Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 9th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, welcome to my chat!!

Scotty: Codi Heuer goes down with TJS… pushing up Rowan Wick at all?

Paul Sporer: It secures him a bit more. I had Wick as the guy coming in, but was keeping tabs on Heuer.

Kyle: Traded my Bryce for his Mookie in a 15 team 5×5. How worried should I be about Moookie’s hip?

Paul Sporer: It’s not 0% concern, but I’m not terribly worried about it and have been drafting Betts this season

Greg: Bregman or Albies in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Albies for sure, but I will point out that I’m in on a Bregman rebound

Guest: Tyler Alexander DET SP had 4-5 great starts to close the 2021 season. Why no preseason love?

Paul Sporer: 27 yr old soft-tosser w/a home run issue. Might offer some AL Only value, but not much else

FTLT: What does a shift ban do for Gallo’s value?

Paul Sporer: He has hit .136 on pulled GBs in 236 PA since ’17. It’s probably a safe bet that he will hit better than that on those batted balls this year w/no shift, but I don’t think it automatically makes him a .250+ hitter or anything (unless his BABIP hits a crazy spike, but that happened in a shift year before, too)

Dave: Based on what’s been publicized so far– do you think the new CBA impacts the arrival time of Tork or Greene at all?

Paul Sporer: Can’t recall seeing much that would change the fate of minor lg’ers for ’22

Greg: 12-team keep forever points league – would you keep Kiriloff, Andrew Vaughn or Riley Greene?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s tough. I’m nervous about Kirilloff’s wrist, Greene hasn’t debut, and Vaughn was just OK in his debut. That said, I haven’t changed my future outlook on Vaughn so I’m gonna actually pick him in this group. He was learning a new position as a rookie and that was tough. Even still, he showed flashes of the high end capability his prospect status suggested. I don’t actually see a wrong answer here, but I’d go Vaughn, Greene, Kiri

Pat Listachio: Why do players not have moustaches anymore. Talk me off my ledge Paul.

Paul Sporer: lol I’m not sure, they’re more rare as they seemed to be of an 80s and 90s thing and these days it seems when someone does have one, they get showcased for it

Greg: Will there be player profiles added to the player pages this year? I don’t think I’ve seen any since 2020 but it was a long standing tradition at Fangraphs.

Paul Sporer: We will not have them this year. I’m not sure if there are plans to bring them back in the future.

PB&Js: If a deal is struck today, how long do you anticipate until FA signings occur? Minutes later, hours? Wait a day or two for “propriety”?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t be surprised if deals came in hours after a deal is reached

Mike: Interested to see you’re in on a Bregman rebound. Can you expand on why? I’m a concerned dynasty owner.

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-case-for-alex-bregman/

Paul Sporer: (it’s primarily a health bet)

Bob: How do you think the shift-less infields will impact pitching stats?

Paul Sporer: Minimally. In the end, the shift can have a big impact on a particular player in a given year, but the overall impact isn’t alll that high

MJR: When do you anticipate updating your SP rankings. (I realize you’ve had nothing to work with of late!)

Paul Sporer: I’m working on the comments version right now and I’ll post them once they are finished even if it’s “out of order” from the normal C-1B-2B-SS, etc… I could see them being done before OF, but those pieces can take a while because while the comments are just a sentence, I dig into every profile to try & find a good tidbit (sometimes there isn’t much)

Ian: I know you have pitching rankings, but since they’re 2+ months old, any change in how you’d rank Montas, Manoah, McClanahan?

Paul Sporer: I have Montas 22, Manoah 32, and McClanahan 25 in my live rankings. We do have a Patreon where our live rankings are available at all tiers if you want to support the pod and get access to the rankings before they are published, but all the rankings will be out by next week regardless. https://www.patreon.com/TheSleeperandtheBust

Paddy: How do you handle inflation in dynasty leagues and whether it is worth it to “overpay” to keep a player?

Paul Sporer: I calculate the inflation so I see how the salary stacks up and then make the choice that way. The inflation rate isn’t my exact cut off or anything if I like the player enough, but I obviously don’t want to be paying 20% more ON TOP of inflation or anything

Ben: Are you in on either Kiriloff or Andrew Vaughn as a post-hype guy?

Paul Sporer: Both, tbh! Again, I have some concerns about Kirilloff’s wrist until we see on the field again, but I’m still buying in and I loove Vaughn!

Scottie W. A.: Under-the-radar SP arms in AL Only? Looking for some guys not currently slotted in rotations that could make some starts later on in the summer. In a QS league

Paul Sporer: Cody Morris CLE, Daniel Lynch & Jackson Kowar KC, Glenn Otto & Cole Winn TEX, Reid Detmers LAA, Daulton Jefferies OAK

Paul Sporer: QS could be tough for any rookie, but those are some fun summer arms for me

Dave: 12-team mixed, keep-5 OPS league… for my last two spots, I’m picking two of: Bregman, Bellinger, Julio Rodriguez, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon (all at roughly the same price)… I know you usually lean hitter (as do I), but… any thoughts here?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think you can go Julio Rodriguez w/four much more established guys available. I’d go Bregman and Belly, tbh.

Salty: If comparing MLB to the stock market, I’d consider “buying low” on the Tigers, thinking they should see some very strong growth over the next few years.  Any thoughts on a team you would “sell high”?  I was thinking maybe the Dodgers, but their farm system is so loaded they may not suffer too much of a dropoff.

Paul Sporer: Tigers definitely have that green arrow next to ’em so you probably couldn’t get them SUPER low these days. I wonder if the Braves might be the sell high. Kinda obvious as they just won, but they likely aren’t bringing Freef back, aren’t exactly youth-loaded (though have some excellent cornerstone youth in Acuña, Albies, and Riley on offense), and are low in farm system rankings

PJ322: The chance of a deal happening today is 100% HOPELESS #reversejinx

Paul Sporer: Love it!

Bob: Paul, do you think Willson Contreras will get many DH opportunities when he’s not catching now that NL is going to go with designated hitter?

Paul Sporer: Gomes is a legit backup so I could see Contreras getting burn in LF and DH to make sure Gomes is playing w/some regularity and that could bring Contreras to the 500 PA threshold

Bob: Hey Paul, are you okay? Response time to questions seems to be slow or is it my computer?

Paul Sporer: I am OK, sometimes I take time to look something up for an answer. Sometimes that research goes nowhere so I spend 2-3 mins doing it and then don’t have anything to really add to the answer, but I like to be thorough

Dave: Hey man, where you been going for 3B? Seems JRam’s dollar value in the auction calculator does not justify his draft choice, Machado does not run, and after that, boy it is ugly.

Paul Sporer: I’d gladly take J Ram in the top 4-5 of the draft but I haven’t really had picks that high so then it gets kinda dicey. I’m in on a Bregman rebound but from there I eye some from a cluster of Hayes, Urias, Moncada, Suarez, Chapman, JD, Candy, and Moose

Simon: Better strategy to bet on young arm with upside or older established arms? Ceiling or floor question…

Paul Sporer: Yeah it’s hard to give a universal answer bc league context matters a lot, too. What is the replacement value on the wire? In general, I like to shoot for the moon with some pitchers, but obviously not my entire staff

Philip: Why aren’t people higher on MJ Melendez?  He did something incredible last year at AAA as a 22-year-old.  Thanks, Paul!

Paul Sporer: Sal’s presence is a big one (despite their announcement that MJ would play other positions to get him to the majors), but also just a lack of knowledge about him. Heck, I’m a huge baseball nerd and his insanity escaped my radar. I knew the name and knew he was a rising prospect, but until Justin put me on, I didn’t know he popped 41 HOMERS at AA/AAA last year! If ST was going on right now and he was getting regular ABs and there was more talk about the 41 HRs, his price would be rising. Until then, take advantage!

Fred: Does anyone except opponents and umpires dislike showboating? It makes sports so much better

Paul Sporer: Old clowns on social media, lol. It’s always the same tired shit every time, too, about respecting the game blah blah blah. No one is disrespecting the game and there is a line to it, like don’t get in your opponents face for no reason, but celebrating w/YOUR teammates is UNQUESTIONABLY awesome for the game. That includes bat tosses and even planned out cellys at home plate for a walkoff (like Prince’s explosion one years ago). I just can’t get my head around that sort of stuff being a problem

Paul Sporer: Again, it crosses a line when it’s taunting the opposition, but a celebration isn’t inherently taunting. Pitchers get way too deep in their feelings sometimes and that includes legends like Bob Gibson. Throwing at someone for enjoying success off you isn’t tough in the slightest so I always found it weird that that attitude was propped up from guys like Gibby. Love Gibby (obv never saw him play, but read tons and my dad regaled me w/many tales of him & others from the 60s), but always found that throw at em if they celebrate shit to be Charmin soft.

Henry: Am I wrong to continue believing in Luzardo?

Paul Sporer: No not at all. I’m not super in, but I also can’t go all Law & Order and say he’s done-done. Still a remarkably live arm from the left side who is just 24 yrs old. If he bounced back in a big way THIS year, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least

Tigers?: Are you out on Haase? What about that sweet C eligibility?

Paul Sporer: I kinda am, yeah, bc I just don’t see the supplemental OF playing time. I’m not sure he gets another 381 PA and even if he does, I’d be surprised if he posted a triple-digit wRC+. If he falls into regular PT in-season, I can understand the interest as a C2, but I’m not drafting him this winter

Bob: Your thoroughness is greatly appreciated. Thanks from all of us Paul Sporer lovers.

Paul Sporer: No problem! I appreciate you asking the Q bc I know sometimes the answers take a long time and I always try to let y’all know if it’s a phone call or taking the dogs out, but absent that, it’s just me researching something!

Big Joey: Wander, Devers and Tucker. Please rank if you could “keep-forever”, league also counts OBP and SLG

Paul Sporer: Holy smokes that is tough to find much separation!! I’ll give Tucker a slight edge over Devers w/his SBs and similar hitting profiles. The question is do we go w/Wander #1 off the top and bet on the come (I think Tucker & Devers will out-earn him in ’22), hoping that he surpasses them next year and beyond. Plus he has the age edge. I tend to play for the here & now, so I’ll slot ’em ahead of Wander and have him 3rd. There is absolutely no wrong answer, but my pick is Tucker, Devers, Franco

439 Roanoke: AL Only Keeper league question: Any sneaky prospect bats that you could see pushing 300-400 PA’s this year? Trying to snag a few young & cheap pieces to accelerate a rebuild.

Paul Sporer: How sneaky is Steven Kwan at this pt? Probably not that sneaky since he’s going in deep mixers. Same probably goes for Josh Lowe (love him even more but his profile is higher than Kwan’s, tbh). So moving lower in the prospect world, let’s say Jose Miranda was 85th on top 100 and appears blocked in Minnesota, but if something opens, he’s very intriguing. Less prospecty, but still interesting to me are Josh Naylor returning from injury in Cleveland and Derek Hill vying for time in Detroit’s OF

Erik: Are you buying a repeat of Walker Buehler’s 2.47 ERA despite the ERA estimators calling it a huge overachievement? I can’t see any other case for putting him second despite having a K% lower than nearly every other top-20 SP unless you think he’s a peripheral beater.

Paul Sporer: I almost never call for a repeat of a 2.47 outside of like peak Pedro, Johan, JV, Kersh, and deGrom (and maybe another name or 3 that I can’t remember from my fantasy “career”… been playing since the mid-90s). That said, I understand your concerns but he has consistently beaten the ERA indicators and while he isn’t dropping a 30% K rate, he does a great job limiting walks and hard contact so his K-BB% since 2018 is still tied for 7th-best (after rounding… I don’t find 21.8% v. 22.2% to be useful, that extra precision doesn’t offer anything, they’re both 22%). So he slots 17th, but after rounding & ties, it’s tied 7th highest (min. 300 IP).

Meanwhile his .202 AVG is 7th on its own and I don’t think that’s a fluke  – https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=3…

Dary: Injury aside, does McCullers have another level he can reach? Has always been inefficient, is it realistic to think his control can improve?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but it requires that health to come through. Love his talent, though

Guest: I am high on O’Neil Cruz-am offering Josh Rojas and Colton Welker in a trade.  What do you think?

DERALD: Not sure if you got my question-Basically Josh Rojas or Colton Welker?

Paul Sporer: Different names of the chatter, but are these related? if it’s 1 of Rojas or Welker for Cruz, I’d give my trade partner their pick, though I’d prefer to keep Rojas personally. If it’s for both, I’m still open to doing it, especially since you’re high on Cruz.

Jacob: I’m doing my first best ball in a few weeks, how should my strategy differ from redraft? Substantially?

Paul Sporer: Yes, much different! First off, favor hitting and favor it a lotttt! With the best ball setup, you can take a lot more volatile pitching bc a lot of their bad starts will wind up on your bench. I’d elevate Cs if it’s a 2-catcher format, too. They always go much higher in Razzslam which uses the best ball format at NFBC. Just for quick reference, here are my top 15 picks in Razzslam (which uses NFBC’s cutline format) —

1 Tucker, Kyle OF
2 Albies, Ozzie 2B
3 Realmuto, J.T. C
4 Goldschmidt, Paul 1B
5 Martinez, J.D. OF
6 Haniger, Mitch OF
7 Cronenworth, Jake CI
8 Musgrove, Joe P
9 Taylor, Chris SS
10 Montas, Frankie P
11 Hoskins, Rhys CI
12 Moncada, Yoan 3B
13 McClanahan, Shane P
14 Valdez, Framber P
15 Benintendi, Andrew OF

PJ322: Looking more like we’ve been Nightengale’d again bro

Paul Sporer: Glad I didn’t get too high this time

Paul Sporer: I haven’t checked Twitter since chat started, what’s the latest?

SH: Peralta or Montas in a head-to-head points league for the next two years? Why?

Paul Sporer: I think Montas is built to pack on the innings a bit better over the years than Peralta so I’d lean him in a multi-year consideration. I have Peralta 19 v. Montas 22 for this year only which is essentially a coinflip, but once we start looking over multiple yrs, gimme the guy w/the deeper arsenal and body that seems better built to take the year-in, year-out wear & tear (obviously nothing guarantees health, but size can certainly play a role)

PJ322: via MLBTR: SNY’s Andy Martino adds that ownership has become pessimistic after the union yet again rejected the notion of an international draft, which the league has sought to exchange for the elimination of draft compensation

Paul Sporer: Dang

Paul Sporer: Drafts in general aren’t great bc you are taking away choice for players, but I wonder if there’s a way to implement an int’l draft that doesn’t completely suck shit

Paddy: How do you think the Rays lineup shakes out? Would being traded away from the Rays boost the value of guys like Meadows, Margot, or Yandy?

Paul Sporer: It would still depend on the tm bc there are plenty of other tms that would be cautious about letting Meadows get regular burn vL, too. I could see Margot landing a full-time role somewhere else, though, bc he’s a true CF. Yandy could go somewhere that gives him a shot vR more than TB, but he still just doesn’t lift the ball enough to take advantage of the raw power he has. I still see think KK is dealt after the lockout, which could help Margot most as well as one of Brujan/Josh Lowe

PB&Js: I haven’t heard anything about Aristides Aquino this year and his ADP is in the pits. With the DH coming, is he as super sneaky 25 HR 7SB guy, with room for more?

Paul Sporer: Not sure the DH opens things up for him that much, though, bc of their crowded IF (think Moose benefits most from DH). Naquin and Friedl aren’t untouchable in the OF so I hear you re: Aquino as a Draft Champions late rounder, but my expectations are tempered

Bob: Look into your crystal ball. Do you foresee rebounds for Rendon, Bellinger, LeMahieu? Thank you, Paul.

Paul Sporer: I have some optimism about all 3. Rendon rakes when healthy so I’ll take a shot on him rebounding. DJLM won’t get all the pop back even if healthy, but I see an AVG rebound for sure. I’m probably most skeptical about Belly’s shoulder, but I have found the discount fair enough to take the shot

Jimi: Betting on a Lindor bounce back?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes. Could definitely see this season being in the vein of Beltran’s first yr in NY. I could see upper-20s HR with 14-17 SBs plus a substantial rebound in AVG

FancyGraphs: Paul, Generic ranking question: are your rankings more ‘where I think they will end the year’ or ‘what order I would draft them’ (team construction not withstanding); or a combination of both?

Paul Sporer: Justin and I have had discussions about this on the pod and we’ve both moved toward them being more of a draft list. And bc of team construction, it can never be a STRAIGHT up 1-to-whatever draft list as I know I’ll bounce around as I’m building a squad, but I don’t rank someone to match or be near ADP if I don’t believe in them being there and wouldn’t consider taking them there.

Ben: Can you tell me something nice about Yelich? I just paid a lot for him in an auction and now I am very nervous…

Paul Sporer: Still had solid plate skills, still just 30 y/o, and while he likely won’t get back to his mid-30s HR/FB of 2018-20, he has a good chance to get into the 20s if he does regain health

Jimi: Hi Paul, do you think Aaron Ashby gets a starting gig out of the gate this year? What are your thoughts on him relative to other young starters (eg, Manoah, McClanahan, Rogers, etc)? Thanks again for your expertise.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he does from day 1 barring injury to someone. Lauer and Houser did enough to keep their spots to at least start season. However, no team uses just 5 SPs all year these days so he will get a shot at some pt. I love the arm and could definitely see him wrestling the role away from Houser (espec. if Houser’s 7% K-BB doesn’t greatly improve).

Ashby has legit swing & miss stuff while his command & control aren’t so far off that he can’t find success in a consistent SP role. While I obviously want him starting more than not, I like that his backup plan is as a multi-inning RP w/great ratios & tons of Ks.. .and perhaps some sneaky Ws. Worst case is he’s not ready and gets sent out but then he’s a cut in most redraft formats until later in the year if/when he returns. He could certainly breakout immediately and pitch like the 3 guys you mention, though that needn’t be the expectation at his draft price!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, sorry for the late start, but I went long to cover it! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there.

I’ve been playing Out of the Park Baseball and we started a franchise w/the Tigers in 1992 to try & change the fate of their 90s and early-00s blight. It’s been a blast remembering sooo many players from that era! Pedro fanned 456!!! batters in 2001!  (https://twitch.tv/sporer if you’re interested!) Have a good one, y’all!