Paul Sporer’s Chat – May 25th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, pardon me for being late!

Scott TINSTAAPP: Paul my man. Have you given up on Daniel Lynch for this year? I was really encouraged start of the season but the walks have returned and I’m getting worried that he’s a cut even in 15 teamers here soon.

Paul Sporer: He’s one of those guys on the cusp. You pick them up hoping they’re breaking out and can be reliable, but you know that there is still a chance, a pretty good chance that it’s not and they will be a cut eventually. He will almost certainly be pickup-worthy again in the near future and could go through that cycle 3-4 times this year if it isn’t his leap year

Gabbagool: Patience on Baez is wearing thin…what’s going on here?

Paul Sporer: Pitchers aren’t giving him fastballs and it’s hurting. His fastball rate is down 10 pts with 6 pts of that going into sliders which are eating him alive (.318 OPS in 44 PA… sliders have ended almost as many of his PA as fastballs at 45 – he has a .791 OPS against heat)

David: Any thoughts on how soon Vinnie Pasquantino is called up and his ROS numbers when up?

Paul Sporer: Call up predictions are impossible because timelines are immediately blown up by injuries, but he’s raking so he has to be high on the list of potential call-ups for KC. He’s not on the 40 and they’re full, so it will require a roster move to get him up.

David W: Has Hunter Greene figured things out or just a good couple of outings?

Paul Sporer: I doubt it. I kinda see him that Lynch area of guys who will cycle around a bit but merit the continued chances because of the high upside. The command is still an issue, but the stuff is so good that sometimes it overpowers and he still succeeds.

Roy Donk: How would you rank these ROS: Grandal, Melendez, Jansen

Paul Sporer: Just like that but little separation between ’em

Kyle: You mentioned in a prior chat that Justin was going to do chats this year – is this no longer true?

Paul Sporer: It is still true. We need to iron out the schedule on that but should have info soon!

John: Pick 1 SP ROS: R. Contreras, A.Wood, J.Gray

Paul Sporer: Alex Wood

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Paul! I’ve been mashing that f5 button for an hour! Dylan Cease is the latest dude to break my heart this month. My team is just wallowing, in spite of serious star power everywhere. I just cut Aroldis Chapman for crying out loud!

Paul Sporer: I was only 30 mins late!! So brutal that Cease basically gave back al the goodness with the two duds in his last three. At least he’s still getting Ks

Roy Donk: Strider and Houck: who do you think is more likely to get a shot in the rotation? If both were guaranteed a rotation spot, who would you rather own?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think I favor one over the other to get in their rotation as I imagine both will kind of be in and out. I do prefer Strider over Houck

MF Luder: I got offered Wander Franco for Julio Urias…thoughts?

Paul Sporer: That’s fine if needs align

Quill: saw you arent sitting springs vs NYY. thats a scary proposition

Paul Sporer: I agree. I thought Peterson at SF/v. PHI was scarier, but that isn’t looking great so far w/his gem at SF

Kyle: Thoughts on Pivetta?

Kyle: Thoughts on Semien?

Paul Sporer: Kyle…

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Dats just the Javy Baez experience bro

Paul Sporer: He can be quite volatile, but this is a pretty low low for him

John: Would you play either Morton or Wright in COL next week? Both have 2x starts against ARI (good) and at COL (bad)

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d probably start both because of the 2-step. Scary, but I’d do it

Char’s #1 Fan: Slow start out of the gates for Laureano, but plate discipline metrics look really good.  Safe to say there is some better luck coming?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he is definitely contributing to his low BABIP by not hitting the ball terribly well, but like you said the plate skills are great and he has also attempted 4 SBs (2-for-4)

Char’s #1 Fan: Arozarena slowly turning it around, but still some mildly worrying metrics (lots of grounders and popups and o-swing is way up).  I still feel like he is just a streaky guy who ends up with a nice end of season line even if it’s a rollercoaster ride to get there.  Agree?

Paul Sporer: He definitely seems to fit that profile. His speed gives him a high floor for fantasy value, too

Kyle Lewis: What do you expect out of him this season? Had a good outing in his season debut.

Paul Sporer: He is a plus bat, it all comes down to health

Colton: Do you think Michael Chavis has any relevant fantasy value? A bit of an inflated BABIP and seemingly no ability to take a walk, but his power potential is interesting at 2B

Paul Sporer: He is fringe in 12-teamers but I like him as at least a reserve in 15-teamers or depeer. If he keeps the Ks in check, I think he can be solid

Big Joey: Does Cronenworth turn it around?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so. He is putting the ball in the air too much which plays a role in his low BABIP, but I still see it regressing back toward his .287 career mark (.256 this yr)

Wiffles > Pancakes: Is Tyler Mahle going to be good or should I drop him for someone like Liberatore / Silseth?

Paul Sporer: He’s half a pitcher. You can’t use him at home. I’m fine moving on

Jason: Am I going cuckoo looking at stat cast pages? Should I drop Castellanos for Kepler? 10 tm H2H standard cats.

Paul Sporer: OK I love Kepler, but I’m not cutting Casty for him, even in a 10-teamer. Casty hasn’t really ramped up but still has 5 HR and a .255 AVG. Wait until he has the inevitable heater. Roster both, but still holding Castellanos in 10s

Dave: What’s going on with Soto?  To the eye it seems he’s been too passive rather than attacking hittable pitches

Paul Sporer: I haven’t been watching enough of their games to know, but I’d wonder how many hittable pitches he’s seeing in a game… 2? He might need to shift a bit to address the fact that he won’t get pitches to hit as teams just don’t want to let Soto beat them.

Batty: Speaking of Springs…you got him or Eflin ROS?

Paul Sporer: They’re pretty close. Eflin is probably a better full season bet because of volume, but in the short term (which is generally how I view pitcher pickups in-season bc things are so volatile), I prefer Springs

Constantine: Would you trade Realmuto for JRod in a points league? I already have Adley at catcher.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, no issues there

Zombie Sabean: Thoughts on Kyle?

Paul Sporer: He is thoughtful

quadrangular: Biggest disappointment/underachiever thus far: CWS, Det, Sea, Atl?

Paul Sporer: Detroit being horrible definitely sucks, but they were still a longshot to really do anything. White Sox have the injury excuse. Seattle is disappointing, but it’s not terribly surprising. So that leaves Atlanta. They are the reigning champs and it seems like they should be better, but their offense seems all or nothing and they walk too many guys on the mound

Guest: Hicks.  A failed starting experiment?  Walks too many.  Yet doesn’t give up HR’s-has 20 career saves.  Reboot to minors?

Paul Sporer: I’d say just move back to the bullpen

ChoneFigginz: What kind of impact can Nate Pearson have once he is fully back? Sixth starter? Bulk? Set-up?

Paul Sporer: Just seems to fit premium RP

Bob: Looks like Merrifield is finally coming around, what is ailing Matt Olson?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see anything beyond a traditional slump. Still getting to enough power w/3 HR this month. Not worried.

Char’s #1 Fan: Do you think Ynoa gets another shot in the rotation this year?  He’s kind of struggled even after going down to AAA.  Everything he did last year looked pretty legit, even under the hood numbers.  Was this just a mirage?

Paul Sporer: Feels a bit like Lamet 2020. Great slider, little else. It was a legit run per the metrics, too, though that only justifies the run in question and doesn’t always carry forward. I’m not 100% out or anything, but my expectations aren’t high

Kaline’s Ghost: Is Kepler a starter in a 10 team mixed (start 3 OF) league?  Have Robert and J-Rod locked in to 2 spots, but the third has been a wasteland (thanks O’Neil!)

Paul Sporer: He has been thus far as a top 30 OF so I’m happy to run him out there. Great core skills, solid pop, some speed, and a locked in role

Bats in the OF: Who would you rather have in a points league ROS: Ward or JRod?

Paul Sporer: While the SBs don’t have their same scarcity in a pts lg, they still add to the points so it’s pretty close. I believe Taylor Ward as a plus bat, but not exactly +++ the way we’ve seen this year. I’ll take JRod by a hair over Ward

Paul: Paul Blackburn is dominating so far. The underlyings don’t alarm me enough that this isn’t earned. However, I’ve picked him at the lowest price, and am wondering if now

Paul: ‘s the best time to sell high and upgrade?

Paul Sporer: If you can actually sell high, I’m certainly open to it. I like Blackburn and think he has made some tangible changes to fuel his success, but sometimes these guys don’t bring back a return much beyond their original cost. Definitely shop him though

Kevin: OK to drop Brandon Lowe in a 12-teamer? That injury sounds like it could linger and my IL is already full…

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m OK with that

Brian: Kyle Lewis!  Everyone’s adding, but is the excitement warranted?   Bat X projects ROS .250 / 11 / 3

Paul Sporer: And 124 wRC+! And that’s only 73 gms for the counting categories so there is upside for quite a bit more if he can stay healthy. He is virtually an all formats pickup for me

Bob: Roansy looked pretty good last night. Think he gets to six innings for QS before long or will they coddle him and keep him to five innings?

Paul Sporer: Probably the latter especially if he has ups and downs

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Kyle Lewis “plus bat”

Paul Sporer: lol yeah

Paul Sporer: Are you suggesting otherwise?

Kingpin: What’s going on with our boy Albies?

Paul Sporer: Maaaan, he just isn’t striking the ball well and it’s hurting. He’s running a lot but just 3-for-8! I don’t know if it’s just a funk or something substantial. He was pretty good in April, well power-wise with all 6 of his HRs. I’m obviously holding through it, of course, but it’s a bummer

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: duran or Jimenez for saves ROS?

Paul Sporer: While Jimenez has the full job in OAK, I think Duran will eventually have a stranglehold on that job and they’re the much better team

Big Joey: It is so frustrating holding onto Gallo, I’m never drafting him again. Please tell me you think he will go bonkers for a month or two and carry me, or should I just drop?

Paul Sporer: This is the Joey Gallo Experience! I certainly won’t be surprised if he pops off for a 4-6 wk run, but he has been pretty bad as a Yankee (.166 AVG, .679 OPS). You can cut in 10s and 12s, but I’d still hold in 15s if only because you signed up for this lol

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: I love the new box score format, btw

Paul Sporer: Ty!!

Your boy Snell: Are the ER just bad luck, or do you see any red flags under the hood there?

Paul Sporer: 2 of yesterday’s were Stammen’s HR. I still don’t understand why we don’t split inherited runners. We’re already dealing with partial runs in ERA, so why not divvy up inherited runners?!

Adam: Chapman’s defense has still been stellar, and he seems to be hitting the ball hard, but are the days of a four cat stud over?

Paul Sporer: If you had told me he cut his K rate by 7 pts to 26%, I’d have said he’s hitting .230-.240, but it’s down to .192. The BABIP is minuscule but a part of that is the 50% FB rate. That will always foster a lower BABIP, though .224 is still egregiously low

Shaquille Oatmeal: Anybody else worried about Wander drawing about as many walks as me?

Paul Sporer: Not too surprised, walks aren’t a huge part of his game. Hits not falling is the major issue right now

Toonces: So if you are starting Springs vs NYY, what are your thoughts on him. They must be good. Have a chance to pick him up but been waiting until after the NYY game.

Paul Sporer: I mean yeah, I like him

Tallulah Trebuchet: Would you cut Josh Naylor or Brandon Dury to make room for Kyle Lewis in a 12-tm roto?

Paul Sporer: You can, but the three are pretty close so pick your 2 faves

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Are you the Austin fangrapher? I lose track

Paul Sporer: I am

Bruce in 2023: Albies or Bregman? Deep mixed roto

Paul Sporer: Still Albies

Guest: Should I drop William Contreras for Yasmani grandal? Points league

Paul Sporer: Yes, I still think he will be fine

stefano: Re: The Royals.  I think Mondesi is still on the 10 day, so should be easy for the royals to make a 40 man move

Paul Sporer: Ooh good call re: getting Pasquantino up

Bob: Josh Bell looks like a pleasant surprise. Do you think he keeps it up or would you look to sell high or at least higher than I would have thought?

Paul Sporer: He’s been cooking since last May with the 27th wOBA in baseball among 130 qualified hitters

Webster: Do you like Quantrill at Houston tonight?

Paul Sporer: No I would pass on that

KC: Is Franmil a drop in 12 teamers?  I could also drop Grichuk, A. Gimenez, Gorman, or Vaughn.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m fine w/any of those leaning Gimenez if the SBs help

Char’s #1 Fan: Junis going changeup heavy in the first inning!!!!!

Paul Sporer: Joey Bart was behind the dish in that season debut when the changeup debuted as a weapon. He hasn’t thrown it much since, even with Bart drawing another start since then. After his 2nd outing, Nick asked him about the changeup usage and Junis said he just follows his catcher so if Bart and Casali aren’t feeling it with the change, Junis is unlikely to shake to it

Rick: 1.Will Brujan start hitting before he gets sent down again.

Paul Sporer: It’s still only 66 PA so I’m definitely not out, but he is going to get sent down soon if something doesn’t change. Even some loud outs would help at this juncture.

Re: Chapman: Quick follow-up, you’re suggesting a rebound is likely in the cards there, yeah?

Paul Sporer: No no, not necessarily. It’ll get better but even w/the improved K%, his profile is still prone to low BABIPs so I’m not sure the AVG will rebound a ton (maybe .220 rest of way)

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning at 9:30am CT reviewing today’s boxscores and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!