Paul Sporer’s Weekly Baseball Chat – August 24th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello and welcome everyone! This will now be an hourlong breakdown of Oneil Cruz’s 122.4 mph batted ball!

Ag: What’s the deal with Alejandro Kirk lately? Avg still been there but production way down since June. Pull % down, maybe the culprit?

Paul Sporer: Could definitely see it being the pull rate. Feels mostly like standard regression as he was out of his gourd in May/June. Not too worried!

Patrick Ryan: 122.4 that’s fast huh?

Paul Sporer: Insane! Oneil Cruz is bananas!

HappyFunBall: You mean the single?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Dave: Any teams with particularly soft schedules for September whose hitters you’re looking to stream?

Paul Sporer: Haven’t researched that just yet

Kevin: what are you doing with Hader? Is it crazy to drop him in a 10 team roto?

Paul Sporer: If I need saves at all, I’m probably still not cutting him but I’m certainly fine sitting. BTW, he is now cuttable on ESPN. He was on the undroppable list, but a little nudging got that squared away for y’all

Dave: Is Oneil Cruz bananas enough that he’s playable in 12 team mixed leagues in 2023?

Paul Sporer: Maybe. It’s definitely an open question. While he is indeed bananas, I was careful in my words and went with what instead of descriptors that would suggest he’s awesome bc he simply hasn’t been yet. And his plate skills make it so that he will need to improve if he wants to be awesome. Lotta swing and miss right now. It’s electric when he connects, but need more connections. Draftable for sure, but might still have periods of droppability in 10s and 12s next year

Kyle: Looking for validation to cut Cronenworth or Correa. The former has been better, plus eligible at multiple positions. Both of them are redundant on my team. Any thoughts? Or hold both?

Paul Sporer: I know SS is deep, but didn’t realize Correa is only 28th on the Razzball player rate despite a 126 wRC+. No standout category and some missed time will do that, but I still lean his way despite being a mega Croney fan. I imagine this is a 10 or 12-teamer? I can behind cutting either in those formats, but prob still want to keep one and it’s Correa

Casas: Are they really going to keep me down? Thx!

Paul Sporer: I think Triston Casas is a good candidate for a September expansion call-up. If you had told me Bobby Dalbec would have a 78 wRC+ on August 24th, I’d have said “well yeah, duh, look at that swing-and-miss” but then I’d have definitely thought Casas would have at least 100 PA by now. Casas did miss a chunk of time, but he’s back now so September seems likely

Chicken Little: My pitching ratios are cratering and I’ve dropped out of first place and the sky is falling and we’re all gonna die! Fantasy baseball is just grand. How are your teams holding up, Paul?

Paul Sporer: Hanging in there in my competitive ones. I vacillate 2nd-4th in my Main Event based how many SPs I have on a given night (lotta tight SP categories). 1st isn’t impossible, but will take the duration of the season and a lot of good fortune. My Main is living up to its name as it is my primary focus right now. Should make the playoffs in my H2H, doing solid in Tout & Razzslam, medium in TGFBI, but crummy in LABR.

Keith: Is there one strategy/thing you did different this season that has made a significant impact on your teams?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily this season specifically, but I’ve been putting a much larger focus on FAAB and when to cut players who aren’t helping and it has improved my success. It’s always league dependent and with the NFBC lgs having 0 trades and 0 IL spots, FAAB is massively important so it has become a focus

James: In hindsight, what should I have seen with Bo Bichette in order to have avoided him?

Paul Sporer: Maybe just somehow knowing about the squish ball they’re using this year? Some may recall I was suspect of his SBs coming into last year, worried he may be like 2 other guys who ran in the minors but never brought it to the majors at the same level – Joc Pederson & George Springer. So then he goes out and drops a 25-26 on us and I figured hey I got that wrong then, he can excel at running in the majors… of course he goes 7-14 this year. I don’t really see anything that telegraphed him being a bust. Perhaps others did, but I’d want to read the spring analysis behind it bc I don’t recall him on any bust lists this preseason

God why: Why does Mitch Keller have to be the way that he is

Paul Sporer: To tease and infuriate us

Andrew Triggskaedekaphobia: How do you go about preparing for H2H playoffs? They seem so frustratingly luck-based.

Paul Sporer: They are, but that’s kinda by design. Best you can do is try to do some schedule prep, but even that can be fraught with danger if you plan too far and things change on you.

Guest: Ty France has hit poorly since ASG, is he worth dropping for Nate Lowe?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m OK with that move. I wonder how much of France’s struggles are the wrist and just not striking the ball well enough. He has a microscopic .220 BABIP since returning but also an 84 mph Exit Velo, 3rd lowest among qualified hitters in that time: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y…

Joe: Is Cade Cavalli’s promotion worth running to the wire for, lightly jogging to the wire for, casually walking to the wire for or not worth getting up out of the chair for in a deep mixed league?  thanks

Paul Sporer: I’d probably go light jog with team needs determining if I push harder or not at all. If you need Ws or QS, he’s not your savior. If you want Ks with a shot at some solid-to-good ratios, I like taking the chance!

Xavier: Which young slugger appeals more ROS: Oscar Gonzales or E. Montero? Thanks Paul.

Paul Sporer: COL only has 13 more home gms (24 road) not including today’s so I’ll go Gonzalez. The weeks of Sept. 5 (MIL/ARI) & Sept. 19 (SF/SD) are our last Coors week of the season!!

Kevin: you starting Giolito @BAL tonight? I’m dying for QS but he’s 0 for his last 6

Paul Sporer: He has been remarkably frustrating but I’d take this shot. Camden Yards has played a lot nicer with the wall move, too, and honestly that’s a big reason why I’d take this shot. I wouldn’t with old Camden for fear of multiple HRs. BAL is good, but I still believe Giolito is too despite these struggles and I’m going for it tonight

Dave: Is Albert Pujols worth a roster spot in 12 team leagues for September, in the year 2022?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I don’t think so. The magical week was amazing, but unless it sets up with another flurry of lefties, I don’t see it

Holding On: A Corona, and Palm Trees. On a scale of 1-10, how insane are you from this torturous repetition?

Paul Sporer: I get the snarky electric car lady and the visceral disdain I have for that woman knows no bounds! (in case you’re in the chat, I’m just kidding Becky, it’s not your fault that MLB AtBat plays it first on EVERY. SINGLE. AD. BREAK!!!!)

Brandon: Worth hanging on to Ketel Marte in a 12 teamer? His statline seems kinda bland

Paul Sporer: No issues with a cut in 12s or smaller. Bland-but-above-average production (in wRC+, OPS+, OPS… or whatever composite stat you like) can trick us sometimes in fantasy as with Correa earlier. Marte has a 114 wRC+ but sits just 25th among 2B!!!

Phil: You see Harper went yard twice yesterday in his rehab game? I need that mofo back sooo badly for the stretch run here.

Paul Sporer: I can’t wait for him to get back! He is so fun to watch, so incredibly elite!

Ken: Should Taylor Ward be on a roster or the wire in 12-teamers?

Paul Sporer: He needn’t be

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

Taylor Ward’s early season run is still inflating his #s, but I’m not sure he should be rostered rn:
First 38 gms .333/.443/.644, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 30 R (43-111-128 full season pace)
*Missed 9 gms w/hamstring injury*
In 59 gms since inj. .211/.290/.318, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 23 R (16-49-63)

22 Aug 2022

Paul Sporer: And the shoulder injury he had before the hammy in June is an even bigger issue per Ward himself: https://www.ocregister.com/2022/07/30/angels-taylor-ward-believes-hitt…

Cito: Mid-week FAAB tonight in a points league and need to make some $0 bids for a couple SP streamers. Anything wrong with this claim order? Steele @ MIL, Cobb @ MIN, Smyly @ MIL, Otto v DET, Freeland @ NYM

Paul Sporer: Dig the order!

Brit: I haven’t seen much fantasy chatter around Meneses, but he’s been solid for me as a needed injury fill-in. How you liking him so far/what’s the long-term outlook there?

Paul Sporer: I’m totally chill riding the wave. Could be this year’s Frank Schwindel (right down to the coming back to earth next year, but we can worry about that next year!)

Jeff: I’m sitting comfortably in the money in my 12 teamer. The team in 1st place is on God Tier. Thanks for all your work you do for those who are invested!

Paul Sporer: I’m happy to help even if it’s in a tiny way. I’m in a God Tier situation myself with Scott Jenstad leading my Main Event. He’s 20+ pts clear of a group of us and while I won’t rule out catching him, I have to be realistic and it’s a loooonnnngggssshhootttt!!! Let’s just keep grinding and secure those money spots. We always want to take the title, but securing the money spots even when the title is out of the picture is how you become a winning player

Paul Sporer: The NFBC studs on Twitter don’t win every league they’re in, but their cash rates are obscene!!

Holding On: When your team all stops hitting at the same time, how do you know when to make changes and when to ride it out? It’s getting late and I need to hold on to that top spot. Getting a little antsy.

Paul Sporer: Still lean on the larger samples before cutting anyone who has been around for a while. I’m still not cutting my studs in most cases, but there are likely at least a couple spots you can churn to try & jumpstart the sputtering offense

Seiya: I picked Seiya Suzuki in my dynasty for next year. Is there anything to suggest improvement is coming or that he is better than he’s been this year?

Paul Sporer: Nothing in the profile that SCREAMS breakout, but I don’t rule out growth just by virtue of getting more experience in the majors. I’d be plenty happy if I had him in dynasty!

Max Kepler: I’m still 60% rostered but I haven’t hit for power in quite some time. Is it time to drop me or do I have a end of year power surge in me?

Paul Sporer: We discussed his power outage on the pod yesterday – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1091-po… It’s rough and I don’t really project a power spike from here on out. I think he’s cuttable right now. I cut him in a 15-team mixed this past weekend.

Don Juan: Oscar Gonzalez a serviceable OF3 in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: I think there has to be someone better. He’s not top 40 yet

Jon: Does Harrison Bader play every day when he gets back, and what kind of stat line do you think he has over the last month of the season?

Paul Sporer: He should. They are realizing Hicks can’t cut it right now and Oswaldo Cabrera is unlikely to block Bader. Bader being an elite defender definitely helps, too. We could see his pwr tick up in NYY and I’ll be buying in upon his return and next year (I was huge on him this year as a breakout).

HappyFunBall: Bader is a speed-first guy with a foot injury. Hard pass.

Paul Sporer: For the rest of this year, that’s not out of pocket. Just depends how healthy he is upon return. I could definitely see a yellow or even red light but I’ll still buy back in ’23 even if his September isn’t great

Joe: When you are using a tool like the FG auction calculator, is it better to just pick one projection system or to take a blend of a few (like a mix of ZIPs, Steamer, The Bat X)

Paul Sporer: I generally lean 1 myself, but the ATC projection is an amalgam of other systems so if you prefer that, ATC could be your choice!

KCbbq: Do you think Kerry Carpenter can do enough these last 5-6 weeks to earn a starting OF gig to start next season?

Paul Sporer: I’m absolutely rooting for it, but I’m not particularly confident. If he could somehow get those AAA plate skills to stick (12% K & BB rates after 28% K/6% BB in AA), that’d be awesome, but they’re so different than his career standard that I’m not holding my breath on that. Might just be a standard all-or-nothing power type with compromised AVG and not enough R/RBI bc the Tigers stink

KCbbq: In a 12 team AL only keeper league ($260 draft day budget) who would you prefer for $1….Royce Lewis or Matt Carpenter? Lewis coming off second ACL surgery and Carpenter a FA but Yanks are said to want him back.

Paul Sporer: Looove what Carp did, but I gotta go Lewis even with the ACL

Big League Chewbacca: If you’re starting a league from scratch, what do you view the optimal buy-in amount as being so that people are incentivized to finish in the $ and pay attention?  Is there a general rule of thumb…for example 1.0% of league members average salary? (if avg. team member salary was $50K, entry fee would be $500/person).

Paul Sporer: Yeah it definitely depends on the managers playing. If these are friends and you know or at least have an idea that they’d be down for $500, pitch that. That’s a damn good buy in IMO to keep folks engaged. Even half that is pretty sizable for many folks. You can also have small penalties for finishing dead last to encourage ppl keep grinding – don’t make em too crazy though or it’ll just turn ppl off. You want to still make it fun.

Could also award 1st overall pick the following year to the 1st team out of the money so it’d be like 5th, 12th, 11th, etc… as the draft order in a 12-teamer. Can also do a minimum pts threshold required to avoid a nominal penalty ($50ish bucks if it’s a $500 buy-in) so people can try to tank for the 1st pick if you leave it 12th-1st pick order but if they just CRATER the team, they lose 1st pick (say move back to 5th pick or something) and pay $50. So like 30 roto pts or something. Stuff like that. Don’t have to institute all that bc you don’t want it to be uber complicated!

Zee: Thoughts on Stone Garrett? I am debating which of him and Bubba Thompson to hang on to in a deep roto 16 teamer. Need the bags, but I can only make up so much ground that it isn’t worth hurting the other cats.

Paul Sporer: Given your last sentence, I go Garrett. I’m spamming SBs and took on Thompson bc his lack of ANYTHING else isn’t killing me. Garrett has 25+ HRs in his last 2 MILB seasons!

Kate: I’m hearing a lot of concern about Oneil Cruz’s whiff rate so far at the MLB level.  Is this a little overblown?  I understand the long levers give scouts some pause in terms of how much contact he’ll make, but it’s a pretty small sample so far and he was actually pretty damn good making contact in AA and AAA the last two years (11-13% swinging strike rates).  This looks more to me like an adjustment period than some kind of continued issue.  Fair?

Paul Sporer: Fair that it might just take some time to adjust, but I don’t think it’s new. 12% is MLB lg avg so if he’s doing that in the minors, it’s reasonable to expect him higher in the majors, which he also was in the minors at times prior to ’21 with a 16% mark ’19. I did like how he shaved it down a bit repeating A ball from 2017 to 2018 which lends credence to the adjustment piece, but swing-and-miss was always going to be a part of his game and it is SUBSTANTIAL right now. The devastation he inflicts when he does make contact may well be enough to outrun the trouble of even an mid-30%s K rate, but if we don’t see something more in the mid-to-high 20s, it’ll be tough for him to be a fantasy superstar. He can be successful and post positive wRC+ totals, but it could be Gallo-esque where you’re planning around horrendous AVGs so you’ll have to plan to take on Cruz in drafts so you can withstand the AVG

Pauly Baby: The Red Sox could turnover a lot of players at years end. if you were the GM, which pitcher and which hitter would you seek in trade?

Paul Sporer: Sorry I’m a touch confused for I am idiot, am I being Chaim in this instance seeking players from other teams or am I another team’s GM and you’re asking which Red Sox I like?

Zee: Ozuna a cut at this point?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Jimmy: McCarthy worth a start over Springer? I need bags!

Paul Sporer: Yes! Great example of playing your standings instead of just best player available. Springer is a G on a great team, but he has 10 SBs all year. So does McCarthy… in half as many PA! Plus, McCarthy is essentially matching Springer since July 1st with a 134 wRC+ to Springer’s 135 and McCarthy is crushing him 9 to 2 in SBs!

Pauly Baby: You are Chaim looking to bring in one each of a pitcher and hitter.

Paul Sporer: OK, I’m calling up Miami for the pitcher and just trying to work something out. You can go any number of ways with who to get from them, just make sure to offer them a bat (perhaps the aforementioned Casas – though I like Lewin Diaz in MIA a good bit so they might not see 1B as a need)! Maybe a Bryan Reynolds for prospects deal with PIT could work on the hitting end.

Zee: Thx for your answers to my q’s bud, I value your take highly so greatly appreciate you providing some insight!! 🙂

Paul Sporer: No problem at all! (BTW, I didn’t expound on the Ozuna one, but he’s been bad since ’21 now and he’s not playing since the DUI so slam dunk cut for me)

Zee: I often find that the hardest part about deciding who to drop is determining if it might help someone you’re competing with if they pick them up! I f’in love the complexity and the grind that is fantasy baseball!!!

Paul Sporer: Yesss that is the major thing to consider now in the homestretch. Not to make it all about my Main again, but I’m spamming Ks & Ws so I’m going 9 SPs despite having Pressly/Bautista (I was only at risk of 1 SV pt while Ks/Ws offer a TON of points). I haven’t cut either yet because I don’t want to give someone further behind me in SVs that one guy who will help them leapfrog me and cost me more points. On the other end, it would eat up some FAAB and perhaps make things a little cheaper for my poor ass ($26 out of $1000 left). So yeah, lots to consider and it’s what makes the game SO fun!

Caps: I am thinking of picking up a 2nd Catcher (on a 1 C league) as I have games I can make up at this position. Rolling with Keibert and thinking of Bethancourt, Stubbs, Fortes. Need power cats the most. Who do you like?

Paul Sporer: I’m still in on Keibert long-term, but I might consider dumping him and going Bethancourt/Fortes if you wanna do the 2-C thing to maximize your PA since neither play daily. Stubbs has the most pop this year but just doesn’t play much at all behind JT Realmuto

Hunkus Wagner: Merrifield or Segura ROS? gotta be segura with whit’s playing time going away, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m 100% with you on Segura

Cito: Logan Webb just gave up 6 ER in 4.2 IP for his worst start of the season against… the Tigers lol. “Isn’t fantasy baseball fun?” he says, as he picks up chunks of his own hair from the floor.

Paul Sporer: And he took a no-no into the 5th. He was nickel and dimed big time which is little comfort since the runs still count the same. The 6 Ks are a aluminum foil lining (can’t do silver lining given the ERA/WHIP & considering the opponent lol)

Fantasy MVP?: Who is the fantasy MVP in each league this year (value related to draft cost)?

Paul Sporer: Adolis Garcia or early draft Julio Rodriguez (he spiked late March but was v cheap in the winter and early March) and then probably Dansby Swanson or Tony Gonsolin in the NL. Nestor Cortes & Kyle Wright deserve love too

Jung Bong Jovi: Hi Paul!  If I have one minor league spot in a 12-man keeper, would you use it on Corbin Carroll or Josh Jung?  I don’t think I have 12 viable keepers otherwise.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Jung unless you have a speed need. I was wondering why Jung wasn’t yet up since he’s been insane at AAA and should definitely get tested in the majors. I found this tweet which makes a strong point about it:

 

Rangers Updates

@TXUpdate

 

The good news: I expect Josh Jung’s debut to be either tomorrow or at home this Friday against Detroit. He has not been called up at this point likely so he does not lose eligibility for Rookie of the Year next year. If he were to win ROY, Rangers get a compensatory draft pick

24 Aug 2022

Caps: With moustaches very de rigeur these days, I can see you rocking a stache with a Tigers hat Magnum PI styles!! DO IT!!!!

Paul Sporer: I have a Hawaiian shirt that really sets off the look. Unfortunately he didn’t have glasses, but I can’t take em off so it’ll have to be nerd Magnum PI, but I’ll be rocking it in Arizona for the Fall League lol

Caps: I’ve been streaming SP selectively of late, and some are having consistent success which makes it hard to drop them. Manning & Smyly come to mind. I still drop em but I think about it late at night when I ping pong on where to spend my FAAB money!

Paul Sporer: Any thought to team-streaming some of your faves so you’re not casting them back out into the pool? I’ve dealt with the same remorseful cuts which is why I made the Team Streamer tier. I certainly didn’t make up the concept but I just wanted to differentiate from standard streaming when you cut the guy after use. Manning looked AMAZING today. Elite prospect who MANYYYYY gave up on way too quickly. He’s no more a hit now than he was a bust last year, either, but at least we are seeing strong glimpses of the upside that was suggested in the minors

Homer: Just got here…what did I miss?!?

Paul Sporer: LOL everything!

Caps: Ironic (nerd) Magnum would probably be fire in Austin!

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure!!

Caps: Other notable players who popped nicely this year. Thairo and Steider out of nowhere come to mind

Paul Sporer: Definitely! Strider probably resided on multiple teams in a lot of 10/12 tm leagues before finally securing his rotation spot in late-May. And Thairo Estrada has quietly been REALLY good – 11 HR/16 SB. He’s been a top 100 overall player. And he’s just 26 yrs old so this might be the beginning of something!

Dave: Even after dealing Peralta Ari has a lot of OF mouths to feed long term Carroll Thomas Varsho McCarthy Garett. Who do you see getting squeezed out?

Paul Sporer: I’m smelling another Jazz-for-Gallen type deal between MIA/ARI!!!

HappyFunBall: That tweet about Josh Jung applies to a whole lot of high-minors top prospects. That’s why Cavalli is debuting on Friday. Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Hendrickson, etc … could be here soon

Paul Sporer: I totally forgot about that new compensation rule and it makes sense, especially for the guys on crap teams. And while Baltimore could definitely use Gunnar Henderson over Rougned Odor, leaving Odor in certainly isn’t killing them or greatly hindering their playoff chances

Setherino: Where do you think Andres Gimenez goes in drafts next year? How much are you buying the breakout?

Paul Sporer: I’m late to the Gimenez train, but I became a convert this year! Respect to those who bought on spec, I wanted to see a little something first so I missed out on the breakout. I’m thinking 5th-7th rd in 15-teamers (6th-9th kinda range in 10-teamers). If he has a huge finish w/5 more HR/SB to reach 20/20, then it moves up another tier or two.

Kyle: Justin is never going to do any of these chats is he? Is he just that busy or doesn’t care to do them?

Paul Sporer: We just never got the date and time ironed out, plus his plate is pretty full so it’s something that can’t just be added in slapdash. It’s on my offseason list and I’ve talked with him as recently as last week about it. He’s still open but agrees that we should start it in the offseason as opposed to just slotting it in down the stretch here. I don’t want to overpromise on anything but that aforementioned list has some cool things on it that I want to accomplish this offseason/setup for next season so stay tuned!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

II Legit II Quit: Harris II over under 50 ADP next year??

Paul Sporer: I’ll sneak this one bc I saw it just as I was about to hit end. Probably right around there leaning earlier. Speed goes high. ATL has a great reputation with young bats, and he’s been electric. There’s a 15-tm draft going on right now with some NFBC folks and it’s going to be run out, so it’s not just a random mock. I’ve only seen a few early rounds and Harris went 48th.

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!