Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 4th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Yo, Lertz: Seeing a couple of big bold predictions for Rafaela from your colleagues this season. Do you also think he takes another step forward with the bat?

Paul Sporer: Aww you only read their BPs? I even used his picture for mine!!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2026-bold-predictions/

First pick: 6×6 ops league. Judge or ohtani who ya got for pick 1?

Paul Sporer: I’m an Ohtani at 1 type of guy, but I don’t think it’s *wrong* to prefer Judge

Ceddanne’s Agent: You and Zimmerman both on the Ceddanne train!  Feels bankable — you’re a dreamer and Jeff’s stone cold, and you still arrive at the same spot.  Love it.

Paul Sporer: I won’t lie, it did feel nice to see Jeff include him given how our approaches differ as you highlight. I was even happier that he had some Ryan McMahon love, who I’ve been drafting regularly and someone I did have a BP for but it hit the cutting room floor (I usually gather 15-20 names and then pare down).

Hader vs Abreu: Given Josh Hader’s long history of injuries, will Bryan Abreu get more saves than him this year?

Paul Sporer: Hader’s had some bumps & bruises, but been pretty reliable w/5 straight seasons of 50+ IP but only north of 60 (so he usually misses a little time but nothing too crazy). With this biceps issue, he might just miss his time out front. He’s not off my board, espec. as the discount grows, but I’m very open to handcuffing Abreu with him to protect my investment. I also don’t mind just taking Abreu as a third closer even if I don’t have Hader

Ryan: Does McGonigle start the year in the bigs? What’s a realistic expectation for him as far as results?

Paul Sporer: He’s inching toward it more and more each day it seems. I’m not going to aggressively predict it for someone with 0 AAA experience under their belt, but it’s not impossible to skip. I’ve been banging the “no AAA!” issue for Griffin more at age-19 than someone like McG even just a year older but w/2x the experience at AA. There is no major impediment for either mega prospect hence the hype machine exploding for them, but I’m far more interested in McG than Griffin at their current prices. A realistic result would be something like – .266-17-81-72-8 in 600 PA if he breaks camp as he’d still be learning on the job a bit and I doubt he’d just be amazing from day 1

bosox9834: Hi Paul, keeper question in auction league 6×6 10 team Roto including TB. Would you keep Acuna at $29 or JRod at $27.

Paul Sporer: The lower prices and healthier knees push me to JRod

Auctions are the best: Thanks to you & Fangraphs teams for all the content & insight.

Paul Sporer: You’re very welcome, thanks for the kind words!

TW: Is Schwellenbach draftable as a flier in late rounds? I’m in a 20-team draft and it’s round 22…

Paul Sporer: If you’ve got IL spots and it’s that late in a draft that deep, sure, take the $1 lotto scratcher and hope he comes back healthy to give ya some innings! I’ve seen far worse picks in rd 22 of a 20-teamer

Ippa Switch: How do you see Alonso faring in his new park?  Do you think the value is there at cost versus someone like Pasquatino who provides a lot of the same categories at a fraction of the price?

Paul Sporer: He’s got everywhere power and with the adjustment back in for the Baltimore Wall, I’m not too concerned him Alonso to BAL. It’s not like Citi was a hitter’s haven, so he should be good to go!

When comparing him with someone like Vinnie P, I really think it’s about the certainty of the production that you’re paying for with Alonso at ~25 ADP v. Vinnie P at ~75. Alonso has 34+ HR in every single full season of his career, thrice at 40+; Vinnie P ripped 32 last yr for a career high and they moved the fences in a little to help him repeat. If you want to take the discount to bet that Vinnie P repeats, I get it, but Alonso is a FAR stronger bet to hit 30 next year if you had to pick one for your life.

Guest: Any concerns with Yelich?

Paul Sporer: Ever-present back/injury concerns and then a small ding for UT-only (doesn’t bother me when the player’s good enough, though), though both of those are considered in the price point (~130 ADP)

KC Pain: Is there a dark horse in the back of the Brewers rotation who had a shot? Hall, Gasser, Harrison? Or are they more injury/emergency fill in?

Paul Sporer: Big fan of Milwaukee arms. Was touting Quinn Priester a good bit coming into draft season, but now that he’s being slow-rolled with a wrist, I’ve turned my attention to Gasser/Henderson/Harrison/Sproat. Recent reports have Woodruff being ready by OD, let’s assume that’s true for now. That leaves 2 spots for those 4 and I lean Henderson/Gasser.

Yo, Lertz: You know, you’re completely right.i *had* seen your BP for Rafaela, but then in my memory I reassigned it to Jordan for some reason. Whoops!

Paul Sporer: No prob at all, was def just teasin ya a bit!

FISH: How do you really feel about Waxman?

Paul Sporer: 👀

Insert Witty Name Here: In one of Zimmermann’s articles (maybe his BP?) I believe he mentioned that McLean is going to be a WHIP killer and that is overlooked too often.  Do you agree and what other star pitchers do you think would have that label?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s right to preach some caution on McLean. I think he’s being treated as an unquestioned stud already, but Jeff rightly highlights some control concern that I’m just not seeing be discussed. McLean had a passable 9% BB in the majors but  it came with 95 Location+ and he was at 11% BB in the minors before that. He’s really good and has major upside, but his downside is being glossed over by many

McGonigle Meth: I’m high as a kite.   Dude is breaking camp and top-20 next year.

Paul Sporer: Bello with 2 Ks on him change you opinion???? jk jk — simple fact is McKinstry/Baez really shouldn’t be blocking him off if the org deem McGonigle ready

Fant’sy Feast: Hey Paul, projections are pretty split on Brandon Woodruff with The Bat X having him as SP49 with my auction calculator and ATC as SP21. Where do you fall? Is it just gambling on health? In a 5×5 roto, would you keep him over Eury?

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s a pure health play, IMO. I still believe in the talent, but the innings are a tough to figure out wildcard. In a case like that, you commit to a number you’re comfortable with and decide if you’re willing to draft him w/the risk. I originally came in hot, but tamped him down in my next SP update that’ll be out by Friday

Bobby: Is Pepiot about to become an ace?

Paul Sporer: I certainly think he can be, yes. Moving back to the Trop gives his home games some extra cushion and even a small development step forward would be enough to really pop off this year

Doc Metal: What is your assessment of C.Condon? Average, above average, possible star?

Paul Sporer: Feels a bit forgotten/underrated. Likely won’t break camp, but I can’t envision the 23 yr old needing a ton of time in the minors this year. Solid plate skills and enough talent to be dangerous in the best park around. I’m not sure McCarthy or Beck are better than him, either.

Lastings Milledge: What are your thoughts on Justin Crawford?

Lastings Milledge: fyi its not really Lastings, just wanted to give you a high five

Paul Sporer: lolol thanks! Crawford has a great shot to win the CF job out of camp and follow in the footsteps of his dad, Carl. He’s a pure burner like pops with strong contact and low-impact pop. While I’m generally averse to drafting rabbits overall (SB-only types), I’d much rather go for Crawford at 270 than Chandler Simpson at 190. It’s usually the overpricing of the rabbits that bothers me and Crawford hasn’t reached that point since he’s not yet locked into a spot

C: Many many thanks to you & Justin & Joe for the pre-season ranking podcasts – part of my daily commute in Chicago on the L (to paint a pic of the scene ha).

SBs aside, it seems like Vlad Jr. is perpetually a top 5 batter in projection systems, but discounted in drafts… is it crazy to think he could get back to 35 HRs with that .300 average? He seems infinitely safer an asset compared to Cal (Catcher innings catch up), Kurtz (youngling), and maybe even Schwarber with his batting average floor at cost. I also put him above Lindor & Caminero… What do you think?

Paul Sporer: I’m glad you’re enjoying them! I love preview season so much! And no, you’re not off on Vlad Jr. at all. Despite being all of 27 yrs old, he’s pretty much already in the boring “old” man phase of his fantasy career where he’s just kinda ho-hum drafted in the 15-20 pick range without much fanfare as if he hasn’t been consistently excellent for 5 yrs.

Even if we lop off the magic 2021 when he ripped 48 HRs, he’s averaged 28 per season since so he wouldn’t need some skill transformation to run into 7-8 more next year. You draft him for the bankable elite AVG while also getting a guy with the upside to go .320-40 in any given season. Each has only happened once, but both happening together is in his range of outcomes.

Beano: Chances of TJ Rumfield getting the 1b gig in Colorado?
Abimelic Ortiz in Washington?

Paul Sporer: 2-4% for Rumfield as he’s not on the 40-man and blocked by guys who do the same stuff he can; closer to 35-40% for Ortiz, though.

He’s on the 40, was traded for in the Gore deal, and has a more dynamic profile than Chapparo. Question is, do they want to move Garcia Jr. off of 2B and over to 1B to get Nunez/Abrams up the middle? Their best team has Nunez at 2B, Ortiz at 1B.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Remember, got an SP update coming before the weekend and you can check out my Bold Predictions right here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2026-bold-predictions