Pod vs Steamer — Stolen Base Downside: A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my stolen base upside guys, after comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer projections in the preseason. Today, I’ll review my downside guys. Let’s see how they performed.

Well gosh darn, another big performance for the Pod Projections!

Boy did Steamer and I disagree on George Springer. One of the reasons Steamer was more bullish on the stolen base front was due to a higher projected OBP. Springer ended up posting the lowest OBP of his career since his 2014 debut. Outside the OBP difference, I couldn’t figure out why the system forecasted such a stolen base rebound. In my experience, when young power hitters who at one time stole a bunch of bases age and suddenly stop stealing bases, they don’t return to base-thievery again, except perhaps in rare instances. This is especially true when the player in question was never a very successful basestealer to begin with, like in this case.

I was pretty nervous about my Ronald Acuna Jr. projection as the hype became deafening given his power/speed combo. Even though he destroyed both our OBP projections, I almost perfectly nailed his PA/SB forecast. He clearly has above average speed, so it’s anyone’s guess whether he decides to run more or not.

Eddie Rosario was a terrible basestealer in 2017, and because of that, I figured he’d stop running. And stop running is indeed what happened, as he reduced his stolen base attempts from 17 to just 10 in nearly the same number of plate appearances with a similar OBP.

Yasiel Puig’s stolen base success rate and his willingness to run had been all over the map. So projecting his stolen base total for 2018 was essentially a dart throw. We both overestimated his OBP and underestimated his willingness to run. Puig would have performed even better if he got on base more often, and closer to his 2017 rate.

Popular sleeper Raimel Tapia recorded just 27 plate appearances and didn’t even attempt a steal.

So Leonys Martin just stopped running, even though his OBP rebounded to a level finally acceptable to be an every day starter. His Spd score declined, but still remained a bit above average, but he’s now over 30. Perhaps a small rebound in 2019?

Even a career best OBP wasn’t enough to stave off regression for Andrelton Simmons. I was skeptical of his sudden 2017 speed outburst and almost nailed his regression back to previous levels. Just a reminder that when a not-particularly-fast dude suddenly decides to run in his late 20s, its highly unlikely to last.

If I told you that Ozzie Albies would finish the season with totals of 24 and 14 in the homers and steals category, but not necessarily in that order, you would all assume the 24 was in steals and 14 in homers. This is especially true given that he was slapped with scouting grades of 20 Game Power and 70 Speed. Oops, how things can change on a dime. He even underperformed my pessimistic projection, but some of that was due to a disappointing OBP, well below both systems’ forecasts. I’d bet on the gap between his homer and stolen base total narrowing in 2019.

Only sometimes a respectable basestealer, I figured there would be little incentive to run for Aaron Hicks on a power-laden Yankees offense. Though he finished closer to my projection, he did settle in between the two forecasts, proving I was slightly too pessimistic. A lot of that was due to crushing our OBP projections.

I expected Cody Bellinger to pull a George Springer, but he actually outperformed even the more optimistic Steamer projection. This despite only marginally outperforming our OBP forecasts. I’m still not willing to pay much for the steals potential, though he was a fantastic 14/15 in attempts this season.