Power Surgers: Early Season ISO Risers

This post is coming way too early. According to past research, ISO takes 550 plate appearances to stabilize, the highest number required of the various statistics studied. However, waiting until near the end of the season to tell you whose early season power increases were sustainable is, well, kind of pointless. So as usual when analyzing players this early in the season, we have to use what we have, and that means trying to draw some conclusions from such tiny sample sizes. Since I love to compare players to themselves from previous seasons, here are the top 10 hitters with increased ISO marks versus 2010.

I never truly believed that Troy Tulowitzki had as much power as he had shown in 2009 when his ISO jumped to .256 and HR/FB rose to 18.5%. However, he followed that performance up with a nearly identical power display in 2010. And his awesome start to 2011 is teasing us into thinking that he may have even more power than that. His FB% is currently at a career high 45.5%, which is a good sign for future home run output, though obviously his 35% HR/FB ratio is going to decline. How much, I don’t know. But it’s clear I was wrong to have doubted his power in the first place! Maybe he wasn’t so overvalued in fantasy drafts by going in the top 5, though his health is always a question mark.

Wow, Lance Berkman. Is this a buy high situation? After seeing his wOBA decline precipitously the last two seasons and various injuries cropping up on a daily basis, it was reasonable to think Berkman’s days of elite performance were over, let alone mixed league fantasy value. Is this just a sizzling hot streak or truly a sign that Berkman is healthier than ever and set to return to his glory days? He is a very interesting player to analyze in trade talks as you could make a solid argument to both buy him high or sell him high.

Joe Pawlikowski recently analyzed Asdrubal Cabrera’s increased power and opined that we could see improved numbers from Cabrera this year. A career best FB% and career worst K% do suggest that so far his plate approach has been altered, and it would not take much to best his previous high HR/FB ratio of 6.7%. He did hit 42 doubles in 2009, but aside from that, there is nothing in his statistical profile that would suggest this current power spike is sustainable.

Ian Kinsler would likely not appear on this list if not for his disappointing power last year, probably due to his ankle injury suffered during the season. The good news is that the power has returned, so fantasy owners could go back to just worrying about his health.

Russell Martin back to being a top fantasy catcher? If he does end up sustaining this rebound performance all season, he is just a reminder of how important it is to look at a hitter’s age when projecting future performance. Though Martin is coming off two straight disappointing seasons, he is still just 28 years old and theoretically should still be in his prime. He had injury issues that likely slowed him down, and better health and a better ballpark and lineup were all factors that should have made him a target in fantasy leagues. I know I know, I am saying this with hindsight, but this is still an important lesson to remember so you do not completely give up on a player when he has not even reached 30 years of age yet.

Howie Kendrick hit 13 home runs in 290 at-bats at Triple-A in 2006, and then he immediately stopped hitting for power thereafter. An increased BB% coupled with a jump in K% is an interesting sign that he has learned to wait for a better pitch to drive and is swinging harder. This would seem to support increased power production. Of course, a lowly 26.8% FB% is going to hold back his home run output, so it will remain difficult to reach even 20 home runs.