Potential HR/FB Rate Surgers – 2016 Midseason Update

It’s time for an updated list of potential HR/FB rate surgers! As usual, I scanned the batted ball distance leaderboard, matched each hitter with his HR/FB rate, and identified those hitters whose distance suggests major HR/FB rate upside.

Please be aware that the other two components of my xHR/FB rate equation are missing from this analysis. So to avoid giving wrong advice, it’s why I have stayed away from discussing the hitters in the middle of the distance ranking. Also remember that this ignores park effects, which certainly plays a role.

The above list looks rather similar to the last one I published a month and a half ago!

There’s Jose Abreu at the top again. When I published the first article, his HR/FB rate stood at a mere 12.2%. Since then, it has increased to 15%, which isn’t significant; however, that stretch includes 16 straight games without a homer from mid-May into the beginning of June. This month, his HR/FB rate is a more normal 19.2%. Tiny sample size, of course, but I’ve been advising everyone to buy Abreu for a while now and the window is quickly closing to get any sort of discount.

I considered leaving Seth Smith off the list, as the distance comes from just 19 flies + homers, which is a smaller sample than I want. But that distance is easily a career high, and above 300 feet for just the second time; his first and only other time was back in 2009 with the Rockies. At 33, it’s highly doubtful that Smith has suddenly transformed into a more powerful hitter. But if he sustains that distance and his fly ball rate rebounds, he’s going to handily outperform his Steamer RoS home run projection of eight.

My man Stephen Piscotty is back again, with a slightly lesser distance than he had posted in mid-May, but still good enough to rank 13th in baseball. His HR/FB rate has actually declined from 12.5% back then to just 10.5% now. We can’t even totally blame it on the homer suppressing ways of Busch Stadium, as his home HR/FB rate is actually slightly higher than his away mark. I thought maybe he hasn’t been pulling his fly balls like last year, but his Pull% on fly balls has jumped to 25% this season, which isn’t real high, but in respectable range. Either there’s a power surge coming or there’s something here that needs to be looked into more deeply. A guy with a 300+ distance simply doesn’t post league average HR/FB rates.

Yeah, Gerardo Parra is hurt, but he’s expected to return in early July. I was excited about the performance boost he might receive from a move to Coors Field, but so far his BABIP is down and his ISO and HR/FB rates are nearly identical. But check out that distance! It represents a career high and only the second time it has been above 300 feet. That’s the Coors effect for sure. Did you know that Parra’s distance is identical to teammate Carlos Gonzalez’s? The latter’s HR/FB rate is sitting above 20%, more than double Parra’s. Of course, Parra’s Pull% on flies is a tiny 10.2%, which certainly seems to be part of the explanation. But he was double that last year. I’d bet on improvement there and at least some sort of HR/FB rate jump the rest of the way.

This is also Kendrys Morales‘ second appearance on this list, and he has responded. Before his two homers last night, his distance and HR/FB rate has increased since my first article. There could be more to come, plus a rebound in BABIP should be on its way as well.