Pitchers Trending Down: Kimbrel, Gausman, & Sanchez
The Kimbrel discussion starts with this graph:
Plenty of narratives can exist explaining the initial velocity drop. He missed a good part of spring training. The cold weather is keeping his velocity down. He’s still warming up.
The drop doesn’t bother me as much as the trend. If he’s still building strength for the season, shouldn’t his velocity start trending up at some point?
His owners are happy so far because his surface stats looking great with 5 Saves, 11.3 K/9, and a 0.00 ERA. One problem is regression should be expected with his LOB% (100%), BABIP (.133), and HR/9 (0.00). Closers can put up a good eight games, so these stats can be expected in a season.
My main worry center around his ability to miss bats and throw strikes. His walk and strikeout rate (career low) have gotten worse with his K%-BB% dropping from a career-high 44% last season to career low 21% this season. Something is off and no signs point to the issue improving.
I’m not worried about Kimbrel losing his job since no other Red Sox reliever is throwing lights out. I’m more worried about him eventually needing to go on the DL. In leagues where every Save is sacred, owners may want to stash Matt Barnes.
I’ve never been a huge Gausman fan but he seemed to have turned the right corner last season when he added a slider. He posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in the second half. Additionally, his strikeout rate jumped from 7.7 K/9 to 9.6 K/9. Owners where dreaming during the offseason on those second half stats.
The stats didn’t continue into this season. His 8.1 K/9 is a four-year low. His 1.57 WHIP and 2.6 HR/9 are career highs. The 5.57 ERA is his highest since his rookie season. It’s been ugly so far this season.
Some regression should be expected with the home runs coming down some. Maybe.
The first issue is that his once elite fastball is down 2.5 mph to 92.4 mph. over the past few seasons, his fastball’s swinging strike rate gets halved in the low 90’s.
| FB Velo | SwStr% |
|---|---|
| 91 | 2.3% |
| 92 | 2.9% |
| 93 | 5.8% |
| 94 | 7.4% |
| 95 | 6.4% |
| 96 | 6.6% |
| 97 | 12.7% |
| 98 | 7.6% |
With a diminished fastball, he’s getting killed when behind in the count since he can’t throw is breakers for strikes. His splitter is in the zone 22% of the time and slider 40%. With these low zone rates, he’s forced to go ~70% fastball when behind.
Hitters are sitting on his fastball with a .463 BABIP and .308 ISO against it this season. They are posting a 1.717 OPS when ahead in the count, .750 OPS when even, and .393 OPS when behind. This issue is exacerbated by a career-low 47% first-strike rate.
For now, he should be on owner’s benches until his velocity and first strike rate improve. He’s always toed the edge of being a startable pitcher. He’s not startable now.
Blister boy is back and the results aren’t good and they could get worse. He’s posting a 5.3 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 which puts his ERA estimators near 5.00. His ERA is only at 3.86 because of a 0.4 HR/FB.
Sanchez has a couple factors dragging him down. Like the first pitchers I examined, his velocity is down (1.5 mph) mainly influenced by two games.
At least his velocity bounced back some in his last start.
Along with the velocity loss, he’s only throwing pitches in the strike zone at a career low 45% of the time. Something seems physically off. The velocity and control issues are real and they need to improve
Another issue with Sanchez, like Gausman, he can’t throw his non-fastball for strikes (39% on his change and 29% on his curve). And he’s not disguising this weakness by using 73% fastballs when behind and only 45% when ahead.
His sinker has a decent 62% GB% has gotten hit around a bit with a .873 OPS against it. His four-seamer is much worse. It generates a below league average number of swinging strikes and so far, hitters have posted .988 OPS against it. Batters are just sitting on these two pitches by posting a 1.381 OPS when ahead, .483 when even, and .410 when behind.
Someone around Sanchez has noticed that the four-seamer is ineffective with its usage going down from 26% in the first two games to 16% in his last two.
Overall, I’m benching him. The velocity fall-off and inability to throw strikes makes me think something is wrong. At least some signs exist of him making changes for the better.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I’m a big Sanchez guy but I agree the diminished velocity is a concern. His change up could be a developing weapon for missing bats but without a solid sinker and at least average control he is tough to roster. Wait and see approach.
In regards to Gausman, I would be interested to see if he is sacrificing velocity for additional sink/movement. Watching his previous start against Detroit, it looked as though he was making a conscious effort to work his fastball low in the zone with run. While it did hurt him at times when he got into predictable counts, it did appear to have more movement than usual on it.
Also, towards the latter end of the game, he was working back up to 95-97 by the 6th inning. Although his average velocity per game number looks gross, is there potential that he is attempting to harness his “stuff” early on, only to blow it out as his outings come to an end? Prime example that comes to mind is Justin Verlander when he pitches, except I am by no means comparing the results of the two, just simply pitching ideology.
Too bad about Gausman. I’ve liked him the past few years but looks like time to give up. I haven’t seen anything, but any thoughts on what is going on with Sonny Gray. In his last start on Friday, his velocity dropped, but before that I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that it was just bad luck
I am wondering whether Sanchez is possibly doing something different with respect to gripping or releasing the ball in an attempt to avoid the blister issues from last year. That could explain lower velocity and worse control.
Kimbrel has pitched at about this velocity and swinging strike % before (very similar to 2010 velocity and sw sk #s). And he pitched quite well, if not quite his uber elite years level like last year. More troublesome is the zone % and first pitch strike %. Much worse than he’s ever displayed. Hoping that’s an issue of a lack of spring training (and maybe he’s dialing it down a tad to try to get back to throwing strikes). The velocity trend down in season is a bit worrisome. He’s cut out the walks recently. Last 4 innings 0 walks. Although “only” 4 Ks. As long as not injured he can still be effective at this level, even if not his typical numbers.
Velocity up If not as high as last year) and 3K perfect inning last night (aka a Kimbrel). K-BB% back towards more typical career levels. Swinging strike % at career average.
His zone% and first pitch strike % still way down. Not walking many. He’s getting guys to chase. Trend is up but batters may start laying off.
I’m sure I’m not the only Sanchez owner who was dismayed that his most recent start was bumped from home against KC to on the road in Yankee Stadium. So far his starts have been two against NYY and one on the road in Camden. I can imagine pitching extra carefully in those matchups, which could lead to the control problems. So I’m willing to give him a few more chances, but since these tough AL East matchups aren’t going to go away, he’s probably gonna be streamer fodder before long…
I feel like Kimbrel missing spring training probably has something to do with that velocity… I’d guess [I’m a Sox fan, I’m more hoping] his velocity will start to head upwards around May 1.
I don’t think he needs the velocity to go up all that much, but stabilization would be nice. I think the missing spring may be a reason for the control problems more than the velocity. And it may be a combo of things, but the velocity downtrend may also be him trying to regain his location. hence the no walks in last 4 innings after starting out pretty wild.
As long as the downtrend stabilizes, he can still be a very good closer (he’s pitched at this velocity relatively, earlier in his career), just maybe not his “one of the all time greats” best level.
Just an FYI and to provide some context, Sanchez apparently has throttled back his velocity intentionally in a strange stylistic change (to go along with the increased use of the change up and decline in curveballs thrown). I believe its in an effort to get more movement and\or command.
The change in strategy seems kinda random as his velocity was right in line with 2016 in Spring Training. I personally think he’s overusing the change up, and would prefer he simply went with a heavy Sinker\4seam\cutter approach.
Blister boy? I pay money to FanGraphs for informed analysis and discussion, not lame adolescent name calling. Quite disappointing for this site.
Don’t be overly sensitive. Jeff Zimmerman cranks out great articles based on research on a regular basis. He also is part of an excellent weekly podcast called Launch Angle. Trust me, you are getting your money’s worth from his quality work. This guy is a gem as a fantasy baseball analyst . . .
For Kimbrel, I think there are couple of things going on.
It’s the weather, the late-spring start and pacing. And I believe all of these things aren’t just him or his coach but moreso a team-guided effort on keeping their arms healthy. Look at Chris Sale’s heatmap, or Price’s, or Kelly’s.
Go back to 2010-12. Jon Lester started off many seasons holding around 89-92, then expanded his velocity later in the season. I think the Red Sox quietly organize pitchers’ workload to reduce stress and injury. I forget who said it, but someone on their staff/management (Farrell maybe) had mentioned not to give a pitcher more than 300 pitches in 3 games or 20 days.
Red Sox were also pioneers to allowing pitchers to extend time between pitches, years before the studies came out on correlation between pitching faster and injury. When there’s talk of Red Sox pitcher not looking the same, look to see staff trends, as I’m sure you will find Kimbrel isn’t the only one with a loss of velocity. It is very intentional, and probably organized for multiple issues, including injury prevention and game-planning but team-wide.
Then why didn’t they do this last season?
He didn’t miss spring training last season.
5 of Sanchez’s walks came on almost-no-hitter day, and 4 of them after the 5th inning. There’s a really good chance he was trying to preserve it, and he’s never had amazing control anyway. I’m not saying it makes his numbers look great or that he definitely wouldn’t have walked anyone if he hadn’t been pitching a no-hitter til the eighth, but 4 less walks makes a big difference in rates this early. That’s 9 walks as opposed to 13, which works out to 3.2 walks per 9 innings. Let’s say for shits that he didn’t pitch those 3 innings with the walks and the manager takes him out. 3.5 walks per 9 innings. Suddenly it’s not so terrible.
I wouldn’t read into his velocity or peripherals right now. He’s throwing 30% changeups and has never ever done anything like it in his career. The fact that he’s barely using his curve will alter his underlying numbers by quite a bit. Look back at 2016 and it was quite a pitch for him. I don’t think he’s going to truly abandon it like he has so far this season. I think Toronto is just experimenting and trying to figure out how far this change can take him. He won’t ever use it well if he only throws it to lefties. Not to mention, another reason to maybe expect his velo to be a little down is that he might be a little out of shape from throwing 36 innings last year. Of course, there’s always the possibility that he’s trying to get away from that curve for good cause of the blister.
Also, his changeup has a WRC+ of 1 right now lol. I expect massive shifts in pitch usage, strikeout rates, walk rates and possibly even velocity until he figures who he really is post-blister apocalypse. He has never been the most consistent hard thrower throughout his MLB starter career anyway. Volatile asset.
As for Gausman, he has a career high swinging strike rate, is throwing more forkballs and sliders and less actual fastballs than he ever has in his career, and most importantly is LOCATING his fastball down in the zone instead of throwing it straight up the middle. His xFIP is now 3.98. He’s fine. This is an adjustment he’s needed to make forever.
Besides, during his start yesterday, he averaged 94.1 mph and maxed out at 97.2. That was according to pitch f/x also, which from my understanding, is about .75 mph less than pitch info due to a measurement difference. One or two more starts like that and you can say the velo is back. If he keeps the ball down with his velo up on his four seam, his splitter will get him more swings like it has already this season.
Agreed here. I worry a lot less about Sanchez than the others. He is still new to being an MLB starting pitcher.
Would it make sense then to begin exploring trading away Kimbrel while his value is still high?
Please write about Gausman more often. He was AWESOME last night.
Please write about Sanchez more. He had another strong start last night vs Boston no less.