Paul Sporer’s 2026 Bold Predictions

I’ve got 10 coming with one per position at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, RP plus two at both OF and SP. While the first one will be catcher, we’re not going around the horn in that order, rather we’ll get spicier as we go through these in a Hot Ones-esque sort of way. You may have a different spice meter and I’m happy to hear if you think I have one firmly out of place.

C: Will Smith is the #1 Catcher on the Player Rater

How He Gets There: Mostly just by being himself. His career high 153 wRC+ last year came in just 110 games which relegated him to C7. His .345 BABIP seems ripe for regression against a .285 career mark, but he hit the ball much better last year to fuel that surge. It wasn’t just a bunch of bleeders and doinkers driving some extra hits in a sub-500 PA sample. I see him holding at least some of those gains while returning to the >500 PA plateau and easily paying off that C9 pricepoint. The competition is a bigger hurdle for this one than Smith’s skill but that’s also why it’s my opening salvo. They’ll get spicier!

Full Line: .285 AVG-25 HR-78 RBI-84 R-1 SB

SS: Nasim Nuñez Steals 40 Bases

How He Gets There: Nuñez doesn’t have an Opening Day role locked in yet and he’s not going to usurp CJ Abrams at SS so 2B is the path and I just don’t believe Luis García Jr. is a real impediment. Nuñez showed out in a 39-game sample (4 HR/9 SB in 92 PA), shifting between SS (19 gms) and 2B (13) while Garcia Jr. posted a 91 wRC+. Plus, Nuñez’s glove is way better. Nuñez has led off during his spring games, but never with Abrams so it’s not the A-lineup [Note: On March 2, theday before this list went live, the Nats put out a lineup featuring the Nuñez/Abrams duo at the top!] The beauty with burners is they don’t need a full season to put up excellent SB numbers. He ran a crazy 24% HR/FB to hit 4 HR and that won’t hold, but with his speed (98th percentile) and 50% GB rate that .232 AVG/.254 BABIP combo seems ripe for a big improvement.

Full Line: .272-7-53-48-43

2B: Ceddanne Rafaela Puts Up a 20 HR/50 SB Season

How He Gets There: A baby step last year gives way to a leap this year as he taps into some power which fuels an OBP surge that allows him run wild on the bases. He’s not one of these speedsters who lives on the ground; he knows how to lift but now needs to start pulling it. This prediction isn’t born out of his early spring dominance, either, his 2B/OF drew my interest in fall drafts and the more I looked into him, the more I feel there’s real upside as fantasy superstar. I don’t mind that he’s cooking in Spring Training, but that would never drive my choice for a prediction.

Full Line: .288-22-91-78-51

SP: Eury Pérez Strikes Out 200 Batters

How He Gets There: This is essentially a call on his health because talent-wise, he’s ready to strikeoutmaxx and fully ascend. Outside of some natural post-TJ hiccups, he looked a lot like the stud we saw in 2023. His STF+ was up seven points from 2023 to 118 and 2nd to only Hunter Greene’s 124 (min. 90 IP). His 94 LOC+ was down four points and reared its ugly head during five 3+ BB outings and yet he still matched his 8% BB from 2023. That suggests to me it was just bouts of command inconsistency which is part of coming back from TJ and after working out the kinks in a 20-start run last year, he’s now poised for a full-scale breakout season, highlighted by a big strikeout total.

Full Line: 211-3.22-1.04-12

1B: Miguel Vargas is a Top 10 First Baseman on the Player Rater

How He Gets There: Vargas finally got an uninterrupted large sample and played well enough with a 101 wRC+ and 16 HRs in 569 PA. I still see more in the tank. He knows the zone well (0.44 BB/K) so the next step is start pulling his flyballs to transition from 2B-to-HR power. He’s one of 10 guys with a 50%+ FB rate the last three seasons but his 16 HRs are far and away the worst of the group (avg: 37) because of his group-low 43% Pull rate. I’ll be monitoring his spring numbers to see if he starts pulling it more because the HRs will follow if so. A soft factor that will help is expected improvement of the lineup around him, creating more consistent R/RBI opportunities.

Full Line: .254-31-86-74-7

OF: Colton Cowser Puts Up a 35 HR/25 SB Season

How He Gets There: Grinding through an injury-addled season (fracture thumb and ribs, concussion), Cowser had 16 HR/14 SB/.199 AVG/83 wRC+ in 360 PA last year. Despite the struggles, he was a full-time player whenever healthy thanks to a strong glove and loud skills (.190 ISO, 14-for-14 SB). Staying upright is the key here. He’ll need some skill improvement to reach the heights I have here, but health alone will move his baseline up substantially. With his power and batted ball profile, I see upward mobility in that .262 BABIP, too. His 14-for-14 effort on the bases last year and 85% career success rate have me in confident in an easy 20 as he pushes that OBP back up.

Full Line: .258-37-83-79-26

RP: Griffin Jax Logs 20+ SVs for Tampa Bay

How He Gets There: Kevin Cash’s love of closer committees is overstated in the fantasy community. He will use them in the absence of a truly standout option, but he usually has an identifiable A-guy. There are only two years in his career where the Rays didn’t have a 20 SV guy, one of which was 2021 when Diego Castillo got 14 SVs before getting moved at the deadline. The other was 2022, the only true committee season: 5 guys got at least 5 with Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks tied for the team-high at 8. Fairbanks has logged 25, 23, and 27 SVs the last three seasons. I know I’m spending a lot of time on Cash but that’s because Jax’s skills aren’t in question: 5th K-BB (29%) and tied for 2nd SIERA (2.22) since 2024. Edwin Uceta’s shoulder impingement opens the door for Jax to slide into that A-role and I think he runs with it.

Full Line: 23 SVs-2.75 ERA-1.00 WHIP-100 Ks in 70 IP

OF: Jeff McNeil Returns to the .300 Level

How He Gets There: Sacramento serves as a fountain of youth for McNeil. Once a reliable AVG asset, he’s suffered through a .255 BABIP the last two years which has held his AVG to just .241 in 934 PA. Even with that, he’s still a career .305 BABIP but we are four years removed from a .300+ mark (.353 in 2022). It all comes back in 2026! I don’t have a bevy of statistics supporting this one, I’m just buying into a historical track record and fun new park.

Full Line: .306-16-72-66-3

SP: Taj Bradley is a Top 25 Starting Pitcher on the Player Rater

How He Gets There: This is a good pitcher! Coming into last year, he had 27% K and 19% K-BB rates, good for 14th and 27th among 86 pitchers (min. 240 IP) but his 1.7 HR9 saddled him with a 4.75 ERA (compared to a 3.75 SIERA). Uneven skills in 111 IP with Tampa Bay (lower K-BB, but also fewer HRs) came unglued after his trade to Minnesota as skills rebounded (15%) but brought back the homers (1.7), too. I never really hold a post-trade performance against a guy. Bradley throws 97 mph, has a 5-pitch arsenal that gives him four pitches to use against each side. He eschewed the WBC to stay with his still relatively new team and connect more with new manager Derek Shelton and new catcher Victor Caratini (who will share time with Ryan Jeffers), which doesn’t guarantee success but is likely the right move for his development. I think he finds a HR fix this year and pops off!

Full Line: 3.18-1.13-185-10

3B: Royce Lew—NO!!! Stop it! … TOR Gets 70 HRs from their Kazuma Okamoto/Addison Barger combo

How They Get There: Barger still has 3B eligibility for fantasy purposes and will play RF. His raw but explosive power was on display in a platform season (21 HR, 107 wRC+ in 502 PA) and a step in development can take him up a level to full-on star. He has the deep red StatCast power profile we like to drool over with standout EV, HH, and Bat Speed metrics, but the key to that next level will be improving his plate approach, which is fully blue. His 14% BB% in 746 PA at Triple-A is double what we saw in the majors last year and he had an 11% in 1903 MiLB PA. Just give us a 9-10% mark and that improved decision-making can hopefully raise the floor on his cold streaks and make him a force in the lineup ready to drop a mid-30s HR total. He could also just be this year’s Jo Adell (0.22 BB/K, 37 HRs last year) which would work, too!

Okamoto is coming over from the NPB with a prestigious power track record. He is second only to Munetaka Murakami in homers since 2019 with 214. Unlike Barger, he does so with strong plate skills that he’s been honing the last few seasons. He brought his K% down 8 pts from 2023 to 2025 (11%) and putting up an identical 11% BB% with it. His .271 ISO and 1.0 BB/K likely won’t fully translate without any degradation, but I took his projections (.210, 0.5) and looked at seasons in that range (.200-.220 ISO, 0.4-0.6 BB/K) over the last four years. The 27 players who qualified averaged 28 HRs, ranging from 20 to 34. Let’s turn it up a bit to the 0.55-0.75 BB/K and .240-.275 ISO levels and we find nine players who averaged 34 HRs, all reaching at least 30.

Full Lines: KO: .271-32-81-84-1 | AB: .257-38-77-92-4