Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 29th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Oil Can: I tailed your love of Andrew Vaughn and Hunter Brown, reasonable expectations this season for both?

Paul Sporer: If Vaughn stays healthy, I can definitely see another power and AVG jump… something like 23-25 HRs and a .280 AVG. Brown also needs his back to hold up, but if so, I think he can drop 130 IP with a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 145 Ks

Quarantino Martinez: Opening Day!!!! I thought I was maximally procrastinating at work already but they ain’t seen nothing yet.

Paul Sporer: Bout to hit another level with day baseball games!

Guest: What do you think of Julio Urias for JT Realmuto (current catcher is William Contreras).

Paul Sporer: Need league context… how many teams, categories?

Bobby: Is Jared Walsh a cut in a 12-team mixed roto?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Boris: Alek Thomas vs James Outman, who will produce more, and/or get more playing time?

Paul Sporer: I think Thomas is a bit overlooked because he didn’t perform too well last year. He’s a legit CF which will get him plenty of playing time and he could be a sneaky double-double. Outman has some real pop, but he has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game that could cut into his playing time so I prefer Thomas

Surprise Guys: Are any of the surprise AL starters (Bubic, Gaddis, Brito, Fleming) or jumping up your AL only queue?

Paul Sporer: Gaddis a bit due to Cleveland’s work with SPs (and his talent, he missed a ton of bats in the minors). I thought he’d routed to the bullpen but it’s nice to see him get the 5th starter’s role.

TexasForever87: I know your love for Wesneski goes deep, but if you had to cut one for a positional player: Wesneski or E. Cabrera?

Paul Sporer: Ooooh that’s a tough cut, but I’m cutting Cabrera

Quarantino Martinez: AL OBP league: are any of the Toronto 2B options worth rostering? Biggio, Merrifield, Espinal… (PS: I sort of like this Lukes kid in the outfield)

Paul Sporer: OBP certainly helps Biggio, but I’m unsure of his PT. Conversely, the OBP hurts Merrifield, but his PT is more locked and he could be an SB contributor (though not to his KC levels)

Billy: Better saves pickup, Fulmer/Boxberger/Finnegan?

Paul Sporer: Fulmer

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer:

Greg: Is Jesus Sanchez a drop in a 15- teamer or would you wait and see?

Paul Sporer: If he doesn’t make the team, I’m fine cutting him, but I think they are trying to keep him and De La Cruz up for Opening Day

Colton: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat today! I dropped Berrios for Grayson Rodriguez in my dynasty league today, still in win-now but think the upside and long term outlook helps me more. Think I made the right call?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that. Grayson Rodriguez could be up quickly if he gets off to a great start in Triple-A. He just had a rough spring so they decided to send him down to start the season

Surprise Guys: I heard you discuss Noda some on the podcast. Are any of the surprise AL  bats (Noda, Yainer Diaz in HOU, Lukes in TOR, Tapia, Josh Lowe) moving up your draft board? It’s an OBP keeper league, fwiw.

Paul Sporer: Noda had a nice 20-20 season in AAA last yr and PT should be there. If Diaz can carve out some regular PT, he’s an intriguing C2, especially if that PT isn’t at C (non-catching catchers rule!). I’m not fully out on Lowe, but he still strikes out way too much so he’s going to be volatile. The power-speed combo remains alluring, though. Lukes and Tapia don’t do a ton for me

OD: Jose Miranda had a monster spring. Felt like he was a little undervalued during draft season. How do you feel about is outlook this season?

Paul Sporer: I was worried about his shoulder coming into the spring, but then seeing him rake like that encouraged me. I agree that he was undervalued a bit and I think it was the early shoulder concerns that did it and then there was never a re-adjustment once he started cookin

Still Ill (ill, not 3): Liam Hendricks is apparently NOT going on the 60-day IL. Does that make him worth a flier, unlimited IL league?

Paul Sporer: Only with unlimited IL, sure

Driveline or Bust: So in 2022, and prior, Tim Anderson was going consensus 2nd/3rd round consistently which I thought was always overvalued and I never drafted him. However, not much in his profile has changed this year, and I scooped him in 2/3 leagues pick ~75. Are people too low on him this year or am I overreacting to what I personally think is perceived value?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s just an adjustment to his consistent missed time as opposed to his skills profile. He hasn’t topped 123 G since 2018. He was a fair value pick up this year where the risk was properly accounted for in his draft cost

OD: Kyle Isbel as a sleeper/flyer? Hits the ball hard, shows good plate discipline, former top prospect. If he lifts the ball it’s game on. If not cut loose don’t cost nothin.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! He was in my cluster of late OF gems for the Main Event, but I got Alek Thomas and Isbel’s teammate Edward Olivares ahead of time so I didn’t have room for Isbel as I don’t need 3 backup OF, but he’d have been my guy if either Thomas or Olivares were taken from me

Hello!!!: Drop Fraley or Seth Brown for a needed reliever?  Pickup Hendriks, Raley, or Herget?  Holds or saves work.

Paul Sporer: Drop Brown. Too early to pick up Hendriks to fix your immediate SV/HD issue. Go Raley or Herget (kind of a coin flip b/w ’em)

Morey: Give me a super deep relief sleeper, please.

Paul Sporer: Jonathan Hernandez, Trevor Stephan, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez

Rick in Hawaii: Who is Hunter Gaddis and should I be excited about him taking Triston McKenzie’s spot in the rotation?

Paul Sporer: Deep prospect on CLE’s list – https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cleveland-guardians-top-50-prospects-2023/ — a bit of intrigue just bc of how strong they are at developing arms. He could be interesting if he can miss some bats while starting, but I do still see him at RP in the long-term as I mentioned in the SP 16-30 Positional Preview

Guest: In a keep forever with slight emphasis on this year, Brandon Pfaadt or Bobby Miller?

Paul Sporer: Maaaan that’s tough. I really like both. I’m gonna lean Pfaadt

Paul Sporer: brb, gotta let the pups out

Guest: Are you holding Hendriks in a 12-team if he’s not on the IR?

Paul Sporer: No

Walker: Is Jordan Walker being overhyped? What’s his realistic fantasy impact in 2023?

Paul Sporer: Could be, that’s always a risk with a rookie, but I’m a fan. It’s gonna come down to keeping his whiff rate in check. I have him for a .261/.332/.470, 20 HR, 9 SB in 486 PA

Christoph: Looking for a 2B/SS eligible player, would you prefer: Urias, Stott, Rengifo, or Nick Gordon?

Paul Sporer: Urias if it’s Luis and then Stott/Gordon are a coinflip in 2nd place

Craig: Looks like E Montero will be the starting 3B to start the season. I know Moose and others are there, but what do you think of Montero prospects for this season? 12 team, NL only… worth a shot?

Paul Sporer: A starter in Colorado is absolutely worth a shot in NL Only

Peter: Would you rather have Fraley, Friedl, or Ozuna in an OBP league with K’s as a hitter category? Also, Jung or Kelenic in the same league?

Paul Sporer: Fraley and Jung

Peter: Or Paredes over Jung/Kelenic in that OBP/K league?

Paul Sporer: Hmmm Paredes is boosted in a league like that. I think that puts him in lockstep with Jung and you can pick your fave b/w those 2. Paredes could still be light on PT with the Rays so I’ll lean Jung but not so much that I’d clown you for going Paredes if he’s your guy

Rick in Hawaii: When do we see Akil Baddoo back with the major league team?

Paul Sporer: I guess he just doesn’t have it bc if he can’t make the 2022-23 Tigers, then it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in him. I’ll continue to track him, of course, but the team doesn’t dig him and it’s almost certainly bc of his strikeouts. If he can make an adjustment there in Triple-A, there’s still at least some upside. I was a HUGE on him last yr, but my confidence is waning as the team just seems to be saying they’re not in on him

Paul Sporer: To answer your question more directly, I’d assume he’s sometime in May if doesn’t fall on his face at AAA

Hello!!!: Any hope for Gallo or Casty?  I got ‘em for cheap.

Paul Sporer: More for Casty than Gallo for me. WYSIWYG with Gallo. I still think Casty labored through his first year in Philly and he’s better than what we saw, especially if he’s healthy

JP: what spring injuries should we worry about being worse than announced?

Paul Sporer: Obliques terrify me

OD: Alex Lange ceiling if walks are kept somewhat in check? the moon?

Paul Sporer: I mean, yeah but that’s a BIIIIIG “if” right now. And maybe not the moon bc the Tigers are still pretty crummy, but he could be a major gem if he can reign in the control without damaging his whiff capabilities

Bobby: Follow up on cutting Walsh.  Need a power 1B and pickings are slim. Belt, Voit, Dom Smith?

Paul Sporer: I like Dom Smith for a rebound season. Always been a Voit fan, but Dom’s PT is much firmer

Emilio Estevez: Carlos Estevez’ last four spring appearances: 4ip, 0bb, 3 hits, 1hbp, 1er, 8ks. Just saying

Paul Sporer: And Ben Joyce sent out. I’ve been drafting Estevez all offseason so it’s nice to see him stabilize down the stretch in spring

Lorenzo: Which players do you have the most shares of in your leagues?  Batters and pitchers.

Paul Sporer: Jake Fraley, Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Seiya Suzuki (pre-oblique), Alex Bregman, Eloy Jimenez, Max Muncy, Wil Myers, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Nick Martinez

Joe pignatano Jr: who would you drop to pick up Wesneski? C Schmidt, T Walker, or J Shustter?

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a big Walker fan, but it’s gonna be him. He kinda is what he is for fantasy purposes, especially in Philly. Shuster is an unknown, but I’ll take the shot on him over Walker rn

Kyle: E.Ruiz lead the league in steals?

Paul Sporer: If he hits like he did in spring, but I’m dubious. I’ll take the L if I’m proven wrong, but he was a fade for me this spring

Werkbunnst: Lots of steam for Graham Ashcraft — seems like an out of nowhere ace

Paul Sporer: He was poppin 100 mph sinkers last year but couldn’t get anything else going. Now the cutter and slider are workin and giving him something to miss bats with which could make him a gem

Torks lighter bat: Who would you rather start week 1: G. Marquez or Mitch Keller? Keller has better matchups but Marquez isn’t in Coors

Paul Sporer: Out of Coors but at SD and then at LAD next week. Keller isn’t muuuch better at CIN/at BOS. I guess if you have Marquez you gotta kinda go with him outside of Coors and hope he can stay hot after the big spring

Guest: Why Olivares over Isbel? What do you prefer about him?

Paul Sporer: Much better plate skills. That’s really it, though. I acknowledge Isbel could be a true speed demon whereas Olivares is more of a solid pop/solid spd guy, not excelling at either. If Isbel can trim the K rate (and his 9% SwStr suggest he might be able to), he could bypass Oli. For all the talk of how OF dries up at the star tiers kinda early, I found myself liking a looootttt of late guys for deeper formats (15-team mixer) and still almost took Isbel in the situation I mentioned earlier where I had Oli and Alek Thomas

Guest: Streaming ERod or David Peterson this week?

Paul Sporer: Peterson, markedly better matchups and the talent split b/w ’em isn’t much

Slapshot: More of a rant posed as a question, but why can’t MLB teams name all their starters for the short week by now for those of us in weekly move leagues trying to maximize our rosters?

Paul Sporer: Right? Stay tuned to our Probables Page https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid

Gabriel Moreno: I went ahead and canned K. Ruiz and J. Heim in my leagues for Gabriel Moreno. Am I too high on the kid? With Kelly out for months I figured he’s got the highest ceiling (even though I like the guys I dropped, I will never roster more than one catcher). 1C League for clarity.

Paul Sporer: While I am a Heim guy, I’m totally OK w/this move. I was pretty keen on Moreno even before the Kelly injury under the notion that they’d mix him enough at DH to make him at least a viable C2 and now w/the PT path clear, he has a huge upside IMO. It’s so hard to get AVG at catcher and that could be his main contribution

WM: Would you drop Danny Jansen for Jonah Heim, Christian Vazquez or Travis D’Arnaud?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m rolling with DanJan there.

Where’s my cane?: What are your expectations of Justin Turner? Is he being undervalued? Seems like a great park for a solid hitter,  HR may be light but seeing a .300 hitter + hitter with moderate power. Would love your opinion.

Paul Sporer: There’s a general ageism in fantasy that keeps guys like this cheap! He’s not without risk given his health profile, but I totally agree that he is more than fairly priced! All the injury concerns are fully baked into his price at 3B #21 in the Main Event

JV: Start Kluber vs Baltimore OR R. Lopez 4 games at Houston?

Paul Sporer: I lean ReyLo even w/the tough matchup

Weekly lineups OF: Would you cut Marsh, Profar, or Friedl if you had to?

Paul Sporer: Leaning Marsh

BSL Bobby: Bradish or Peterson as last SP to start the season? How would you order M. Vierling, E. Rosario, Franmil Reyes, E. Olivares and K. Stowers for last OF spot?

Paul Sporer: Bradish by a little over D Pete. Olivares, Stowers, Vierling are my favorites from the OF grouping. Franmil is back on my Watchlist after a big spring, but I’m struggling to see the PT

KCbbq: How much FAAB would you throw at Volpe and Colas this Sunday in a 12 team AL only league? We startout with 100 FAAB.

Paul Sporer: You’re probably going to have to go $75+ on Volpe (you know your league better, but I can see some major bids coming) and if you don’t allow $0 bids, I’m unlikely to do it just bc of how much it could hamper you in the 2nd half if you can’t replace guys. If you can do $0 bids, I’m inclined to take the big swing bc there likely won’t be many guys like that on an AL Only wire. Colas is more of a $20-25 guy at the high end. If you really need the pop, push the mid-20s, otherwise I’d probably go $15-18 and hope everyone’s attention is on Volpe

RAH: Yan Gomes or Blake Sabol?

Paul Sporer: Sabol! I got him as my C2 at the Main Event. I love non-catching catchers and he’s a utilityman who might not ever have to catch and still get regular PT v. Righties

Dr. Brozarks: Is Vaughn Grissom a good buy low in a dynasty right now?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’d check in for sure. While I was dubious about them entrusting him w/the everyday SS job, I’m not out on him as a hitter at all

Don Von Handburger: It seems very likely to me that Robertson will be the anointed saves dude for the Mets.  Why is everyone slapping the “committee” label on that?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure. I tend to agree re: D-Rob. I just don’t see Ottavino getting it and think some are kinda just hoping for it and ignoring the fact that D-Rob will likely just be the guy

Big Bux Hunter: Any positive feelings about Buxton getting past 100 games this year?

Paul Sporer: With him DH’ing more, yes. I loved the Michael A. Taylor acquisition for that exact reason. Now they don’t have to feel like they’re giving up the defense when DH’ing Buxton bc that’s MAT’s calling card

Guest: Did anyone’s Spring Training have a significant impact on whether you’re likely to draft him (setting aside injuries)?

Paul Sporer: Graham Ashcraft (the aforementioned swing-&-miss we’ve seen from him), Cole Ragans (draft champions pick and watchlist guy in FAAB leagues… got his velo back, missed plenty of bats but starting out in the pen), Conner Capel (5 SBs, there is data that SB attempts in spring are useful in determining who might run in season and then he got a roster spot, too!), Blake Sabol (admittedly barely knew the name before spring), and I pushed up my guy Triston Casas so I didn’t get snaked since he’s been crushing in Spring.

tumtum: Is it worth rostering F.Reyes with my DH spot when there are lot of nice corners?

Paul Sporer: Who are the other guys?

Don Von Handburger: Is Volpe really an elite SB guy, or is it just one of those cases of crazy minor league steals numbers?

Paul Sporer: Fair question, we’ve definitely seen guys go crazy in the minors and then barely run in the majors (Joc, Springer.. Bichette initially but then had the big 2021 before regressing last yr so maybe he’s up in the air a little). That said, it wasn’t just last season as he has 89 SB in 1259 MiLB PA.

tumtum: Greene is my breakout pick of the year! I can’t wait for him to surprise! I think the Tigers’ hitters could have a nice season. I have them betting expectations! Do you think Turnbull will leave off where he was before he suffered TJ?

Paul Sporer: I hope you’re right about Greene. I like Tork to rebound, too! Turnbull’s command will be the key as that’s the last thing to return after TJ, but he did get the extended recovery and had just 2 BB in 12 IP this spring. He isn’t expensive, either

Siri: Why do you have Carroll ranked higher in AVG leagues rather than OBP leagues?

Paul Sporer: That’s just how the rankings shook out. I gave him a 10% BB rate, which is jump after the 7% mark from his MLB debut. He doesn’t really strike me as a better in OBP league kinda guy

Don Von Handburger: Have you ever drafted from the bowels of an MLB ballpark?  Knee-deep in hot dog juice?

Paul Sporer: Yes, the Staten Island Yankees park for Tout Wars years ago

Scott TINSTAAPP: How was the remainder of your time in Vegas?

Paul Sporer: I had a great time… It was nice meeting you!

Joe: Is Evan Phillips worth starting the first period over guys like Kluber or Ashcraft with only having 4 games vs Arizona?

Paul Sporer: I’d rank it Ash, Phillips, Kluber

Scott TINSTAAPP: Who gets the first save chance in Philly? Who ends up with the most saves for the Dodgers? Kimbrel and Hudson for me.

Paul Sporer: Agree on Kimbrel, but I’m an Evan Phillips guy!

Paul H.: Any thoughts on Spencer Steer – how big does the league need to be in order to roster?

Paul Sporer: Big fan! Really like him for 15-team mixers but he is fringe in 12-teamers right now, depending how many reserve slots you have

E: if ashcrafts first start or two makes the spring training numbers look legit are you dropping eovaldi in a 12 teamer for him?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’d be OK with that

Don’t be a Hader: Does Will Smith in TEX have any shot at closing?

Paul Sporer: I have Jonathan Hernandez behind Leclerc and if Leclerc keeps pitching like he did in spring, he’ll hold the job all year

Guest: Which of the Houston fill in guys do you like the best? (Hensley, Dirden, Diaz)

Paul Sporer: I’m on the Hensley train

Joe: Is Vaughn Grissom a cut in 15 team NFBC FAAB leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m probably not stashing him with just 7 reserves

Farhandrew Zaidman: Gun to your head, does Shohei end the year on the Angels or another team?

Paul Sporer: Please don’t shoot me… he stays in LA

Mike: Lost Hoskins…D Hall or Meneses for the first 9 day period?

Paul Sporer: Meneses

Big Daddy: any interest in Esteury Ruiz? Kid is showing a bit of pop this spring

Paul Sporer: He had a huge spring so I’m keeping an eye, but he was a full fade from me during draft season so I’m not going to pretend I’m all of a sudden in now

Armchair Commish: Drey Jameson is going to be valuable in my league as an eventual SP,RP. What are your thoughts on him? Do you think he will play a significant role in that bullpen?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big fan. I wish he’d have won the 5th role of course, but I’m eager to see how he’s used in the bullpen as I think it could be a multi-inning role with some potential high leverage opportunities as he awaits an SP role opening up

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get goin! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!