Pitcher xBABIP Values
A couple of weeks ago, I released an updated list of hitters and their xBABIP values. After it was released I got a request for the pitcher xBABIP values. The xBABIP values are generated by using the hard hit batted ball data from Inside Edge. I have gone ahead and run the values and listed them below with some comments on a couple starting pitchers.
A few notes on the data. First, I have not tested it with pitchers to see if the data correlates better season-to-season than regular BABIP. I just applied the hitter’s formula to pitchers. Additionally, I used the league average Speed Score in the equation instead of adjusting it for each batter.
Yu Darvish (.321 BABIP, .320 xBABIP) – His xBABIP is the second highest among all pitchers with over 100 IP. Even though both values are high, it just doesn’t matter since Darvish is so good other wise. He is still striking out more than one batter per inning (11.2 K/9) and has dropped his walk rate to a career low (2.9 BB/9).
Alex Cobb (.288 BABIP, .264 xBABIP) – Cobb as the lowest xBABIP among all starters (min 100 IP). Being 2nd in GB% (58%) is probably the leading cause for the low value. Other high groundball pitchers have low xBABIP values like Dallas Keuchel, Sonny Gray and Clayton Kershaw.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I love this series of articles for finding value in fantasy leagues.
These xBABIP figures are team defense independent right?
So not only does Cobb have the lowest xBABIP, but he also plays for a team with a very good infield defense. Shouldn’t that skew his xBABIP even lower theoretically?
Did you you mean BABIP at the end, not xBABIP when you said:
“Shouldn’t that skew his xBABIP even lower theoretically?”
Just making sure before I answer the question.
“Cobb as the lowest xBABIP among all starters (min 100 IP).”
I am asking that since BABIP is defensively independent, Though we expect him to have a BABIP of .264 (his xBABIP), couldn’t we “expect” his true BABIP to be even lower than his xBABIP (sort of a x(xBabip) if you will)….
“Shouldn’t that skew his xBABIP even lower theoretically?”
Yes, I meant BABIP not xBABIP you are correct, sorry
You are right with your assumption that a good defensive team should be able to turn more batted balls into outs lowering his BABIP even more.
Let me think on this one.
Thanks a lot
I am almost looking at it like a UZR adjusted BABIP…
Like compute BABIP then skew it to reflect the teams defensive prowess.
Who the hell is “Jumbo Diaz”????
You really should publish this stuff regularly. This is great!!!
This BABIP-xBABIP differential seems to work for pitchers too. Go down the list and give your lucky-or-unlucky-this-year opinion before looking at the differential. I bet the differential will confirm your opinion a high percentage of the time. It would be fun to see how the differential correlates with things such as ERA-FIP differential.
I second this, ideally xBABIP would be available on the leaderboard but I’m not sure if that’s possible.
I agree with both comments. Hopefully, I will be able to publish the xBABIP values regularly once I get more time with my kids school starting back up.
I thought that ground balls were more likely to be hits than fly balls. Wouldn’t that mean that GB%, correlates positively to xBABIP rather than the other way around? What am i missing?
That was my understanding as well. But it looks like from the hard hit data I’ve seen is that Cobb is one of the leaders in fewest % of hard hit balls given up, so maybe that is driving his low xBABIP more than the groundball factor.
The number of groundballs is not relevant. All that matters is how hard hit they are.
LD > GB > FB. So yes, this is true. But more groundballs will most likely mean fewer line drives. I don’t know what the average is there, but the 14.8% line drive rate that Cobb currently holds is very low, and is obviously contributing to that xBABIP.
I believe errors on fly balls are less likely to be called, therefore, leading to higher likelihood of a hit. Believe you got it reversed. Anyone can confirm this?
I don’t see Adam Dunn on this list…
The Unluckiest List (min. 100 innings)
Justin Masterson
Colby Lewis
Ricky Nolasco
Phil Hughes
Brandon McCarthy
Dallas Keuchel
Clay Buchholz
Stephen Strasburg
Edwin Jackson
Ervin Santana
Great stuff, Jeff. Two (and a half) questions:
1) Is the inside edge data you used publicly available? If so, where?
2) Do you use 2014 batted ball rates, or do you regress it / blend it with previous seasons?