Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 22nd, 2024

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! We’ve got Skubal/Ragans on the iPad ready to talk some baseball!!!

Guest: Why does MLB hate home runs now??

Paul Sporer: lol, no idea… they can’t get their balls right!

Houzer: Who says no … Tigers send Skubal to the Orioles for Westburg and Kjerstad

Paul Sporer: Maaannnn, if we got BOTH of them, I’d have to be on board for that. That’d be really compelling

Houzer: Another one .. who says no- Tigers send Tork and Foley to the Blue Jays for Vladdy

Paul Sporer: Think the Jays def pass there. As much as I love Tork, I’d take Vladdy Jr.

Guest: Rengifo or Varsho ROS in AL only OBP league?

Paul Sporer: I’m on the Varsho train

JT: Is it time to call the Shapiro and Atkins turn to defense over offense from their position players a failure? Was it time to do that this time last year, too?

Paul Sporer: I think the Jays have to do more of a retool than a rebuild. I just can’t envision tearing it down to the studs and starting over. Vlad Jr. is still just 25, Bo just 26. I still think they are cornerstones… and I’m not out on Kirk at 25, either

Martin Sekulski: Hope you’re doing well Paul, hoping to see you again at FPAZ. As a Tigers fan, what went wrong with Meadows prior to his demotion?

Paul Sporer: I’ll be there!! He was just whiffing SOOOO much. Couldn’t get anything going. He certainly doesn’t have the power to K that much, so he’s gotta get better there

JT: When do we start to question the Cardinals’ ability to develop position players?

Paul Sporer: It wasn’t too long ago that we gave them credit for player dev, thinking that someone going to StL would improve. I know it was tabbed as Cardinal Devil Magic bc sometimes it’d seemingly come out of nowhere, but yeah, now we’re looking at some sputtering prospects plus the bevy of guys who’ve blossomed elsewhere. Maybe I’m just a hater due in large part to the Tyler O’Neill issue last year, but I’m so out on Oli Marmol. He’s not the SOLE reason or maybe even the MAIN reason, but I just don’t think he’s the dude to helm a winning ballclub

PJ: The Marlins are 6-4 in their last 10…thus expect Bendix to deal Jazz, Scott and Luzardo within the next few days.

Paul Sporer: lolololol

Joe: Nick Gonzales was was raking in AAA and has done decent for the Pirates this year, but his roster rate is super low. Is there any upside there in deeper leagues?

Paul Sporer: I was a big fan of his coming out of the draft (those college numbers were downright NSFW!) but I think the low roster rate is probably due to the lack of fantasy goodness that comes w/the expected AVG. He doesn’t run and doesn’t have a ton of pop, so it could be empty-ish AVG. That said, if he’s .280+, I’ll take that in many formats. Even empty AVG is welcome on some of my clubs where I’ve got guys hitting my weight (and I’m built like Triston McKenzie for those unaware)

Dave: You and Nick Pollack are my go-to SP rangers.  Just eyeballing things, one of the big disparities between your most recent ranks and his was MacKenzie Gore.  My sense is that Nick’s ranking is based on upside… are you not sold on that upside, or are you just concerned about his ability to reach it or team context?  Trying to figure out whether to think of him more as a team-streamer or a potential consistent rotation piece.

Paul Sporer: Yes, you’ve nailed it. The way we kinda go at our rankings will set up some fundamental differences. I have more of a deep lg slant whereas Nick’s is more shallow so he’s always shooting for the moon where I will value floor and stability a bit more. I’m intrigued by Gore, but not ready to fullllyyyy dive in just yet. Here’s our recent Fireside where we discuss our SP rankings — https://pitcherlist.com/fsc-9-sp-rankings-comparison/

Blake Snell: Are you starting me today?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but I’ll admit there is some pro-Snell bias there and I always understand ppl who just prefer to sit guys in their first start off the IL — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-may-22nd-2024/

Joey Loperfido: Can I be dropped in roto redraft 5×5 12 tm leagues?

Paul Sporer: Definitely, not playing nearly enough for 12s… hell, even in 15s he’s cuttable right now

LCA: Thanks for these chats Paul, always enjoy them. Where do we stand on Ranger Suarez? Ride it out as long as we can as a useful innings eater, or try to sell high? If selling, does Ragans for Suarez seem right?

Paul Sporer: If you can get Ragans, I’d do it in a second. I like Suarez and I’m def locking him into the lineup in all formats, buuuuttt I think this run is more “the best of what his skillset can do” as opposed to fundamental skill changes that have him on another level. I’d tab him for a mid-3.00s ERA, mid-1.20s WHIP rest of the way so I’d rather have Ragans if I can get that 1-for-1 done

Half Man, Half Manzardo: Which is thinner: Manzardo’s ROS outlook or Manzardo’s mustache?

Paul Sporer: lolololol

Paul Sporer: As someone with a dirt stache myself, far be it for me to cast aspersions at Manzo!!

Houzer: think the Cardinals entertain offers for Jordan Walker? What would it cost our beloved Tigers?

Paul Sporer: I’m still fully bought in on Walker, but I assume the Cards mostly are, too, so the price would rightfully be steep. Doesn’t mean I couldn’t get behind a trade, but I don’t think there’s any sort of major discount at this juncture

Vlad, Kevin and Bo: It is becoming painfully clear that we are all about to be traded. Watch out USA!

Paul Sporer: Invasion from the north!

Rest of Year: Vaughn Grissom losing 14lbs, how long could it take him to get back to preseason expectations? Said differently how much patience (in weeks) should managers offer him?

Paul Sporer: Giving him 4-6 wks in deep lgs, 3-4 wks in medium, and 2-3 wks in shallow… probably lean toward the high end of those timelines if Grissom was one of “my guys” coming into the year

Joey Loperfido: Zack Gelof or Michael Massey ROS in standard roto 5×5 leagues?

Paul Sporer: Oh this is why Loperfido is struggling w/the Stros, he’s too busy running his fantasy teams!! Well I’ll help you anyway, Joey, but get back in the cage!! Gelof treated me SO well down the stretch last yr but I never bought into that power as his real level. I lean toward Massey in this 1 v. 1 unless you REALLY need Gelof’s SBs

Cami Maybe: I’m increasingly convinced Caminero isn’t coming up until very late this season, regardless of his playing some 2B…

Paul Sporer: It’s just always SO hard to confidently map prospect call-ups out because teams can make a plan and then it gets blown up if a guy or two gets hurt and another underperforms for 2-3 wks. You mention the 2B which is important bc otherwise it’s hard to place him in the lineup. Brandon Lowe’s health and poor #s can definitely open up an avenue for Cami to be here early summer, but I’m not speculating on him anytime soon w/a roster spot

Greg: Updated SP ranks – where?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-in-season-starting-pitcher-rankings…

Chuck: No Lodolo on your May SP ranks. He of the 2.91 FIP/3.13 xFIP/24.3 K-BB%. Defend yourself.

Paul Sporer: Injured

Paul Sporer: I just decided a couple years ago not to rank injured guys in-season bc timelines get so messy. And since I do the SP chart during the season, you can get a read of where I’d have them if they were healthy. For example, Lodolo is consistently a 2-3 x recommendation so he’d likely slot in the Most Formats tier — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-in-season-starting-pitcher-rankings…

Ed: Is your boy Tork back on track/what’s your outlook ROS?

Paul Sporer: After the uber slow start last yr, I’m willing to give him some leeway this year. He’s been markedly better in May, but that’s more bc April was SOOOO bad. Need a couple more HRs and a mid-700s OPS for May or else he becomes a shallow lg cut for me

John Means Business: A walk from Means! So he ISN’T Maddux after alll…

Paul Sporer: I jinxed him by mentioning it in the SP chart lol

Flamouts: How would rank these SPs ROS?  Reese Olson, Cole Irvin, Christian Scott, Gavin Stone

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-in-season-starting-pitcher-rankings…

HathShat: Adell hit .327 thru 4/28, since he has more bombs of course, but is only hitting .183 with a .156 BAbip. You think it can even out, or is he just an all or nothing guy?

Paul Sporer: Yeah it just seems like guys like that w/poor plate skills have the bigger ebbs & flows to their season. I haven’t done any firm study on that, my feeling in anecdotal, but that’s generally how I view it

Tony: Jamison is my weakest SP.  Would you release him for Megill (NYM), Sandoval, or Verlander?  League counts IP, QS, K/9.  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Prefer JV over Jameson Taillon, I’m also OK just playing matchups w/that group

Johnny: Do you trust Manoah yet?  Manoah or L Severino ROS?  Thx.

Paul Sporer: Still playing it cautiously w/him, but would’ve ranked him higher than 113 had his Sunday start been in the books when I was doing the rankings. I don’t get overlyyyy influenced by one start, but it was a 2nd straight gem and I would’ve def gotten him into the Team Streamers category which is pitchers 71-100

Hank: Will Happ rebound?  Is he a buy-low in 13 team mixed redraft?  Would be dropping either Suwinski or Carpenter.

Paul Sporer: Loved Suwinski coming into the year, but he’s been ROUGH. I still like the whole trio (assuming that’s Kerry Carpenter) but I’m OK swapping Suwinski for Happ. All told, I’m not sure they’re TOO far apart rest of season, but Happ’s PT is secured whereas Suwinski is starting to lose his

Matt: Hypothetically, if a 10 category 12 team roto dynasty team had 24 total points this far into the season, they should sell, kinda regardless of circumstance, right? Hypothetically

Paul Sporer: Yeaaahhh I’m all for grinding it out and not giving up on teams too early, but that seems like a pretty dire situation that I’m not sure can be overcome

Dave: Vinnie P. just popped out as I’m typing this… what do you think of him ROS?  Top-12 1B?  It does seem like his underlying metrics are looking decent…

Vinnie Pasquantino: Are smart fantasy owners trying to trade for me right now?

Paul Sporer: I do think trading for Vinnie P. makes a lot of sense. Brilliant plate skills, power metrics in order, but that ugly .232 BABIP is holding him back. I can definitely see a strong summer from him!

De-Mize: Nick P told me to drop Mize in his SP roundup. Are you feeling similarly harsh? Should I trade for a bat in an AL keeper?

Paul Sporer: He said drop in AL-Only?! I’m just not sure what’s gonna be available on the wire of an AL-Only. He’s definitely a “better in real life than fantasy” type pitcher so I understand moving on in mixers, but I’m probably holding in AL

Bill: N Marte (CIN) or J Dominguez (NYY) better stash in redraft?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Dominguez

Matt: SWR pulled after 4.2, 1K 3H 1BB 1 HBP, 77 pitches. WTF?!

Paul Sporer: PAIN!!!

Walter: Man, Mullins has been brutal. Drop him for Tyler Freeman in an OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m good w/that move and feel like Ced might start losing PT soon given Baltimore’s depth

weekly Corbin Carroll sob session: I have no question

Paul Sporer: It’s been SOOO rough. The crazy thing is, I still don’t think I’m sitting him anywhere. I’m just riding it out hoping for the turnaround

Saul Pporer: Was tired of Carroll. Swapped him for a struggling Arozarena.

Paul Sporer: Yeah if you’re just out on him this year, I don’t hate that, espec. bc I’m confident in Rozy rebounding

Paul Skenes: Would you trade me for a top 3 closer right now if you needed saves?

Paul Sporer: In redraft, sure. But yeah, it’s gotta be a CREAM of the crop closer

Awesome Name: Where would Gerrit Cole be in your SP rankings if he were healthy?

Paul Sporer: He goes right back into the Top 20 right away, but probably not quite the Top 10 immediatelyyyy

Jack: Have both Mize and Detmers in  a Dynasty league. Both are very frustrating. Won’t be able to hold on to both of them and not even sure if I want to keep either of them. Looking towards next couple of years. Your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Definitely Detmers. I totally get the frustration, but between those 2, Detmers has major fantasy upside bc he misses bats

Good Will Hunter: Following Hunter Brown on gamecast. When he misses the zone, the balls are fully invisible…

Paul Sporer: lololol yeah I’m watching and that definitely checks out

Jolly Cole: Ragans outpitching Skubal so far? Has anyone seen Ragans and superman in the same place?

Paul Sporer: Ragans has been EXCELLENT. Skubes was wobbly in the 2nd, but rebounding here in the 3rd, aided by a CS of Witt

Paul Sporer: And then capped off w/a great K of Perez

Guest: Why is Matt Manning so high in your rankings?

Paul Sporer: Fair Q… just some preseason bias carrying over. He’s one of a handful I’d make a pretty tangible move on  if re-did the rankings today. The problem is that can be an endless cycle of shifting guys so sometimes I just have to settle on a ranking and go from there. Also with the in-season rankings, there isn’t enough time to deep-dive everyone so sometimes my assessments are a little outdated, as was the case w/Manning

Kate: Will the White Sox eventually let Korey Lee play more than every other day?  I don’t think Martin Maldonado needs 80 starts behind the plate at this point in his career for a horrible team.

Paul Sporer: Especially bc Maldy’s framing isn’t even good anymore. Dude is living off a hot 2016!!

Brando: Springer’s K and BB rates are as good as ever, but batted ball numbers are terrible.  Slow start or beginning of the end?

Paul Sporer: I think more the former. Justin and I discussed him a week ago and came to the conclusion that we’re sticking w/him despite the rough start

Chris: Can Houck pull off 160 IP this year given his much lower career/RP totals? Or is he a candidate to trade once he’s closing in on 100, assuming he’s only got 120-130?

Paul Sporer: After 115 last yr between MLB/AAA, I think 150-160 should definitely be on the table this year especially if they can stay in WC contention

Guest: springer wasn’t great last year either tho

Paul Sporer: Ooh I dunno about that, he went 20/20 w/a decent .258 AVG. Ranked top 20-25 at OF

Davwt: Evan Carter….. droppable?

Paul Sporer: In shallow lgs, yes. I’m still holding in 15s or deeper

Moelicious: Anything useful about David Fry in a 12 team league?

Paul Sporer: Love Fry, always down to roster a C-eligible guy who doesn’t actually have to catch often. Tough part is the playing time might be a little light for 12s so he’s still borderline despite the excellent numbers. If it’s a 2-C league, I’m definitely in

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta run a tight hour today as I’m working on some things that need to be done today…. Thanks so much for coming out, I’ll see y’all next week!!