Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – March 13th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

GM: Drafting a HR’s only points league. 10 teams. 20 hitter rosters. Who are some favorite boppers in the middle / late rounds to target? Nelson Velazquez’s of the world already going off the board.

Paul Sporer: Rizzo, Melendez, Kerry Carpenter, Kepler, Chapman, Bryant, Rooker, Stanton, Raley, Wilyer Abreu, Colas, Vientos, Cowser/Kjerstad, Noda

Insert Witty Name Here: I went to the auction calculator and input my league settings which is just OBP instead of BA. And somehow Dansby was worth more than Gunnar even though Gunnar had projections all above Swanson. Any idea how that could happen?

Paul Sporer: What set of proj. did you use? Seems weird

Mojo: Prefer Jasson or J Wood over next few years?

Paul Sporer: Dominguez for me

Mookie Dookie: Who do prefer just for this season Langford or Chourio?

Paul Sporer: Langford by a hair!

projections: I know you do your own projections.. but do you have a strong opinion on any of the ones offered here on fangraphs one way or another?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t do my own this year like Justin. I use The BAT X

Mookie Dookie: Who are your top setup guys for Sv+Hld leagues that have k/9?

Paul Sporer: You can use the Auction Calculator to do that! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/auction-calculator?teams=12&lg…

Fred: How soon do we see Orelvis Martinez? I need a deep MI

Paul Sporer: It could take some time because there’s no room at the inn

Bjarke: If you were designing a new ballpark in Vegas, what world monument would you emulate?

Paul Sporer: The Grand Canyon

Darren: If D Williams is injured, who do you think gets closer duties in MLW?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Abner Uribe fan, though I will freely admit that my interest is born from him becoming a star reliever for me in Out of the Park Baseball last year!

And Desist: Who do you think wins the Cease trade sweepstakes?  Looks like it’s between NYY, SD, and TEX so far

Paul Sporer: I think NYY goes hard if Cole is merked

Pitcher Problems: Hey Paul!

Paul Sporer: Hi!

Mookie Dookie: Is there anyone going in the top 10 of redrafts that you feel is too risky and therefore avoiding altogether?

Paul Sporer: Probably only Carroll as I’m just a little nervous on his shoulder and I’d just to prefer to go for Tucker, Tatis, Strider, or Soto. That said, I’m not fully out on him, just not trying to pay Top 5

Mookie Dookie: In a 10tm H2H with QS would you keep Gray Rod for 13th rnd pick or Glasgow for a 12th?

Paul Sporer: Think I’d just take the round discount with Grayson

Guest: If you’re drafting a league with 2B, SS, MI, do you bump either position up your board more than the other? thinking about depth between the two

Paul Sporer: I give a liiiiittle favor to 2B as I like SS’s depth a bit more, but I don’t bend over backwards to get a 2B

E: Is Acuna, still the number 1 guy for you (12 team roto)? If not who? Also, if you’re looking to wrap around a pitcher after acuna, drafting from the 1 spot (so say 24 or 25th pick) who are you going for?

Paul Sporer: Still totally fine with Acuña at 1 as the news has been as good as we could’ve possibly hoped for. If I’m pivoting off him, it’s to go Strider at 1 and just get the best SP in baseball. I like one of the Seattle pitchers or Wheeler at 24/25 if I do go RAJ at 1

Henry Davis: We kinda digging him once he gets Catcher eligibility?

Paul Sporer: We are, yes! I’m a fan. He was last cut on my Breakouts list and I might just add him in an update. He is still very affordable even with some buzz on some pods and Twitter (late-200s)

Insert Witty Name Here: The Bat X. Definitely strange.

Paul Sporer: This is re: the Dansby/Gunnar stuff for those who didn’t see the initial Q. It makes a touch more sense using The BAT X as Dansby has him edged out in every counting category and only a 5 pt. loss in OBP.

Carlos Rodon: Am I just cooked? Looks like the same issues from last season have carried over to this spring

Paul Sporer: I’m certainly a lot more nervous based on the Spring issues. I’ve moved off him a good bit and he’ll be moved down in the next SP update

Junior Circuit: I want Junior Caminiero. Do you think he’s ready after a few weeks (ie, when his service time clocks to under a year) or will it be months?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll probably get some time in the minors as a 20 yr old w/just 81 gms in AA. I know he got an MLB taste, but I think that was a reward for a big season

Cody L.: Health being equal, who has the highest ADP next year? Langford, Chourio or Holliday?

Paul Sporer: Langford, I really think he has a great shot to just hit the ground running in a big way

Colton: I’m so happy I’ve brought you and Justin over to my side on Suwinski, it’s his year!

Paul Sporer: Citation needed

Paul Sporer: I’ve been a pretty big Suwinski since the summer

Devin Williams: I’ll be ok right???

Paul Sporer: I certainly can’t guarantee that!

Austin: Hey Paul!

Paul Sporer: Hi!

Buff: Does Lawrence win the closer job in Colorado? Does he hold it?

Paul Sporer: Does it matter?

Paul Sporer: jk jk, I know saves are saves, especially in deeper leagues. He certainly has a good shot. Seems to be down to him or Tyler Kinley.

Jay: How many IL spots is enough to take deGrom in a keeper in the 24th round (of 26) (kept as a 24th rounder in ’25)?

Paul Sporer: I miiiight do it with 3 given how cheap he is, but I’d probably prefer 5+

Pumper: Hi Paul, I always read your chats, but this is the first time I’ve been live and able to ask a question…. Am I unreasonable to be excited about a bulked up Luis Matos raking in spring training, or is he going to breakout big when regular playing time is open ?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think it’s unreasonable. A 22-year old who has been a well-regarded prospect having a big spring is definitely worth getting excited about. At the very least, he will get run vL, but he will have to fight for PT vR w/the OF pretty well set as long as Conforto & Yaz are healthy (and Lee in CF)

Jett: Are you in on Luis Matos as a 5th OF’er in a deep, 20+ team dynasty?  Giants OF’ers will be aging/injuring out soon, no?

Paul Sporer: Meant to include Jett’s Q w/Pumper to cover Matos in one fell swoop

JayBook: In updating my rankings for a draft Saturday, I noticed that the ADP for healthy starting pitchers seem to have improved considerably, in some cases by 20 or more points in the last few weeks. Are fantasy managers responding to a rash of injuries or is this something that happens often this time of year?

Paul Sporer: More the latter. We also switched our site ADP from the 50 round Draft & Holds to the 12-team Rotowire Online Championship which are 30 round standard waiver leagues and pitching gets pushed up there, too. There’s even another jump of SPs once the Main Events start over at the NFBC as well. But yeah, just the closer we get to the season, the more SPs get pushed up as ppl feel more confident in the ones who are at least healthy right now

Purple Tricaretops: Should I get Nolan Jones off the FA Market

Paul Sporer: Definitely. I’m skeptical on his Top 60 ADP, but free off the market is a slam dunk

Big Joey: So initial reports is Cole misses a month or two and comes back in May or June. No tear! (supposedly). Anyway, with this news, does Cole’s value still take a major hit in a H2H league where I’m pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs? I just need him in the 2nd half/playoffs

Paul Sporer: Ah just saw it — https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/yankees-gerrit-cole-out-one-two… — his draft price should still take a pretty big hit, yes, but if you already have him and you’re very confident about making the playoffs then I understand seeing this news as somewhat positive

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Hi Paul-  thx for the great chats.  Thinking about trading Seager ($23) for Rutschman ($11) to get younger and save budget.  The extra money will allow me to keep Waldrep($1) and Pepiot($4).  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: While I do love Seager, I’m also a huge Adley fan and with the savings, it’s an easy yes for me! Huge Pepiot fan, too, so that only sweetens it for me

Please: Gil or Beeter or Warren as NYY SP5 in 2024? What about dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got a couple shares of Gil so that’s my lean right now

Guest: Paul, who is way too rich for your taste this draft season?

Paul Sporer: These guys! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-fantasy-busts-sporers-picks/

Cant Beat the Beibs: We buying into the Beiber training at driveline and getting his velo back up?

Paul Sporer: I’m a long-time Belieber, so yes. I think he’s fairly priced, too

Insert Witty Name Here: Re: dansby/gunnar my bad. I apparently can’t read numbers good. I was probably mixing up the projection systems.  Anyway, who do you like better between the two?

Paul Sporer: No problem! I think that’s literally the only system where Dansby has some edges over Gunnar

E: How much of a discount before you’re interested in cole if the word is he may only miss 1-2 months?

Paul Sporer: I think I need him after pick-150 to start considering him in the NFBC universe where there are no IL slots. Maybe 25-30 picks in leagues with multiple IL slots

Honeybooboo: Our leagues commissioner apparently spent our league dues and the first place winner and myself(2nd place) have not been paid in full yet. Should we allow this guy to play this year? I don’t mean remain commissioner just play at all period

Paul Sporer: 100% out, that’s insane

Guest: whos gets those MIL chances is the big guy is out?

Paul Sporer: I like speculating on Abner Uribe

Jay: I want to apologize in advance to your real life fan interest for tanking the seasons of Skubal & Meadows since they’re on my team

Paul Sporer: lololol I appreciate the consideration

Saul: Why is Mike Trout’s ADP so low. His rate stats are still really good and if he plays 110 games he could be an MVP candidate.

Paul Sporer: Hey, I’m with you, I’m snapping him up in multiple leagues. I think it’s the multiple years of missed time and relative down season last yr bc while a 134 wRC+ is still pretty good, it’s 35 pts off his career mark!

Rob: Shallow OBP league with no CI.  Keep Nolan Jones for a 12th or Casas for a 20th?

Paul Sporer: Gooooootta take the 8 rd discount IMO

Mario: Have you had a look at Weathers to see if the ST stats are legit?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t been able to see him, but I looove the skills – 35% K, 6% BB, 19% SwStr in 14 IP. It hasn’t really pushed the price to anything too high, either, so I’m fine taking the shot

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

Paul Sporer: E. LIZ. ABETH. OLSEN.

Big Joey: Please talk about Cole and how everything will be fine 😀

Paul Sporer: I try not to lie to y’all!

Land O’ Lakes: What do you have on Matt Wallner

Paul Sporer: Big power, could be this year’s Brent Rooker and drop 30!

Caddanne Rafaela: Why is no one talking about me?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s bc the hitting is a bit of an unknown. I know he’s got 3 HR/2 SB in Spring which is nice, but it has come w/a 27% K rate and thus a .242 AVG. I do looove the glove and that can guarantee PT and thus make him a deep league play

SucramRenrut: Does Cowser play enough to merit taking him over boring vets like Conforto, Blackmon or even Haniger?

Paul Sporer: I think if they bring him north, it’ll be to play and not just 1-2x a week

Chad: What kind of adjustments would you make if you were in an 8 team league? I feel like getting 2-3 aces, all relievers, and finding pitching as the year goes on with it being a shallow league? Is that off to you?

Paul Sporer: No, that checks out. You wanna consolidate as much star power as you can in shallower formats like that since the waiver wire is so robust. Gotta be active and churn guys on the bottom quarter/third of your roster bc standing still through cold streaks just doesn’t make sense. That’s different than how we normally play and trust the process w/guys who have great skills and modest results, but I just find that you fall behind if you play that way in 10 teamers and below

Paul Sporer: OK, y’all. Next week we’ll go a couple hours to get everyone situated for the biggest draft weekend of the year! Thanks so much for coming out, talk to y’all next week.