Power Up 2018 — Who Would Benefit From More Pulled Fly Balls? — A Review
In early February, I essentially listed hitters who have posted low fly ball pull percentages. However, I added two important additional filters to finalize the list — above average Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist. The idea here is that they already have the raw power to hit their balls out of the park, but they just need to hit those balls more to the pull side where the fences are closer. These are the guys I considered potentially benefiting most from more pulled flies. Let’s find out whether they did indeed increase their FB Pull% and if that jump also fueled a spike in HR/FB rate.
| Player | 2017 FB Pull% | 2018 FB Pull% | FB Pull% Diff | 2017 HR/FB | 2018 HR/FB | HR/FB Diff | Same Direction? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Avila | 7.7% | 19.4% | 11.7% | 21.5% | 22.6% | 1.1% | Y |
| Nick Williams | 10.0% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 20.0% | 18.1% | -1.9% | N |
| Domingo Santana | 10.3% | 15.8% | 5.5% | 30.9% | 13.2% | -17.7% | N |
| Derek Fisher | 10.5% | 9.1% | -1.4% | 26.3% | 36.4% | 10.1% | N |
| Eric Hosmer | 10.8% | 18.3% | 7.5% | 22.5% | 19.4% | -3.1% | N |
| Bradley Zimmer | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5% | 13.1% | 12.5% | -0.6% | Y |
| Corey Seager | 11.8% | 8.7% | -3.1% | 16.2% | 8.7% | -7.5% | Y |
| Khris Davis | 11.9% | 15.6% | 3.7% | 26.9% | 24.1% | -2.8% | N |
| Carlos Correa | 12.3% | 16.7% | 4.4% | 22.6% | 13.9% | -8.7% | N |
| Brandon Nimmo | 12.8% | 33.0% | 20.2% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 4.7% | Y |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 13.0% | 9.7% | -3.3% | 20.4% | 18.6% | -1.8% | Y |
| Robinson Cano | 13.5% | 23.1% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 12.8% | -1.9% | N |
| Nicholas Castellanos | 13.7% | 20.7% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 13.6% | -0.7% | N |
| Michael Conforto | 14.1% | 23.2% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 19.7% | -7.6% | N |
| Jason Castro | 14.5% | 25.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 8.3% | -3.7% | N |
| Freddie Freeman | 14.9% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 19.9% | 14.9% | -5.0% | N |
| Chris Taylor | 15.0% | 15.7% | 0.7% | 15.8% | 12.1% | -3.7% | N |
| Ryon Healy | 15.7% | 23.7% | 8.0% | 15.1% | 17.3% | 2.2% | Y |
| Joey Votto | 15.8% | 15.9% | 0.1% | 19.7% | 9.5% | -10.2% | N |
| Unweighted Avgs | 12.6% | 17.1% | 4.5% | 19.6% | 16.5% | -3.1% |
Well those are some awful results! The most important column is the last, “Same Direction?”, which is Y if FB Pull% and HR/FB rate moved in the same direction and N if it didn’t. It’s pretty shocking that just six of the 19 players posted rates that moved in the same direction.
You’ll notice that using a simple, unweighted, average, the group did indeed raise their FB Pull% by 4.5%. However, their HR/FB rate fell by 3.1%! Obviously, this is a simplified analysis as FB Pull% isn’t the only skill driving HR/FB rate. You still need to hit it hard and at the right vertical angle for the ball to clear the fence. It’s likely the majority of the guys who pulled their flies more often, but still saw a decline in HR/FB rate, suffered a drop in either Brls/True FB, Avg FB Dist, or both.
What I find interesting is that a whopping 15 of the 19 hitters actually improved their FB Pull%, which serves as another reminder that it’s always smart to project skill metrics to move toward the league average from the extremes.
By far, the most significant FB Pull% improver was Brandon Nimmo. He boosted his rate by more than 20%. Sure enough, he was one of just four that enjoyed a HR/FB rate jump.
Somehow, Derek Fisher led the list in HR/FB rate improvement (though that came over a small sample size of just 79 at-bats this season), despite posting an even lower FB Pull% than the low mark he posted in 2017. Seriously, how does one hit 36.4% of his flies over the fence when you’re only pulling those flies 9.1% of the time?! That’s actually a very easy answer — he was absolutely monstrous when it came to hitting barrels and hitting those fly balls far. The Astros are loaded with talent, but if he ever gets a chance to play full-time with the guarantee his team doesn’t demote him after a slumpy two weeks, I’m all over him.
I knew Domingo Santana wasn’t going to come close to his over 30% HR/FB rate of 2017, but I didn’t expect regression this severe. I’m sure his inconsistent playing time played a role, but it’s nice to see a solid increase in FB Pull%, even if it still remains well below the league average. If he gets another chance at every day at-bats, he’ll now likely come cheaply and become a nice potential profit play.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Is some of this the less juiced ball?