The Unemployment Line

Fantasy waiver wires have been closed for over a month, and real world free agency is about to begin. Major league clubs are “better” than ever at hunting for value. They’ve all developed similar models for evaluating players which has left several notable free agents on the dole in recent seasons. The 2018-2019 winter is scripted to break the trends. Even with Clayton Kershaw already off the market, there’s a healthy supply of star and superstar talent available. But what about ordinary folk? Some of them will be left bat in hand.

An obvious place to kick off the search is the deepest position – second base. A quintet of DJ LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie, and Daniel Murphy headline a group that also includes good-not-great players like Josh Harrison, Ian Kinsler, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Daniel Descalso. That’s 10 starting caliber second basemen. Looking around the league, there are not 10 teams hunting for the position. I’m not sure there are five teams that feel like they must sign a second baseman. Possibly the most needy team is the Red Sox who would have to shunt Dustin Pedroia to the side if they want to upgrade the position.

The obvious solution for these players is to shift to other positions. Gonzalez is a true utility guy. Descalso can fake it all over the field. Dozier, Lowrie, Harrison, Walker, and Cabrera can all line up at third base. Cabrera can sort of play shortstop too. Murphy, if listed among first base free agents, would be the top available player at the position.

So we can be reasonably confident all these second basemen will find some kind of role. Descalso in particular will probably be signed as a backup despite his mini-breakout. Walker might struggle to find a suitable job. The rest very well could start. A few recognizable names – Brad Miller, Jose Reyes, and Brandon Phillips probably won’t be offered major league deals. Logan Forsythe will be a backup.

Second base has a trickle down effect to other infield spots. First basemen like Lucas Duda, Joe Mauer, Mark Reynolds, Danny Valencia, and Hanley Ramirez all have uphill battles for an Opening Day roster slot. Teams will probably opt to convert players from other positions before they guarantee these guys money. They’re all in their mid-to-late 30s.

On the left side of the infield, Alcides Escobar should finally be sent packing to Triple-A where he belongs. Adeiny Hechavarria is at some risk too – not that we ever rostered him for offense. Chase Headley and Luis Valbuena were cut during the 2018 campaign and never re-signed. Things aren’t looking too hot for them.

Some older outfielders who are accustomed to an everyday role and a healthy salary may be frozen out if they draw a hard line. Think Hunter Pence, Carlos Gomez, and Adam Jones. For the most part, any platoonable outfielder – whether we’re talking a handedness or defensive platoon – will find some kind of job. In my estimation, only Chris Young, Matt Joyce, and Brandon Guyer are in danger of completely slipping through the cracks – at least among formerly fantasy relevant players. Others such as Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Gerardo Parra, Pence, and Gomez probably won’t play enough to help fantasy owners.

The good news, sort of, is that there’s never any shortage of demand for pitchers. The way teams use starters may change, but they’ll always need experienced arms with a chance to rebound. So many veterans improved this season by implementing repertoire changes. For some, it was a matter of using high fastballs and curves. Others buffed their slider usage and stopped throwing sinkers. The ol’ sinker-slider profile abruptly died after lingering at least half a decade too long. Half of my offseason analysis after the 2013 season consisted of “so-and-so should never throw his sinker.” That was still true as recently as last winter.

The consequence is that guys who might otherwise disappear – think Brett Anderson, Yovani Gallardo, Jason Hammel, Matt Moore, and Martin Perez – will find employment. Hell, even Edwin Jackson had a baffling good 2018 campaign (he’s a free agent too). If EJax can do it, so can any formerly successful major leaguer.

The part we’re missing is the trickle down effect. We talked about the Red Sox perhaps signing a second baseman to replace Pedroia. Less obvious moves will be made that obsolete other meaningful fantasy contributors. Remember when the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain out of nowhere, thus obsoleting Domingo Santana? There will be equivalent moves this winter. Keep an eye on the second base free agents in particular – they’re going to cause some serious waves.