Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – June 8th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out!!

Kettles: Which side of this deal would you prefer in a points format and by how much: K Marte/Wheeler or Buxton/P Lopez?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a huge split here, but I’d prefer Marte/Wheeler slightly

Cornfield: Would you prefer Morel or L Gurriel as a short term option?

Paul Sporer: Gotta go Morel. Still in on Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but Morel has been amazing and the added speed pushes him ahead here

Jeff Chisholm: Hi

Paul Sporer: Hi

Geddy: Bryan Reynolds made to our waiver wire.  I am in need of OF and HR’s.  What percent FAAB do you think is warranted?

Paul Sporer: How deep is the league? Feel like you prob gotta go 20-25% at the very least

Jim Leyland Palmer: Not so much for fantasy, but how do you feel about Faedo’s role and future for the Tigers? He definitely got lost in the shuffle a bit in the minors with injury and lack of performance compared to “the big 3”. But he’s been great this year (esp considering had very little rehab coming of TJ before coming up), and Mize and Manning are on pace for lost years. Is he firmly in the rotation picture when everyones healthy? Quality mid rotation arm in general? Could he be the #2 behind Skubal when all is said and done?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been so pleased with Faedo. He is one of a handful of bright spots that have been overshadowed by the overall team failure. Faedo was a one-time legit prospect but injuries derailed his ascent. If he could be more consistent with his whiffs (brilliant today w/17 in 82 pitches), he could definitely emerge into a solid 2/3-type. Until then, he is more of a good 4 for the Tigers and capable team streamer in fantasy

Ryan: Who do you prefer ROS:    Gavin Lux or Luis Garcia (Nationals SS obviously)

Paul Sporer: Still Lux, but I’m pleased by Garcia doing well in Triple-A. I feel he’s been given up on by a lot of folks despite being just 22 yrs old!

BD: Thanks for doing this Paul. Jose Miranda, Josh Rojas, or Hunter Dozier a better bet for a third base fill-in? And would you be ready to drop Trevor Rogers at this point?

Paul Sporer: I’m really trying to avoid cutting Rogers. I know it’s going HORRIBLY right now, but I’m still looking to stash him and see if he can rebound in the next 2-3 starts. I’d go Rojas if you need the speed, Miranda if you just want best per PA… though he doesn’t play daily so that hurts if you’re in a 12 or lower

Teflonzo: Bo Bichette’s walk rate is up to 11% in the last ~30 days.  Something to monitor or an outlier compared to his career walk rate of 6.0?

Paul Sporer: it could just be teams being more cautious w/him during a hot streak or a concerted effort by him to be more patient and in turn the results have come with it. definitely worth monitoring.

Tony Soprano: Why do you like the Tigers?

Paul Sporer: Grew up around Detroit, so it’s not Maybelline, I was born with it (sweet reference to a 90s makeup company slogan… super topical!)

sean: Is Martin Perez for real? Where does he rank ROS in points league compared to Pablo Lopez, Walker B, Rodon, Nola and  Montas?

Paul Sporer: He really isn’t. The HR suppression is driving the success and he is definitely contributing to that with the GB% spike, but outside of that there have been no discernible skill changes, putting most of the success on his unsustainable HR rate and BABIP. He will undoubtedly regress and at the very least be his normal mid-4s self from here forward. Or baseball could be super cruel and regression could bring him back to a mid-4s for the season.

This is Jason Vargas 2017, the season from which Nick Pollack’s Vargas Rule was born, and even with a 2.22 ERA through June, Vargas ended at 4.16 which was right in line with the guy he’d been the 6 yrs before that (3.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP in 810 IP).

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, appreciate the chat. What’s your outlook on Juan Soto ROS? I think his slash line will normalize and I assume we’ll see him get back to batting .300 and a .900 OPS (at least), but what about the counting stats? Once Cruz & Bell are gone in 6 weeks, will he have enough team context to rack up Runs & RBI? Or is he never going to get a good pitch to see again and pick up 150 BBs? I’m just wondering how you think he’ll rank by season’s end and if selling shares of him is a viable strategy. I just don’t see a scenario where he’s the legit Top 5 fantasy player as he was projected to start

Paul Sporer: He prob won’t be a top 5 guy given the suppression RBI via the BB, but guys don’t get drafted top 5 because they WILL finish there, but rather because they are unlikely to finish outside say the top 50 players or so with a chance to be the best in the league. He is still pacing for 34 HR, 91 R, and 14 SB. His AVG lagged last year (not this much, but dipped to .263 in mid-June) and he hit .343 over his final 421 PA. I don’t really see any reason to sell him. Yes he’s pacing for 64 RBI and even acknowledging that WAS isn’t good, we still expected more than that, but you can bridge the gap while everything is fine (R/HR/SB) or will be (AVG). I’d be more open to buying Soto than selling him. He is one of the game’s best without question.

Catchers: How would you rank Stephenson, Varsho, and Adley ROS?

Paul Sporer: Just as they are listed here

Royal scam: Seriously considering dropping Bergman for Espinal in a 10 team H2H. What say you?

Paul Sporer: Surely you have someone worse you can cut. No shot Bregman is your worst guy. Just absolutely no shot. I realize it’s been blah, but he still has BRILLIANT plate skills and a 117 wRC+. The .219 AVG is booty, but 18 HR/84 RBI/75 R pace is hardly cuttable, even in a 10. That’s a downside pace, he’ll have a heater and get the AVG back on track (.227 BABIP). I’d be more apt to buy Bregman than cut him.

Kate: Think Kyle Muller or Huascar Ynoa get another shot in the rotation for the Barves this year?

Paul Sporer: Knowing pitcher injuries, probably both at some point

Big Joey: Why don’t the Royals just cut C. Santana and call up Pasquantino…so annoying!

Paul Sporer: I’m a Santana fan over his career, but my goodness what are we doing here? I know some of Santana’s under-the-hood hints at a rebound espec. w/the .186 BABIP, but we said that last year when he had a .227 and in ’20 when he had a .212. He’s a career .260 BABIP guy. I just don’t see keeping Pasquantino and Pratto down to keep playing Santana

Kate: Senzel seems to be showing a bit of life lately.  Any upside left there?  Seems to be very little power this year which wasn’t really a problem I was expecting.

Paul Sporer: Definitely has some upside if he can ever find consistent health so I can see him cycling around the league as multiple fantasy teams take a shot on him for the SB potential

Bill: Santander’s walk rate has dropped,  still better than last season.  He seemed elite the first month.  What’s going on?

Paul Sporer: There are spikes and dips like this across a given season, but they are just more noticeable in April when they are the first stats on the sheet. That’s why we don’t make rash decisions in April/May

Paul Sporer: Santander still has a career-best 8.9% SwStr with his K% down 3 pts to 20% as well, so there are multiple positives in his profile. As it heats in Camden, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a power spike, too. I still quite like Santander.

Aye Chihuahua: You wrote up Mitch White in today’s Boxscore Bits.  How should we value him RoS given talent and opportunity?  Top-75 arm?

Paul Sporer: He is REALLY hard to judge on any sort of long-term level because we don’t know when he will be in the rotation. SP White is a top 75 arm, I can go with that, but just be mindful that we won’t have a firm handle on when he will be starting as Kershaw & Heaney work their way back (not that either is a bastion of health, nor is the rest of the rotation, but White is unquestionably 7th man up when all healthy)

TigersFan: Can you promise yet to not to rank Snell top 30 for the 2023 rankings?

Paul Sporer: I mean it’s easy to be down after a bad start, but prior to yesterday his core skills still look a lot like the Cy season. It’s health, not talent, and I’m always going to bet on talent profiles hoping to spike the health luck. If you don’t like that kind of profile, I totally get it, but if he winds up with 140+ IP with these skills (well, this swing&miss but a BB rate more in the 9-10% range), I’ll still be pretty high on him.

Kate: Odds Ramon Laureano gets moved at the deadline?

Paul Sporer: 2000%?

Why ask why?: Why does he like the Tigers?   Why do I like the Atlanta Falcons, Little Debbie snacks, and long tub baths with romantic music and soft soap.   The heart wants what the heart wants!

Paul Sporer: LOL exactlyyyyy

Curtis: I seem to remember “peak” as being around 27y.o. for a while… do you think it’s still about 27?

Paul Sporer: No, I believe the aging curve has moved up just bc guys are called up earlier. I’d have to check with Jeff on the exact numbers. I think the general curve is straight down where you’re your best off rip and slowly age down until your 30s when there are bigger cliffs. Obviously individuals take different trajectories, but I tend to view the 25-27 range as the hitter peak while more like 27-30 for starters. Those ages are my rough framework… not scientifically done like Jeff’s aging curve stuff.

Guest: What are you doing with Rutschman right now? I’m not panicked but having a complete zero at C is not going well for my team.

Paul Sporer: You waited this long, you can’t jump ship after 61 PA. Rookie Cs are an awful bet as a group, though, so temper expectations (he’ll be better than this, but might be like a 90-95 wRC+ this yr). I took some Adley shots in draft & holds where you draft 4 Cs anyway, but otherwise I’m usually a hard fade on rookie Cs.

Insert Witty Name Here: Is there a good way to rank relievers in a saves+holds league? How can you assess which RP’s will get holds?

Paul Sporer: I like Shutdowns (SD) which is a Win Probability Added (WPA)-based stat that is much better than SV or HD in terms of judging actual quality. I tend to look at SD leaders for potential HD gems bc if you are getting a lot of shutdowns, you will likely be in the high leverage spots, getting HD opps and possibly also in position for vulture W or SV. Here’s an RP custom board I use: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y…

Paul Sporer: Also, RP usage is a good way to root out potential HD guys. That is just day-to-day boxscore scanning to see who gets leveraged chances.

Bill: Marcus Semien went from 124th overall best player in my league all the way to 62nd after last night.  That’s pretty incredible at this point in the season.

Paul Sporer: It really is! Even acknowledging it’s 2 gms, it’s still incredible to move that much. It was so hard to cut him despite how painfully awful it had been. While I understood in 10s or shallower, I was reluctant to fully advocate for it bc even before he hit that 1st HR, I still felt he was a 20 HR/15 SB guy and it was unlikely that the wire was offering something better in most cases.

Richard: Any idea where to find info about minor league injuries?  I can’t find any news about Espino and it’s driving me crazy.

Paul Sporer: Twitter-search in my go-to for that sorta stuff, but it’s dodgy and tough to track down sometimes

Big Joey: Is Will Smith the best catcher in dynasty leagues?

Paul Sporer: Not unquestionably. Adley and Varsho have to be considered IMO. Varsho will hold C elig. at least another year and of course Adley is Adley!

BrendanMcKayDylanWalsh: Hi Paul! Looking to replace Taylor Ward in a 6×6 12 team mixed (counts walks) without consideration of any one category. I’m looking at Pham, Straw, Yaz, Grisham, and Laureano. What say you? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I imagine you don’t have specific category needs since they aren’t specified here so that rules out Straw immediately for me (would only want him if SBs were a huge need) and mitigates Laureano & Pham some, too. In that case, I’d just go Yaz — easily the best hitter of the group this yr and has the skills to sustain while hitting high in a good lineup.

Michael Harris: Defense is awesome, but zero power and his speed isn’t translating into steals.   Other than in deeper dynasty leagues, time to move on?

Paul Sporer: I gotta go more than 38 PA before giving up, espec. in 12s and deeper. In 10s, I get the quick churn and I doubt he cost much anyway so that makes it easier, too. Folks spent a pretty penny in 15s and no shot I’d throw it away after just 10 gms

Dusbin7: Recommending we go down with you in a heap of flames with Grandal or finally cut bait?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding firm

Paul Sporer: 4% HR/FB is just insane!!!!

Paul Sporer: And no, he’s not hitting the ball as hard as last year… fine, I’m not calling for him to be that version, but I don’t see any difference between this yr and his 2019-20 self outside of that ugly HR/FB.

Dan: If Andujar gets traded will he have a full time role?

Paul Sporer: Impossible to say for sure, but I doubt someone is trading for him to not play him

Ted: Pratto is on the 40 man and Pasquantino is not.  Just fair warning to everyone waiting on Vinnie.

Paul Sporer: Correct and the 40 is currently full, too. Pasquantino has been MARKEDLY better, but Pratto might get the first shot due to already being on, though

stef: Should I take a shot on J Berti? I’d drop J Rojas. Need steals

Paul Sporer: he’s playing a lot better than Rojas right now and Rojas has never been some burner on the bases, so yes I’d do that

Guest: Need to drop one, Votto or C. Walker.

Paul Sporer: Gah!! That’s roughhhh. I meeeaaann, I guess Walker bc of the park difference. It is a PURE coinflip. I have zero confidence in a pick here, I just want to be clear

Paul Sporer: I know that’s not helpful, but I can’t pretend to have a strong lean on something so close

sean: thanks again for doing these. Are we buying our boy Strider as a SP in points going forward? Feed me a healthy yes!

Paul Sporer: As long as the Braves commit to this, I’m in. Season high 87 pitches last time out. If he can get a consistent 85-90, then he can be a solid 5-and-dive with occasional 6 IP spikes. 5-and-dives can be precarious as one bad inning usually sinks the start, but his upside is rich and I’m holding him everywhere I have him and seeing this through until ATL gives me a reason to stop viewing him as SP

Charlie Morton: what’s wrong with me?  Should I be dropped?

Paul Sporer: The thing is, he’s just not that far off! He doesn’t need an overhaul to be a solid mid-to-high 3s arm rest of way. A big issue is the ineffectiveness of that curve. The swinging strike rate is down 4 pts to 15%, dropping the K rate 12 pts to 28% and sending the AVG sky-high to .292 (up 165 pts!!). Until the curve gets back, he will continue to be inconsistent. I’d bench him easily, but I’m still reluctant to full on cut in 12s or deeper

Big Joey: Paul please I need to know if I should trade Cortes for Cease

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer Cease, yes

Kevin: Is Bellinger worth holding in an OBP league.  The steals have been there but he has been otherwise very mediocre from a counting stats standpoint and obviously his OBP is terrible.

Paul Sporer: 12-team or deeper, I’m looking to hold… I have to think there is someone worse to cut. In 10s or shallower, I’m open to moving on for him

Paul Sporer: from him*

TigersFan: Re: Snell – which core skills are you talking about? His Cy season was fueled by 88% LOB and .241 BABIP, which his SIERA of 3.30 that season shows how lucky he got (xERA even 3.15). Versus that admittedly great season, his K% is down 5 pts, BB% up 4 pts, and SIERA up almost a full run. What am I missing?

Paul Sporer: Diminishing SIERA/ERA splits as pure luck is the first issue. That’s just far too simplistic. Just bc something is unsustainable doesn’t mean it’s pure luck. I was generally referring to his velo & swing-and-miss which just aren’t far off the 2018 peak: 32% K/15% in ’18; 32%/15% since ’19. The 13% BB since ’21 has to improve as I acknowledged.

He has a 3.80 SIERA since then, which isn’t the 3.30 of ’18, but again, not that far off which was my main pt. The 3.30 SIERA in ’18 was 10th in MLB while the 3.80 since then is 23rd. This idea that 2018 was some kind of fraud and he’s been bad since just doesn’t really hold up when I look at the big picture.

Geddy: Max Muncy – time to move on – or give him 2-3 more weeks once he is activated?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size

Nate: Think Anthony Rendon is getting toasty even when he’s healthy at this point? I’m weighing a buy low trade on him

Paul Sporer: Feels Bregmany where the perception is much worse than the actual results: 116 wRC+ with a 20 HR, 91 RBI, 8 SB pace. The 59 R pace is awful, but that’s on his team more than him and his .335 OBP. I’d buy low

belt: Is McClanaGod a top 5 keeper SP value now?

Paul Sporer: he is!

Zulema: Is Myles Straw worth rostering, my league is 12? Im ok on steals but need triples.

Paul Sporer: TRIPLES?!??!

Paul Sporer: I mean, I guessssss

E: Votto has been himself since he came off the IL. Last 7, 15, 30 days look good.

Paul Sporer: He absolutely has! Walker has been awesome, too, though. They’re very close.

Steve: Musgrove or Montas ROS? H2H leagues.

Paul Sporer: Musgrove

Zulema: Yes, I need triples its a category I need. 🙂 is for Not saying Walker when he’s the clear choice over Votto lol

Paul Sporer: That’s gotta be a tough cat to manage!! Nah I think they’re razor close!

Trent R.: Are Logan Gilbert and Cortes the real deal or should we all expect some heavy regression?

Paul Sporer: Both have displayed bankable skills with strong stuff. I don’t see any reason to believe either will collapse. If they do, it’s an upset. I’d project for sub-4.00 ERAs the rest of the way as must-start options across all formats

El Guapo: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. I’m happy w a bunch of my pitching pickups this season (Cortes, Wright, Gilbert, and Strider) but I’m wondering who I should worry about fading come playoff time? Anyone concern you in that group?

Paul Sporer: Strider in particular, sure, but too early to worry much about that. If you get too hung up planning that far in the future, you’ll lose sight of the here and now and perhaps cost yourself even getting into the playoffs

Shlabotnik: (also in a triples league–it’s tough to manage, yes, but there are clear standouts…along with players who don’t necessarily rack them up but who are far likelier to get them than others.)

Paul Sporer: The latter being David Peralta?

McBoatface: Can’t find a trade partner, so I’m going to have to cut Megill, Whitlock or Helsley when Megill comes back. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I guess i gotta cut Whitlock then. As I wrote in Boxscore Bits today, his perception as SP feels worse than the actual results. The 0 K gm really stung, but he rebounded w/5 yesterday. I still really like him, but you’re in a tough spot so it’s gotta be him IMO

Hank Scorpio: Are you in on the Kluber two step next week (at NYY, at BAL) in 12tm?

Paul Sporer: Yes, while holding my breath big time

Paul Sporer: I have him in a 12 and I’ll be taking the plunge myself

Chucky: I have both Walker and Votto in my lineup. Votto is raking, Walker is 0 fer. Hopefully this lights a fire somewhere. Votto> Walker and it isn’t particularly close.

Paul Sporer: We have strong opinions on this one!

Paul Sporer: I know Votto is raking right now, but they are dead even 106 wRC+ so far this year And Walker has 14 HRs!!! A comically low .180 BABIP has kept Walker from an even better output as his singles aren’t really falling, but he’s right there with Votto for me

RAGBRAI: Hader’s toast now, right? Will the Brewerss be able to hold on with what they have until their SPs are all healthy?

Paul Sporer: Wait, what???

Paul Sporer: Are you saying he’s toast bc he finally gave up some runs or did some news come out?

Springs: Is Springs breaking out as a SP?

Paul Sporer: He is, yes. A much cheaper Rasmussen and might be even better, tbh

El Guapo: Awesome, thanks for the response! I am pretty loaded at SP (also have Scherzer, Webb, and Fried) and am trying to figure out who to deal for one more bat.

Paul Sporer: I love that trio, but of course Max and Webb will have lower prices in the market due to injury & performance, respectively, so maybe a sell high on Fried after his gem in Coors?

Enrico Palazzo: Is Jake Burger a legit deep league pickup?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s a deep lg gem right now. If he could find everyday PT, I’d start to look at him in 12s, but until then it’s 15s or deeper for sure

Shlabotnik: Peralta got 8 triples last year…that’s a case of, when doing customized pre-draft rankings, you have to knock a guy like Peralta down a good bit to account for the high variability of the stat vs. a ranking system’s tendency to average out previous years.

Also, there are guys in triples parks–KC + SF are biggies.

Paul Sporer: He’s actually 4th in baseball since arriving in ’14, so how do you figure someone like him who isn’t traditionally speedy but has maintained a pretty strong 3B floor? DET is also a good part in RCF for 3Bs, but our hitters can’t hit it that far so you can only benefit with visiting hitters

Triples: Triples get no love in fantasy. Not sure, are there leagues that combine hr and triples?  Seems like simple way make them relevent. Is there a reason not to?

Paul Sporer: I love 3Bs, they’re exciting af, but we can barely get any 1Bs these days, how can we expect any sort of influx of 3Bs?! I think 3B+HR would be the best way to incorporate them. Feel like there are too few to make ’em their own roto cat

Bandon Brelt: Which speedy middle infield-eligible player do you like more ROS, Morel or Gimenez?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s tough. I’m late to the Gimenez train, but have jumped on this yr having watched an inordinate number of CLE gms bc I love Jose Ramirez. I was kinda anti-Gimenez coming into this year and have completely 180’d! That saiddddd Morel cuts a similar pwr-spd profile while playing daily and batting atop the order, so he’s the pick for me

Trishul: Hey! do you like Springs better than Roansy? trying to find someone to replace Cobb!

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think he will have a more stable floor start to start with similar upside

Shlabotnik: Wasn’t sure about Peralta without looking…I don’t account for it per se but just notice that it’s a skill that some players have and some don’t–some guys jsut seem to look to take that 3rd base.

As for the Tigers–that’s why I drafted Baddoo. Allow me to consult my notes to remind myself how that’s turned out…

[I feel like my excitement over this triples conversation is working at cross-purposes with my great desire to get your take, per my earlier post, on the trade of Judge/Realmuto/Bassit for Cron/Garver/Ohtani (P)/Duran (Red Sox)…13-team mixed/5X5 + H,2B,3B,OBP]

Paul Sporer: Poor Akil. I was SOOOO excited for him! I prefer the Judge side of the trade. It’s not lopsided or anything, but that’s where I lean

Gone Fishing: Strasburg outlook ROS?  Those injuries are notorious for ending many a pitcher’s career

Paul Sporer: Yes, thoracic outlet suuuucks and he has a bevy of other injuries on top of it. I’m rooting for him bc I’ve been a fan from day 1, but I have zero fantasy stock and don’t intend to change that

Insert Witty Name Here: How big of a gap is there between ATL’s Contreras vs Realmuto?

Paul Sporer: Still a pretty big gap. William Contreras is popping off, but we need more to put him on JTR’s level

Vince: Hi and thanks for great chats! Contending in 10-tm H2H category, w Baz about to come off my IL — E-Rod, Lynn & Heaney soon to follow. Need to drop 2-3 SPs from Morton (hurts to consider), Sandoval, Pivetta, Whitlock, Montgomery & E-Rod (disappointing before IL). Who goes and who has ROS shallow league value?

Paul Sporer: For now, I think Pivetta and Whitlock are first guys up. I’m not sure I agree that ERod was struggling before IL. He had a 3.72 ERA/1.19 WHIP before the injury start pushed it to 4.38/1.33. I understand the injury start counts, but the notion that he was slogging through the season before succumbing to injury isn’t quite there. I’m inclined to give him 3-4 starts off the IL to see if he picks up where he left off. I’d be fine w/the 3.72/1.19 for sure

Bob: Who do you think goes to the pen–Anderson or Gonsolin–when Kershaw and Heaney come back?

Paul Sporer: Tough to say, tbh. They have both been good. I wonder if they might alternate the two. Too bad they didn’t have a surplus when they played 31 gms in 30 days bc they probably could’ve spotted both guys in regularly enough w/the main group (Buehler, Urias, Kersh, Heaney).

Oddball Herrera: Kirilloff taking no prisoners in AAA…would you rather have previous flavor of the month prospect Kirilloff or current FOTM prospect Pasquintino?

Paul Sporer: I love Vinnie P, but I gotta go with the guy who’s been in the league and will definitely be back in Kirilloff!

Ray of Hope: Is R.Ray a buy low or a name brand sell based on last year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see any sort of major rebound. He allowed too many HRs last yr but outran them by walking nobody. The walk rate has regressed and now the HRs are much more punishing

Dodger Dog: Is this a lost year for Muncy or a buy low opp?

Paul Sporer: I lean toward the former. I just took a pass on Muncy this year, willing to be wrong if he was healthy but fearing that he was not.

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning at 9:30 AM CT and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!