Projected Category Distributions by Position

February 16, 2023

A ridgeline distribution plot allows you to easily compare distributions across multiple categories. For this post, I’ve created one plot for each classic 5×5 roto category and position. I used ATC projections to graph the distribution and I’ll point out a few interesting trends that we can gather from each visual. Let’s have some fun with visualizations!

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Stolen Bases

Projected ATC SB Distribution by Position

First, you may notice the left tail of this visual goes below zero. Since the ridgeline creates a smooth curve over where the bars of a histogram would be, it smooths out into an area that may not be represented by data. However, if you take your cursor and move up the zero line, you can see that there are a lot of 1B and 3B players projected for one stolen base. The same happens on the right side of each plot. ATC projects only two outfielders for 30+ stolen bases, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Jake McCarthy.

The ridgeline essentially stops at 32 (Acuña’s projection) and tails off from there. So, it’s best not to focus too much on the tails of these graphs but instead on the peaks and to the left and right of the peaks. If you do that, you may notice that there’s a wide range of base-stealers in the SS, 2B, and OF positions, but you already knew that. Instead, look at the 1B peaks and notice that you can target players projected to accumulate six or more stolen bases. Here they are:

1B with 6+ Stolen Bases

Name	Team	G	PA	AB	HR	SB
Freddie Freeman	LAD	155	675	582	25	10
Miguel Vargas	LAD	122	472	423	14	8
Seth Brown	OAK	126	494	447	22	8
Paul Goldschmidt	STL	152	650	567	30	7
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	152	657	583	35	6
Anthony Rizzo	NYY	135	571	492	26	6
Wil Myers	CIN	122	488	439	17	6

*ATC Projections

This mostly goes to show why players like Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero Jr. are all elite picks. However, you can pick up a few SBs in Rizzo and Myers without spending too much. That could be valuable on the bench. Miguel Vargas is penciled in as the second base nine-hole hitter on the Dodgers’ Roster Resource, but if he has 1B eligibility in your league, he may be a nice late-round flier.

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Batting Average

Projected ATC Average Distribution by Position

Different from stolen bases, we see that there are players all over the field who can provide high averages. However, take your cursor and move it from top to bottom along the .300 line. You’ll notice that the 1B and SS lines keep going whereas the OF, 2B, and 3B lines stop. There are a few 1B and SS players skewing the distribution to the right. Who are they?

Top 1B by Projected AVG

Name	Team	G	PA	AB	HR	R	RBI	AVG
Luis Arraez	MIA	136	573	515	6	75	54	0.302
Freddie Freeman	LAD	155	675	582	25	106	93	0.301
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	152	657	583	35	96	102	0.289
Harold Castro	COL	40	154	145	2	16	17	0.285
Paul Goldschmidt	STL	152	650	567	30	95	97	0.281
Vinnie Pasquantino	KCR	139	581	509	22	68	77	0.279
Harold Ramírez	TBR	110	442	411	8	46	52	0.278
Donovan Solano		73	287	262	5	29	30	0.274
DJ LeMahieu	NYY	110	473	417	9	59	44	0.273
Nathaniel Lowe	TEX	146	613	546	22	75	75	0.273
José Abreu	HOU	147	626	555	21	78	83	0.272

*ATC Projections

If you don’t think Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero Jr. are worth the spend (roto or salary) then what will it take? These three show up as top targets in both stolen bases and batting averages among first basemen. I wonder if they hit home runs too? But, if you want to zip when everyone else zags, look no further than Pasquantino, Lowe, and Abreu. Yes, you’re faced with a big drop-off in runs, but you still have a power/average combo at a more modest price. How about the shortstops?

Top SS by Projected AVG

Name	Team	G	PA	AB	HR	R	RBI	AVG
Trea Turner	PHI	152	663	607	22	101	81	0.292
Tim Anderson	CHW	131	576	544	14	82	55	0.291
Wander Franco	TBR	140	602	546	13	82	69	0.286
Bo Bichette	TOR	150	652	603	25	93	88	0.285
Corey Seager	TEX	143	617	546	28	84	83	0.278
Nico Hoerner	CHC	137	560	511	9	68	55	0.278
Amed Rosario	CLE	145	618	582	11	78	65	0.277
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SDP	116	497	437	31	82	81	0.277

*ATC Projections

While it’s a smaller list, there’s a lot to like. We can deduce shortstops are more likely to provide an average/speed combination and that first basemen are likely to provide a power/average combination when targeted appropriately.

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Home Runs

Projected ATC HR Distribution by Position

This time, take your cursor and drag it from the top of the visual to the bottom at the 35 mark. What I find interesting here is the power drop off at 3B. Many fantasy analysts have been writing and talking about the major drop off at the 3B position, and this visual reinforces it. First base shows up yet again as such a critical spot and OF positional players hold a lot of power beyond that 35 mark. Here are the OF and 1B players projected to hit 30 or more homeruns by ATC:

OF and 1B 30+ HR Projections

Name	Team	G	PA	AB	HR
Aaron Judge	NYY	149	645	545	43
Mike Trout	LAA	139	601	509	40
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	144	616	527	39
Pete Alonso	NYM	154	656	572	38
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	144	611	526	38
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	152	657	583	35
Matt Olson	ATL	154	657	569	35
Kyle Tucker	HOU	152	630	564	33
Mookie Betts	LAD	146	643	563	31
Byron Buxton	MIN	120	507	458	31
Paul Goldschmidt	STL	152	650	567	30
Rowdy Tellez	MIL	137	558	494	30
Juan Soto	SDP	151	664	521	30
Teoscar Hernández	SEA	139	589	540	30
Anthony Santander	BAL	141	605	548	30
Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	122	514	454	30

*ATC Projections

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Runs

Projected ATC R Distribution by Position

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RBI

Projected ATC RBI Distribution by Position

Runs and RBI come from offensively productive players and it helps when they are on good teams. These visualizations reinforce the importance of drafting top-tier 1B and 3B players. But, the distributions are a little more even. Certainly OF players are holding higher run totals, but projected RBI totals are shared fairly evenly among OF, 3B, and 1B players.

If you want a larger summary of what to glean from these distributions it’s that waiting on corner infielders is not recommended, that you can double up on speed and batting average from shortstops, and power doesn’t have to come with empty stolen base potential and that there is simply more production in total to be found in the OF position.