Poll 2017: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better? — A Review
Once again, heading into the all-star break, I presented two lists of 10 pitchers each — both lists composed of pitchers on each side of SIERA-ERA differential. I then asked you to vote on which group, the SIERA overperformers or underperformers, would power a lower second half ERA, and which ERA range each group will land in as a group average. Amazingly, the results suggested these two groups of pitchers were identical! Both garnered between 44% and 45% of the vote to post the lower ERA, while nearly 11.5% of you couldn’t choose a side, predicting the groups would finish within .05 earned runs of each other. Furthermore, 29% voted that 4.00-4.24 would be the ERA range that both groups would settle into, with 3.75-3.99 the second highest vote-getter at 27% and 28%. Pretty crazy how close these votes were! Let’s see what actually happened.
All stats are from the second half:
| Name | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | SIERA | ERA-SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | 12.9% | 7.8% | 18.6% | 47.4% | 33.9% | 15.1% | 0.250 | 73.2% | 9.7% | 3.27 | 5.33 | -2.06 |
| Brandon McCarthy* | ||||||||||||
| Chase Anderson | 23.3% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 41.0% | 42.4% | 8.5% | 0.252 | 84.4% | 10.2% | 2.47 | 4.09 | -1.62 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 18.6% | 9.6% | 16.6% | 66.4% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 0.286 | 73.8% | 25.0% | 4.24 | 4.09 | 0.15 |
| Ervin Santana | 20.1% | 5.5% | 17.8% | 37.3% | 44.9% | 11.3% | 0.279 | 74.6% | 10.5% | 3.66 | 4.40 | -0.74 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 21.8% | 8.4% | 18.6% | 47.9% | 33.5% | 6.2% | 0.255 | 77.0% | 8.6% | 3.08 | 4.32 | -1.24 |
| Ivan Nova | 21.2% | 7.0% | 24.4% | 41.6% | 34.0% | 9.9% | 0.360 | 65.3% | 19.7% | 5.83 | 4.29 | 1.54 |
| Jason Vargas | 17.1% | 10.1% | 19.9% | 44.1% | 36.0% | 11.8% | 0.309 | 69.7% | 18.8% | 6.38 | 5.17 | 1.21 |
| Jose Urena | 15.4% | 9.5% | 19.1% | 46.7% | 34.2% | 6.8% | 0.252 | 79.9% | 15.9% | 4.10 | 5.25 | -1.15 |
| Kyle Freeland | 18.8% | 9.8% | 21.7% | 51.3% | 27.0% | 7.3% | 0.355 | 69.3% | 12.2% | 4.81 | 4.67 | 0.14 |
| Group Average | 18.5% | 8.2% | 19.2% | 46.9% | 33.9% | 8.7% | 0.286 | 74.0% | 14.5% | 4.16 | 4.66 | -0.49 |
| League Average (All Starters) | 20.8% | 8.1% | 20.8% | 43.7% | 35.5% | 9.5% | 0.300 | 72.0% | 14.0% | 4.50 | 4.47 | 0.03 |
*McCarthy didn’t pitch in the second half
| Name | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | SIERA | ERA-SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 6.0% | 10.3% | 25.5% | 45.7% | 28.7% | 3.7% | 0.261 | 73.5% | 14.8% | 4.78 | 6.47 | -1.69 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 21.6% | 5.0% | 18.7% | 39.3% | 42.0% | 9.1% | 0.278 | 68.1% | 10.9% | 4.22 | 4.11 | 0.11 |
| Josh Tomlin | 21.2% | 1.6% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 10.7% | 0.289 | 78.8% | 10.7% | 3.19 | 3.82 | -0.63 |
| Kevin Gausman | 26.2% | 7.7% | 19.7% | 44.5% | 35.7% | 8.2% | 0.289 | 85.4% | 17.6% | 3.41 | 3.80 | -0.39 |
| Kyle Gibson | 22.1% | 6.9% | 24.1% | 50.9% | 25.0% | 9.1% | 0.319 | 77.1% | 14.5% | 3.76 | 3.93 | -0.17 |
| Marco Estrada | 18.1% | 8.8% | 17.8% | 28.4% | 53.8% | 21.1% | 0.262 | 71.7% | 9.9% | 4.76 | 5.29 | -0.53 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 29.6% | 4.6% | 18.9% | 49.8% | 31.3% | 11.1% | 0.289 | 72.1% | 19.0% | 3.77 | 3.03 | 0.74 |
| Matt Moore | 19.9% | 7.8% | 19.8% | 38.3% | 41.9% | 14.7% | 0.281 | 68.0% | 12.6% | 4.86 | 4.63 | 0.23 |
| Trevor Bauer | 26.7% | 7.5% | 22.5% | 45.4% | 32.2% | 11.0% | 0.338 | 87.1% | 15.1% | 3.01 | 3.69 | -0.68 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 24.5% | 5.8% | 23.4% | 41.0% | 35.6% | 4.5% | 0.408 | 68.7% | 20.9% | 7.02 | 3.81 | 3.21 |
| Group Average | 21.6% | 6.6% | 21.1% | 42.7% | 36.2% | 10.3% | 0.301 | 75.9% | 14.8% | 4.19 | 4.13 | 0.07 |
| League Average (All Starters) | 20.8% | 8.1% | 20.8% | 43.7% | 35.5% | 9.5% | 0.300 | 72.0% | 14.0% | 4.50 | 4.47 | 0.03 |
Would you look at that, it was essentially a dead heat! Group A outperformed Group B by the slimmest of margins, posting an ERA just .03 earned runs better, making the 11.5% that voted for a near tie the victors.
In the first half, Group B posted stronger skills as per SIERA, while posting a significantly better strikeout rate. The second half was no different, as Group A’s skills were just as bad, while Group B improved theirs slightly, and also increased their strikeout rate even higher. Once again, Group A suppressed line drives better than Group B, which most certainly helps explains the meaningful 0.15 gap in BABIP. This is even more interesting considering Group A induced more grounders and fewer pop-ups, both of which should boost BABIP, not reduce it.
Both groups posted near identical HR/FB rates, while Group B actually stranded a higher percentage of runners (LOB%). Both of those metrics totally reversed course from the first half. During that period, A posted a ridiculous 80.5% LOB% to B’s lowly 68.1% mark, while A kept their fly balls in the park to the tune of an 11% HR/FB rate, while B didn’t enjoy such luck, posting a 16% mark. This is precisely why we call these the “luck metrics”. Over small samples, fortune and randomness play a large role. But more often than not, they even themselves out, which is what we saw in the second half.
It’s doubtful fantasy owners will be opening their wallets for Andrew Cashner next season, but Chase Anderson is a name whose breakout many are going to believe. Don’t be that person. He was one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and owns a SIERA above 4.00 for the season. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman figured out how to be good again in the second half, but his season line still looks ugly. He’ll either be a trendy sleeper that pushes up his price or a bargain. And can you believe Ubaldo Jimenez posted a sub-4.00 SIERA in the second half?! It’s too bad seemingly every ball in play fell for a hit and fly ball sailed over the wall.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Just did a double take on that Wainwright 6% K%…..