Poll 2022: Which Group of Hitters Performs Better? A Review

In addition to my starting pitcher poll comparing 1st and 2nd half SIERA marks, I also polled you fine readers during the all-star break about hitters. The hitter poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into.

Below are the aggregate averages of the two groups through the pre-all-star break period. Remember that you were voting solely on 2nd half wOBA. Group A was composed of the xwOBA overperformers and B, the underperformers.

The poll results were as follows:

So even though Group A overperformed their xwOBA and also posted a significantly lower xwOBA than Group B, nearly 60% of you still believed the group would outperform the latter in wOBA over the 2nd half.

Just over 57% of you voted that Group A’s wOBA would fall between .340 and .359 over the 2nd half, which is actually a dip compared to their actual .373 mark over the season’s 1st half. However, the group did post an xwOBA on the bottom end of that range, so the majority doesn’t look out of line here.

The voting for Group B’s 2nd half wOBA was far more debatable. The consensus from 38% of you was the group would finish with a wOBA between .320 and .339, but 36% of you voted for a range between .340 and .359, the same as Group A. The majority therefore actually voted that Group B wouldn’t see much luck regression in the 2nd half toward their 1st half xwOBA, or felt like their underlying skills would decline and meet up with their actual 1st half wOBA. Whatever the case, it’s interesting to see a consensus for Group A’s 2nd half wOBA, but not for Group B.

Now on to the second half results:

Let’s start with the answers to the poll questions. Group A did indeed post a higher wOBA than Group B over the 2nd half of the season, despite once again posting a lower xwOBA. However, the degree in which each group overperformed and underperformed narrowed significantly, as did the difference in wOBA between the two groups. So regression did indeed occur in the direction expected and both groups actually saw a deterioration in their underlying skills, as their xwOBA marks declined.

Group A’s 2nd half wOBA landed right in the middle of the consensus range of .340 to .359. Good job voters! Likewise, Group B’s 2nd half wOBA finished toward the upper end of the consensus range of .320 to .339. The voters killed it with this poll, with the majority being correct on all three poll questions!

Now let’s talk specific players. What on Earth happened to C.J. Cron during the 2nd half?! From crushing it over the 1st half to posting a wOBA more than 100 points lower in the 2nd half, it was a performance to forget. Brandon Drury was a surprise 1st half breakout, but he couldn’t exactly carry it through the entire season.

On the underperformers side, Marcell Ozuna simply couldn’t get it together all year, and in the 2nd half, it was deserved, as his skills fell off a cliff. Corey Seager continued to underperform, especially on the batting average side. Alex Verdugo rebounded strongly in the 2nd half, while Christian Walker was no longer a batting average hole and enjoyed a strong all-around performance.

Seth Brown was fantastic over the 2nd half, raising his wOBA from sub-.300, while Ryan Mountcastle and Max Kepler saw their wOBA marks tumble below .300 after solid 1st halves.