Why We Missed: Manny Machado

After a poor first half in 2017, Manny Machado finished with the lowest full-season batting average (.259) and on-base percentage (.310) of his career. He slugged under .500 for the first time since 2014. But with a strong second half and some very bad batted ball luck (.259 BABIP despite a top 2 percent hard hit rate according to Statcast), Machado was still being drafted in the top-20 in 2018, with an ADP of 17.3.

Given Machado was selected so early, to say that we missed on him may not be the most accurate statement. But 2018’s playoff villain is certainly a player that provided added value despite his lofty draft position; and one worthy of discussion.

This season, Machado’s .905 OPS was good for eleventh best among qualified hitters. His 37 home runs tied for ninth and his 107 RBIs tied for eighth in baseball. Machado ranked as the eleventh best hitter on the ESPN player rater. The multi-eligible Machado was the fifth best shortstop (with Alex Bregman nipping at his heels) and the third highest ranked third baseman. The free-agent-to-be has once again cemented himself as a late first or early second round pick in 2019 – he was picked as high as sixth in Justin Mason’s 2 Early Mock Drafts with an ADP of 11.6.

So what went right for Machado in 2018 that went wrong in 2017? Machado uncharacteristically struggled with four-seam fastballs – hitting only .242 against the pitch. Machado hit .356 against four-seam fastballs in 2016 and rebounded to hit .337 against them in 2018 – suggesting it was likely random variance (and again, batted ball luck) more than an inability to handle the pitch.

Machado also decided to steal a few more bases in 2018. After stealing nine in 2017 (and zero in 2016), Machado was fourteen for sixteen in stolen base attempts this season. As the pool of stolen bases continues to shrink, Machado’s fourteen steals are more valuable than ever – only three top twenty hitters (Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez and Nolan Arenado) stole under ten bases. If Machado decides against running in 2019 and beyond, he could see his value drop once again. Something that is admittedly hard to predict given Machado seems to start and stop running at will.

One confusing trend that lingered in 2018 was Machado’s home and road splits. Machado slashed .329/.415/.622 with a 179 wRC+ at home compared to .272/.325/.468 and 106 wRC+ on the road.

Mike Petriello dove into Machado’s home/road splits last season and discovered that despite differences in his numbers, Machado was still hitting the ball hard on the road. He mentions how Machado was able to post stronger road numbers in 2015 and 2016 – evidence that his home/road splits are confusing but not part of a larger trend to be particularly concerned about.

Petriello’s observations appear to be holding true in 2018.

He has seen some good luck in his actual verses expected wOBA at home and some bad luck on the road, but not enough that would account for his actual home/road splits.

In 2018 Machado continued to hit better at home – even when his home park wasn’t hitter-friendly. Dodger Stadium’s run suppressing environment didn’t seemed to affect Machado after his trade to Los Angeles. Machado posted an .887 OPS in 121 PA’s in Los Angeles this season compared to a .790 OPS on the road with the Dodgers.

His hard hit data shows some fluctuation, albeit not enough to suggest there is a clear issue at play. Machado posted a higher hard hit percentage in road games with Baltimore this season and a lower hard hit rate on the road while playing with LA. His career his hard hit percentage is almost identical on the road verses at home. Nothing in his batted ball distribution suggests he should be producing different results, either.

While Baltimore was a good place for Machado to hit, so were some of the parks he visited most frequently on the road. At Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, Machado has slashed .289/.329/.473 with a 116 wRC+ over 416 plate appearances. He has hit 16 home runs and posted a 12.1 percent HR/FB rate – slightly below the league average rate of 12.7 percent. If you expand to include Texas and Toronto (a park more conducive to home runs than overall run scoring) his slash line is .268/.319/.450 with 24 homers and a 107 wRC+ in 726 PAs.

If Machado’s splits could be attributed to playing his home games in Baltimore, his success should have translated into other hitter-friendly ballparks in the American League; and not Dodger Stadium.

Manny Machado’s home/road splits continue confuse. He hits the ball hard and consistently enough that we shouldn’t see this much difference. He even seems to struggle (relative to his home production) in hitter’s parks on the road. It’s possible Machado hits fewer home runs next year if he signs with a team that plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Or he might continue to hit well at home and struggle on the road. Machado’s ability to outperform his road production in Dodger Stadium and struggle at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park would suggest either is possible.

Machado is a great hitter and even in a worst-case scenario should return top-30 value next season. He just seems to have a strange way of getting there.