Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 1st, 2024

Paul Sporer: Helllloooooo!!!!

Elvis the Pelvis: Should Matt Waldron be a consideration moving forward in a QS points league?

Paul Sporer: As a standard streamer, sure, nothing more

Alekkkkkkkkkkkk: What to make of the Manoah rehab start?

Paul Sporer: It was cool and I’m rooting for him, but he’s firmly in the “need 3-4 starts” to really start paying attention

Günter: Is this a lost season for O’Neil Cruz? Or maybe he just isn’t cut out for big leagues?

Paul Sporer: Lost season definitely too early to say any of that. This is downside of this profile, though. Elly is showing how great it can be (and I’m not saying they are 1:1 dead even, but their general profiles are close) and Cruz is showing why I’m so nervous to take such a profile in the 2nd round. Elly has also spiked his BB% very nicely this year which is way different than expectations. But anyway, re: Cruz, I’m not quitting him. He’s a good 5-7 gms from getting his #s back on track

Joe Musgrove: My peripherals look the same as years past, so why is my FIP and performance so insanely bad?

Paul Sporer: Hits and homers. He’s close. Definitely off right now, but close enough that I’m still holding in all formats. Nick & I discussed him in some detail during our Fireside Chat this week– https://pitcherlist.com/fsc-6-sp-analysis-shift-one-month-in/

Owen: Thanks for the chat! Any idea when you will update your SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: Next week!

Bryan: Is Jared Jones an ace? Are you expecting any regression here?

Paul Sporer: Not a true ace yet. Need multiple seasons to earn that tag for me. But he’s an all-formats must-start right now and that’s all that really matters in the here & now. We can adjust if Pittsburgh starts managing innings or anything like that, but he’s a monster right now and absolutely must-watch TV!

Gleyber Pains: Dude is killing me… 0 HR through April… I don’t want to drop, since Julien/Stott is the only reasonable option, but man..

Paul Sporer: Yeah the 0-fer with HRs is tough to stomach for a whole month. Can you cut someone lesser on your roster to scoop Julien and maybe bench Gleybs for a bit? I’m definitely looking to hold Gleyber a bit longer, but clock is ticking in 10-teamers.

Jackson Chourio: Is 2023 Anthony Volpe a fair comp? I’ll have a horrible BA and strike out rate the rest of the way but go 20/20? Convince my owner not to send me to the wire for a pitcher

Paul Sporer: Yes that’s a fantastic frame of reference for Chourio’s start. And he’s even pacing better closer to 25 HR/30 SB which would be enough to eat the crap AVG (that may improve as the season goes on)

Warren: reeling from this Trout news (though injury risk was obv priced in)…shopping for another bat, is Joe Ryan for Arraez an overpay?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d want a more impactful bat unless you really only need AVG. I’m also super bummed about the Trout news. As you said, we knew the risk but that doesn’t make it any less of a bummer or the people who are so eager to point out his risk any less annoying, lol

We all KNOW that’s why we got him in the 4th-5th rd (15 tm leagues), but we can still be bummed the f out about losing a big piece off our teams. Hell, even when I wasn’t rostering Trout in the recent past years, I was still always sad when he got hurt. Watching Trout rules!

MS: Looking at Pablo Lopez…most metrics look solid (K/9, K%, BB%, xERA, WHIP, etc.)…but that 4.83 ERA is not working. The LOB% stands out, is that just bad luck or is there something more I am not seeing?

Paul Sporer: The 1.7 HR is probably a bigger culprit. HRs are the quickest way to sour an ERA. That also dings the LOB rate. I don’t think it’s all just bad luck, but Lopez is very good and he’s still a full-on rotation lock in all formats. If this HR issue is still there into June, we can assess further

Sell High, Buy Lo(dolo): Hey Paul! Thanks as always for the chat. Curious your thoughts on Nick Lodolo moving forward. He’s looked great so far. If I need OF help, is trading for someone like Brian Reynolds or Castellanos a fair return or should I aim higher?

Paul Sporer: I feel comfortable with Bryan Reynolds for Lodolo. Casty shouldddd be a standard buy low but I have some nerves w/him. Of course, it’s an actual buy-low where a rebound isn’t obvious meaning you will get a legit discount. I think you should be able to get him for less than Lodolo so I’d focus on the Reynolds area of bats instead

Mike: What do you make of Hunter Greene so far? Should we just expect him to be incredibly inconsistent like this through the year? Would you only start him based on matchup?

Paul Sporer: Yes on expecting inconsistency which means no on starting him based on matchup. When he’s on, he can cook ANYBODY, but when he’s off, the Marlins or White Sox or Tigers can rip 3 HRs off him meaning you just have to start him and take the good w/the bad otherwise you really risk starting the duds and benching the gems bc he doesn’t have an easy start/sit split to follow. Wrote more on him a while back: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-april-16th-2024/

Guest: aaah here it comes for Suwinski, hitting 8th vs the righty. Calling now that he’s not gonna make it to Mother’s Day. Sigh. I have just about the best league settings for him, but alas… cut now, hunt down the hitting coach who turned him into Victor Robles later

Paul Sporer: Bummer to see him dropped to 8 v a righty, but I can’t get away from him just yet. I like the drop in K% and really thought that was something he could do coming into the season. It hasn’t netted results yet, but a .200 BABIP and 7% HR/FB are really holding him back. There is a 7% drop in HardHit rate and his Barrel is more than cut in half at 7% so he’s contributing to those lagging BABIP and HR/FB totals, but I still have hope of a turnaround

Ryan: Is Bryce Miller possibly the best arm in Mariners rotation?

Paul Sporer: No, I can’t get there this quickly. He might be pitching the best ball right now but I still make a distinction between that and being the best arm in a rotation. He’s an excellent #4 who could be a #2/3 on MANY teams but I’m still taking Castillo/Kirby/Gilbert over him with ease… which pro those guys, not negative on Miller

Mookie Monster: So is Patrick Bailey a good fantasy catcher now?

Paul Sporer: Running hot and is even viable in some 1-C formats right now. He probably won’t hold this level all year, but he can definitely be better than 2023 from here on. Maybe a low-.700s OPS projection w/a .250ish AVG and some pop

Kjerstad: Why’d they call me up?

Paul Sporer: Bc he’s a great player. I understand it’s annoying that he’s not playing and you can make the case that he’s better off getting every day burn in AAA that sporadic burn in MLB, but they decided they could afford to have the great bench bat for now. There’s simply no room at the inn right now, but once there is, I’m all in on Kjerstad.

Ryan: Is it time to panic on Corbin Carroll? I truly believed he was a top 5 player going into the year

Paul Sporer: There is reason for some concern w/the power outage, the problem is that it’s simply not actionable. I really don’t think you can sit him anywhere and obviously it’d be a terrible decision to cut him. Still on a 45 SB pace so you gotta get those SBs at least. It’s rough but I think we have to eat it right now

Struggling SP Vets: I appreciated your discussion with Justin on Bassitt and Musgrove. You sounded open to cutting, but then sounded much more cautious about that with Nick Pollack. If you had to cut one of the two today, which would it be? Would you base it on how they look today and if either of them turns a corner?

Paul Sporer: Yeah having the convos a day a part was instructive for me bc I really reconsidered how open I was to cutting. I actually plan to mention it on tomorrow’s show, too, since not everyone who listens to Sleeper also listen to the Fireside. I can get behind benching either for a start or two if you really want to, but I think both are doing enough to believe they can work through these early struggles and thus I’d be reluctant to cut

Wenceel Perez: Flash in the pan guy, or is there legit upside, even possibly for shallow leagues?

Guest: Weeeeeeencel or Palacios?

Guest: Do you think Wenceel is for reel?

Jim Leyland Palmer: I want a Wenceel Perez Topps Now card in the show. That is all.

Paul Sporer: Let’s talk some Wenceel! Between him and Richie Palacios, it’s really close and I have a slight lean toward Palacios (perhaps driven by my interest in him coming into the season). They don’t seem all that far apart w/decent hit tools, good speed, and a bit of pop. I realize the Rays aren’t playing super well, but I still lean toward their lineup over Detroit’s so that’s a small edge for Palacios, too.

As for Wenceel himself, he’s really inserted himself into the lineup everyday with a fast start. Decent AVG and some SBs are the more bankable part of his profile so while the 3 HR in 15 gms have been great, I don’t think he stays anywhere near that pace. Wenceel will be a major 15-team pickup this week and has some 12-team viability, too. He’s still kinda fringy in 10 teamers, especially 3 OF setups bc we’ve missed most of the hot streak and I don’t think his cooled down level cuts it in shallower formats

Jonah: Should I be worried about Corey Seager?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a little concern given that he was injured in Spring Training and made it back ahead of schedule so maybe that’s why the power has been slow to come this year. But similar to the Carroll situation, I just don’t think there’s anything actionable here. I’m not sitting him anywhere. Unless we find out he’s injured and playing through something that is sapping the power, the 6% HR/FB should regress and get him back on track

Shota Tatis: Interested to see how Shota adjusts if/when hitters start figuring him out. Where do you stand with Imanaga?

Paul Sporer: Very excited about the fast start, though still wanna see how the HRs look when the league starts to get a better feel for him/the weather heats up

Kool Keith: I know Colt Keith’s underlying numbers, k-rate, etc, point to future skills growth, but can you tell him to get on it already?

Paul Sporer: Will pass on the msg!!

Mike C: Why is Alex Lange being neglected in DET??

Paul Sporer: Just too many BB… 16% rate since last year and that’s gonna create trouble in late-inning situations

Mike C: Tyler Freeman droppable now? That multi position is hard to let go in a 14 team dynasty league

Paul Sporer: Ya know I’d probably hang on in a 14-teamer. Running a 20/20 pace and that .222 BABIP should improve, especially w/how well he’s striking the ball (52% Hard-Hit, 9% Barrel). I’d hang on a bit longer, tbh

Michael King: Am I droppable?

Paul Sporer: I’m torn here, but lean no, even in shallow formats. LAD 2x, at COL, PHI… schedule has eaten him up a bit but the control is definitely an issue. Even if you just give him a pass on the 7 BB for fear that it overly inflates his 13% BB rate, it’s still 10% outside of that with at least 2 BB in all but one of his six appearances. Schedule doesn’t lighten up with at ARI this week and then ANOTHER LAD start next week!!! I can understand a 10-team cut, but keep him on the watchlist and be ready to jump back on if the control tightens up bc there’s still plenty of upside IMO

Robo ump vs Auto Ball/Strike system: Which one do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Wait, aren’t those the same? The robo ump is the ABS system, no?

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat as always. I know Cleveland is an elite offense so far this year, but that was the nail in the coffin for Hunter Brown right? I won’t specify any peripherals – they all look bad. Are you cutting in 12s and lower? 15s even?

Owen: Is there any hope for Hunter Brown to turn things around? This is getting pretty brutal.

Paul Sporer: I want to find the silver lining with him, but it’s just not there and I have very little confidence starting him in shallower formats. We talk a lot on the pod on how you need to ask if a guy deserves a roster spot if they can’t be started in a 2-step. Brown faces that next wk with at NYY/at DET on the docket. I think I can only get there in 15s or deeper and even it’s more of a “I can understand starting him if you have to” as opposed to “start him for sure”. Here were my thoughts after last night:

Guest: Is there any hope for Spencer Torklelson?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he ran a similar script last yr and while there are no guarantees he rebounds like he did last yr, but the plate skills are there, he’s still ripping 2Bs (leads the AL), and I think the HRs will start coming.

Mike: What’s up with the Guardians? How are they looking this good with their current roster?

Paul Sporer: The offense is more than making up for the tattered rotation. I will say, I’m not sure they can hold all year given the rotation issues. The offense can bridge some of the gap, but they need Gavin Williams back and Logan Allen to get on track and at least be a solid mid-4.00s ERA guy

2024 baseballs: Are they juiced, dead, or Goldilocks balls this season?

Paul Sporer: A bit dead relative to last year per Jason Collette’s early studies IIRC

B’ryce Hammer Destroyer of Baseballs: Figures I’d start Ober against the WhiteSox… smh.

Ober: Bad Ober is back

Paul Sporer: Thankfully the White Sox can only do so much. He’s an out away from 5 innings and still has plenty of pitch count to go 6 (and maybe 7 if he’s really good in the 6th).

Paul Sporer: Well he allowed an RBI 2B literally AS I HIT ENTER… so maybe not.

Paul Sporer: It is always SOOO frustrating when one of your better pitchers gives up a dud v. a crappy team, but it happens and we just gotta eat it… especially when it’s divisional, they see those guys a lot

Damomen: Vinnie P’s statcast is a lot of red, but results haven’t been there. Keep or hold in redraft?

Paul Sporer: Easy hold for me still. It’s been 3 distinct waves so far in this short season: .322 OPS through 10 gms, 1.379 during an 11-gm hit streak, and then .210 OPS during the comedown off the hot streak during which he has just 1 hit. I miiiight be open to a benching in shallower leagues, but I’m not cutting him anywhere

Erik: Is Flaherty now someone you are starting against all opponents?  His two-start next week ends against the Astros.

Paul Sporer: He is indeed, yes, especially with a 2-step on the docket. It’s not easy w/at CLE & home v. HOU, but he starts everywhere for me right now. The annoying thing is that his 31% K-BB has yielded ZERO wins and just 1 decision in all (0-1, of course)

Too many pitchers: It wasn’t on purpose, but I ended up with both Albert Suarez and Cole Irvin in my deep AL-only league where middle relievers are not worth having.  I have to drop one tomorrow – which?

Paul Sporer: I think Suarez is the first man out, but truthfully both could be out of the rotation by next wk w/Means & Bradish coming back

B’ryce Hammer Destroyer of Baseballs: Nuts… I missed the queue. Hope this makes it quickly.

In a 10 team h2h points, redraft, is it time to cut Oneal Cruz? Or do we just ride the rollercoaster and start him when he heats up? Currently starting CJ Abrams over him. Just looking for another bench spot without cutting Bregman or Langford.

Paul Sporer: Ctrl-F Cruz to see some early thoughts on him. With your specific situation, if someone HAS to be cut, I would cut Cruz before Lang (Breg has a much longer leash for me so I wouldn’t even consider cutting him at this juncture).

Ronnie Woo Woo: NL 5×5 Leaguer.  Hayden Wesneski is available.  Worth a gamble?

Paul Sporer: Yeah for sure in an NL league. I was a big fan last yr and it just didn’t come together. Not sure it will this year, either, but there’s more than enough potential to take the shot

Ober-reaction: I mean he’s always been homer-prone, and he’s on pace to go 7…

Karl Hungus: Tommy Pham is having a day

Paul Sporer: A better team would probably be rocking him, tbh. It’s really only Pham smoking him right now lol

Eloper: If Loperfido gets full PT in Houston, how deep a league is he an add? OBP vs AVG matter?

Paul Sporer: Definitely jumping on board in 15s. It’s more team-dependent in 12s where I might take the shot if I have an open spot, but wouldn’t necessarily bend over backwards to scoop him.

Trade: What pitchers would you trade Carrol or Judge straight up for in a 12-team redradt?

Paul Sporer: I mean Judge should cost pretty much any top flight SP still. I’d try to get a discount, but I’d pay full market price if the discount just wasn’t there. On Carroll, I don’t hate buying low but w/the shoulder issue & resulting power outage, I’d want a discount

The Bee Guy: I sure was the best reliever that the Dbacks have rolled out all year at yesterday’s game.  Sounds like they may have to now condemn Chase Field for infestation.

Paul Sporer: LOLOL if the Oakland Coliseum can avoid condemnation w/all its issues, this is child’s play for Chase

18thstjoe: is it over 100 degrees in Austin yet?

Paul Sporer: Not yetttt. Staying pretty manageable so far still. Peaking around mid-80s and still dropping into the 60s/50s over night. But soon it’ll be an endless string of 100+ days

Spaceman: Paulie, a big thank you for the chats, Starting Pitcher Charts, The Sleeper…Bust, and all the work you do for us. Love your passion for our sickness! BTW, please explain “W OBA RK” column on your Starting P Charts.

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much for the kind words!! wOBA is weighted On Base Average — a better, more detailed way to credit player’s actions as they relate to their impact instead of just saying a single is the same as a HR like OBP (on base percentage) does. For more: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/

So in the SP chart, the rank is where the pitcher’s opponent ranks in wOBA v. his handedness for the season. In a couple weeks, I will have 2 ranks on the page: their full season rank and the last 30 days. There’s no need to separate season and L30 just yet, though

Frat Damon: MATT. DAMON. BRO.

Paul Sporer: HELL. YES. DUDE.

Erik: Are there morals in fantasy baseball? Someone in my league offered Trout and d’Arnaud for Salvador Perez. Person receiving Trout thinks he’ll only be out a week while reports suggest otherwise. Vote to veto the trade or let the trade happen?

Paul Sporer: As long as they are aware that he’s hurt, they can make their assessments on how long. Now, I’m not sure how they get to a week w/a torn meniscus, but that’s a bit on them. I understand the inclination to protect someone from getting hosed, but we can only go so far with it. That the manager in question knows Trout is hurt is enough for me to let ppl manage how they want even if I don’t agree w/it

Guest: Greene has not actually been giving up that many homers this year I think we need to move away from that narrative.

Paul Sporer: He needs WAY more than 35 IP of a 5% HR/FB to shift that narrative. Even w/the 0.52 HR9 so far this yr, he has a career 1.5 HR9 mark. He is also a heavy FB guy playing in one of the best HR parks in the league, HRs are an ever-present threat

Mitch: Are you sold on Lodolo and Detmers after the 1st month? What is their ceiling on your rankings?

Paul Sporer: Looove Detmers. More of a like with Lodolo bc like Greene, his 24 IP of 5% HR/FB and 0.38 HR9 do not quell the severe HR concerns we have with him. That said, I’m still starting Lodolo consistently in all formats. There isn’t necessarily a ceiling on either’s rank if they continue to pitch well. I feel like Detmers’s upper range is probably a little higher bc of the aforementioned HR issue and dangerous park for Lodeezy, buuttt neither leave the lineup all that often for me. Even w/the tough 2-step that includes BAL this wknd, I was still in on Lodolo

Mike: Who wins this deal in a deep h2h dynasty league. Ben Brown and Royber Salinas for Brandon Pfaadt?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s about “winning” deals. You gotta give to get unless you’re just in a league of less savvy managers that you’re just ripping off, but I don’t really find that fun. So I don’t like the win/loss framing. There can and often is distinctive winners and losers of trades after all the dust settles, but at the time of trade, both teams should be intrigued by what they got and have a little pain related to what they gave. This trade passes that test IMO as you can make the case for both sides pretty easily

Mik: Sell on Buxton before your opponent finds out he may have just hurt himself running….

Paul Sporer: Don’t be scummy. That kinda stuff works once and then you’re the guy no one wants to trade with bc you’re trying to get over on your opponents. Obviously you want to win and to do the best for your team, but if the only way to do that is by ripping ppl off then you’re an undesirable league mate

Sacramento A’s Fan: Is Mitch Keller droppable in a 10-team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I can get behind that. Standard recommendation I’d definitely put him on the watchlist after the cut bc I’d gladly pick him back up if he finds a groove, but there’s too much talent circulating around 10 teamer waiver wires to keep running him IMO

Aaron Nola Fanboy: Hi Paul! In my 10 team dynasty league, I was offered Willy Adames for Michael Busch (before the 2 homer game from Willy). Any thoughts on Busch for the future, and if it would be worth it to move him for Adames?

Paul Sporer: Long-time Michael Busch fan who was glad to see him get the opportunity in Chicago. He’s been great, but I really like this deal. It’s not an egregious sell high or anything bc there’s a world where Busch is a consistent 30 HR type guy for the next 2-3 yrs, but I’ll take the near-30 HR SS in exchange!

Boris: Jo Adell! Sell now, or hold and pray in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I doubt you’re really gonna net much on a sell, so ride it and hope he’s at the beginning of the breakthrough we’ve been waiting on for some time!

seth: for next week, which 2 of these three are you starting: Gil (vHou, @TB), Abbott @SF, KCrawford @ATL. could also throw JHoffman in instead (S+H league)

Paul Sporer: Oooh that is tough. I’ll lock in Gil w/2-step even though it’s not easy. I’m really torn on Abbott v. Kutter. Kutter is the better pitcher but the matchup difference might fully bridge the gap between ’em. Part of me wonders if this is a good bench spot w/Kutter and hope to miss some of his due regression. He’s pitching well and earning plenty of his success, but obviously the 0 HRs allowed won’t last and the 82% LOB rate is due some regression, too. I have a hard time benching guys who are cooking, especially when I saw them as potential breakouts this year, too. That’s probably a form of confirmation bias, though, so I have to be careful. Damn, I’m really agonizing on this one. Push come to shove, I’m taking the talent and going Gil/Kutter

sad league member: Recently a veteran, and somewhat “used car salesman-like” member in my dynasty league picked up Loperfield off the ww (2 weeks ago). To many of our horrors, on Monday he traded him to an expansion/brand new member of our league for Cole Ragans. We don’t believe in vetos, but this one is a potential game changer and very concerning. Talk me off the cliff Mr. Sporer! Is there any scenario that this is a decent trade?

Paul Sporer: Mannn, I’m pretty stridently anti-veto, but this one requires some digging. First things first, I’d just ask the manager who got Loperfido what their thinking was in the deal. Bc truthfully, you can’t even really make a devil’s advocate case for this one even if you’re a huge Loperfido fan. There is a world where he’s a solid fantasy bat, hitting .270 with pop & speed, but that almost doesn’t matter because the simple fact is that you can get SO much more than just Loperfido for Ragans.

Take the temperature of that manager and see what’s what. If it’s straight collusion, ya gotta boot the both of ’em. If it’s just someone getting taken advantage, you probably have to let it ride and then consider not inviting the ripoff artist back next yr. Again, we all want to win, that’s the point of playing, but if I don’t think taking advantage of worse players makes you a savvy or good fantasy player so I have no desire to play w/those types. Don’t be too hasty, but try to get more info about this abomination

Ippei You Back: Someone dropped Detmers in a 12 team cats. Do i cut my 6th OF Chourio/Nimmo/Varsho for him?

Paul Sporer: Presumably start 3 OF league? I’d go for Detmers and between those 3, it’s probably Nimmo. Not that he’s been bad, but I like the upside of Chourio & Varsho more!

David: If the lopsided trade is the case of a bad fantasy player being taken advantage of, that owner is the one that needs to go, not the guy who needs to go, not the one who “took advantage.” I want guys in the league who are trying to win, not inadequate owners.

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to removing the worse manager, too, but I don’t wanna play with people who are actively just trying to rip people off to win. There’s no skill in that. Your point is well taken, though, would rather just merk both. Now I understand it’s not easy to just smoke 2 managers and find replacements. So that doesn’t have to be the go-to, but maybe talk to the ripoff artist and be like hey I understand this is competition and we’re all trying to win, but this is inherently bad for the league and kinda sucks,

And before someone tries to say MLB doesn’t do this if the Rockies get ripped off by LAD or TB or something, I know… but our dumbass fantasy leagues aren’t MLB. Even acknowledging that the Rockies are a terrible FO, the gap between them and the Dodgers FO isn’t anywhere near as large as a shark fantasy player and someone who has little idea what they’re doing. Yes, even in the Rockies case.

Micah: QS League: Would you take Houck or Crochet ROS?

Paul Sporer: Houck for sure… and that’s not just bc of Crochet’s recent bumps. Would’ve preferred Houck even when Crochet was cookin

Jasper: Hey Paul! What’s the best way to interpret expected stats? I.e., my guy Lawrence Butler has a .289 wOBA / .389 xwOBA! Is he gonna breakout, or is there just something broken with his approach?

Paul Sporer: I personally don’t get too hung up on x-Stats, buuuuttt I care about the components that go into them so in the case of Butler, his xwOBA is basically just a shortcut of saying he has a great BB% and low BABIP that should regress bc he’s smoking the ball (12% Barrel, 55% Hard-Hit). Rostering him in deeper leagues, but more of a watchlist type in 12s and shallower… maybe I’ll try to jump on at the first sign that he’s getting hot, perhaps in a week with a ton of righties since he appears to be in a straight platoon. They have 2 lefties in 3 gms this weekend but then just 1 in a 7 gms next week so maybe we scoop this weekend and see if the hits start falling?

Izzy: Why do so many people view Seager’s 2023 as his baseline? Last year was Seager’s best year year. He’s been injured and has had a bunch of good, but not great years.

Paul Sporer: Not sure I’ve seen much of his 2023 being considered the baseline, but also don’t really agree on the good/great year thing. A super weird .242 BABIP kept him from a great 2022 when he stayed healthy for the first time in a while and popped 33 HRs but hit just .245 in 151 gms. Before that, he had a 147 wRC+ in 2020-21 which is undeniably great. The injuries bit in ’21, limiting him to just 95 gms but he was great on a rate basis. He opened with a 135 wRC+ in his first 1413 PA which is a top 20 mark in that time — 17th to be exact (min. 1400 PA). That’s pretty great.

If anything, I’d say 2018-19’s run of 111 wRC+ in 656 PA (just 26 gms in ’18) are the anomaly.  Health is the undeniable negative mark on his ledger, but he does have a lot of great years – if incomplete – that rightfully has many thinking the 2023 isn’t necessarily a one-off spike, at least not in terms of the per PA production. The health may well be… hell, he’s already been hurt this year and might still have some effects of it.

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind taking a guy who’s been 12th in wRC+ over his career (min. 4000 PA) with a 2nd-3rd round pick. His ADP only moved up 16 spots off his 2023 mark. I don’t think 2023 is the baseline expectation for Seager, but another high end season is on the table if he can play 500+ PA again. That last part is always in doubt, the talent is not.

Bosoxual: Is pivetta going to be for real when he comes back? He was cooking at the start and 2H last year

Paul Sporer: That’s always hard to say because we don’t know what sort of residual effects the injury might have. And we don’t know that even if he does struggle that the injury is even to blame. That said, he’s lining up for at ATL upon his return so let’s sit that one out regardless. But at this point, Pivetta is a start v. all but the best of the best right now. A Super Team Streamer (STS) if you will. ATL, LAD, BAL, HOU, trips to NYY/CIN/COL (and maybe not even COL, tbh), would be the sit considerations for an STS. I might even take some shots at home with particular STSs…. but Pivetta in Atlanta fresh off the IL is an easy sit

Elvis the Pelvis: Paul, I’ve done my chores and run my errands, even written some poetry, but you’re still here! Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I am, butttt we’re going to go ahead and cap it here!

quadrangular: At what point do we discuss Josh Naylor’s gradual transformation into Vlad Senior (AKA the good Vlad)? Dude looks really good, I admit I didn’t see this power coming

Paul Sporer: I’m super in on Naylor as a superstar. Health is the biggest hurdle, but the fantasy superstar skills are there, especially if he’s allowed to keep running and can churn out 12-15 SBs across 500+ PA.

Paul Sporer: Y’all really killed it with the queue, thanks so much! I will have my boxscore morning show both tomorrow and Friday on Twitch — https://twitch.tv/sporer — starting at 8 AM CT tomorrow and then around 10:30 AM CT (I say around bc it’s after the podcast which doesn’t have a set end time) on Friday. You can definitely come ask your fantasy questions there. We just hang out and check the last night’s boxscores while tangenting on all sorts of great baseball and sometimes non-baseball-related topics! So come on by if you’re free. Thanks so much for coming out. New SP ranking coming soon!

Biscuit: Is there such a thing as too much buying low?

Paul Sporer: Yes, because they might not all rebound

Paul Sporer: Maybe just a couple cases you really believe in, don’t invest on the concept

Paul Sporer: OK, bye for real now!