Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 28th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat as always. Hoping you could rank these SP ROS in 12tm mixed QS roto: Megill, Gonsolin, Cecconi, Darvish, Dobbins, Misiorowski

Paul Sporer: That’s close to my order, though sight unseen I think I gotta move Darvish to last right now despite being a huge fan of him overall. Just not sure he can be trusted right now and then even when he does come back, are we gonna get many 6 IP starts?

Guest: Santander admits he’s still trying to plow through 2 injuries, and I’m over here really losing patience with the lack of an IL stint, but is Grisham still the drop if I’m over-outfielded?

Paul Sporer: I’m trying to be better at not just holding through lost causes but I also know we have to be careful not to overreact. That said, it’s June later this wk and he’s well below .200 AVG with a sub-20 HR pace… I think at this juncture Santander is the cut. While Grisham likely won’t keep this pace, his surge isn’t completely outta nowhere so I like holding him instead of Santander right now

Jasper: Hi Paul

Jasper: Hi Paul.

Paul Sporer: Hi Jasper!

CT: You rolling with Megill in the dicey at best @LA and @COL two step next week?

Paul Sporer: Holy smokes that is scary. The Rockies suck so while it’s easier to attack them at home, it’s still not easy bc Coors is Coors. I might run him in 15s, but I’m not sure I’m taking the plunge elsewhere

Bonespurs: Can Bryce Miller be effective with me, or are you dropping?   What a bust!

Paul Sporer: It’s really hard to say bc injuries affect guys different. I probably stop a little short of calling him bust bc the injury reasoning is there and while some may say it’s a “excuse”, I don’t really subscribe to that. I don’t think explaining why something happened is necessarily making excuses. At any rate, I’m def concerned about Miller the rest of this year. I’m not cutting anywhere, but my expectations have come down a good bit

Belly Yelicher: Hi Paul! Could you rank these OF with awful peripherals ROS in a 5×5 OBP roto league: Yelich, Mullins, Harris II

Paul Sporer: I have a lean toward Yelich, especially in OBP as I trust his BB% more than Mullins’s which has cratered after his hot April. Harris is the clear 3rd here for me

Hank Scorpio: What are you doing with Barger in 12tm 6×6? All the xStats are there and Savant is ruby red (once qualified). BABIP is there too. We just holding and hoping for better days?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d try to hang on to see if he can breakthrough! Lots to like with Barger. I was chasing him in my 15s but got beat out. He can be an impact guy!

Tim: Hey Paul, two things.

1. love the podcast
2. Drake Baldwins statcast page is bonkers overall but especially for a catcher

That is all

Paul Sporer:

1. Thank you so much!!!
2. Holy smokes, it is incredible! I hadn’t realized it was quite that good. I guess that’s why he’s toting a blistering 154 wRC+ in 105 PA!!

viva el gallo: My $24 Gilbert for their $1 Eury fair value w/ both coming off the IL? Shallow 10-team Keeper league w/ QS instead of wins. 9th of 10th right now, but never out of it. Still, probably best to play for 2026.

Paul Sporer: In a keeper with an eye toward next yr, I can get behind that. Agreed that you def shouldn’t be giving up on the season just yet but I don’t think this trade necessarily does that even if Eury doesn’t deliver a ton of value this season.

Abstract Thinker: Do you think Palencia becomes the closer, or does B. Keller have a shot at it also?

Paul Sporer: With 3 straight SVs, I think it’s Palencia’s job rn. TBD whether or not he holds it, but he’s the guy to get right now for sure

Hawk: Is Miguel Vargas figuring it out or just SSS?

Paul Sporer: Full disclosure: I’m a long-term big fan of Vargas and I always felt he was better than what we’d seen 2022-24 w/the .204 BABIP really holding him back so I think this is some regression to mean where he’s figuring it out. I don’t wanna go full confirmation bias just bc I like him, but I definitely think he can be a plus bat the rest of the way, somewhere in the 110-120 wRC+ range w/good pop.

Kallus: 15 team 5×5 and in need of SB.  Is Mateo (Bal) worth an add?

Paul Sporer: Yes I think so. I’m actually kinda bummed I had him too low on my pickup list this past Sunday and got someone else ahead of him now that he has 5 SBs in his last 4 gms. No one ended up getting him so I’ll def be eyeing him again this Sunday. There is major downside on his AVG, but let’s chase the SBs for now

Abstract Thinker: Thanks for taking our questions. What are your expectations for Logan Henderson ROS in MLB? Over or under on 3.50 ERA 1.15 WHIP ROS?  Over/under by a lot or small amount?

Paul Sporer: I gotta go over. He certainly can get the 3.50 ERA/1.15 WHIP but that’s probably the high end. I don’t really think we’ll see the 36% K rate hold up entirely so I’d probably put the projection more in the high-3.00s/low-4.00s range

FBP: Two questions:  Any insight as to Caspirius’s opportunity to become a starter?

Paul Sporer: I really wish I knew why they are running Landon Knack in the rotation over him, but Casparius seems like the 6th man so once there’s an opening, he should get a chance. I’ve actually been holding onto him in one of my Main Event lgs though it will get dicey if some injuries hit me. In short, if you’re not rostering him, you should at least have him firmly atop your watchlist!

Rik: As a former high ranking prospect Colt Keith has been mediocre at best. Long-term do you see a top 10-15 second baseman or are expectations now lower?

Paul Sporer: Still think there’s a good bit of upside in his bat. He has been on fire in May after a slow start and was pretty good from May on last yr, too. Maybe he just hates April!! I can’t blame him, cold weather suuucks!

viva el gallo: Best pickup in a 10-team keeper Roto w/ QS?

viva el gallo: Baz, Warren, Bradley, G. Holmes

Paul Sporer: Warren’s been the best of the bunch skillswise, but has reached 6 IP just once, so I lean toward Holmes/Bradley at the top, then Warren and Baz last.

Santander/Grisham: thx Paul! this logjam wouldn’t even be happening if Ward hadn’t decided it was time to go off… #firstworldproblems
(…or is that streak already over?)

Paul Sporer: I think Taylor Ward is pretty legit! Not 9 HRs/month legit, but capable of 115-120 wRC+ for sure.

Reamonn: In a dynasty with the best offense and worst defense, should I get more than Skubal for PCA? Or is one for one fair? I have a comolet

Reamonn: Sorry, hit send too early before. Is my PCA for Skubal fair in dynasty or should I ask for more? I am stacked at OF and my offense is the best, but my pitching is terrible and decimated with injuries.

Paul Sporer: I think that’s a totally fair 1:1. Pitchers are inherently scarier bc of their health risk but you’re getting the best SP in baseball for an amazing breakout OF. Seems pretty fair to me!!

Houzer: Tarik Skubal – let’s say the asking price is 400 over 10 at the end of next season. Is that a contract that a mid-market team like the Tigers can afford to take on?

Paul Sporer: They certainly cannn, yes. Chris Illitch hasn’t been as open to spending as his pops was, buuuttt in some fairness to him, the team hasn’t been nearly as good until just recently and they did offer up big bucks to Bregman so now that Illitch is seeing the success, hopefully the wallet stays opened up where necessary and I think Skubal is a great spot to spend. As mentioned in the previous person’s question, pitching is inherently riskier than hitting so it’s always a little scary to give 10 yrs to an arm, but I’m not against the team investing in Skubes at all

Johnnie: Health permitting, Do you see Soroka has holding onto his position as a starter for the Nats?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes. I jumped on the train in spring and then back on board once he got off the IL!

Roses: Would love to know your opinion on Jacob Wilson윌슨 in an 18-team dynasty (OBP instead of AVG. sadly). I get the Arraez comps but he arguably already has more power and speed upside. At what HR/SB level do you think he becomes considered a bonafide stud?

Paul Sporer: I definitely understand the Arraez comps, but totally agree w/you that there’s more here with Wilson. He’s already shown a good bit more fantasy juice in HR/SB than we’ve seen from Arraez. Even if he’s at like 15 HRs/12 SBs with a .320 AVG, he’s a stonecold stud! I’m REALLY come around on Wilson since he’s come to the majors. Wasn’t really eyeing him as a prospect.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I’ve got a meeting at 2pm CT (whoops, 4 mins late) so I have to run! Back next week, have a good one