Potential HR/FB Rate Decliners – 2016 Midseason Update

It’s time for an updated list of potential HR/FB rate decliners! As usual, I scanned the batted ball distance leaderboard, matched each hitter with his HR/FB rate, and identified those hitters whose distance suggests major HR/FB rate downside. Yesterday, I looked at the potential surgers.

As a reminder, please be aware that the other two components of my xHR/FB rate equation are missing from this analysis. So to avoid giving wrong advice, I have stayed away from discussing the hitters in the middle of the distance ranking. Also remember that this ignores park effects, which certainly plays a role.

Jason Kipnis also topped my list from a month and a half ago, and since publishing that post, his HR/FB rate has collapsed from 16.7%. Since that post, his HR/FB rate has sat at just 8.9%, though that’s going to go up with yesterday’s home run. Given his weak distance mark, a sub-10% HR/FB rate rate is much closer to being a match. With yesterday’s home run, he has already outhomered himself from last year in half the at-bats. Heck, he’s on pace to beat his home run total from the last two years combined! But you know what’s crazy? His distance currently stands at a career low mark! These homers aren’t going to continue until he starts hitting his fly balls further.

Kole Calhoun’s distance has tumbled by 18 feet from last year. And while his HR/FB rate is down at a career low, he should consider himself quite fortunate it’s not worse. Interestingly, he’s hitting more fly balls than ever before with an improved strikeout rate. If his distance does bounce back, he could have a strong second half with those three positive factors boosting his home run total.

Colby Rasmus also made last month’s list, and his distance hasn’t budged since. His HR/FB rate has declined, as I suspected, but not too dramatically. His current distance easily represents a career low and a 12 foot drop from last season. Since he always posts such a high pull fly ball rate, his HR/FB rate mark is likely to be higher than what his distance suggests. But it shouldn’t boost it this much!

Edwin Encarnacion homered twice yesterday, so both numbers in the table will be rising after the game. Like Rasmus, Encarnacion also pulls a high rate of his fly balls, but he isn’t doing so this year any more than he has in the past. And his distance stands at the second lowest mark of his career. I don’t think a crash is imminent, but at his age and the soft distance marks during his career, it might be wiser to expect a mid-teen HR/FB rate going forward, rather than a 20% mark.

Carlos Beltran is perhaps the most confounding member of this list as the 39-year-old is enjoying a surprising power resurgence. His HR/FB has doubled from last year and the previous season, despite virtually the same distance marks. His pulled fly ball rates is the same as 2014 and just barely above his career average. There’s just no way that Beltran sustains this career best HR/FB rate, right?! I don’t use ESPN Home Run Tracker much anymore in my analysis, but Beltran’s chart is telling. Three of his home runs would have gone out of just one or zero parks based on the standardized distance (as in, he got helped by the weather), another homer would have only gone out in two parks, and yet another in just four parks. That’s already five of his 19 homers, more than a quarter of them. Remove those and his HR/FB rate drops down to 16.7%, which is much more reasonable.