Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 11th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Thanks for coming out

Tigers, oh my!: How would you value the following Detroit players in a deep al-only keeper? (5×5 roto, Sv+holds) Reese Olson, Wenceel Perez, JH Malloy, Jason Foley, Ty Madden?

Paul Sporer: Didn’t even plan this, very first question is about my Tigers!!

Paul Sporer: Even w/the health, Olson is my #1. From there it’s probably Perez or JHM. I’m not sure Foley is a long-term closer option so he’s last on the list

Guest: It’s crunch time baby!  Pick best 3 from these SP matchups: Ragans @ NYY, Webb vs SDP, Ober vs CIN, Peralta @ ARI or C. Sanchez vs NYM.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I know NYY/SDP are tough, but I gotta run Ragans and Webb. I just have too much trust in them to sit ’em and it’d just kill me if they cooked on my bench. 3rd is Ober for me. He’s been wonderful outside of 2 starts v. KCR and 1 other dud (was it ATL? I can’t remember off the dome) and even avenged his KC ugliness w/a gem v. them last time out! Good group to pick from as Peralta and Sanchez are plenty competent, too, but they catch the sits here

Fired Up: I know this is a cross-venue comment, but I REALLY enjoyed the FSC w/ Nick today and the idea of looking at upcoming borderline matchups. Would LOVE something like this for the upcoming week ahead of Sunday night FAAB. I know the (excellent as well) 2-start pod is similar, but this time of year one-off starts might be more useful.

Paul Sporer: We had a blast doing that and will be running it back next week, too. I’ll see if we could add a FAAB component and highlight some names we like for that final week. I will also see if Justin plans to do a FAAB ep w/Jason on Sunday and if not, then he and I can incorporate some FAAB names during the 2-start Friday ep

JG: Good afternoon Paul,  Lets get Mize a win today

Paul Sporer: Great shot for the club to stay hot v. the Rocks

Doug: Spencer Horowitz..real or a mirage..

Paul Sporer: Pretty real to me. I’m a huge fan! Excellent plate skills and legit line-drive power that gets him enough HRs to be dangerous and could develop into more consistent HR pop, too. His late-season surge could send the price up a bit, but I think he’ll be plenty affordable as a really nice hitting 2B

Looking ahead: Trying to get ahead of next week starts. Favorite 1 or 2 of these? Bowdin (@TX), Zebby (@CLE), Povich (DET), Kutter (MIN), Detmers (CWS), Ginn or Spence (@CHC)?

Paul Sporer: Bowden Francis | Reid Detmers are the easy top 2 for me. I like them in just about any format.

Kutter | Povich | Zebby after that as usable options in most spots and solid W potential for all 3 (well, maybe not Kutter w/that offense and bullpen “support”)

Ginn | Spence are fine and I don’t mind facing CHC, but they still have lower W upside and definitely get outclassed within this group.

JT: Hi,

Paul Sporer: Hi!

Kremer: Chasing a QS would you roll out Bradford today?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to it, but there’s plenty of risk — super-talented arm in a super-difficult matchup

Short, Tempered: Brooks Lee or Jacob Wilson윌슨, ROS in an OBP league?

Fill in the blank: Jacob Wilson is ranked the ______ best shortstop in AL only roto next year?

Paul Sporer: Slight lean to Lee in OBP, but they are pretty close. Hard to say exactly where I’ll rank him but I think 10-13 area among AL SS feels right without a deep-dive

Okra: Would you rather Spencer Schwellbach or Lawrence Butler as a round 20 keeper?

Paul Sporer: When it’s close, hitter over pitcher in my tiebreaker. Love both these players so I indeed think Butler being a hitter gives him the edge

Festa is Besta: I’m trotting out Festa vs. CIN, but is there anything he can do that makes him a consideration for Fenway next week?

Paul Sporer: A solid outing where he doesn’t get hurt puts him on table in Fenway for me in part bc of how poorly Boston has been hitting at home lately. Since August 1st, they are 22nd in wOBA v. RHP at home. That is cutting the data pretty finely and they are 9th at home on the year but there will be spots where I think Festa is worth the risk. He has pretty even platoon splits, too, so even if Boston stacks lefties, it won’t be markedly worse for Festa

Ben RIce: Still feel like ben Rice is “a dude” (with next year in mind)??

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m still a fan! The only problem is he won’t be Catcher-eligible which does put extra burden on his bat to succeed, but his power/eye core is a great foundation to build upon

Guest: I can stand to gain a couple OBP points. in SB, no upward movement and i’m 10-ish steals up, but on like 5 other managers. keeper league. how long do I hold $6 Xavier Edwards with 2 straight games missed? SLG is also a category.

Paul Sporer: He’s just in to pinch hit right now! So maybe this is way back into the lineup. That said, your standings might be dictating a move away from him regardless of health

Chip: Any hesitation about throwing DeGrom on Friday? 12-team H2H playoffs.

Paul Sporer: Oh I’m definitely nervous but I’m still taking the shot in a lot of spots. The standings will matter most and if 3-5 IP of good ratios and strikeouts is useful, I’m in. If I’m chasing Ws, he moves down the board a little (though that’s also dependent on who else is available).

Rickey: I know it depends on price, but do you think Lawrence Butler is going to be a good investment for next year? How about JJ Bleday?

Paul Sporer: I think both will be fairly priced and worth buying. Bleday for sure. Butler has been SO good that he really could surge and get to a point where maybe I’m not diving headfirst into investing in him. Butler went at pick 154 in an early industry draft that conducted the first 11 rounds a few wks back.

I think he’s already moving up 40-50 picks just since then with another 8 HRs, 13 RBI, 3 SBs, and .388 AVG in his last 70 PA. Early-100s ADP doesn’t take me out, but if he’s anchoring there in the Fall, there’s definitely a chance he’s a Top 75 pick by Spring so he could be one of the premiere helium guys this Fall/Winter.

Diego: Is Rhett Lowder smoke and mirrors right now?  The results are way ahead of the underlying numbers.  Assuming he can make adjustments in the future, but for now?

Paul Sporer: The season will likely run out before he can work off the 8 BB from his first 2 starts, but they are uncharacteristic of who he is so it was nice to see 0 yesterday. He’s smoke & mirrors as anything close to a 0.59 ERA guy, but a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA and low-1.20s WHIP is who I see him as over these last couple weeks

Honkus Wagner: Xavier Edwards or Anthony Volpe next year? I’ll throw Maikel Garcia in as well

Paul Sporer: I’m still pretty keen on Volpe and the potential for a more complete package. A full season of Edwards could bring 50 SBs, but with probably something in the 5-9 HR range. Garcia brings a bit more punch than Edwards, similar SB potential, but a lottttttttt less AVG/OBP. In a vacuum, it’s Volpe-Edwards-Garcia for me

Colton: Were you able to do much digging on the park factors in Sacremento next year for the A’s? Or will that be more of an offseason adventure?

Paul Sporer: Yeah this came late last chat, but I was informed of Sacramento’s surprisingly pitcher-friendly park factors:

Paul Sporer: So Justin and I amended our “get all Oakland hitters and avoid all Oakland pitchers” edict. We still love guys like Rooker, Butler, Bleday, but we’re not running away from the pitchers on the A’s that we like now

Guest: is Wallner this year’s Suwinski?

Paul Sporer: In that I’m going to dive all-in on him and be horribly disappointed all year?

Paul Sporer: Wallner is a dude, IMO. Absolutely mashes the ball and helps Minnesota fans worry less about losing out on Brent Rooker’s emergence in Oakland (he was a Twin back in 2021). Striking out at a 37% clip does give him some major AVG risk if he doesn’t run a .389 BABIP again, but he’s got legit 30 HR pop

Bobby: Michael Busch goes to Coors for the weekend. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being best what’s his grade?

Paul Sporer: A hard 8! He already cooks on the road and now gets to go to the friendliest venue around!

Bad to Worse: Civale vs AZ or Morton vs LAD on Sunday? Sad face emoji.

Paul Sporer: Frickkk that is tough. At least both are on good teams and get support via the bullpen and lineup. I think Morton by a hair?

Paul Sporer: Oh no, poor David Bednar about to melt again?

Jason: Would you start degrom over Logan Webb, Gausman, or Lugo next week depending on how his start this week goes?

Paul Sporer: Maybe Gausman. Interestingly, he will be facing Gausman

Paul Sporer: They pulled Bednar at 3-1…. ouch. just such a tough season for him

James: hoping to be in finals next week and will use my final acquisition this week to get ahead next, Arighetti vs SD or Detmers vs CWS ?

Paul Sporer: Gotta go matchup and run Detmers there. He’s also pitching brilliantly since his return

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta run. Thanks so much for coming out. If you’re still chasing down a title or money spot, I’ll be back on the 18th and 25th to help as much as I can. Let’s close strong, y’all!!