of the order or back to the minors, pushing everyone up a spot, and moving Park into the cleanup slot. That’s a lot of ifs, but there’s certainly a non-zero possibility such a scenario unfolds. Still, at this point, you have to project him assuming he bats seventh and then if that turns out to be an unlikelihood, adjust then.

The seventh spot in the batting order accrues about 100 fewer plate appearances than the leadoff man, so that batting order spot is going to reduce Park’s counting stats. We also have to consider two points that could reduce his playing time — if he is the every day designated hitter, he’s going to lose starts in NL parks, and since we have no idea if he can hack it in MLB, we have to factor in the possibility he is a bust and loses playing time. So with all that said, my various nerd formulas came up with a plate appearance projection of 546.

As we discovered yesterday, Park struck out often in South Korea. Since pitchers in MLB are probably better, and likely significantly so, it’s not a stretch to believe Park will strike out even more frequently here. So I forecasted a 28.6% strikeout rate, which could be problematic for his fantasy potential. I don’t know what BABIP marks are like in KBO, but Park has posted a respectable one by MLB standards, so I went with a .310 mark. Could be way too high, too low, or just right. Who knows. The combination of his BABIP, strikeout rate, and home run total (patience, we’ll get to that) produced a batting average projection of just .244, which is harmful in basically every league format.

Finally, let’s get to the power, following by his runs batted in, and runs scored. Park has slammed 105 home runs over the past two seasons, but we don’t know what his batted ball distribution or HR/FB rates looked like. Therefore, I have estimated a HR/FB rate of 17.5%, which is similar to guys like Jose Bautista, Albert Pujols, and Manny Machado in 2015. That HR/FB rate yields a home run total of 22.

Park doesn’t possess much speed, but I forecasted two steals. Without much speed and hitting in the bottom third of the lineup, he’s not going to be much of an asset in runs scored. My formula spit out a projection of 63 runs scored. Hitting seventh also isn’t great for knocking in runners and the two guys expected to hit ahead of him, Trevor Plouffe and Eddie Rosario, figure to post weak OBP marks. So my formula produced a runs batted in forecast of 67.

Here is my total projected fantasy line:

Now let’s get to Kim. Unlike Park, RosterResource thinks he’ll open the season in a prime batting slot for amassing fantasy value — leadoff. That would be good in any lineup, but when the hitters that follow are named Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Mark Trumbo, you’re in a fantastic spot. All those guys have serious power which could result in a boatload of runs scored.

Unfortunately, there is a potential downside. Kim is left-handed and although I’m unaware of his platoon splits in KBO, RosterResource is indicating they expect him to form the strong part of a platoon in left field. That’s not great and wipes out the advantage he had of hitting leadoff. Because of this playing time risk, I forecasted a slightly lower total number of plate appearances for him compared to Park of 533. And of course, it can only get worse from hitting atop the order, so the possibility he gets dropped down if he doesn’t hit has to be considered.

In South Korea, Kim made excellent contact (or I should say excellently avoided the strikeout), about 50% better than his leaguemates. Because he will probably find it a bit more challenging to face MLB pitchers, I projected a 13.2% strikeout rate. I also projected a .305 BABIP, which is essentially the same wild guess I made with park. Pairing his forecasted strikeout rate with his BABIP and home runs yields a batting average of .282, which should contribute positive value in every league.

Kim’s power does not compare to Park’s, but he picked a fantasy ballpark to call home. Camden Yards sports a 114 left-handed home run park factor. Kim does have some power, but most believe it’s just about league average. Not fully knowing how mediocre power is going to translate, I went with a 10% HR/FB rate, which results in 13 home runs. Though he attempted slightly fewer steals than Park, I projected a slightly higher attempt rate simply because he’s hitting leadoff, though the presence of a group of mashers behind him may very well keep him station to station.

Last are the runs scored and runs batting in projections. Despite hitting fewer homers that automatically tally a run scored, I projected Kim to score more runs — 72 — than Park thanks to a much more attractive lineup spot. The runs batted in projection pales in comparison to Kim though, as I’m forecasting a total of just 56, which would actually be a bit high for a leadoff guy. I hedged in that I cannot be sure he remains atop the order all season.

And now for Kim’s complete projected fantasy line:

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Do you agree with my projections? What are you projecting for Park and Kim?