Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 29th, 2024

Paul Sporer: How’s it going, y’all? Thanks for coming out!

weekly Corbin Carroll sob session: even his sprint speed is down (or is that just crappier contact => less reason to run fast?)

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m not too worried about the speed. I definitely think if he were healthy and hitting like expected, we’d be seeing the 2Bs and 3Bs w/his blazing speed

Guest: Do I give up on Corbin Carroll and try to trade him for a 3rd/4th rounder?

Paul Sporer: You can. As long as you’ll be comfortable if he rebounds. Just got weigh the two and decide how you’ll feel.

Broken Bat: Cubs had 6 years to fix Estrada. Padres get in done in 4 months? What is with that?

Paul Sporer: Hard to pinpoint any single thing, every case is different and it happens allll the time in baseball with guys moving around through organizations. Never know when you might link w/the career-changing coach or teammate!

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. (sorry i missed you last week)

Paul Sporer: NO. WORRIES.

Fant’sy Feast: Hey Paul,

Paul Sporer: Hi

JW: I added Ben Brown after yesterday (dropped X Bogarts). Me do good?

Paul Sporer: Few feelings better in this game than a free agent clicking instantly. It doesn’t guarantee future success, but nice to get off on the right foot!

Izzy: Jazz is 3rd in CF WAR… is he now a legit above average player? He’s always been talented, but more promise than reality.

Paul Sporer: I think we’ve seen him excel before, it’s just a matter of staying healthy. If he can, there’s a ton of upside!

Guest: so the Suwinski demotion happened. end of the line or will getting away from Haines for a bit let him find what worked last season?

Paul Sporer: I’ll jump back in when he returns if things click in Triple-A

Simeon: Does Wood Richardson’s pretty solid start against a hot offense yesterday earn him a higher place in your daily pitcher rankings ? Or still red flags keeping you uncertain?

Paul Sporer: I want to see how the whole 2-step goes so I’ll do a deeper dive after his trip to HOU this weekend

Billy: Having a mediocre-off at third base. Miranda, Arenado and Edmundo Sosa. Recently all three have been playing comparatively but doubt that will last and I need the roster spot. Should I drop one or would it be worth shopping one around?

Paul Sporer: Dang, I didn’t realize Sosa was raking. 91 PA, but damn (1.000 OPS, 3 HR, 2 SB)… I really like Miranda, but he might be the cut. Seems tough to hold all 3. Shopping never hurts, but I know it’s not always easy to do trades so I’m reluctant to recommend too often

Paul: Need to replace K Carpenter (or maybe Langford).  Please rank ROS:  Happ, Duvall, Vierling, Raley.  13 team mixed redraft.  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued by Vierling. He’s tapping into some power vR and could absorb most of Carp’s PT so I think I’d go there. Raley is close. I drafted him but had to cut early bc he just wasn’t producing and that’s just part of end of the roster churning. I like that he runs a bit. Vierling could, but Raley is more adept at it. So it’s a toss up between those. Seattle has more lefties in the short-term so Vierling could get the PT edge.

Paul Sporer: I kinda went back n forth there, lol… I’d go for Vierling.

Ted: Any significant concerns for (or change in general valuation of) Lopez or Kirby? Feel like both are quickly losing the set-and-forget status, though maybe I’m overreacting to a few gnarly starts.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think I’m too worried about either. They’re both experiencing some pretty ugly HR issues while their core skills remain mostly intact. Lopez gets trips to HOU and NYY next which are definitely more scary w/a HR problem, but I’d have to be pretty flush in pitching to find a sit for either spot. Duds are just part of the deal w/Lopez. He had 7 starts of 5+ ER last yr (3 this yr). Kirby was running a 4% HR/FB rate in his first 7 starts and it’s spiked back to 20% over his L4 w/7 HRs in that time. Just riding out the storm and keeping him firmly entrenched in all my lineups

Broken Bat: love your effort, and thanks for responding to my Estrada question, but your response is vanilla. A cop out. Estrada in 120 days of the Padres organization from ST thru current was fixed. The Cubs? 6-7 years? Call it what it is… Cubs missed this BIG TIME.

Paul Sporer: It is a miss, but it’s part of baseball. It’s not a vanilla answer, it’s the fact of baseball. Some guys just click in other organizations. Every miss isn’t an indictment of an organization. If patterns develop, that can be addressed. But you can find guys who did nothing w/a team only to make a massive turn w/their next org

Marte: I know we are weeks away from him returning, but do you think Noelvi Marte is worth stashing in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: If you can freely afford the spot, sure. But I wouldn’t compromise my current team to stash him

Crochet Needles: I was looking to sell high on Crochet, but in a QS roto league should I be looking to possibly keep him in the 18th round next year? I am desperate for offense, but those ks…

Paul Sporer: If you can land some premium hitting, I’m open to it if only because hitting is generally more bankable

Joe: Vinny P droppable in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s OK

Gabriel Moreno: Was last post season a mirage and this is who he is?

Paul Sporer: The postseason wasn’t necessarily a mirage, but rather it just hasn’t been indicative of a power surge. He had a run similar to his playoffs in August of 2023: .362/.412/.723, 4 HR in 51 PA. My concern is the batting average bc I expected that to be there at the very least. A .269 BABIP should regress back toward his .323 career mark and deliver more AVG over the rest of the way even w/him not hitting the ball quite as well as he did last year

Insert Witty Name Here: You pouring out a 40oz for Angel Hernandez?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t love much of what he did on the field, but I wish him well in retirement!

Baseball!: Better stash for this season only 5×5 loperfido or j walker?

Paul Sporer: I’m still in on Jordan Walker in the long-term

Chucky: Elly’s May numbers look worse than his awful 2023 second half numbers. Is it time to re-evaluate? Beginning to think this is who the real Elly is. The EV and sprint speed work well at the combine. Not so much on the diamond. Why am I getting a Billy Hamilton vibe?

Paul Sporer: This is just the volatility of his skills. Even hitting as poorly as he is this month, he leads MLB in SBs!! He’s WAY better than Billy Hamilton, but definitely a volatile player who I imagine frustrates those who have him on the roster in H2H leagues

The Governor: When do you think the Toronto Blue Jays are going to start all over and rebuild?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know if they’re gonna start over or try to retool and keep a particular core. It’s a tough lineup right now. Could be a fun rebuild project in OOTP

Froyo Rope: Can Albert Suarez provide legit fantasy value for the foreseeable future?

Paul Sporer: If you can post decent ratios w/a strong Win chance every time out, you have fantasy value! He has an avenue in all formats. He won’t fit on all 10 team rosters, but there’s probably a team or 2 in each 10-teamer that could use him and then 12s and up, I’d be surprised if there many rosters who couldn’t find any space for him in the short-term

Günter Hreene: Still think Hunter Greene has a homer problem, or have you given up on that yet?

Paul Sporer: If I thought he was doing something to earn that 6% HR/FB rate, I’d be more excited. He’s been great almost exclusively because of the HR suppression. Maybe it’ll last all year, but I’d still bet on his 13% HR/FB rate, especially since he’s still a heavy flyball pitcher

Beano: Sell R Lopez based on his hot start — which I don’t trust?

Paul Sporer: If you don’t trust him, it’s a great time to sell. You should be able to get a nice return for him. Strong performance on a great squad should find a buyer

Guest: Carroll just struck out swinging at a 90 mph 4 seamer right down the middle AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Paul Sporer: Oof.

Joe: Are Seiya and Hoerner droppable in ten team leagues? Seiya in particular is just doing nothing.

Paul Sporer: Seiya I can see. He hasn’t done anything since coming off the IL. Hoerner has turned things around in May so I’m inclined to hold, but I guess it’d depend who was available for him

Mike: Evan Carter worth an IL stash?  Switch out him for Eloy?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I prefer Carter to Eloy by a little

Musgrove: Am I still a #2 or am I now a streamer, now that the deadened ball — I mean decrease in home runs — have lowered era’s leaguewide?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I dropped him in the May rankings, but not enough. He has perplexed me all year. I never felt comfortable slotting him during draft season. I’m still reluctant to cut him, but I don’t mind sitting him

Mike: Are you holding James Wood through a minor league IL stint?

Paul Sporer: No, probably not. Roster size and league settings of course play a role, but not many spots where I’m holding

Pants: 12 team Roto 5×5 dynasty. Saw Mac Gore is available, do you like him more long term than pfaddt, k Harrison, or Ben brown?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I like Gore over the group in terms of pure upside. If he’s truly figuring it out, he can be a legit stud

Charlie: thanks for the chat. In a vacuum, start Ober vs. KC? I’m gun shy because of the season opening strafing!

Paul Sporer: Understand the trepidation, but I’m running him. He has a 3.30 ERA since then. KC is good but I don’t think they’ve got him on auto-sit mode just yet

Baby Goat: Are we buying into Megill’s impressive 16 innings this season or is it just a typical Megill mini-hot streak?

Paul Sporer: Yes but also maybe yes to the second question, too. The thing is, in today’s fantasy game you have to jump quickly when a pitcher shows anything so it might just be another solid run by Megill, but I’m willing to see where it goes.

Darth Sabean: How much of Pfaadt’s ERA/FIP mismatch is low-key flaw in his skills, and how much is bad mojo? He’s got the peripherals of a top-30 starter but ERA gonna ERA.

Paul Sporer: Perhaps even more frustrating is that he’s curbed the HRs, too! He has modest 61% LOB rate which seems to be the only real issue in his profile. I haven’t seen enough starts to know if that’s been some bad luck or something he is struggling with specifically. He doesn’t have any sort of major third time through the order issues so that isn’t where the LOB% issues are coming from, either.

Bottom line is I’m inclined to stay the course w/him and bet on these skills bringing the LOB% rate back toward 70% mark from last yr and hopefully he keeps the HRs in check. The downside would be the LOB% issues continuing AND the HRs returning, so it’s not risk-free to and we’ll just keep tabs on him every 2-4 starts to see what’s up

Guest: With Murphy back do I drop Jeffers? Or try to hold on to both for the time being.

Paul Sporer: Seems like a 1-C league and while I generally try to roster just 1 in those leagues w/no reserve, I will hold a replacement for someone returning from the IL and given how well Jeffers has been playing, he’s easy to hang onto, too!

Salty: JD Mart or Noot for all cats ROS?

Paul Sporer: Noot for me

Tim: How concerned are you about Josh Jung and his wrist? I’m hoping it doesn’t turn him from my long term 3B to something like Matt Dominguez

Paul Sporer: Wrist injuries always give me some concern about power, so I’ll be keeping an eye out

Rotation: How would you rank Grayson, Ragans, and Sonny Gray ROS? Trying to gauge their respective values for trades.

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-in-season-starting-pitcher-rankings…

Guest: How much more time do we give before Carroll is simply droppable?

Paul Sporer: For me, he’s a long way from being droppable. I know he doesn’t have a lengthy track record, but I don’t think you fake 25/50 seasons and I’m just going to ride it out w/Carroll as long as he’s playing. Even if it’s going to be a down year, it’s very unlikely he will post just a .547 OPS.

18 team league: Cal Quantrill has had 5 solid starts in a row and is seeming to hit his stride. Is he worth a roster spot in an 18 team format?

Paul Sporer: Sure in deep leagues, I think he can merit a spot for sure

The Bloom is off the Arozarena: Is Arozarena still a buy low or a stay-away? Clarke Schmidt too much to give up?

Paul Sporer: I’m still interested in buying and Schmidt is a fair price. Solid deal IMO

Guest: Is it time to give up on Castellanos?

Paul Sporer: Depends on the league size but it’s rooough

Guest: Are you concerned about Snell, or is it too small of a sample size?

Paul Sporer: Yes but also yes… I do have some concerns, but yeah w/it being just 5 starts, I’m not acting on it. I’m still riding w/Snell

Ryan Jeffers: I’ve been pretty horrible for about a month.

Paul Sporer: It’s been a 2-week comedown after he surged to a .997 OPS. It amounts to 44 PA and I’m not too worried about it

Harry Lime: Could Seiya Suzuki still be hurt. He was smok’in before getting hurt.

Paul Sporer: Definitely possibly and why injuries are so brutal bc we never know how they might linger

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out! Thanks so much coming. Back next week at the same time!