Paul Sporer’s July Starting Pitcher Rankings

July 15, 2023

It’s been too long without an updated SP ranking. I do the SP Chart Monday-Friday, but I know many of y’all want to see everyone ranked 1-150. I decided to do it in the form of my SP Chart, giving a recommendation for 10-, 12-, and 15-team leagues which is a stand-in for shallow, medium, deep setups. An “x” in the particular category means they are pretty much a no doubt start in that format or at least in the team streamer range meaning I don’t cut them when not starting them. If they don’t have the “x” for a particular league type, they are fringe streamers and I’m unlikely to go for them outside of a nice 2-step or a really spicy 1-start against the right opponent.

I only wrote comments for select guys with most of the skips being on the top and low ends as you don’t really need me to tell you that Cole is awesome or than Lyles isn’t so awesome. If you have further questions about anyone, leave a comment! As for IL guys, I took liberty with some who are on the cusp of returning, but made some arbitrary cutoffs. For example, Max Fried is due back later this month, but his ETA is still about 2 wks from now and a lot can change so he was left off. He’s also an easy one because he’s an auto start once he returns.

Next update will be around mid-August for the stretch run.

OK, without further ado:

2023 Post-ASB SP Rankings

RK	PITCHER	TM	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	x	x	x	104.2	3.44	1.09	31%	Just the best IP-for-IP guy going and even if they throw him a few 5-and-dives to manage IP, he has excellent support for Ws
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY	x	x	x	117	2.85	1.12	19%
3	Luis Castillo	SEA	x	x	x	112.1	2.96	1.03	21%
4	Zac Gallen	ARI	x	x	x	118.1	3.04	1.05	22%
5	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	x	x	x	105.1	3.50	1.12	22%
6	Shane McClanahan	TBR	x	x	x	96	2.53	1.17	16%
7	Framber Valdez	HOU	x	x	x	111	2.51	1.05	20%
8	Joe Ryan	MIN	x	x	x	107	3.70	1.01	25%
9	Kevin Gausman	TOR	x	x	x	115.2	3.03	1.13	26%	Splitter toting a 46% K but also .402 BABIP… bad luck or pitch incosistency resulting in too many hangers?
10	Zack Wheeler	PHI	x	x	x	104.1	4.05	1.19	22%
11	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	x	x	x	95.1	2.55	1.05	21%
12	Carlos Rodón	NYY	x	x	x	10.1	5.23	1.16	9%	High slot for someone w/just 10 IP so far but I’m putting him back in the rotation everywhere
13	Tyler Glasnow	TBR	x	x	x	41.2	4.10	1.22	27%
14	Pablo López	MIN	x	x	x	111	3.89	1.09	24%
15	Corbin Burnes	MIL	x	x	x	113.1	3.73	1.11	16%
16	Max Scherzer	NYM	x	x	x	87.2	4.31	1.23	21%	I’m a little tepid on the Mets aces given their first halves, but nowhere near sitting them and wouldn’t be surprised if both are Top 10 in the 2H
17	Justin Verlander	NYM	x	x	x	75	3.72	1.23	12%
18	Aaron Nola	PHI	x	x	x	119	4.39	1.11	19%	Elements are still there, evidenced by his 3.85 SIERA, but this wouldn’t be the first time he’s languished through a >4.00 ERA despite skills to the contrary
19	Jesús Luzardo	MIA	x	x	x	109.1	3.29	1.13	23%
20	George Kirby	SEA	x	x	x	107.2	3.09	1.04	19%
21	Zach Eflin	TBR	x	x	x	102.1	3.25	0.99	22%	I believe in him, I believe in the Rays, and I’m happy to check in to see if anyone is looking to sell high and will take something more SP40-45 range of value
22	Logan Webb	SFG	x	x	x	126	3.14	1.11	21%
23	Joe Musgrove	SDP	x	x	x	79.1	3.29	1.15	19%
24	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	x	x	x	120.1	4.64	1.26	13%	One of the bigger 1H disappointments and yet I’m just not convinced he’s anywhere close to a near-5.00 ERA so I’m not moving off him much
25	Kyle Bradish	BAL	x	x	x	84	3.32	1.18	16%	Not sure we’ve seen the best of him yet this yr especially the way he’s running lately: 2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 20% K-BB in his L8
26	Blake Snell	SDP	x	x	x	98	2.85	1.22	20%
27	Justin Steele	CHC	x	x	x	91.1	2.56	1.06	17%
28	Julio Urías	LAD	x	x	x	70.1	4.35	1.11	19%
29	José Berríos	TOR	x	x	x	113.1	3.41	1.16	16%	Never really as bad as last year’s 5.23 ERA as the .328 BABIP really hampered him; a 50-pt drop probably has him a little over his skies to the positive now, but still an easy start
30	Sonny Gray	MIN	x	x	x	99.2	2.89	1.27	15%
31	Yu Darvish	SDP	x	x	x	91	4.65	1.26	18%
32	Mitch Keller	PIT	x	x	x	117	3.31	1.12	20%	Major fastball improvement and the shiny new cutter is driving the K surge (+7 pts) despite the same exact 9% SwStr from last yr
33	Reid Detmers	LAA	x	x	x	85.2	4.31	1.28	21%
34	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	x	x	x	117.2	2.83	1.02	17%	Everything working his way right now, including an AL-high 117 IP, but he’s only eclipsed 180 IP 2x in his career
35	James Paxton	BOS	x	x	x	56	2.73	0.98	23%	Sort of a lefty Eovaldi where the talent is never really in question, it’s always about the health piece… he’s a lineup mainstay when upright
36	Dylan Cease	CHW	x	x	x	102.2	4.30	1.34	18%	Velo dip (-1.2 mph) & BABIP regression (+56 pts) have stung him w/2+ H/9 added to the bottom line; was rolling (2.65 in 6 GS) before final start of half (11 H/5 ER v. STL)
37	Lucas Giolito	CHW	x	x	x	112.1	3.45	1.14	18%
38	Logan Gilbert	SEA	x	x	x	108.1	3.66	0.98	20%	Early Ks look like a hot run more than a skill change: 31% in F7; 21% in L11… Put Away rate was excellent early but hasn’t held
39	Tyler Wells	BAL	x	x	x	104.2	3.18	0.93	20%	HR issue remains prominent but with premium control (6%) and insane hit suppression (.202 BABIP, 6.3 H) has him in the Top 15 so far; expect some regression but still an easy start
40	Bobby Miller	LAD	x	x	x	44	4.50	1.23	15%	Core skills and raw stuff are excellent despite hiccups in the results; after 112 IP last yr, shouldn’t have to be managed too tightly to make it to the finish line
41	Freddy Peralta	MIL	x	x	x	92	4.70	1.30	17%	Command & control issues over his L10 have been the culprit behind a 5.79 ERA: BB up 3 pts to 11%, HR sky-high at 2.1, 6+ IP just 3x
42	Andrew Abbott	CIN	x	x	x	41.2	2.38	1.03	21%	Lack of command & control will breed volatility and a tough home park can exacerbate those issues; basically a younger, lefty Cease or Peralta
43	Bryan Woo	SEA	x	x	x	34.2	3.63	1.07	24%	A Main Event bargain bc of 2 IP/6 ER debut the day before bids: only went >$100 in 1 of 41 lgs and then maxxed at $52 in the remaining 12 the following wk
44	Brayan Bello	BOS	x	x	x	86	3.14	1.20	15%	Put together a 2.52 ERA in L13 starts of the 1H including 7 straight QS
45	Bailey Ober	MIN	x	x	x	82.2	2.61	0.97	19%
46	Hunter Brown	HOU	x	x	x	94	4.12	1.33	20%	Still has a 24% K-BB in his L4 where the ERA is 7.23 in 19 IP; was a tough run on the schedule: NYM, at LAD (the lone good start of the 4), at TEX, SEA
47	Shane Bieber	CLE	x	x	x	117	3.77	1.25	13%	Thought he had a decent shot to recover some K% w/last yr’s 14% SwStr, but it’s sunk to 11%; still delivering plenty of good innings, just don’t overrate the name value
48	Braxton Garrett	MIA	x	x	x	92.1	3.70	1.14	23%	Strong command and control can generate strikeouts even if the stuff isn’t off the charts (87 Stuff+)
49	Cristian Javier	HOU	x	x	x	91.1	4.34	1.22	15%
50	Charlie Morton	ATL	x	x	x	104	3.20	1.36	16%
51	Marcus Stroman	CHC	x	x	x	112.2	2.96	1.11	13%
52	Tarik Skubal	DET	x	x	x	8	0.00	0.50	32%	Velo up and stuff looks nasty early on, but it’s just 8 IP so while he’s back in the lineup everywhere for me, I understand if others play it a bit more cautiously
53	Bryce Miller	SEA		x	x	59	3.97	0.95	19%
54	Eury Pérez	MIA		x	x	53.1	2.36	1.09	21%	Obviously being sidelined right not a start anywhere, but now he becomes a tough decision on whether or not to hold in shallow formats
55	Jordan Montgomery	STL		x	x	103	3.23	1.22	16%
56	Lance Lynn	CHW		x	x	103	6.03	1.42	20%	Showing enough upside to stay firmly on my radar and I’m still starting more often than not in most formats (37% K, 6% BB in L5)
57	Chris Bassitt	TOR		x	x	109.2	4.19	1.23	14%
58	Gavin Williams	CLE		x	x	24.2	4.01	1.09	12%
59	Reese Olson	DET		x	x	33.1	4.05	0.99	20%	Back in the rotation; needs to improve w/runners on to maximize his quality stuff (<70% LOB in 2021-23 minors & just 58% in 33 MLB IP)
60	Bryce Elder	ATL		x	x	106	2.97	1.20	11%	Has obliterated his 4.39 career SIERA so far w/a 3.04 ERA as he’s been fantastic w/an 81% LOB but he’s still not an unchallenged start in all formats as regression sets in
61	Clarke Schmidt	NYY		x	x	88	4.40	1.39	16%	Struggled to find any consistency through mid-May (6.30 ERA in 9 GS) but has turned a corner w/a 2.81 ERA in his last 48 IP, though he’s reached 6 IP just once
62	Kutter Crawford	BOS		x	x	61.1	4.11	1.16	18%	Hasn’t exactly followed Schmidt’s pattern, but similar situation where he took some time find his footing and now looks like a strong 2H option
63	Taj Bradley	TBR		x	x	61.1	5.43	1.39	23%
64	Jon Gray	TEX		x	x	99	3.45	1.15	12%
65	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		x	x	76.2	2.70	1.00	21%	8 total Ks in his first 3 starts followed by 72 in his L10 (31% K rate); could be traded to a contender to improve lineup & bullpen support, too
66	Tanner Bibee	CLE		x	x	70	3.34	1.29	15%
67	Michael Wacha	SDP		x	x	85.2	2.84	1.07	14%	Slated to return very soon, but stay tuned for news before getting the veteran righty back in the lineup
68	Aaron Civale	CLE		x	x	57.2	2.65	1.08	12%
69	Domingo Germán	NYY		x	x	91.2	4.32	1.07	17%	Part of that group of arms with a good K-BB but persistent HR issue: Wells is the best of the bunch right now, with German, Heaney, and Kikuchi showing what his downside can be
70	J.P. France	HOU		x	x	70.2	3.31	1.26	10%	Hasn’t reached 5 Ks in any of his L5 outings (12% K) which makes him difficult to trust but it’s hard to pass up his strong ratios
71	Kodai Senga	NYM		x	x	89.2	3.31	1.28	17%	I worry that the ugly control can cause some issues down the stretch, especially if he deals with any fatigue in his 1st MLB season
72	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		x	x	95	3.22	1.14	16%
73	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI		x	x	30.1	3.26	0.99	19%	One of my favorite 2H breakout picks; might be trading some command for control w/a 4% BB but 1.5 HR in 30 MLB IP, love the talent & he’s a team streamer for me everywhere
74	Kenta Maeda	MIN		x	x	36	5.50	1.39	19%
75	Seth Lugo	SDP		x	x	63.2	3.39	1.24	17%
76	Taijuan Walker	PHI		x	x	96.1	4.02	1.25	12%
77	Ranger Suárez	PHI		x	x	62	3.77	1.34	14%
78	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR		x	x	93.1	4.24	1.29	18%	He’s basically downside Tyler Wells as he has less command & control, a worse HR problem, and tougher home park… sit him in the hardest matchups
79	Graham Ashcraft	CIN		x	x	87.2	5.95	1.56	7%	OK I’m doing it, I’m buying back in; big spring breakout was a stone-cold flop w/a 7.17 ERA thru 14 starts, but 3 straight 1 ER outings have my attention (though just 5% K-BB in them)
80	Emmet Sheehan	LAD		x	x	20.2	4.35	1.06	10%	Rookie arm flashing some impressive stuff, though he might not be in the rotation thru the 2H after just 88 IP last yr and 74 IP so far this yr
81	JP Sears	OAK			x	99.2	3.97	1.04	17%	If you’re chasing Ws, he’s obviously a tough start, but he can be your guy if you just want some quality innings
82	Tony Gonsolin	LAD			x	67.2	3.86	1.12	10%
83	Andrew Heaney	TEX			x	86	4.71	1.34	15%	A 4 pt. jump in BB rate puts him on the outside of that little strong K-BB/poor HR guys as his K-BB is the worst since 2015
84	Luis Severino	NYY			x	42.2	7.38	1.80	9%
85	Michael Kopech	CHW			x	86.2	4.47	1.41	12%
86	Nick Pivetta	BOS			x	69	4.83	1.29	17%	Getting a chance at SP w/Whitlock & Houck out; while we’ve been down this road a million times, it’s bc he’s a talented-but-inconsistent arm (2.87 ERA, 34% K-BB in L16 IP)
87	Alex Cobb	SFG			x	89.2	2.91	1.34	17%	Massive BABIP continues to yield a ton of hits, but the 17% K-BB keeps me coming back and starting him where I can take on the WHIP risk
88	Dean Kremer	BAL			x	104	4.59	1.33	17%
89	Logan Allen	CLE			x	62.1	3.47	1.44	14%	Avoided the repercussions of that elevated WHIP before his demotion, but headed back up and will still be a nice team streamer in many formats
90	Dane Dunning	TEX			x	92	2.84	1.13	9%	He’s one of my heart-over-head guys… I know the metrics aren’t super strong, but I just have more trust for him than a 9% K-BB would normally suggest
91	Jack Flaherty	STL			x	92.2	4.27	1.56	10%	I wanttt to believe & the 5 starts of 0-1 ER over his L7 are very encouraging, but the other 2 were 10 H/6 ER duds resulting in a 3.02 ERA/1.55 WHIP over the 42 IP
92	Ryne Nelson	ARI			x	99.1	4.98	1.44	9%
93	Josiah Gray	WSN			x	100.1	3.41	1.44	10%	2 HR In 4 of his L7 is concerning, but 0 HR in the other 3… needs the ERA to cover his ugly WHIP and low W probability
94	Michael Lorenzen	DET			x	87	4.03	1.14	13%	The All-Star righty has sliced his BB rate nearly in half to 6%, making him a WHIP asset despite the modest ERA (well, modest for shallow formats)
95	MacKenzie Gore	WSN			x	89.2	4.42	1.46	18%	3 duds over the L6 where 5 HR in 14 IP have sunk him; 2 pt improvement on BB rate has helped, but control issues still loom along w/this elevated HR
96	Wade Miley	MIL			x	67.2	3.06	1.15	10%
97	Kyle Hendricks	CHC			x	58	3.57	1.09	11%
98	Griffin Canning	LAA			x	74	4.62	1.20	16%	Just 3 HR-free starts expose his biggest problem while a strong 23% K rate has fueled 10 starts of 3 or fewer ER so there’s upside in this arm
99	Michael Soroka	ATL			x	20.1	5.31	1.57	7%	Can see him turning a corner in the summer if his 2018-19 command returns and team context adds to his appeal as Ws can flow if he’s stringing solid 5 IP outings together
100	Matt Manning	DET			x	29	3.72	1.03	9%
101	Alex Wood	SFG			x	50	4.68	1.48	11%
102	Keaton Winn	SFG			x	22	4.09	1.05	10%
103	Alek Manoah	TOR			x	64	5.91	1.80	5%	Skyrocketed back up to 79% roster rate at Y! after the gem at DET & he’ll likely be back to 100% everywhere if drops a strong 2-step next wk (SD, at SEA)
104	Tanner Houck	BOS			x	67.2	5.05	1.26	14%
105	Paul Blackburn	OAK			x	37	4.86	1.54	17%
106	Miles Mikolas	STL			x	115.2	4.12	1.27	11%
107	Kolby Allard	ATL			x	10.2	4.22	1.13	21%
108	Michael Grove	LAD			x	47	6.89	1.55	13%
109	Jaime Barria	LAA			x	56.1	3.20	1.14	13%
110	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN			x	51.2	3.83	1.24	16%	5 HR in B2B early June starts saddled him w/12 of his 21 ER as SP, but even w/that he has a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP/17% K-BB in 8 starts (46 IP)… park is still very scary for a FB pitcher
111	Kyle Gibson	BAL			x	109.2	4.60	1.31	12%
112	Drew Smyly	CHC			x	94	4.31	1.36	11%
113	Steven Matz	STL			x	71.2	4.65	1.51	14%
114	David Peterson	NYM			x	55.1	6.51	1.66	15%
115	Patrick Sandoval	LAA			x	85.2	4.41	1.47	9%
116	Jameson Taillon	CHC			x	71.2	6.15	1.40	13%
117	Brady Singer	KCR			x	94.2	5.80	1.55	10%
118	Carlos Carrasco	NYM			x	61	5.16	1.43	6%
119	Daniel Lynch	KCR			x	47.1	4.18	1.23	9%
120	Tyler Anderson	LAA			x	84	5.25	1.52	8%
121	Bryan Hoeing	MIA				43.1	4.78	1.38	9%
122	Yonny Chirinos	TBR				58	3.88	1.28	4%
123	Rich Hill	PIT				104	4.76	1.44	11%
124	Colin Rea	MIL				80.1	4.71	1.22	12%
125	Brandon Williamson	CIN				46.2	5.21	1.35	10%
126	Cole Irvin	BAL				37.2	5.50	1.49	11%
127	Cody Bradford	TEX				26.2	4.39	1.16	16%
128	Johan Oviedo	PIT				100.1	4.75	1.42	11%
129	Patrick Corbin	WSN				108.2	4.89	1.55	8%
130	Ross Stripling	SFG				45.2	6.11	1.42	15%
131	Hogan Harris	OAK				43	6.07	1.40	9%
132	Brandon Bielak	HOU				59.1	3.79	1.47	9%
133	Trevor Williams	WSN				93.2	4.42	1.41	11%
134	Tommy Henry	ARI				74.1	3.75	1.32	7%
135	Osvaldo Bido	PIT				24.1	4.44	1.44	11%
136	Martín Pérez	TEX				91.2	4.81	1.48	7%
137	Adrian Houser	MIL				51.1	3.68	1.54	8%
138	Ken Waldichuk	OAK				75.2	6.66	1.84	8%
139	Jake Irvin	WSN				58.2	4.60	1.45	5%
140	Luke Weaver	CIN				73.1	7.00	1.62	10%
141	Jordan Lyles	KCR				96.2	6.42	1.29	9%
142	Alec Marsh	KCR				9	7.00	1.78	7%
143	Touki Toussaint	CHW				24	3.38	1.38	4%
144	Kyle Freeland	COL				103	4.72	1.45	7%
145	Austin Gomber	COL				96	6.19	1.48	8%
146	Johnny Cueto	MIA				1	36.00	4.00	-14%
147	Ryan Yarbrough	KCR				32.1	5.29	1.27	8%
148	Zach Davies	ARI				53.2	6.37	1.53	9%
149	Luis Medina	OAK				59.2	6.34	1.61	10%
150	Connor Seabold	COL				70.1	6.65	1.51	10%

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JimMember since 2016

1 year ago

Hey, Austin Gomber is on a roll.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Jim

LOL, I know, but I still don’t trust him!!

LightenUpFGMember since 2018

He is also one spot away from being the ace of the staff according to this list. A few more good starts and that is just going to force Gomber into the spotlight!