Podhorzer’s 2025 LABR Mixed Draft Recap

On Feb 25, the competitors of the LABR Mixed draft virtually congregated for our annual February 15-team draft. Drafts this early are challenging. On the one hand, the early timing benefits the prepared and the more highly skilled. On the other hand, there remains a great many unknowns that we need to make educated guesses on at best, and complete shots in the dark on at worst. Position battles either haven’t begun or just began and all the excitement about pitchers throwing new pitches and the velocity spikes they are experiencing typically aren’t even known yet, taking away information we would normally use in our player evaluations. In addition, the longer time between the draft and opening day means more opportunity for injuries to decimate your roster before the season even begins (Gerrit Cole’s new owner, who drafted him 48th overall, is already shaking his head)!

Before sharing my team, I’ll quickly remind you of my “strategy”. I put that word in quotes because even after more than 20 years of playing fantasy baseball, I’m still not sure I understand what it means to have a draft or auction strategy. Isn’t everyone trying to maximize the value of their team? The only way to do that is to buy as many players at a discount to their projected value, at as large a discount to that projected value, as possible, while keeping categorical balance in mind (you probably shouldn’t buy 300 steals and only 150 home runs, even if you think you can easily make trades).

Of course, trying to maximize the projected value of your drafted roster wouldn’t be successful if everyone valued players exactly the same way (or used the same projections). However, the good news is that we are unlikely to all use the same projections, and even if we did, we still wouldn’t calculate the same values given the same projections. It’s rare that everyone agrees on the value of a particular player, so those disagreements will allow you to buy the players you project to earn more than your leaguemates do. Then you just need to be right and the championship is all yours!

So that’s how I approach snake drafts (and auctions too). Now let’s get to the results. I’ll present my roster two ways — in pick order and then by position.

I drafted out of the four hole this year and although I can’t remember exactly which slots I’ve drafted from in past seasons, I’m pretty sure it’s been rare to nab a top four pick. As is typically the case, there are larger gaps in value between the top players, while the gaps then narrow as we progress through the draft. After the top four, I valued seven hitters within $2.50 of each other! That essentially means these names are interchangeable, so you can definitely go with personal preference assuming the top four are selected as expected.

I’m never sure what the most engaging format for these draft/auction reviews is, so I’ll go with a bullet point quick hits kinda review, loosely following my “By Position” table.

• First of all, this is a fun team. Like I’m not always happy with my roster at the end of drafts and auctions, even if the projected value/stats suggest I should be, but this is not the case here. You might notice a theme, as I seemingly drafted a ton of rebound type candidates. That makes sense because players coming off down years are often undervalued.
• If you know me, you might remember that I’ve always paid for catchers. If you calculate values properly, you’ll find they get a significant boost solely because of the position they qualify for. The free agent catcher pool is terrible and far worse than at any other position, so their stats above replacement have to account for this, increasing the value of these hitters compared to those with the same projected stats at a different position. That said, catchers are rarely drafted at their properly position adjusted projected value. So rather than guess when the league is going to deem the top catcher finally being worthy of a pick, I wait for the first catcher to go and then try to get the most discounted top guy. That’s how I ended up with the ageless Salvador Perez in the seventh round. Of course, I decided to hedge my catcher bets by waiting a looooong time on my second catcher.
• There were a number of cheaper first basemen I thought had a good shot of outperforming both their projections and their ADP, so I knew it was a position I didn’t mind missing out on the top crop. Though Paul Goldschmidt has shown clear signs of aging and skills degradation, I love him in his new situation. Yankee Stadium’s right-handed HR park factor sits at 120, versus just a 93 mark for Busch Stadium, which could help reverse his HR/FB rate decline. Furthermore, he’s slated to hit cleanup right now, which should afford him loads of RBI and runs scored chances.
• No, I wasn’t targeting Nolan Arenado, but can it get any worse?! There’s not much downside at pick 207, particularly given that he’s still expected to hit cleanup. There’s also always the chance he does get traded at some point, likely to a team that plays half its games in a better home run park, but that wasn’t on my mind when I drafted him.
• Remember how exciting a prospect Andrew Vaughn was?! He’s been consistently meh, but is entering his age 27 season and already owns some solid skills, including Statcast metrics hinting at serious HR/FB rate upside. It would surprise no one if he finally had that breakout year, but he doesn’t need to at pick 267.
• LOL, Ketel Marte is exactly the type of player I would never expect to roster this year, but his Statcast metrics did support the outburst. No one expects a repeat though, so hopefully even with expected regression, he’ll earn this price.
• Woot, I feel like Elly De La Cruz is one of the most fun players a fantasy owner could own and I knew he’d be mine unless one of the clear-cut top three fell to me instead.
• I have no earth-shattering thoughts about Gleyber Torres, but I’ve now also rostered him in my local league auction that took place this past Saturday, so go Gleyber go!
• I totes forgot I had also drafted Michael Harris II in last year’s LABR draft, but then I selected him in round two, 23rd overall, so he was unsurprisingly cheaper this year. I had hoped his ADP would fall even further this year and wasn’t thrilled with this pick, but I always struggle deciding who to pick in rounds two to five or so for some reason. Better health should give him 20/20 potential.
• My gosh, Luis Robert Jr. was a massive disappointment last year. That’s great news for those who like buying low. Given that he’s entering his age 27 season, still owns serious power and speed, there’s big rebound potential.
• I absolutely couldn’t resist the upside of Mike Trout at pick 124! Obviously, this is a complete crapshoot given his consistent health woes, but his offensive skills haven’t deteriorated much, if at all. Please stay healthy, please stay healthy, please stay healthy.
• Josh Lowe + George M. Steinbrenner Field = love.
• Between injury, Nolan Jones was a disaster last year. But, he still owns power, speed, and plays half his games at Coors Field. Don’t forget he went 20/20 in 2023 over just 424 PAs.
• You want proof I put my money where my mouth is? I included MJ Melendez in my $14 offense, which I wrote two days before I actually drafted him in LABR. At pick 334, there weren’t a whole lot of hitters that excited me with any semblance of upside like he did.
• Pitching time! Perhaps the most shocking thing about my draft is that I took starting pitchers with back-to-back picks in the fourth and fifth round. That’s crazy for a Podhorzer team! I usually go relatively cheap on pitching, but pitchers go so dang early in this league (especially closers) that I’d end up with ones across the categories if I drafted my first starter when I truly wanted to. So generally when none of the hitters stand out when it’s my pick, I feel like it’s time to go with a starter, and I was happy with the two names I ended up with.
• I hated the Robert Suarez pick at the time and still hate it now, but it’s what happens when closers fly off the board early. I hate to pay for closers, but given that saves is a category, you either have to follow suit, or play free agency like a hawk and hope to win multiple bids during the season. That’s too risky, so I drafted a guy who has pretty strong job security, at least for now, despite underwhelming skills. On the opposite end, I’m giving David Bednar a mulligan and hoping his skills rebound after a disastrous year.
• After shocking the world with two starters in the fourth and fifth, I returned to my game by not drafting my third starter until round 12. Injury cost Kodai Senga nearly all of last season, so a healthy year could turn him into an absolute bargain at this price.
• Finally, it was time to start picking off all the pitchers I really liked given the limited early spring training info we had at the time:

• Jesus Luzardo – velocity rebound off last year’s low, with the hope that better health brings performance closer to his 2022 and 2023 seasons
• Triston McKenzie – spring results over a tiny sample have been awful, but velocity way up, suggesting that he’s fully healthy and his pre-2023 strikeout rate could potentially return
• Kenta Maeda – velocity up at levels he hasn’t posted since 2020, plus ranks fourth among 46 pitchers in spring SwStk% and second in strikeout rate, over a tiny sample; his contract should give him leg up on rotation spot, especially given how he’s throwing

• I also did something fun, at least to me, by deciding it was worth speculating on injury stashes Shane Bieber and Eury Perez in rounds 24 and on, rather than filling a roster slot with mediocrity I’m probably dropping in a week or two anyway.

Let’s hope this squad performs better than the one I drafted last season!