Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 23rd, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all thanks for coming out!! I’m not sure what kinda volume we’ll get, but wanted to be here for anyone who has last second questions coming down the stretch!

GF: Hi Paul, no question Just want to thank you for everything you do! Loved reading your stuff and listening to the pod. Can’t wait for next season!

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much, I really appreciate it!

clydethedog: NL Keeper 5 x 5 roto, should I be trying to trade for Corbin Carroll in the offseason? I would most likely have to slightly overpay since none of my league mates like to trade

Paul Sporer: I think he’s one of the most consistent guys out there, so I’m definitely ok chasing him!

Gregg: Do you care about the new Tiger’s stadium name or does that stuff not bother you?

Paul Sporer: It’s lame as shit, but doesn’t really bother me, especially since it’s going from one bank to another

Gregg: Do you think deGrom has been unlucky this season or is there something at play that you think is contributing? LOB/BABIP/HR% seem fine. It’s easy to point to age but that isn’t an explanation in itself to me.

Paul Sporer: I wonder if it’s just some sequencing with his HRs. He’s a higher HR guy the last two yrs (though did shave it from 1.4 to 1.1) but maybe a few extra multi-run HRs pushed him to high-3.00s. BB% was also up a shred, too, so those two could be in concert to cost him those few extra runs whereas he outran the 1.4 HR9 last yr with a 2.97 ERA/3.32 SIERA

InsertWittyNameHere: I have an annual tradition of using my last dollar(s) for a pickup of a player(s) who didn’t play this year but are still roster-able, as a victory lap. Any suggestions on some good short term memory lane guys?

Paul Sporer: I’m terrible at remembering those guys off the dome — outta sight, outta mind — so usually don’t remember them until I start going team by team to make my next year lists. Do you have any off your dome? If not, maybe other chatters can suggest some

dirtypuer: So Max Clark is totally legit, right?

Paul Sporer: I definitely think so. Excellent plate skills and speed give him a foundation to work with and we’ll see where the power goes in his first full year, but even a high-teens HR output would be fine as I think he’ll contribute everywhere else and excel in SBs

Woody1937: When do you think we draft Josue de Paula next season? Top 75?

Paul Sporer: That feels high, but there will be some big-time excitement for him. I’d say more Top 150 range? Consider teammate Andy Pages went 146 in the Main Event this year and their production ranges feel similar, though maybe more SBs for JDP if they let him run

clydethedog: I have Josue De Paula as dirt dirt dirt cheap for the next 5 years, 5 x 5 NL Only roto. Is he untouchable?

Paul Sporer: You’d have to be bowled over for sure. Getting a rising star in the Dodgers lineup feels great!

Gregg: There was an article on Fangraphs this past week that talked about Cavalli overperforming the underlying stuff metrics (Stuff+ and Pitchingbot). I may have missed it, but there didn’t seem like a satisfying answer to why he’s average on those metrics but great in the ERA estimators. What’s your read on Cavalli and other players who show great results and ERA estimators but the models don’t like them?

Paul Sporer: I think part of it is just that those STF+ and P-bot themselves aren’t perfect and probably get a bit over-relied upon to find the best SPs. I’ve seen so many disconnects between strong K% guys and modest to even poor STF+ when researching this year. They’re valuable metrics to be sure, but like any metric they aren’t an end-all, be-all. As for why they miss on Cavalli specifically, I’m not sure, because he also throws hard in addition to everything else.

He will be someone worth diving into this offseason after a great year. Some ppl were hilariously taking victory laps on him 2-3 starts into the season only to see that go sideways big time. He closed April with a pair of 10-K gems and since then, he’s been a stone cold ace: 2.88 ERA/1.08 WHIP/24% K-BB in 150 IP!

canderson20: Would Kershaw fall under the memory lane guys or does it have to be someone who isn’t retired?

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh I misunderstood, I thought it was like injured guys who could be worth it next year. In the Kershaw vein, Verlander makes sense. He’s slated to pitch this weekend for a swan song, but obviously had no real fantasy relevance this year.

Hazmat Corntail: Prediction time: Who is going to be the better Tiger SP in ‘27, Melton or Ryan?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Melton guy, he’s my pick there, but I am excited about both! If Scott Harris finally figures out how to put together a bullpen, I really think the Tigers will be the ALC favorite

Gregg: How did you end up doing in your leagues this year? Any ones that are still up in the air?

Paul Sporer: Pretty terribly. A few weeks ago, I was literally sitting 4th in 4 leagues, thinking I had a really nice shot to cash multiples and we just melted in the 2H. Now 10th, 9th, 7th, and 4th in those leagues. 2 of my DCs (including one with my friend Gregg Martin) are in cash spots right now, so hopefully those hold, but my FAAB leagues went poorly.

The Main Event AVG started poorly and could never pull outta the rut (Colson, Turner, Machado big culprits there) as the savvy Kwan pickup (.343 in 274 AB) could only do so much. That of course impacts R/RBI, too. I had similar AVG struggles in my Online Championship with Colson again being a major roadblock to success there as well. I will be adjusting my focus for AVG next year as I just think it’s too hard to succeed in those formats when you’re lagging in the bottom 2-3 spots.

Kevin: My first three picks were Judge, Henderson, and Raleigh. Interested if anyone in the chat can top that draft luck.

Paul Sporer: Ouch that is tough! No doubt felt great coming outta the draft with a top 3 hitter and two up the middle studs… or would-be studs.

Erol: In a keep forever 3 Keeper league would you keep James Wood, Konnor Griffin, and Jackson Merrill over Judge, Skenes and J-Ram?

Paul Sporer: Wood and Griffin for sure. I’d likely labor on that 3rd spot quite a bit with all but J-Ram in consideration. And I say that as a J-Ram mega fan, but at age-34, I’m inclined to get off the train before it totally derails (assuming you don’t consider it derailed this year, but I do give him some leeway for hamate issue). Judge will be even older (35) and the injuries are really starting to pile up. It’s likely Skenes v. Merrill for me. I’m not out on Skenes, the only real concern is that his issues were injury-based, but we don’t have anything to suggest that except conjecture so he’d be my leader the clubhouse

Gregg: Thanks for all of your hard work and analysis this year. You make the fantasy baseball game more fun to play for many many people out there. Keep rocking!

Paul Sporer: I appreciate you, Gregg. Thanks for always reading, listening, and commenting!

Daiginjo: What does the future hold for Kyle Harrison? Are we seeing the lingering effect of injuries or did he totally forget how to pitch?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s just not 100% and I worry that the offseason alone won’t necessarily fix it. I was so ecstatic about his rise (largely due to drafting him in the Main Event) but I’m now once again skeptical of him because of injury

Brian: Hi Paul.  12 team roto keeper league with obp.  Pick two to keep:  Woo 6th, Crochet 6th, Jared Jones 22nd and Kade Anderson 22nd.  Not keeping any other pitchers.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d just go for the two 22nd rounders. Too much uncertainty around the 6th rounders despite their unquestioned talent. Woo had such a crazy season w/the extreme home/road splits. Did the home park help cover their defensive inefficiencies and allow him to still succeed at home? It’s hard to fully blame the defense bc he was still so good at home. As I work through it more, I’d likely go Woo over Kade if you’re not concerned about the huge splits. Crochet missing essentially a full year to health makes him too scary for me

Hazmat Corntail: Did Angel Genao do anything to impress you in his initial trial?

Paul Sporer: I’ll be in on him as a late-round Draft Champions guy this fall/winter. His unimpressive #s should keep him super cheap, but a .240 BABIP played a big role there so I think he can be a solid .260s type hitter with a bit o’ pop and speed. Nothing elite, but something everywhere

yuudrush: Trying to pull out a victory in my H2H championship: How would you rank the following streaming pitchers in a QS league? Sean Burke vs Rockies, Robert Gasser vs Cardinals, and Brandon Young @ Yankees?

Paul Sporer: I like ’em in the order listed. White Sox still fighting so shouldn’t be any limits for Burke while the Brewers have no reason to push their SPs and I just prefer both of them over Young

morganconrad: Mainly Paul, thanks for all the great advice all year.  It helped me get over some awful drafts, and looks like I’ll end up 2nd and 3rd in my two H2H leagues.  Since there should also be a question, who do you trust for one last streamer start this week, in a points league where volume counts: Jax, Chandler, or Soroka?

Paul Sporer: Great job grinding through the tough drafts! I lean toward Soroka as my favorite there. Not sure TB pushes Jax for clinch reasons and Chandler is just such a wildcard w/his control that a few BB can run him out early

Paul Sporer: Thank y’all so much for a great season of chats! Again, I’ll be off for the next few weeks before we dial it back up for the offseason (late-Oct/early-Nov sometime). Good luck the rest of the way and I should be able to get SP boards up for Sat/Sun for y’all, too!