Preparing For Launch

The runs have been raining down as of late, at least relative to the spongeball square offenses that we’ve had to suffer through during the first part of the season. Whether this is due to the increasing temperatures decreasing the overall effects that league-wide humidors have wrought, or to MLB more nefariously (definitely not) switching out the baseballs, doesn’t matter as much.

What does matter is that these dongs of summer are finally giving fantasy managers a respite in their offensive categories. With that in mind, let’s take some different looks at the so-called power hitters that have hurt their drafters the most through the first third of the season, starting with the ones most likely to turn things around.

We’ll split 2022 into two periods consisting of the first month of the season (which annoyingly started late so we have to steal a week from May) and the time since (with stats through June 12). Besides the raw home run rates, we’ll also look at the percentile ranks, as the raw rates are being significantly pushed on by the changes in the offensive environment. But with percentile ranks we can see how their rates have changed relative to their peers, framing the changes in way that are more separated from the overall drops in power.

Players will be grouped further as we go along but let’s start simply with just the players who’ve seen a drop in how often they’re hitting home runs compared to 2021. IE. You used to go deep this often but are completely tanking your fantasy value by now only going deep that often.

Here are the 77 players in 2022 who’ve seen a minimum 10-point drop in their HR per PA rates percentile ranks compared to in 2021:

2021-2022 Largest Decreases in HR Rate
Player 2021 PA 2022 PA 2021 HR/PA 2022 HR/PA HR/PA +/- 2021 Percentile Rank 2022 Percentile Rank Rank +/-
Yasmani Grandal 375 201 .061 .010 -.051 93 12 -82
Austin Meadows 591 135 .046 .000 -.046 76 0 -75
Javier Báez 547 194 .057 .015 -.041 89 23 -67
Avisaíl García 515 197 .056 .015 -.041 87 22 -66
Elias Díaz 371 155 .049 .013 -.036 80 16 -64
Tyler O’Neill 537 159 .063 .019 -.044 95 32 -63
Franmil Reyes 466 145 .064 .021 -.044 96 37 -59
Jesse Winker 485 255 .049 .016 -.034 80 23 -57
Max Muncy 592 184 .061 .022 -.039 93 39 -54
Marcus Semien 724 259 .062 .023 -.039 94 42 -52
Robbie Grossman 671 173 .034 .000 -.034 51 0 -51
AJ Pollock 422 159 .050 .019 -.031 81 32 -49
Teoscar Hernández 595 145 .054 .021 -.033 85 37 -48
Adam Duvall 555 222 .068 .027 -.041 98 51 -47
César Hernández 637 276 .033 .000 -.033 47 0 -47
Joey Votto 533 180 .068 .028 -.040 97 52 -45
Andrew McCutchen 574 210 .047 .019 -.028 78 33 -44
Justin Turner 612 231 .044 .017 -.027 72 28 -44
Freddie Freeman 695 269 .045 .019 -.026 74 30 -43
Eduardo Escobar 599 248 .047 .020 -.027 77 35 -41
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 541 210 .039 .014 -.025 61 20 -41
Wil Myers 500 134 .034 .007 -.027 50 9 -41
Nick Castellanos 585 249 .058 .028 -.030 92 53 -39
Darin Ruf 러프 312 203 .051 .025 -.027 83 47 -36
Ryan McMahon 596 244 .039 .016 -.022 60 25 -35
Matt Olson 673 270 .058 .030 -.028 91 57 -34
Rafael Ortega 330 167 .033 .012 -.021 48 15 -33
Andrew Benintendi 538 244 .032 .008 -.023 44 11 -33
Bobby Dalbec 453 176 .055 .028 -.027 87 54 -33
Ramón Laureano 378 127 .037 .016 -.021 56 24 -32
Cedric Mullins 675 266 .044 .023 -.022 73 41 -32
Brandon Belt 381 120 .076 .033 -.043 100 68 -32
Josh Donaldson 543 191 .048 .026 -.022 79 48 -31
Ketel Marte 374 235 .037 .017 -.020 58 27 -31
Ryan Jeffers 293 149 .048 .027 -.021 79 49 -30
Jonathan Villar 505 127 .036 .016 -.020 54 24 -30
Lorenzo Cain 286 148 .028 .007 -.021 37 7 -30
Jorge Polanco 644 250 .051 .028 -.023 82 53 -30
Nelson Cruz 584 235 .055 .030 -.025 86 57 -29
Josh Bell 568 256 .048 .027 -.020 79 51 -27
Brandon Crawford 549 212 .044 .024 -.020 70 43 -27
J.T. Realmuto 537 217 .032 .014 -.018 44 18 -26
Dylan Carlson 619 166 .029 .012 -.017 41 15 -25
Enrique Hernández 585 238 .034 .017 -.017 51 27 -24
Garrett Cooper 250 211 .036 .019 -.017 54 32 -22
Andy Ibáñez 272 128 .026 .008 -.018 33 11 -22
Mike Zunino 375 123 .088 .041 -.047 100 78 -22
Yoshi Tsutsugo 262 135 .031 .015 -.016 43 21 -22
Brandon Lowe 615 133 .063 .038 -.026 95 74 -21
José Abreu 659 245 .046 .029 -.017 75 54 -21
Harrison Bader 401 214 .040 .023 -.017 62 42 -20
Trea Turner 646 260 .043 .027 -.016 69 50 -19
Mike Yastrzemski 532 199 .047 .030 -.017 77 58 -19
Miguel Cabrera 526 196 .029 .015 -.013 40 22 -18
Seth Brown 307 196 .065 .041 -.024 96 78 -18
Ian Happ 535 230 .047 .030 -.016 76 59 -17
Ronald Acuña Jr. 360 145 .067 .041 -.025 96 80 -17
Amed Rosario 588 214 .019 .000 -.019 17 0 -17
Tony Kemp 397 225 .020 .004 -.016 21 5 -16
Randal Grichuk 545 195 .040 .026 -.015 64 47 -16
Brett Phillips 292 133 .045 .030 -.014 73 58 -15
Tucker Barnhart 388 129 .018 .000 -.018 15 0 -15
Xander Bogaerts 603 248 .038 .024 -.014 59 44 -15
José Iglesias 511 190 .018 .000 -.018 15 0 -15
Frank Schwindel 259 230 .054 .035 -.019 85 71 -15
Salvador Perez 665 204 .072 .044 -.028 99 84 -14
Yuli Gurriel 605 215 .025 .014 -.011 31 19 -12
Carlos Santana 659 173 .029 .017 -.011 40 28 -12
Willi Castro 450 135 .020 .007 -.013 20 8 -12
Rhys Hoskins 443 254 .061 .043 -.018 93 82 -11
Dansby Swanson 653 245 .041 .029 -.013 65 54 -11
Jacob Stallings 427 155 .019 .006 -.012 18 7 -11
Luis Robert 296 195 .044 .031 -.013 71 61 -11
Trent Grisham 527 226 .028 .018 -.011 39 29 -10
Gary Sánchez 440 189 .052 .037 -.015 84 73 -10
Ozzie Albies 686 260 .044 .031 -.013 70 61 -10

Franmil Reyes, CLE

  • 2021: 30 HR – .064 HR per PA (96th percentile)
  • 2022: 3 HR – .021 HR per PA (37th percentile)

Currently, on the IL with a hamstring strain, Franmil Reyes has a case for the power disappointment of the year. Three? Just three home runs?? How exactly does that track with his franimilistic past? But besides the decrease in his actual home run output, more concerning were the very significant changes in his top-end exit velocities compared to last season – a year in which they had already dropped in the second half.

In 2021, Reyes dropped from a 20.5% Brl% in the first half, to a 14.2% Brl% in the second half, with his Air% average exit velocity also dropping by 1.4 mph to 97.3 mph. Given that, it was natural to worry when he came out firing a 12.0% Brl% in the first period of 2022, with a 95.3 mph Air% average EV (down another 2 mph from the second half of 2021) and an elite 56% Air% (100+ mph) that had dropped to 39.1%. Not great.

But have hope! Because while Reyes only has 47 PA (with 27 BBE) in our second period (going on the IL on May 25), there were signs that the boomstick was waking up prior to his injury, even though he hasn’t hit a home run since May 7. However, even with a lack of jacks, Reyes posted a 22.2% Brl%, 103.0 mph Air% average EV, and a 66.7% Air% (100+ mph) over that short period – for context, those numbers, if qualified, would all be the best in baseball. It may be a small sample but those are the type of giant signs of life that can portend future power and, in Reyes’s case, wouldn’t be that far off from what we’ve seen in the very recent past.

It’s a shame that he had to get hurt when he did but all that should do is drive his price lower if one was inclined to make a move for him, with Reyes starting a rehab assignment on June 13. Coming back to warmer weather and higher scoring, the Franimal is one of my favorite picks to go on a summer power binge.

Adam Duvall, ATL

  • 2021: 38 HR – .068 HR per PA (98th percentile)
  • 2022: 6 HR – .027 HR per PA (51st percentile)

Adam Duvall crushed bombs in 2021. He crushed them in the first half (.066 HR/PA). He crushed them even more (.072 HR/PA) in the second half. The bugaboo, though, is his rate of hitting home runs may have gone up in the second half but some key exit velocities were going the other way.

Duvall averaged 96.0 mph on balls hit in the air in the first half of 2021 but came in at 93.5 mph in the second, with his Air% (100+ mph) also dropping five points. And things were down again in the first month of 2022, cratering down to a 91.2 mph Air% average EV and a 28.6% Air% (100+ mph). Those are some significant drops, going from rates in the top 10-15% down to ones below the 50th percentile.

While not up to the level of what he was clocking in the first half of 2021 (or even the second half), Duvall has definitely upped his big EVs as of late. He has a 14.3% Brl% in the second period (6.1% Brl% in the first period) of 2022, with a 94.1 mph Air% EV that is up three ticks, and a 35.7% Air% (100+ mph) is up seven points.

Duvall’s .045 HR/PA in the second period still isn’t what it was last year but things are finally at least heating up, with his 2-HR game on Sunday giving him a total of four* in his past seven games. And as the weather has been heating up, Duvall isn’t the only Brave popping off lately – Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley  also have 4 HR each in June, with Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud, and William Contreras each kicking in another two. I’m not banking on a return to what he gave us in 2021 but his home rates don’t have to rise that much for Duvall to return a lot of powerful value ROS.

*correction: after hitting another one on Monday night, you can make that 5 HR in past eight games.

Gary Sanchez, NYY

  • 2021: 23 HR – .052 HR per PA (84th percentile)
  • 2022: 3 HR – .037 HR per PA (73rd percentile)

We’ll get into reasons to believe in Sanchez’s power returning to form but first, a note about his home run rates being a good example of how looking at percentile ranks can give us more information than just looking at the raw rates.

To get a sense of how the overall texture of home run rates has changed, notice that Sanchez’s rate in 2022 has fallen by 30% compared to 2021 but that has only moved him down 11 percentile points. IE. His home run rate would have looked pretty paltry in previous seasons but looks more impressive when judged through the lens of 2022’s offensive environment. For added context, his .037 HR/PA (73rd percentile) in 2022 would have slotted in around the 55th percentile in 2021 but on the flip side, his .052 HR/PA (84th percentile) from 2021 would rank in the 93rd percentile this season.

Like Reyes and Duvall, Sanchez also saw big drops in exit velocities over the second half of 2022 before some dropped even further at the start of 2022. But like the aforementioned pair, Sanchez has also rebounded in the second part of 2022. His Air% average EV of 97.4 mph is up from 93.7 mph in the first period of this season (which was around the same in the second half of last season), and is even topping his 96.5 mph mark from the first half of 2021. And an 11.4% Brl% from the first month has now been running at an elite 19.5% Brl% ever since.

Moving beyond the exit velocities, though, where Sanchez is hitting the ball has also been moving in a power-friendly direction. While still not north of 50% as it’s been the past two years, his 46.8% Pull% in the second period is up from 38.6% in the first but the launch angles are where the real goodness is, as Gary has tightened things up in a real way.

At first glance, the changes in his average launch angle between our two periods don’t seem very notable, with Sanchez only decreasing from 20.1 degrees to 17.2 degrees. But this is a great example of how looking at more than average LA can lead to further insight, just as looking at different subsets of exit velocity is more informative than just looking at average EV.

Sanchez’s average LA may have only dropped three degrees but this change seems more significant when looking at his distributions between the two periods:

Immediately, you can notice that Sanchez’s hits in the second period are coming from angles that are way more friendly for power, with a majority coming in the 15-20 degree range, compared to sub-10 degrees in the first period. But in baseball, just as in life, we shouldn’t just focus on the positive results and neglect what’s happening in the negative space.

In order words, it’s not just what mistakes you make, it’s also how you’re making them. And in Sanchez’s case, most of his “mistakes” (outs) early in the season were being made in ways that they’re almost guaranteed to be self-fulfilling.

In the first period, Sanchez’s angles were such that they rendered his exit velocities moot, in regards to power. Like a bizzaro three-true outcomes of batted balls, a majority of his hits came at angles unlikely to generate enough loft to leave the park, and most of his outs were either pounded into the ground or skyed way too high to ultimately be damaging. But the tighter spread in the second period is apparent, with a majority of his batted balls (both hits and outs) coming in a range of angles that aren’t (almost necessarily) going to be outs.

Sanchez isn’t just hitting the ball harder, he’s also hitting it smarter in the second period of 2022 – more pulls, more balls in the air, more exit velocity, and at better angles. This is a recipe for powerful success. And while not specifically related, can we at least take a moment to appreciate his .213 AVG?

Sure, maybe that doesn’t seem impressive but relative to his sub-.200 history, a .213 AVG for Gary Sanchez is basically a gentleman’s .230.





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Another Old Guymember
1 year ago

This article was much appreciated. What is your take on Austin Meadows? Is the loss of power due to his vertigo issue, or is something deeper going on? I am not sure I believed in his two largest homerun seasons being his normal, but zero homers this year is a headscratcher?