Projected Ottoneu Risers and Fallers – Arms

Last week, we looked at bats whose rest-of-season projected points per game had the largest gap from their points per game to-date. This week, we’ll shift to the mound and do a similar comparison.

For this, I pulled a list of 145 pitchers (SP or RP) who have 20+ IP in 2021, a ROS projection on Depth Charts, and either a projected or an actual FanGraphs Points per inning pitched over 3.5. The table below shows the ten largest positive and negative gaps.

P/IP vs. Projected P/IP Leaders and Laggards
Rank Name Pt/IP To Date Pt/IP ROS Diff
1 Adam Plutko 6.12 2.89 -3.22
2 Carlos Rodón 7.67 4.61 -3.06
3 Corbin Burnes 8.48 5.71 -2.77
4 John Means 6.33 3.72 -2.61
5 Ryan Weathers 6.74 4.21 -2.53
6 Wade Miley 5.84 3.56 -2.28
7 Michael Kopech 7.51 5.30 -2.21
8 Tyler Rogers 7.78 5.65 -2.14
9 Yusmeiro Petit 7.04 4.92 -2.12
10 Alex Reyes 9.26 7.16 -2.10
136 Jesús Luzardo 3.00 4.43 1.44
137 Alec Mills 2.07 3.59 1.52
138 Vince Velasquez 2.70 4.31 1.61
139 Kenta Maeda 2.17 4.28 2.11
140 Max Fried 2.28 4.44 2.15
141 Brad Keller 1.33 3.57 2.24
142 Patrick Corbin 1.71 4.16 2.44
143 Luis Castillo 2.02 4.69 2.67
144 Drew Smyly 0.71 3.54 2.83
145 Kyle Hendricks 0.50 3.80 3.30

Starting with the overperformers (players whose YTD stats outpace their ROS projection), there are a couple of “nothing to see here” guys, for very different reasons. Adam Plutko is a semi-interesting bulk reliever, but his HR/FB rate is going to regress heavily and while he’ll continue to be useful for the Orioles, when his ERA matches his xFIP (5.18 as of now), he won’t put up enough P/IP to be valuable in Ottoneu. At the other end of the spectrum, Corbin Burnes is probably not going to continue pitching like Greg Maddux with better strikeouts, but he’s an ace and he’ll still be an ace after the regression monster bites him.

Michael Kopech and Ryan Weathers are another pair that fit well together. For both, some of the gap is regression (P/IP will fall as HR/FB rate and BABIP normalize), part of it is usage mix (both are projected to be used more as a SP than a RP, relative to how they have been used so far). And part of it is the projections likely struggling with a young pitcher who hasn’t seen a Major or Minor League hitter since at least 2019 (2018 for Kopech). On top of that, Weathers has only 114.1 IP in Rookie- and A-Ball coming into the year, and who hadn’t pitched at any level since 2019. Pre-season, both Depth Charts projected both with a 4.60 FIP; Weather’s is now projected at 3.93 and Kopech and 3.92. If they keep performing, those will move even lower. Neither will finish with the P/IP they have today, unless they primarily stay in the pen, but they both look really good. I would buy both, with a preference for Kopech long-term, but perhaps Weathers (better hold on a rotation spot) this year.

Next, we have the no-hitters – Wade Miley, Carlos Rodon, and John Means. You have to go back to 2012 for the last time Miley had such a low walk rate (5.8% this year, 4.6% in 2012) or this good a K%-BB% (13.9% this year, 13.3% that year). For a guy who gives up as much contact as he does, avoiding walks is a major benefit – his high ground ball rate this year means he won’t give up too many HR and since he limits hard contact, guys need to move station-to-station against him. Avoiding walks is his best path to limiting base runners. He has increased his changeup usage, which might be helping, but there are some red flags here. His zone rate isn’t up, so the increased walks are based on players chasing more. In 2012, when he pitched really well and avoided walks, his zone rate was 45.8% and this year it is 32.6%. He doesn’t get a ton of swinging strikes, he isn’t getting that many called strikes (his CSW is 25%, which is below league average), and I think this is all smoke and mirrors. Maybe he’ll walk this tightrope all year, but I am not sticking around to find out.

Rodon and Means, on the other hand, appear to have legitimately broken out. Rodon’s “bad” ROS of projection is still 4.61, which is very, very good and if he stays healthy, that’ll be just great. Means has increased his velocity and his swinging strike rate, leading to a career-high 31.3% CSW. I think the projections are catching up and while he isn’t going to be a 6 P/IP pitcher the rest of the way, I would bet on him being closer to 5 than to his 3.72 projection.

That leaves us with a bullpen trio. Alex Reyes has given up 3 HR in 92.2 career innings, but is projected to give up 5 HR in his next 48 innings, per depth charts. If he gives up 1 HR instead of 5, that adds 1.24 P/IP to his projection. Basically, if you think that his first 92.2 innings are a sign of his HR prevention skills (and they might be!), he’ll be closer to his current scores rest of the way and he’ll be an elite reliever. If you think it’s only 92.2 IP and that 92.2 IP of HR/FB rate is just noise (and it might be!), he’ll be closer to that projection and still be a very good, very useful Ottoneu reliever.

Petit is projected to revert to his peripherals, but over the last five seasons, he has consistently seen better results than his xFIP, FIP or SIERA would suggest and so there is some reason to think he can do that again. That said, this year seems to be a bit extreme and I suspect he ends up closer to 6 P/IP, and probably a bit under. His biggest value comes from pitching a ton of innings, so he may still carry Ottoneu value, but it’s as a guy who gives you lots of mediocre RP innings, not a guy who keeps up 7+ P/IP.

Rogers has 3 saves and 10 holds so far, but projects for just 7 and 9 more the rest of the way. Prorating his 3 and 10, you would get 7.3 saves and 21.3 more holds. The extra holds and saves would give him an extra point per inning pitched the rest of the way. The rest of the gap is from BABIP regression, some additional HR, and a shift in his K and BB – right now both are extremely low. If you can sell Rogers as an elite RP, I would. I think he will be fine, but finishing the year with 31 holds and 10 saves would make him an outlier (31 holds led MLB in 2019 and no one had 40+ Holds + Saves without less than 30 saves) and I don’t think he is one.

At the other end of the spectrum, I am going to start with a pretty weak comment: I think Luzardo is way more talented than his numbers have shown and I am still buying. The projections point at what he could easily do, and there is more there. I am still in.

Alec Mills, Brad Keller, and Drew Smyly, I am going to be just as brief – they have been bad, they project to be less bad, but still not that good. All three would have some value as a matchup play if they meet those projections. But they might not meet them. I’ll let someone else buy low, if they want. I am also out on Velasquez. His projection is better than the other three names in this paragraph, but it is heavily influenced by RP innings and isn’t good enough to be existing.

And then there are the five guys who are theoretically aces and not showing it: Fried, Corbin, Maeda, Castillo, and Hendricks. Fried’s peripherals look a lot like last year and his last two starts have been solid, including a tough matchup with Toronto. I am buying where I can (I just traded Brandon Lowe for him in a non-Ottoneu league that has similar player values).

Corbin I would buy low and certainly hold after his great start last night. That was his second very good start this year and he is starting to round into shape. I don’t want to pay full price for what Corbin was in 2018-19, as there is still a lot of risk here, but his velocity is heading back up, his slider is looking better, and there is a lot to like.

Maeda has been losing velocity for a couple of years and that is continuing. Last year, he managed to have a big jump in chase rate, but that has come back down and contact rates have gone up, resulting in much a lower whiff rate. If I have Maeda, I am holding, only cause he is too valuable and it is too early to cut. But I am not buying and if someone offered me anything of value for him, I would probably take it.

Castillo is suffering even worse contact issues, as he has the 12th highest contact rate (80.1%) in baseball. He just isn’t fooling anyone right now. Without the swinging strikes, he is reliant on called strikes and his CSW is down, well below league average (25.7%). Like Maeda, I can’t see cutting Castillo right now, but I would be very careful about where and when I use him.

Hendricks is an interesting case because while he has been an ace for the Cubs, his Ottoneu value has always been lower than other formats – he doesn’t get enough K’s to be elite in Ottoneu. Now his ability to pitch well despite limited strikeouts seems to have dried up. This is the risk with this profile – if the BABIP is high (it is) and the HR/FB rate jumps (it has) or control isn’t absolutely elite (it hasn’t been), there is nothing to fall back on. In most formats, I would be holding Hendricks, but in Ottoneu points leagues, I think you could cut him if you need the cap space. He’ll pitch better, I am sure, but his upside is getting back to where he was, which is a good-but-not-great Ottoneu pitcher.





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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Ryan DCmember
2 years ago

P. Corbin, Maeda, Luzardo, Kopech, and Charlie Morton are all recently on the waiver wire. Got a preference between them ROS? (standard 12 team H2H roto)

Ryan DCmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Thanks! I was leaning same. I had Kopech but dropped him once it became clear he wasn’t going to be getting consistent starts anytime soo .