Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – November 15th, 2023

Paul Sporer: And we’re back! The chats return! (Might still have one-off misses around the holidays, but no longer on planned hiatus)

Eds: Thoughts about a Sleeper & the Bust Gladiator league?

Paul Sporer: We gotta do that!!! I’ll mention it to Justin, he’s elite at arranging things like that

John: Can you explain the Matt Damon references I always see in these chats? Always feel like I’m missing out on a joke

Paul Sporer: I think it just started as a reference to Team America and has just kinda stuck around since —

jack: Keeper league where you keep two players and lose a draft pick one slot above where they were taken. Already keeping Carroll (7th round, so forfeiting 6th round pick) but have to choose between Altuve (14th) and Torkelson (21st) – Altuve obviously is better overall but Tork plus the 13th rounder might be better than Altuve plus the 20th?

Paul Sporer: It’s close enough to consider, but I do think I prefer Altuve and the 20th. I love Tork and his summer was VERY encouraging, but also considering 2B v. 1B is a big deal for me

Kate: How would you rank these names in order of likelihood to start 2024 with at least a share of the closer’s role?  And then also, how would you rank in terms of likelihood of ending 2024 with a share of saves?

Kate: Oops sorry, meant to include names for the closer question above: Gregory Santos, McArthur, Kerkering, Kyle Finnegan

Paul Sporer: I have an unsubstantiated feeling that the Nats might be active this offseason and add like 5-7 guys through FA and trades to make themselves quite a bit better which could push Finnegan into earlier innings, but if they don’t do that (which again, is admittedly more likely), then I think he’s tops here. Followed by Santos, McArthur, and Kerkering with Santos/McArthur very close and Kerk a good bit further behind.

Kyle: For the “member” tags on Fangraphs, it would be cool to see those tags get updated to say “member since 20XX”. could incentivize people to keep that subscription updated.

Paul Sporer: Ooh I love that idea, will pass it along!

John: Freddy Peralta or Cole Ragans for 2024 in 12tm H2h pts league? Caveat that Ragans is RP eligible.

Paul Sporer: I’ve got ’em close in general but then the RP elig. for Ragans in H2H tips the scales over to him, especially since we can’t necessarily give a big team context edge to Peralta as Milwaukee is a threat to downshift to improve their long-term outlook (not a full teardown, but more of a retool that drops them to something like a high-70s win total next yr while setting the table for 2025-27 to be back in contention)

Brooks: What differentiates head-to-head and traditional roto strategy? What do you do differently in a H2H league vs roto?

Paul Sporer: These questions came in the queue back-to-back which is perfect! For example, in that Ragans Q, his RP eligibility is highlighted bc starters-as-relievers is an asset in H2H when you’re trying to stack starts week-to-week. H2H is often points-based and a lot of scoring systems give more direct value to things like doubles and walks, two stats that don’t directly contribute to most roto lg standings (unless they’ve added those cats, of course). Bottom line is to always know your scoring rules whether in H2H or roto because player values will change based on what counts (obvious, but too often forgotten in fantasy).

Kate: What do you think the odds are that Sawyer Gipson-Long enters 2024 with an MLB rotation spot?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s got a decent shot, so something around 60-65%. He’s penciled in right now and there probably isn’t really anyone in-house who will run him out so it’d have to come via FA or trade. I expect the Tigers to definitely make some moves, but they like their young pitching so they probably won’t bring a ton of guaranteed SPs

Mike: Wonder what you think of CJ Abrams for next year?  Loved watching the guy play, and wonder if he was just getting acclimated after being rushed, or if this is the ceiling?  Those steals from July on, combined with some pop, despite the middling OBP.  Seems to have made legit gains based on swing data, but I def remain cautious.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he’s at peak as a 22-yr old. It’s hard not to think he’s just scratching the surface, especially because while the 2H run was excellent for fantasy, it’s not like he was just ripping the ball (.752 OPS from July on w/11 HR & 38 SB in 345 PA). I’ll deliver my standard favorite line – prospect growth isn’t linear (shouts to Ron Shandler, not sure if he said it first, but that’s where I got it many moons ago) – so at 23 he might not even build upon 2023 necessarily, but the speed-power combo at SS is too enticing to ignore so I understand the price surge, that said I truly can’t blame anyone for sitting on the sidelines this year.

I realize it’s a bit fence-sitty, but sometimes I’m just in between on a guy. The Abrams lovers are paying 3rd-4th rd prices for their guy and I get it, skeptics probably wouldn’t roll w/him in the 8th until they see more and they’re OK possibly missing on the full scale breakout season given the price tag.

Sonny: In a shallow 10t 5×5 H2H with OPS am I crazy for keeping CJ Abrams over Volpe?

Paul Sporer: Crazy? No. But I’d lean toward Volpe. Abrams is more speed-power as he could have 3x SBs v. his HRs while Volpe is a power-speed guy and likely stays at more of a 1:1 ratio or higher, leaning toward his HRs

Pat: Is there a way of telling when the winning overall teams in NFBC drafted?  I was curious to see if drafting early/late was more advantageous to those outcomes.

Paul Sporer: Yes, you can see their draft time in the standings (which are now in the History section)

Kate: Better bet for 2024 in an OBP roto: Rizzo or Josh Bell

Paul Sporer: I certainly hope that Rizzo is beyond the concussion issues come next season, but I’m nervous enough to pass on him for Bell because even at full health, they’re pretty close.

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: DATT. MAMON.

Domino: How do you feel about Ezequiel Duran next year? 12T viable?

Paul Sporer: Fringe in 12s and I’m not sure his PT is locked. If he’s a super-sub playing 4-5x a week, he’ll probably bounce around a 12-teamer a bit

Kate: Is Machado as easy of a bounceback candidate as I’m thinking?  Seems fairly obvious that he played through injury basically the whole year.

Paul Sporer: I tend to think so as I’m comfortable betting on his track record with full health. Nicklaus Gaut did throw some cold water on that this morning, but I’m still pretty in on a Machado buyback https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-3rd-annual-thirdies/

Pat: Isn’t there a decent chance we see another level from Civale next year given what we just saw from Eflin?  I feel like Civale is being priced consistent with who he’s been but with no upside baked in.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m in on that. I loved Civale in Cleveland and of course they’re excellent at pitching development so it’s not a HUUUGE change to go to Tampa Bay, but I do think his post-200 ADP has plenty of upside. His price is probably dampened by the 5.36 ERA w/TB, but his 24% K-BB stands out. At this point, Civale needs to stay healthy. He has the talent to be very good, but has yet to reach 125 IP in a season.

Brooks: Thanks! re: H2H, the ones I’ve played in are category based, and have the same categories as Roto: 5×5 + maybe OBP or more pitching ratios (K:BB, K:9). In my experience, things like stolen bases have less value in H2H cats – is that right?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I should’ve hit on H2H cat leagues and the specialty categories like SB/SV are definitely devalued a bit in that format v. standard roto

Kate: Are you worried at all that Oneil Cruz’s injury will impact his speed / stolen base attempts going forward?

Paul Sporer: I’m just nervous about him in general especially because he remains so expensive. He’s at an 82 ADP right now!! I don’t see myself buying this year

Scrapper: When did you do your last ranking if any of starting pitchers for 2024?  When will you be doing your next ranking?

Paul Sporer: Last run was August and first 2024s are coming soon (wanna be done before Thanksgiving, but shortly thereafter if I’m not quite done in time) — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-rest-of-season-starting-pit…

Paul Sporer: Y’all really showed out today! So glad to be back chatting. The recharge time in October was much needed, but I’m so amped on the offseason now and can’t wait to dive all the way in! I know this is literally my first chat back, but should we run again next week with it being the day before Thanksgiving? Let me know in the comments of this post if you think you’ll be around. I’m happy to run it if ppl will be around, but I could see it being light and might kick to 11/29. We’ll see, but either way — stay tuned for 2024 SP Rankings and more Breakout Breakdowns (3B up next). Thanks so much for coming out!!