Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 31st, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

Guest: Ward or Wisdom OBP ROS

Paul Sporer: No need to think that far ahead w/these guys. Most ROS questions put too much pressure on thinking you’ll definitely keep the guy that long. I’m still leaning Ward there despite the slow start

Jimmy Neutron Star: I scooped Jake McCarthy as a Mullins replacement. He finally live up to his draft ranking?

Paul Sporer: He certainly can. I was in on trying to get him on the wire this week after passing at his draft cost

Warren: Paredes or Gimenez ROS? 7×7 XBH + OPS

Paul Sporer: Paredes unless you’re desperate for the SBs

Not my usual name: Two weeks ago I traded Javier, Kelenic, and Christian Walker for Mike Trout in a shallow 11 team OBP/QS league. Replaced Walker with Tellez and streaming pitchers with Taj and Eury to replace Javier. Good deal or no?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I have no problem w/that. Consolidation is the name of the game in shallower leagues

Sean: Alvarez or your boy Stephenson ROS? Believe Alvarez is just hitting 2nd against lefties but the move up is encouraging

Paul Sporer: I’m still holding T Step where I’ve got him, but I’m OK w/Alvarez over him right now. Stephenson’s power hasn’t come through as I was thinking thus far and while it could still amp up, Alvarez’s is here and he’s looking great. I imagine he will slow down but not to a degree that takes out of fantasy consideration

Liam: Where do you stand on Ke’Bryan? All the peripherals look solid but the results are just not there

Paul Sporer: Speaking of the power not coming along, we’ve seen the same with Hayes. He’s even gotten the lift and upped the Barrel Rate some, but a 3% HR/FB is muting the results. I’m still in on him but he’s not a must hold in shallower formats

Phil: 12 team H2H – do I hold Bryce Miller for another turn? Available replacements are Lynn, Allen, Montgomery, Detmers

Paul Sporer: I’d say several turns. I’m not abandoning ship because of one dud. I do like Detmers, but I’d find a different cut for sure

Bubba: What do you think is going on with Andres Gimenez?  Cut bait and move on?

Grand Budapest Hotel Rwanda: Do we believe in a rebound for Andres Gimenez? Seems like all guardians hitters are stats not in line with xStats

Paul Sporer: BABIP is way down which means it shouldddd regress, but he also has a 20% HardHit rate so he’ll need to start striking the ball better to push his BABIP toward his .316 career mark. Guardians as a whole are a mess right now, there should be some team-wide regression eventually. I’m holding Gimenez in most spots

Not my usual name: In a shallow 11 team OBP league with 3 OF spots, I have Seiya, Riley Greene (RIP), Lamont Wade, and Yelich are options for the 3rd OF spot , who do you like most? Follow up, do any of the rest leapfrog Jung for the UTIL spot?

Paul Sporer: I was huge on Seiya Suzuki coming into the year and still love him especially now that he’s back. Yelich is close w/the 7 HR/11 SB so far. I’m holding Jung over them. are you cutting these others or bench guys? Greene to IL perhaps?

Mike: Any hope for Blake Snell going on one of his patented second half heaters? He still has 3 pitches with > 40% whiffs.

Paul Sporer: It’s always in the cards for the reason you mentioned, he has nasty stuff. When he dials in, he’s an all formats must-start, but the volatility is extreme. Hard guy to cut anywhere, though

Jim Leyland Palmer: Morel OK to drop in shallower formats (10tm)? Couldn’t sell him to anyone when he was hot, now…

Paul Sporer: Yeah, the Ks have caught up. Try to time up his next heater and scoop him back up, but I’m OK moving as the downturns can be severe. 2-21 w/9 Ks which is a small sample, but his plate skills have been brutal all yr including AAA so a cooldown was certain to happen at some pt and it looks like this could be the start of it

Vince: When can we expect Esteury Ruiz apologies to start flowing? The guy is a good player!

Paul Sporer: I’ve discussed him here & the pod and that I’m pretty much in the L zone. Still don’t cash any tickets until the end of the season, but it’d take some kind of collapse for him to be where I was worried he’d be as a hitter. He’s been impressive! Overall, this profile still don’t pan out enough for me to consistently take the chance, but I won’t duck from the Ruiz L that is almost certainly headed my way in October

Jobu: What to do with Andres Gimenez? I don’t want to sell low (I turned down an offer of Eflin for him) but he’s showing zero signs of turning it around

Paul Sporer: Sorry for another Gimenez one, but I’d have done that deal. Even as someone who thinks he can get back on track as the summer wears on, I’d take Eflin. I believe in him

David: Is there anything you see that is concerning about Clase? Obviously racking up loads of saves but everything else has been super iffy so far this season

Paul Sporer: Super underwhelming component stats w/the 17% K and 12% SwStr rates, but it’s not really actionable. Well, not actionable in relation to Clase directly. If you’re worried the bottom could fall out, you could try to spec the backup, but who is that? Karinchack walks the yard, Morgan & Stephan feel too HR prone for the 9th.

Jorge Mateo: How the mighty have fallen… it sounds like his leash got longer with Mullins out. Will he hit decently enough to play every day or has he burned out gloriously?

Paul Sporer: This is why we don’t cash tickets until the end of the season bc I had y’all at my window trying to cash Mateo ones, a guy I saw similarly to Ruiz. Mateo really couldn’t have had two more disparate months. The do even out to the guy he was last year, though, so I’m not super confident that he rebounds much. If he keeps playing, he should be able to rack up enough SBs to maintain a strong fantasy value, but you have to be mindful of how his disastrous AVG and paltry R/RBI (75 R/59 RBI per 162 gms since last yr) impact your team. Are the SBs worth it?

Ghost Fork: How do I trust Kodai Senga with all the walks but also the two recent gems against PHI and TB? Citi Field is pitcher-friendly, but it can’t just be a home/away thing, can it?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t think it’s just a home/road thing, either so I wouldn’t just auto-sit on the road or anything. I’m finding that he’s probably more or less an auto start at this point as timing him has no discernible pattern and I think there’ll be more ups than downs so I’ll ride the waves

Tigers Beat: Greene and Vierling both out. Who do I pick up in my Tigers-only OBP league: Maton, Short, Ibanez, McKinstry, Marisnick?

Paul Sporer: McKinstry for sure

Guest: Jonah Heim or Francisco Alvarez ROS in Roto OBP?

Paul Sporer: Still Heim for me

ManOrGausman: Flipped Matt Chapman + Josiah Gray for Kevin Gausman + Alex Kirilloff in an 5×5 OBP league — how’d I do?

Paul Sporer: Solid trade IMO

Brett: League size where you’re comfortable dropping Manoah?

Paul Sporer: Probably only 10s and lower right now. Still reserving in 12s and up just to see if anything turns

Tigers Beat: Pitching Division: What’s your feeling on the Reese Olson call-up? His minor league stuff numbers are solid, per Eno, even if results have been mixed and only a 40 here.

Paul Sporer: I’m excited about Olson! He has consistently missed bats coming up through the minors and could find some MLB success. I do think he could become a premium RP for them, but the closer’s role is locked by Lange right now so from a fantasy value standpoint, it’s better that he’s starting for now

Raley’s Comets: Even with the way the Rays deploy their hitters is Raley gonna have a “breakout” season all year

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s been excellent with 10 HR and 7 SB. He’s a strong side platoon which will hurt his R/RBI totals and can make him a tougher play in shallower leagues. He has been playing more lately, starting in 8 of 9, though they only faced 2 LH starters. He likely should be rostered in more than 19% of Yahoo! leagues

Orioles in the Outfield: O’s outfield today is O’Hearn, Hicks, and Ryan McKenna. That’s concerning, right?

Paul Sporer: LOL, it’s not amazing, but Austin Hays is getting an off-day. The Mullins injury is a hit for sure and they’ll probably play a few guys as opposed to just one guy to replace him. I’d have preferred calling up Colton Cowser over bringing in Aaron Hicks

Outfield Problems: Roster crunch coming… Please order these OFs in 5×5 h2h categories with OBP:  JMcCarthy, Ozuna, Nootbar, Grichuk, WadeJr

Paul Sporer: If McCarthy doesn’t show some signs before you have to make the cut, it’s probably him, although Grichuk is pretty empty AVG right now so he’s in consideration, too

Anthony Rendon: Rendon hopes to be back next week. So… back in August?

Paul Sporer: LOL, ouch

Siri: Varland or detmers? 12 to h2h QS league

Paul Sporer: Detmers but it’s close. Varland gets a 2-step next wk but it’s at TB/at TOR which is really rough especially w/his HR issue

Jamie: Your view on Josiah Gray?  What are the chances he starts striking people out again?

Paul Sporer: I love that he’s trimmed the HRs quite a bit, but it seems to have come at the expense of some Ks and his BB rate has gotten even worse at 12%. I’m still not completely comfortable w/him, so he’s more of a team streamer

Justin: Smyly and Ranger Suarez (Phillies) for Johan Duran?

Paul Sporer: That’s fine

seth: Elly De La Cruz over or under 30HR/30SB at the end of the season?

Paul Sporer: Probably over in the minors

Yo, PS Raps: In a vaccum…would you swap Scwarbs for Tim Anderson if McKinstry was your SS. I’m loaded at OF.

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s fine

Guest: Corbin Carroll: Great player or greatest player?

Paul Sporer: GREATESTTTTTTT

Kevin: I’m losing patience with MJ Melendez looking great on Statcast but bad in real life. Is there something deeper going on there?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size & whether or not it’s 2-Catcher. He’s still ranked 15th among Cs this yr despite the struggles so I’m still holding in 2-catcher leagues

seth: FYI, i think people can turn off the emojis in the chat by clicking the ‘My Jotcast’ icon and turning Reactions OFF

Paul Sporer: Oh no, is the super-reactor here again? lol

Angels on the Mound: Canning and Barria both seem interesting. Are they team streamers in a deep league? Competition is Lorenzen and Kremer.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m all for both as team streamers especially over Kremer. Bit closer w/Lorenzen depending on future matchups

Guestish: Does Cease look right to you. Wondering is he’s a buy-low in a 12 teamer.

Paul Sporer: He isn’t fully on his game, but that’s part of what we get with a 40-command pitcher. He ran really well last yr and went off. He’s not massively different from that but the small margin for error w/his command can shift the results a good bit

Trea Turner: Will I ever come close to paying off on my draft price?

Paul Sporer: Plentyyyyy of time to do so

Micah: I assume regular chatters know how to hide emoji reactions, but just in case…

Emoji Troll: Dont give him attention and then maybe he’ll stop tbh

Paul Sporer: Fair, but I do like ppl to know how to turn ’em off that way they’re emoji-ing into the void lol

Lance Lynn: Am I cooked or what

Paul Sporer: Not entirely, he still looks like himself for innings at a time in virtually every start, but then has a blowup inning to spoil the outing a bit. I have a hard time getting away from completely. I’m OK if you’re not starting him everywhere right now, but I’m still trying not to cut him if I can afford it

Guest: Luke Raley is available in a 12-team league, standard scoring.  Is he a better play than, say, Christian Walker, Kyle Schwarber, or James Outman?

Paul Sporer: OK I’m understanding his Yahoo! roster rate a bit more, lol. And honestly, the 3 OF format changes a lot, too. I’m used to 5, but gotta remember 3 is very prevalent. I don’t think I’d take him over that trio

JB: The stats are there at the end of the year, but why does Kyle Tucker always feel so underwhelming in-season?

Guest: Kyle Tucker has not lived up to his billing as a first round draft pick.  What do you see ahead for him?

Paul Sporer: Pacing toward a .271/21/21/101 RBI/61 R season… not exactly what we want (or what we’ll get) but hardly a problem for anyone right now. He’ll be fine. It can feel a bit underwhelming during the season as JB pointed out, but he gets his numbers and I stilly fully believe in him as a stud

Paul Sporer: I’m going to have to call it here, y’all… Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one!