Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Ryan: Is there a better top 5 in baseball then Tatis Jr., Soto, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth?

Paul Sporer: Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Abreu, Tucker is certainly up there, but not many stand up to SD’s quintet once Tatis is back.

Concerned Citizen: I’m at my wits end about our boy H. Bader! Still holding out hope for a bounce back in the Bronx?

Paul Sporer: I’m still a fan! He is still pretty affordable in the late-100s (183 winter ADP) and that draft price covers some of his volume risk (has never reached 430 PA). If we don’t the returns this year, I’ll definitely start moving away from him

Ravine Watchers: Are you over or under the steamer projection of 38 bombs for Schwarber

Paul Sporer: Little over, think he reaches 40 again! I love Schwarber and the 10 chip-in SBs this year were awesome (though don’t expect a repeat there)

Insert Witty Name Here: Read somewhere that Steamer has been the most accurate projection system. Is there any particular projection system you have trust most for fantasy?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big fan of The BAT! I regularly look at the three we end posting on the site by Spring Training: Steamer, The BAT, and ATC. I’m not locked into any one system, though

Prospecting: I’ve got Bellinger in a 12 team 5×5 roto dynasty. Having trouble deciding on if I should keep him or deal him.

Paul Sporer: Depends on how many keepers and if there is a price associated, but generally speaking I’m not likely to keep him in a 12-teamer right now

Concerned Citizen: Thinking of selling high on A. Nola in dynasty after a pretty good season in Philly. Is this the right time or do you think he’s got a bright future ahead?

Paul Sporer: Skills are rock solid so there’s no reason not to expect continued to success, but I have no idea trying to sell high on a 30-yr old arm. I don’t have major falloff concerns so it’s not a must that you trade him, but if you find a deal that suits your team, I have no issue making a move

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul, is reasonable for Tiger’s fans to be upset so far? No one is expecting massive signings and a great 2023, but they have done just about nothing to improve a terrible 2022 roster, and Harris is talking about the value “in giving young players ABs”. No one wants to hear that anymore. Give him the whole offseason to see, but how can you justify not improving the immediate product from last year when that bar was so low? Just cheapness from ownership? How can you not bring in 2-3 major league bats?

Paul Sporer: We haven’t even hit Christmas yet. I know the Winter Mtgs were busy and a lot of teams made moves, but it was a lot of the big guys the Tigers aren’t getting anyway so I’m not worried. This yr was super frustrating, but I’m giving Harris time. I’m not holding him responsible for the sins of Avila, thus I’m not particularly concerned.

I think we will see another few signings in the Boyd range of talent and perhaps a trade or two, depending what teams are offering. I think if Tigers fans are expecting insta-contention out of Harris, there will be disappointment. It’s not easy, but we still need some patience. Even if this year hadn’t been SO bad, no one was expecting playoffs so I don’t think this dud of a year set them THAT far off course. Let’s see what Harris can do before going too hard on him

Insert Witty Name Here: Been a while since I asked a The Show question. I usually just play online H2H but found myself playing RTTS a lot this year.   My hitting difficulty ended up at the highest level, legend+.  My question is: are you at the same level and what is your hitting strategy?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t done any RTTS this year, but my hitting this morning in Event games was definitely not Legend+ lol!! I started anchoring inside thanks to a tip from my Twitch chat after a few bad gms in a row and it got me going a bit, leading to 4 straight wins to cap the stream! I gotta get that Verlander card before tomorrow and I’m only 6 Ws away!

Teflonzo: 10 team dynasty league, have Megill under my control (but can drop and replace or redraft) but I share your and Justin’s concerns about health/innings.  Should I hold onto him on the good price and just hope or think it’s safe to look to re-add later on down the road?

Paul Sporer: Totally fine moving on and re-acquiring down the line, particularly bc of your league size. He’s the 7th man right now and you needn’t bend over backwards to hold him in a 10’er

Lahoo Saher: Who’s gonna sign Rodon and why will it be the Orioles?

Paul Sporer: Heyyy that was my big call when I was looking over the class back in late-Sept. I think they should continue to follow the Seattle trajectory! After SEA had a solid ’21, they signed Ray and made the playoffs. Rodon isn’t a reigning Cy, but he’s a badass lefty and I think he’d be a great fit for them. I don’t think their flirting with success this year was a fluke and could absolutely see them in the playoffs next year

Sad Pitt: How does Manfred/MLB justify the Mets paying more in luxury taxes than the A’s are paying in payroll? Is there any precedence for MLB to force an indifferent team to sell?

Paul Sporer: I don’t believe that has ever happened, but it is sad how the A’s and some other teams are run. The whole poor thing is a complete act. No team is actually poor and it’s pathetic when they act like they can’t scratch two nickels together. If you don’t want to try & win, sell the fricken team. But of course teams are cash machines so they won’t, they’ll just keep making money hand over fist.

Lahoo Saher: Serious question – what is the appeal of watching other people play video games?

Paul Sporer: Same appeal as watching other ppl play sports or act or do stand up…entertainment

T.J.: What in the world are the Cubs (not) doing? They lost (arguably) their best hitter and have done almost nothing of substance to improve. They have money coming out of their ears.

Paul Sporer: Speaking of losers crying poor, the Cubs were pulling that ish last year. It was presumed that they would open the purse strings a bit this year, but it hasn’t happened. Still plenty of talent on the board, though! We’ve had tons of moves and it’s been an awesome active offseason so far, but the pool isn’t completely try and there are still players that move the needle for teams. Curious if the Cubs will make a splash, though

Insert Witty Name Here: Follow up re: hitting strategy – are you a power swing guy every time or do you switch it up? My RTTS guy is more contact oriented, but I’ve been power swinging until I get to two strikes then switch to the normal swing just to try and get the ball in play. Secondly, do you hunt for a pitch in a particular area or go full Manny “see ball hit ball”?

Paul Sporer: I raaaaaaarely power swing in online games. Like once a session kinda rare. If I just have a big read on the pitch pattern and think I can smash it. Offline, I’ll mix in more power swings v. the computer, but still more often than not hitting X. I try to take a pitch or two to each at-bat (though I have plenty of first pitch swings… most of which go poorly, lol). If I’m playing a 9-inning where I’m really learning the opponent’s patterns, I will definitely start sitting in certain zones looking for a pitch there and ONLY there. Otherwise there is plenty of see ball, hit ball

Prospecting: Been burned by a couple prospects Kelenic, Adell, Brujan not doing much in a dynasty league (12 team 5×5 Roto), when do you cut bait by trading a guy even if his value may be off it’s peak vs holding out. With it just a 12 teamer the waiver pool isn’t that shallow so it costs a lot to have an underperforming prospect in the lineup.

Paul Sporer: It can be a tough balance to express patience w/prospects v. wanting to move onto the next guy who could be something. For the 3 you named — all of whom I also liked — I’ve seen enough to lower their ceilings. Adell and Kelenic jus t miss too much and there is little precedent to really flip those kind of K rates and while no one was confusing Brujan for a power hitter, he just doesn’t strike the ball with ANY force, making it really difficult to see how he gets on base enough to flex the speed. Of the 3, I’m still most in on Brujan, but only as a late lottery ticket in a deeper format

Lahoo Saher: Watching people play video games seems more akin to watching other people unbox goods rather than watching them play sports.

Paul Sporer: How so?

Paul Sporer: (Unboxing videos also quite popular btw)

Diaz and Clase: Over the last couple weeks, Diaz and Clase have NFBC ADPs around 15. (Really!) What is happening??

Paul Sporer: The Gladiator leagues! 23-rounds and THAT’S IT! No reserves, no adds… just the 23 you draft even if someone is out for the year. Thus you can’t add saves in season which has led to the premiere closers going VERY high. I took Clase at pick 15 in my 2nd Gladiator just last night (we’re only 2 rds in) after getting Devin Williams and Raisel Iglesias in the 2nd and 4th respectively picking from the #2 spot in my 1st one.

Lahoo Saher: So are you still calling Rodon to the O’s?  Has the way the market has unraveled made that more or less likely?

Paul Sporer: That’s still my lean, yes (also a good dose of wishcasting there as I simply WANT them to do it)

Lahoo Saher: Thoughts on how the Correa signing affects Marco Luciano’s value as a fantasy prospect?

Paul Sporer: He was never going to hold SS anyway so this just expedites a move to 2B or 3B IMO

Richard: 10 team H2H AL Only categories.  Would you keep Nate Lowe at $11 or Rizzo at $8?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’ll trade the $3 for 6 yrs of youth, gimme Lowe!

Vic: Judge, Tucker, or Vlad

Paul Sporer: Tucker for me

Keeper Q: Would you rather keep Adolis Garcia or Daulton Varsho for next season? Price would be the same. 5×5 cats H2H league.

Paul Sporer: Varsho for sure with

Vic: 10 times your 1st pick comes down to these 3 choices in a 15 Team 5 x 5. How many times do you pick each player?

Paul Sporer: Oh wait I posted the Judge-Tucker-Vlad thing out of order. Out of 10, I’d go Tucker 7, Judge 2, Vlad 1

SH: Just some food for thought here. I think Correa is overrated, mostly because of his postseason performance. Why is he held in higher regard than Swanson? Swanson is more durable, just as clutch, just as good defensively and just as good at the plate. Am I missing something? Why pay Correa 150 million more?

Paul Sporer: The only edge Dansby has is health. I just don’t get the overrated stuff with Correa. You’re not the only one saying it, either, but the case is flimsy at best. He’s a 130 career wRC+, tops at SS (min. 1500 PA). He’s 4th in WAR at 31.3, just behind Trea at 31.6 and not that far behind Xander at 34, especially given that Xander has a ~1000 PA edge. Among all players, Correa is 16th in WAR over his career. He simply isn’t overrated by any real measure. Dansby, btw, has essentially half the WAR (16.2) in 500 fewer PA and he’s older. Even at a higher price point, you take Correa 100 out of 100 times. Also, who says it’s gonna be $150 mil cheaper? We don’t know what Dansby is getting unless he just signed and I missed it.

TL;DR – Correa is elite, stop calling him overrated.

Diamondbags: Please pick one to drop from a deep dynasty league roster: Alzolay, Ashby, Bradish, or Houck?

Paul Sporer: Alzolay. Dig the arm when healthy, but that health has eluded him too much recently. And he’s isn’t markedly better than any of the others anyway so the health decides it for me

Lahoo Saher: Not debating the popularity of unboxing and video game streams – just very confused by it.  Speaking specifically of high-level sports, we watch in part because of things like city/alumni pride and because we mortals can’t fathom doing the things we see others doing, among other reasons.  Watching someone play a $50 video game or unbox a $40 curling iron seems to me to be similar in that it’s an entirely meta participation in a very ordinary and accessible activity.

Paul Sporer: With due respect, this just sounds like someone who hasn’t tried to understand what you’re critiquing. It’s not for everyone, sure, but millions of ppl do enjoy it, so there’s gotta be SOMETHING there that’s resonating, right? You certainly don’t HAVE to like it, but it feels like a pretty cynical and boomer-esque view of the medium

Stepson of Sam Horn: What do you make of Hunter Brown in 2023?

Paul Sporer: Huge fan! Probably my favorite 6th starter as of now. Maybe Houston could free up a spot for him via a Danny Jansen trade or maybe Brown is the return and then he can start in Toronto over Kikuchi. Gobs of talent for Brown and I’m inclined to still draft him in 15s even as a 6th SP as no team makes it through the season with just 5 SPs these days and he can put up good enough ratios & K totals to still be useful outside an SP role

Jung Bong Jovi: So I’d guess that Swansby Danson is headed elsewhere.  Can Washington work his magic on Grissom or does he need time in Gwinnett?

Paul Sporer: Can definitely work with Grissom. Just 22 yrs old and made the jump from AA. I could see a bit of sophomore slump type season this year and then a burst in ’24 as he still feels pretty raw. And Wash can definitely get his defense in order, though I’m not sure he can get him to an everyday SS level for a contending team

Pat Listachio: Can you plz rank Chisholm lindor gunnar for keeper? Standard cats

Paul Sporer: Lindor is tops and then it’s really a coin flip on Jazz and Gunnar. Slight lean to Jazz for me

Broken Bat: What jay catcher goes? Fir whY type of player? Pitcher, infield, outfield, left or right , handed?

Paul Sporer: It’s gotta be Jansen, IMO. As for the return, impossible to say, but a pitcher makes sense to me as I don’t really believe in Kikuchi

Paul Sporer: It could be Moreno, I shouldn’t act like it’s Jansen or bust, but I highly doubt they trade Kirk

Duchess: Interesting to see Jeff Z had Ke’Bryan Hayes up in the 80’s on his hitter ranks. The industry generally seems way down on him and it is hard to see him as much more than a .260/.320 guy with limited counting stat production. How do you think he stacks up against, say, Lux and Bohm in a dynasty league setting (7×7 roto with OBP and Total Bases)

Paul Sporer: I’m still in on Hayes as I think he can achieve beyond what we’ve seen thus far (97 wRC+). The trio named aren’t that far off. With OBP, I lean slightly toward Lux with Hayes and Bohm close behind. In standard formats, I’d go Hayes-Lux-Bohm

RAGBRAI: Brewers? Anything for them on the FA market or prices still to high?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine minor moves FA moves, but they are always capable of a big trade outta nowhere such as stealing William Contreras, lol.

Buff: NL only keeper, Dylan Carlson or Vaughn Grissom. Is it close?

Paul Sporer: The speed and age edge push me toward Grissom. It is close and I still can’t quite DC, but he doesn’t offer enough fantasy goodness to eclipse Grissom’s potential SB upside

Duchess: Dynasty $260 roster cap, 7×7 roto. Lane Thomas a decent $4 keeper as a counting stat contributor who will play every day and bat leadoff (for an admittedly bad lineup)

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that. I do worry about tabbing for leadoff again, though. He was a sleeper of mine coming into this year after his flurry w/WAS to end ’21 and then they buried him until late in the season. Hopefully they don’t pull that again, but I still like him and $4 is perfectly fair!

Scotty: Hola Sr. Sporer, 12 team H2H OBP/QS league with 18 keepers. I’m stuck between keeping 1 of Ketel Marte, Josh Bell, or Jon Gray. Team is mostly well balanced so no dire needs. Do you have any thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Really tight trio there so there isn’t a wrong answer, IMO. I lean toward Bell. I like his new landing spot in Cleveland, especially for the bulk of his PA when he’s batting lefty in that park. I don’t think Marte is a .240 hitter, but he clearly has no interest in leveraging his speed (plus, it’s now dwindling) so he’s a pretty bland fantasy contributor even if the AVG returns. I wish we could sprinkle some health dust on Gray and turn him loose for 30 starts. He is 2nd to Bell for me.

Pretendo: FWIW, I also did not understand the twitch/game streams thing until I started watching Summoning Salt speed run videos on youtube.  It was incredible to see the speed runs of some of the classic games I loved as a kid.  And then that evolved into watching live gaming, where I could admire & appreciate the incredible skill level in real time.  Your mileage may vary, but I’m a convert who even watches live chess now!

Lahoo Saher: My initial question re: game streaming was “what is the appeal?”  I absolutely acknowledge the popularity and was asking someone who is an active participant what that something is that resonates with them.  How else does one try to understand?

Paul Sporer: I hear you, I might be being a bit defensive, but it’s bc you’re using some of the framing that those who outright dismiss it do, so I might be misreading your intent. I totally get why it seems odd on its face, so it’s probably more of a try it before you knock it kinda thing and see if you enjoy it. Plus, streaming has really expanded beyond video games. I do fantasy drafts, I do a boxscore recap show, there are ppl doing art, music, and many other things. There really is something for everyone these days! Come through sometime and see if you like it

Ezra: I know this is a fantasy chat, but the Cubs’ offseason slumber so far has to push the next competitive team back a year, doesn’t it?

Paul Sporer: (All baseball Qs welcome, don’t worry!)

Paul Sporer: As for your Q, I wouldn’t be definitive on anything just yet. As I was mentioning earlier re; the Cubs, there is still enough talent to move the needle so I wouldn’t close the book on ’em until that talent dries up

Duchess: Follow up to the Hayes question – you shipping a $14 Bassitt for a $3 Hayes? Not super enthusiastic about Bassitt landing in Toronto.

Paul Sporer: I am, yes. Not anti-Bassitt, but just love that price on Hayes

Kate: I hate to say this, but is Oneil Cruz a sell in dynasty right now if you’re a contender?  He’s super fun and the upside is HUGE, but there still seems to be significant hit tool risk there.  Would it be worth exploring deals for more established players?

Paul Sporer: 10000%. His market value remains, but if he doesn’t take a step forward this year, the bottom will drop out. I would absolutely sell high on Cruz. I like him and I’m rooting for him, but he has substantial bust potential

Jung Bong Jovi: Thanks Paul!  A most hap-hap-happiest of holidays to you!

Paul Sporer: Same to you and everyone in chat!

jj: It seems like this has been a very busy Nov/Dec for FA. Maybe the past few seasons have just been really slow (I know last year was strange) but it seems like almost all the top 25 FA could be signed by Christmas.  No real question, but I like it.

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely the latter. Remember 19 was the disaster slow season when studs were signing in late-January. The 20 offseason wasn’t as slow, but still pretty blah and then 21 had the lockout. This is the first return to a “normal” offseason in quite some time and I love it. I’d love to see the trade market really heat up now!

Kate: You all sounded kind of down on Toronto as a landing spot for Bassitt.  While I don’t agree that this probably moves him down a bit, I kind of feel like we end up overrating these park moves a lot of the time (at least the ones that aren’t to the extreme parks like Coors, GAB and Oakland and the other major pitchers parks).  This feels like a slight downgrade than something major, no?

Paul Sporer: I can’t recall precisely what we said, but I think Justin was trumpeting the move as more of a negative than myself as Toronto plays a lot more neutral since the humidor. I’m not too worried about the move, more just worried about a 34 yr old finesse arm than anything else… and worried overstates. I’m just not super into him. Totallllyyyyy agree that park moves outside the outlier parks are wildly overrated

Insert Witty Name Here: While I agree with Lahoo that people watching other people play video games or unboxing stuff is dumb, I also realize I’m in a chat talking about what essential boils down to just number counting.  Let people be people, control your own self.

Paul Sporer: In fairness, they didn’t say it was dumb

Paul Sporer: Let’s not pile on Lahoo, I don’t mind being asked about its appeal. It 100% will not be for everyone, but a lot of people enjoy it and I totally see why. Heck, there are elements of my streams that are similar to these chats in that we’re always talkin ball and I have no problem answering fantasy Qs. For my streams specifically, if you like baseball, there’s a good chance you’d enjoy yourself. Even if you don’t play MLB The Show or Out of the Park Baseball — my 2 most played games. It’s a place for baseball fans to hang out with other diehards and enjoy this wonderful sport!

Duchess: Am I crazy or would Drury be an excellent fit for the Brewers

Paul Sporer: I can totally see that! And while it’s not Cincy, I would love him to get back into a plus hitters park

Insert Witty Name Here: Better hitter in ‘23, Bohm or Stott? I think Bohm is going to be the surprise of next year. Elite (?) contact, just getting his man strength now. Always good to have contact ability at a young age, right?

Paul Sporer: I actually like both to jump next year. Stott also makes good contact (7% swinging strike rate) and has the speed element, too! Neither is particularly expensive so they don’t have to break out to be worth it. Flip a coin on your favorite as they aren’t far apart!

Teflonzo: Any one who doesn’t understand the appeal of watching people play video games obviously hasn’t watched Paul force himself to put the controller down because somehow, as an adult male that is gainfully employed and 50% responsible for two dogs, he does not possess the will power to take the first pitch if the controller is in his hands.

Paul Sporer: This is very true. The best way for me to draw a walk is to literally just leave the room! I have run to get a drink at times and come back to a nice 3-0 count that I probably would’ve turned into a first pitch pop up, lol

Kyle: Just listened to your 2021 Nick Pollack and friends podcast – was funny hearing about your poker and dealer days. Do you have any good stories from then?

Paul Sporer: Had a great time talking with Nick on that pod! Most of the best stories probably aren’t fit for this chat… but my Twitch stream on the other hand would be a great avenue to share such stories!

Robert: How does Haniger fare in SF?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think the move will hurt him. When healthy, he is a quality power bat. A late-100s pick accounts for the health risk enough for me to still draft him

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow (perhaps later tonight, too, but that isn’t guaranteed so I don’t want to promise it) and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!