Paul Sporer’s Weekly Baseball Chat – May 4th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!

Rick: What should one do with Arozarena??

Paul Sporer: I’m holding virtually everywhere. Maaaybe a 10 where something particularly spicy is available, but otherwise I gotta give him more than a month. He had a 20-gm run worst than this last year https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arozara01&t=b&ye…

Arnold: Is Joe Ryan a sell high candidate?

Paul Sporer: Not for me personally. I’m a huge fan so I’ve got him down for a strong season overall. If you can sell and improve the team, that’s fine

Mark: Is it justifiable to pull the plug on Ranger Suarez? I need a streaming spot and I like him least out of my pitchers (between him and Rasmussen)

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m OK with that. Mets & Dodgers on tap

BD: Thoughts on Jose Miranda? Does he have a solid chance of sticking and being a real contributor?

Paul Sporer: He does, yes. Quality player with good contact skills that could really lead to something impactful

Ian: In a 10 Team Points League – Can you please rank: Kepler, Profar, Ian Happ, Bohm, Nimmo. Position doesn’t matter

Paul Sporer: Not a ton of split here, but that’s how it works in 10 teamers. Nimmo, Bohm, Kepler, Happ, Profar

Trevor Rog: What am i doing?

Paul Sporer: Definitely a slow start. The changeup isn’t as effective and it’s creating a cascading effect. Without those swings and misses, it’s hurting a lot of what he’s trying to do

JStu: I have Ketel Marte, Story, Brandon Lowe, Justin Turner in my infield.  What do i do?

Paul Sporer: Crying is always an option

The Torkelson also Rises: Spencer Torkelson got dropped in my league (12 team, OPS instead of AVG). Should I pick him up over, say, Max Kepler?

Paul Sporer: You cannn. I understand why Tork was cut in a 12, but he will be picked back up again for sure. Coin toss if you wanna roll Tork or Kep tbh

Brouhaha: Hi Paul, is there hope for Civale or should he be ignored? Will Pagan still get save ops or is he a drop? Thanks again.

Paul Sporer: Looking at his arsenal, it seemed there was swing-and-miss upside but the SwStr continues downward and he’s just a run of the mill streamer right now

Paul Sporer: And I like Duran a lotttt more than Pagan

Vince: What’s up with Marcus Semien? Is this just a slow start or are there underlying issues?

Paul Sporer: Slow start, pressing with new team. I think he will be fine, but use the projections as your guide (20 HR/10 SB rest of way)

4th OF: Ride out Julio Rodriguez to see if improvements continue or jump ship for Laureano now?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding out

Jim Leyland Palmer: Any good buy low SPs out there for you? I’m in a 10tm 5×5, pitching not in great shape

Paul Sporer: Is any pitcher bad these days? lol

Paul Sporer: If there was a shred of discount on Woodruff, I’d take it

Paul Sporer: Stroman, E-Rod

Rich: Who do you see as the eventual Red Sox closer? And are you high on Helsley?

Paul Sporer: If they are able to stay in the race, their closer isn’t on the team, otherwise I think it’ll kinda float with Robles, Diekman, and Barnes and be a fantasy nightmare

Rich: Also what do you think of Yepez?

Paul Sporer: Biiiig Yepez fan! Gave him some love after seeing him at AFL and I’m excited to see him in the majors! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2021-roster-review-st-louis-cardinals/

JW: Rank the following SP waiver adds ROS (12 tm 5×5, redraft) J. Taillon, C. Paddack, Glen Otto, Brad Keller

Paul Sporer: Not sure a ROS ranking is valuable here bc these guys aren’t really locked into 12-teamers ROS. Think more in 4-6 wk chunks. Otto, Taillon, Paddack, Keller — that’s without looking at schedules

Mario: are you changing your strategy, in terms of who to pickup/trade for, based on what appears to be a deadball year?

Paul Sporer: I’m probably just expanding my window of streamer-worthy arms given how offense is going right now

Big Boyz: Rank these Big Boyz: Vogelbach, Tellez, beer, walker

Paul Sporer: Tellez, Walker, Vogey, Beer

Akil Badidn’t: Sell high on any fly ball pitcher having early success buoyed by humidity early.

Paul Sporer: Not a terrible idea, especially those w/fringe talent

Kyle: Hey Paul, hope you are doing well man! I have a question for you about strategy in a shallow 12 team Yahoo daily league (3 OF, no CI or MI) with waiver priority instead of FAAB. I had a relatively good waiver priority spot at the start of the year, and Franmil was dropped. I used that waiver to pick him up, and although that particular move did not work, I have found it beneficial to have the 12th waiver spot, which seems strange. I think players become very protective of using their good waiver priority spots and do not use them as often as they should. Now that I am 12th, I use it all the time and am able to get players off waivers where other players are hoping they hit Free Agency so they don’t have to use their good waiver position. What are your thoughts on this?

Paul Sporer: I like it! I’m always down to look for an edge as they are few and far between these days. Sometimes an edge is just league-specific, but that’s all you need sometimes!

Nelson Cruz: Is this a slow start or am I dust?

Paul Sporer: Some of both. Not *this* bad, but also I’m not sure he’s rebounding to the NELSON CRUZ we’re used to

Matt: Any thoughts for someone who spent a LOT of money on Harper this year?

Paul Sporer: He is the 19th ranked player so far this year

Guest: Rasmussen vs. Helsley who makes more of an impact this season?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Helsley. I think Rasmussen is a 5-and-dive which will undercut his W potential. Helsley won’t match Rasmussen’s Ks, but it’ll be close w/great ratios, some Ws and some SVs

Bobson Dugnutt: Wacha for real?

Paul Sporer: Not really, no. Streamer at best.

TBD: Time to cut Votto??? Who else?

Paul Sporer: Got discussed in Keep or Cut yesterday: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1047-ke…

Moff Tarkin: Sadly dropping Baddoo, thinking Yadiel H.(Greater upside) over E. Oliveras (lesser across the board production) and Taylor Walls (SB).  Agree? Disagree?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m OK w/it. I’d go Olivares or Walls

Peter: thoughts on pham? is he a must own in shallow h2h leagues assuming he stays healthy?

Paul Sporer: Not a must in shallow lgs, no

Big Joey: Hold onto Gallo? Do you think the pressures of NY have gotten to him? Even dating back to last year when they acquired him, he hasn’t gotten “hot”

Paul Sporer: It’s probably more just range of outcomes for a remarkably volatile profile. I think we throw around that NY pressure stuff too much with little or no proof

Mario: Expect anything from Sixto this year?

Paul Sporer: No

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: Agreed

Saguaros: How long do you keep rolling with a guy if he’s the shits but his metrics point to bad luck?

Paul Sporer: I stick with ’em completely in a lot of cases, especially if it’s a premium profile

Saguaros: What do I do with Kikuchi? Just keep him benched until he starts pitching better? He is an absolute drain on my WHIP. 16-tm league.Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I understand not wanting to cut in a 16 given his insane schedule, but I’m not completely averse to it. At the very least bench until the schedule loosens up

Char’s #1 Fan: How would you value Ward going forward in a dynasty setting?  I’m typically leery of jumping in too fast on breakouts like this (especially ones that come from pretty far off the map), but his profile has so few holes.  What kind of stat line are we looking at going forward?  Would something like 25 HR, 5 SBs and a .350+ OBP be a reasonable baseline?  Kind of sounds like Bryan Reynolds last year and people had him well inside the Top 100 coming into this year.

Paul Sporer: I think you’re right on. I like Ward and think there is real talent there. The loose Reynolds comp absolutely plays with better R/RBI upside bc the team is so much better

Aspiring GM: I have Max Muncy as a versatile reserve.  Is he going to struggle all season following the elbow surgery?

Paul Sporer: I worry about that and that’s why I didn’t draft him despite him playing in ST. Just felt this year was a pass altogether. I root for him but I wasn’t committed to him in fantasy at all

Rickey H.: Kyle Wright future “stud” or future “good SP” (or fluke)?   I know more time needed but how many weeks of this kind of performance to really know?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: There is absolutely stud upside, but would definitely see him as more of a good SP future

Birds in a house have 80gd Speed: So MJ Melendez or W. Contreras ROS (12t m, h2h pts). Worried about secret injury to W. Contreras.?

Paul Sporer: Contreras has a 130 wRC+, 2 HR so far. I gotta stick w/the proven stud who is currently raking

Sean: Was offered Severino and Seiya for Buxton and Ranger Suarez. Which side do you like?

Paul Sporer: Buxton side for sure

Big Joey: Wander Franco or Kyle Tucker and Ozzie Albies in a keep 6 (12 team) forever league?

Paul Sporer: Tucker/Albies. Love Franco, but I’m not giving 2 top-3 round talents for him

Char’s #1 Fan: Josiah Gray hinting at a breakout or is he just getting lucky on balls in play and fly balls right now?

Paul Sporer: I’m not buying that the HRs are fixed yet. Excited by the early start and view him as an appealing profile, but still carries risk

Paul Sporer: No Boxscore Bits today, btw. I had to take Char to the vet (standard visit), but my schedule just couldn’t get BB done today w/everything in addition to the vet visit. Just FYI for those who read!

Slapshot: How are you feeling about Charlie Morton?  Another rough start last night and his stats are terrible so far to start.  Any chance of a rebound, or has age finally caught up with him?

Paul Sporer: There is a chance for a rebound, but his command really isn’t there with anything and he’s not getting curveball whiffs. He’s kinda had a bad start-good middle-meh finish pattern suggesting that he isn’t completely toast and so I’d likely hold even if you have to reserve bc the upside remains strong

Guest: can Bryan Reynolds only be good every other year

Paul Sporer: LOL 2020 is meaningless

Paul Sporer: I feel like he’d have come out of that and I suspect he’ll come out of this

Zach: I can’t seem to crack how to value Seiya Suzuki. On one hand he’s got a 19% chase rate and 6% swstr%, but that’s resulted in a 27% k rate. He also has a 19% barrel rate and has shown early power, but the Bat X has him for .250 and 16HRs ROS. Is this a top 20 OF profile, or just a plate discipline stud with decent power and a lower average?

Paul Sporer: Maybe closer to top 30 with the volatility that his kind of swing-and-miss brings.

Sidewinder: Who do you think will have the better season, Ryan or Megill?

Paul Sporer: I’d have had them very close if Megill had a LOCKED role coming into the season so now that he is starting, they’re virtually a coinflip to me. If pressed, I believe in Megill’s Ks more so I’ll go him

Elusive Saves: Hey Paul – how do I check statistical changes from one game/appearance to the next. Specifically in regards to pitchers. I’d like to see how one outing changes someones SIERA, CSW% and SwStr%.

Paul Sporer: You could check the player graphs for many stats (though only SwStr among the 3 you mention) https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tylor-megill/21318/graphs?statArr=11…

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I drafted Juan Soto 1st overall and am 0-3 in my first three matchups. Please gently lead me away from the edge….

Paul Sporer: Breathe. It’s not his fault!

Kyle: Surprised to see Clevinger out there for 90+ pitches in his first start back? He very much looks out of gas, but hey I guess they really want to get him that shot at a “Win” !

Paul Sporer: Definitely surprised he got to go that long!

Paul Sporer: OK yall, gotta keep it to a tight hour because I’ve got a podcast appearance. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!