Paul Sporer’s Weekly Baseball Chat – February 8th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Hope your Wednesday is going well, let’s talk some baseball!!!

Definitely Not Nick: Is this the year you draft Kyle Gibson with his new slider

Paul Sporer: I drafted him last year!! I held on too long and his nightmare September likely cost me 2nd in my Main Event lol

Paul: Betts at 2b moved him into the top 6 right?

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely OK taking him that high even as OF only, so yes adding the 2B definitely helps

Kyle: Birchwood Brothers articles are always so great – glad they are back again this year!

Paul Sporer: Love reading their stuff!!

Raleigh: Any hope for reasonable fantasy production out of Donaldson or Rendon?

Paul Sporer: It all comes down to health with them. If they find it, then yes, I believe the skills remain strong enough to be quite good

Noot Doot’s: As a biased Cardinals fan, am I overvaluing Nootbar for this coming season? Thinking 30 homer potential

Paul Sporer: You might enjoy my tidbit on him here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-outfielder-rankings/

Jim Leyland Palmer: Afternoon Paul, what is the best way to asses your needs during the season in a H2H category format? Ex. sometimes you win a category that your awful at, but the other guy just happened to be worse that week. How do you go about drawing conclusions on where you need to improve? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: That can be tough bc of the up and down nature of H2H, so you probably need to assess how you’re winning categories and if it’s by small edges in one or another week over week when you’re not losing it, then that’s probably a weakness. I believe most H2H sites also have tools where you can essentially see a Roto standing which should also help you identify strengths & weaknesses

Alicia: Hey Paul, always appreciate your insights.  In a 12 tm 6×6 obp league who do you like most as a keeper value:

Alicia: whoops got cut off: McCarthy, O Gonzalez, Santander, Peña (all would be forfeiting last round picks as they were FA pickups)

Paul Sporer: I’d go with McCarthy as the #1 for sure with Santander close, too. The OBP piece really stings Peña and could also hurt OG this year given his shaky plate profile

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: Hi Paul…love the content you guys are pumping out. Thanks! That’s all.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Just getting started here with the official start of the fantasy season happening Sunday around 9:30-10pm CT once the Super Bowl is done… OK, maybe it’s only official to me, but that truly kicks it off IMO!

Farhandrew Zaidman: Not fantasy related, but the Cards DFAing James Naile on his birthday is rouuuuugh.

Paul Sporer: Oof, that really stings!!

Good: Nick Solak breakout this year?

Paul Sporer: He’s in the right park!! (Cincy) but I’m not sure the skills or PT there. If something opened up where Solak was going to play a lot, I’d probably go for him in deeper leagues

ScottTINSTAAPP: Do you think there is any unlocked power in Keibert’s bat? Also, do you think they might ramp up his PA to over 500 this year? Projections seem light

Paul Sporer: I’m not so sure about pop, but I think there’s major AVG upside. I literally just did my projection for him before this chat and wound up on just 11 HRs… though that is a jump from last year’s 7

Raleigh: The number one hitter in each league you recommend avoiding in fantasy drafts.  thanks

Paul Sporer: I’m not that strident against anyone but if I have to land on a name, it’s probablyyyyy Michael Harris at his price. I love Money Mike as a player, I really do, but I worry we’re already paying full price despite some potential pitfalls in the profile, particularly the K & BB rates. Power and speed rules the day, though, so he could probably even outrun a major AVG fall off so if he’s your guy, I don’t want to push ppl off him. I’m just not paying the premium this year

Jim Leyland Palmer: Thank you Paul – GO TIGERS!

Paul Sporer: yw!

I Used to be Mel Clark: Is there a reason Freddy Peralta doesn’t get more love? I will gladly grab him in the SP 40-50 range any chance I can get.

Paul Sporer: Definitely the health, but if you feel comfortable that the health risk is covered in the price then I totally get jumping on board. He’s still electric when he pitches!

cavebird: I am surprised that I have not seen a bunch of articles about how the ban of the shift will help certain hitters.  Any thoughts who might benefit the most?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s 2 things: 1) it’s not outright banned so teams will no doubt figure ways to adjust but also 2) there’s no real way to identify who will really benefit because while guys definitely have profiles and trends in terms of how they hit the ball, that individual distribution still changes year to year which makes it hard to predict who will really jump with this unknown. Someone like Seager keeps getting cited for this, but the thing with him is that his AVG is set to regress regardless of shift changes

Insert Witty Name Here: Casty was down last year because he was hurt, right? Would you buy low on him?

Paul Sporer: Yes it absolutely seems like he was ailing and trying to play through it (in addition to an actual IL stint) and I’m definitely buying back https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2022-biggest-hitter-busts/

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. I asked this question a couple months ago, but wanted to reconfirm with you with keeper decisions becoming imminent:

12tm, 7×7 roto, $275 budget for 24 spots, keep 3:
A. Kirk ($8); W. Adames ($10); S. Alcantara ($35); S. McClanahan ($27); N. Lodolo ($6) — you previously said Kirk, Sandy, Lodolo for the record

Paul Sporer: I’m still on that trio with Adames in the 4-spot if you prefer him over one of them

PSUEds: Hey Paul! Are you doing a Beat Paul Sporer Online Championship this year? Looking forward to jumping in!

Paul Sporer: I am! Date announced soon!!!

Seany: How much do you love Christian Walker this season?

Paul Sporer: I like him a good bit. He’s my #9 1B and I don’t even have him putting up another 30 HR season to do so – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-first-base-rankings/

John Olerud’s Helmet: Rank these Pauls: Konerko, Sporer, Bunyon, Shore and Revere

Paul Sporer: Konerko, Revere, Sporer (I like myself, I’m not going self depreciation here!), Bunyan, casting a pall, Shore

Colton: Hey Paul! Hope you’re well this afternoon! Offered a trade in my league, sending Pablo Lopez for Tyler O’Neill with even salaries and satisfying needs on both teams. Do you think that’s fair value or am I undervaluing Lopez/overvaluing O’Neill?

Paul Sporer: This feels really fair. Both have a looming health question but when healthy are studs in their respective fields. This checks out for me. I would lean O’Neill (bc I always lean hitter over pitcher in keeper trades when talent & needs are essentially equal), but I have no issue w/either side

Guest: How do we know when to give up on a prospect in fantasy? How much time do you give them to figure it out? I am thinking about Tork, Kelenic, Abrams, Adell, Gore, etc.

Paul Sporer: We can never really know, right? But I think we have to look at core skills and make the best decisions with what we have. With Adell & Kelenic, their major swing-and-miss issues create a rough uphill path to figuring it out and I’ve definitely lowered my ceiling of both. They’re both still under 600 PA (just 1 PA apart at 558/557) and while I will make decisions about players before the 1000 PA threshold, I still recognize small samples and the volatility of them.

Abrams and Tork are essentially baseball babies with sub-405 PA apeice (405 cherry picked obv bc Tork has 404, but it’s still a small sample). I haven’t made any real change on either’s outlook right now and I’ll gladly take the discount based on their unimpressive debuts. Gore’s 70 IP has him in a similar class to these two in terms of not making any changes to his outlook, but he was also better than them relatively speaking as there’s something to build on with a 23% K rate and mid-4.00s SIERA/FIP (which isn’t great, but not bad either)

tumtum: Why are you into O.Cabrera?

Paul Sporer: Power/speed supersub which gives him multiple ways to extended PT. If he finds 500 PA, there’s mid-teens HR and SB potential, even if the swing-and-miss short circuits his AVG a bit

Dave: I own Alek Thomas in a dynasty league but I’m not especially enthusiastic about it. Should I hang onto him or trade him now while he still has a bit of his top prospect glow?

Paul Sporer: Maybe check in on the offers and see if you like one but I understand if the returns are underwhelming bc of his bleak playing time outlook right now.

JWR: Pet peeve alert–with all of the hundreds of stats available on the site, how can Fangraphs not have OPS allowed for pitchers?  Any chance that this could be added?  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I can certainly ask!

JWR: Appreciate the “all in one place” fantasy page that has been set up at Fangraphs but it would be better if the dates of each individual article was listed since some of the pieces are “hot off the press” while many of the articles are months old and presumably need to be updated.

Paul Sporer: I do that with the Mining the News & Market Watch ones for that exact reason

Mr. Fister: Is the shift ban being overrated?  Teams are just going to put one guy a hair left of second base with two others on the first base side to essentially “shift” anyways.  2B not being allowed on the outfield grass is really the only thing that changes, am I wrong?

Paul Sporer: Nope, I’ve been making a very similar point all offseason!

Paul Sporer: JWR, I got a quick response… while we don’t have OPS straight up, we do have OBP, SLG, and wOBA on the splits leaderboard https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitA…

Hey Holmes: Hi Paul. Do you think Clay Holmes, barring injury, can remain the Yankees closer all year. He had some high highs and some low lows last year. Wonder who shows up in 2023.

Paul Sporer: Healthy Holmes absolutely can, yes. That health – as it is for soooo many people – is the key!

Scrapper: What starting pitcher do you believe you like more than the masses (and why)?

Paul Sporer: At the high end, Shane Bieber. I still think he’s an absolute stud and believe the K rate can push back toward the his 2019-21 level of 33%. He is going as SP16, but he’s 7th for me

todd: Where I’m picking in the first round of my two catcher keep 5 AL only, Varsho is likely to be the best player available. Worth taking him when I already have Rutschman?

Paul Sporer: I’m certainly open to it. Because Varsho is the wonderful non-catching catcher, his volume isn’t held down by the position like most Cs. So whereas with a standard catcher I might think it was an over-commitment of resources and the lowered volume could hurt you a bit as opposed to getting a regular hitter, Varsho is a regular hitter in terms of volume while qualifying at C plus there’s the added benefit of draining the C pool even further for your leaguemates (without hurting yourself in the process)

Kyle: What’s your approach to drafting deGrom this year? In at current price or just plain out?

Paul Sporer: I’m not entirely out. He’s not someone I would stack on multiple teams, but he’s still inning-for-inning the best the game has to offer and we’re just not good enough at predicting injuries to say he is definitely going to be limited again this year so I’m open to taking the shot with him. The added injury risk he carries over other starters is mitigated by his overall talent and the fact that every pitcher carries massive injury risk just by virtue of pitching

Luke S: Still recovering from the devastating Expos World Series loss

Paul Sporer: It was truly brutal

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

No joy in Mudville tonight. twitch.tv/videos/1729780…

6 Feb 2023

We’re trading Shui tonight!

Jeff: Ranking Paul Konerko ahead of Paul Revere feels like treason

Paul Sporer: Revere hit one homer, Konerko had 439!

Grab your 3B: how would you rank? Muncy, Jung, Rendon, Donaldson

Paul Sporer: Jung, Muncy, Rendon, Donaldson — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-third-base-rankings/

Paul Sporer: 50 feels too low for JD, but what’s weird is that my projection really isn’t too far from the pack on his FG page, but that slotted 50th on the projection sheet I’m using (https://www.smartfantasybaseball.com/)

Jalen Rose: I know who Scrapper is in real life! (He’s in a Strat League of mine)

Paul Sporer: Scrapper, you’ve been found out!

Colton: Is there a world where we see Lux get a full run this season? Or are they going to run a platoon with him and Rojas as the short side of it?

Paul Sporer: I feel like / am hoping he can play OF when Rojas is playing short, but right now he is being considered the everyday SS: https://www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/gavin-lux-dodgers-gm-confirms-the-…

Pedro: I can keep Framber at $17 or Springs at $6 in an AL only 5×5.  Help!  Worried about Framber’s workload

Paul Sporer: I like Framber, but he’s not $11 better than Springs for me. Springs had a season to take pride in and there’s reason to believe he can continue being a stud in 2023 so sign me up for him at $6

Tommy: Hey Paul, SV/HD league who would you rather keep? J. McCarthy in the 15th or Andres Munoz in the 22nd?

Paul Sporer: Love Muñoz and his insane upside, but I’m going McCarthy. RPs are just super volatile and I have to go for the guy who has a real shot at 30 SBs

Peter: Hey Paul, How would you rank Judge, J-Rod, Acuna, Tucker and Alvarez?

Paul Sporer: Just posted my OF rankings this week! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-outfielder-rankings

Salty: Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Going down Mitch Keller avenue   for the 4th consecutive season, will I be fooled again, or will keeping the faith pay off this year?

Paul Sporer: He just can’t really hurt us after pick-500 so I don’t mind seeing if he can build on the decent 2022 output. He needs to really start chiseling that 1.40 WHIP, though!

Joey: I am struggling with my last keeper. Who would you taken between Jazz (2 keeps left), Vargas (3 keeps left) and Jordan Walker (4 keeps left)? 10 team hth with obp.

Paul Sporer: In a 10-teamer, I feel like I have to go for more bankable production which is Jazz. I love the news that Jordan Walker has a great chance to break camp and that has me taking him in leagues much higher than I was and I even like Miguel Vargas to have a solid season this year, but Jazz has almost been a 30-30 guy per 162 and while we need to see him stay healthy, the upside is just too rich

Buff: If/when Jordan Walker comes up this season, who is most likely to lose playing time in the Cards’ outfield?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine Juan Yepez loses that DH time and the 4 of O’Neill, Carlson, Nootbaar, and Walker take on LF-CF-RF-DH in some form or fashion

James: 15 Keepers. 11 Team Roto.  Last spot, HD’s or Os Cabrera OF/Util  ? Thank you

Paul Sporer: Does HD’s mean Holds in this case or is that Hunter Dozier? Regardless, it’s Oswaldo Cabrera for me. As mentioned earlier, I’m a big fan of his!

Guest: 11 team roto keeper.  Like T. Stephans HD’s or O.Cabrera?

Paul Sporer: It was Holds! I do like Stephan, but definitely still Cabrera!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!