Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 5th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out, sorry I’m late! My gf is having computer issues and I lost track of time when we were putting it back together (for the third time… it’s not going well w/the fixes unfortunately) — post-chat update: it’s working again for now!!

MochiBetts: at what point do we start to become concerned about the ball from a hitting POV this year and how do we integrate it into how we value the middle tier pitchers having better years?

Paul Sporer: It’s already part of the equation for me and definitely hurts those mid-tier power guys who’s wall scrappers are now just F7s, F8s, and F9s in the scorebook. I wouldn’t overreact to it, but I’d lower my expectations of those guys in the 12-20ish HR range

Idiotic Failson: Are you starting Rodon against Minny tonight? They’re just sneaky good enough to make me nervous. I don’t NEED the innings.

Paul Sporer: I’m starting him mostly everywhere https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-june-5th-2024/ but if you really don’t need the innings and fear a bomb, I don’t object to a sit.

Paul Sporer: The recos are always general and then your specific details can change the calculus

Interested Fantasy Owner: What do you think the odds are of Drew Thorpe making his MLB debut this season? I’ve been stashing but think it might be time to cut my losses.

Paul Sporer: I don’t see the need to hold… could see him post-Deadline when they move Fedde, Crochet, and…. and… Bobby Thigpen and Jason Bere

Idiotic Failson: Why is Arozarena so bad?

Paul Sporer: The .199 BABIP is the problem, but that doesn’t really answer the why. He’s simply not striking the ball as hard and honestly, he’s probably the kind of guy we were discussing earlier w/the first question about the squishy ball. He’s a low-20s HR guy and now all of a sudden, his HardHit rate is down 9 pts, Barrel rate down 5 pts with far fewer line drives. He still has 8 HRs, but that’s bc he’s selling out for the HRs to compensate w/a rise in FB rates and 4 degrees higher Launch Angle. The really cost is 1Bs/2Bs right now as he’s pacing for just 70 this year after 114 last year.

Paul Sporer: The 8 HR/7 SB fantasy juice has been enough to keep me on the hook w/him, but I am a bit nervous that the AVG just might not rebound strongly

weekly Corbin Carroll sob session: “but I’d lower my expectations of those guys in the 12-20ish HR range” YOU’RE NOT HELPING, PAUL!

Paul Sporer: lololol I’m sooorrryyyy

weekly Corbin Carroll sob session: Steamer full season update: .231/.314/.375
Jamey Carroll career: .272/.349/.338

Schneider, Davis: How often do 3 win/150 wRC+ players through half a season’s worth of games turn out to actually not be that good? I mean besides Kevin Maas (well he was only worth 1-2 wins, but this is a fantasy chat)

Paul Sporer: ugh I’m trying to run a Stathead to query to see who else has done this but I can’t find the games range part

Paul Sporer: I know it’s in there somewhere!!!

Paul Sporer: I’ll check back in on this… sorry, lol

E: Obviously I can’t cut, but Austin Riley has been awful. See anything to give me hope here? Also, Acuna was my first pick, so It’s been a rough year from my top two picks. Gunnar and Sal Perez keeping me in a close second place for now.

Paul Sporer: We discuss Riley on the pod today. The long and short of it is that we’re unmoved and we’re riding out the storm. It’s frustrating, but ya gotta ride it out and just keep him in the lineup. Signs are positive that he will pull out of this

Rock & Hard Place: Hi Paul, roll with Ashby today or Manaea in London this weekend? Both are vs PHI.

Paul Sporer: #NeverLondon

Paul Sporer: Hell, I’m down to sit Ranger out there

HathShat: Happy Cade Povich SZN! You think they’ll keep a spot for him ongoing?

Paul Sporer: Oh if he pops off, they’ll keep him up! Eager to see what he can. He’s worth going for in all formats just given the upside while being on a great team

Salty: Winker has more CS than Semien has SBs – is Semien more hurt than just “one maintenance day” after breaking his iron man streak?  And is he a sell high if his lower half is too banged up to run and may hurt his power, too?

Paul Sporer: So much of stealing is team context. Juxtaposing Semien with Winker is a great example of that. The Nats lead baseball with 95 SBs and have had a lot of pop-ups base stealers. Meanwhile, Texas is 2nd to last at 24 so I think Semien just has more of a yellow, perhaps even reddish light on the bases.

Martin Sekulski: Pick one long term: Tork or Colt Keith

Paul Sporer: I’ll lean Keith

Marty: You starting Cade Povich tomorrow @ TOR?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to it. Not a muuust start.

Totally Not Cade Povich: When do I get a call? Do I need another injury or some garbage Suarez starts? Should I Tonya Harding Chayce?

Paul Sporer: This was before they saw the news lolol

Paul Sporer: OK the Stathead thing finished

Paul Sporer: So in response this:

Schneider, Davis
1:26 How often do 3 win/150 wRC+ players through half a season’s worth of games turn out to actually not be that good? I mean besides Kevin Maas (well he was only worth 1-2 wins, but this is a fantasy chat)

Paul Sporer: I just looked at some recent players to put up a big run similar to Schneider’s in their first 300 PA and while there are a ton of studs (Yordan, Tatis, Alonso, Soto, etc…), but there are flameouts, so yes it can happen:

Aledmys Diaz 2016
Tyler Naquin also 2016
Ryan Schimpf ALSOOO 2016
Keston Hiura 2019
Frank Schwindel 2021

Paul Sporer: It wasn’t a rigorous study by any stretch and one thing that jumps out immediately is that Schneider has better plate skills than virtually everyone here, but I’m just saying he hasn’t delivered a large enough sample to yet say he’s definitely good. That said, I’m along for the ride so we’ll see how it plays out!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Should I drop Schneider, Vierling or Sosa for B.Lowe in my 12T H2H with OPS?

Paul Sporer: Ehh… I’m not so sure I would

Chilly: Anywhere on the site to find the abs/pas where hard hit, bb%, la, etc stabilizes?

Paul Sporer: Miiiight be time for an update on this 2010 piece, but: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

Jb: Hunter B or Taj ROS?

Paul Sporer: I like both but I’m buying Brown’s sinker conversion that is delivering results lately!

Milton: Paul – My outfield is a dumpster fire after losing Acuña, and I have to drop one of the following players, Davis Schneider, Brenton Doyle, Tj Friedl,  or George Springer. Who would you drop? Also, is Eloy Jimenez a good IL stash or is he cooked?

Paul Sporer: If it’s a free stash with Eloy, sure, but my hopes are diminished some as a former big time believer. For the drop, I’m a little torn but I think it’s Friedl (don’t tell Justin!). He’s another one of those mid-tier power types who might hurt from this junk ball we’re seeing and the park alone might not be able to protect. His SBs should remain solid, but Doyle covers that. I’d be open to revisiting Friedl, he only has 12 gms this yr after all, but he’s my cut right now

JG: Added Waldron(because of a few SP injuries)  in a deep 12T mixed roto. Level of confidence ?

Paul Sporer: Confidence level is modest w/any knuckler, but I’m OK w/him. Gets ARI and at NYM in his next 2

Guest: Please rank in a points league: Alec Burleson, Matt Vierling, and Nick Gonzales

Paul Sporer: I think the order you’ve listed them is how I like ’em. Burleson & Vierling are close for me. I do like Gonzales and pts lg does help him, but I’m still not sure there’s enough juice

Don Von Handburger: So you expect the London games to be high scoring?  Freshen your drink, guv’ner?

Paul Sporer: Yes I do expect runs aplenty!

Colton: Justin made note of this in the Riteup this morning but Suwinski is back and as long as the plate improvements hold, we’re in for a ride with him. Hop back on the train before it leaves the station everybody!

Paul Sporer: Also on the pod today! I’m back in!!!!!

Oyster Burns: Got Jansen at catcher. Enough semi interesting names on the wire to stream a bit with Trevino, wong, y diaz, lee. Any reason to drop Jansen for Wells or H Davis for the upside? OBP and BA h2h league

Paul Sporer: Very down to stream in single C leagues unless I have a mega stud

HappyFunBall: Winker has more caught stealings this year than he had career stolen bases before this year. What got into him?

Paul Sporer: We tangentially discussed him earlier… but health and team context are driving this crazy surge!

O’stradamus: Cut Ober or hold for now?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding. Suuuuuper nervous about the trip to NYY, but Ober’s my guy!

casey stengel: Drop Ober for Hunter Brown in a points league?

Paul Sporer: No, I think ya gotta have a lesser arm than Ober to cut

HappyFunBall: Totally not the actual scene inside the Mets clubhouse. Probably.:

HappyFunBall:

Buxton: is there any optimism we can see the 2020-22 version again?

Paul Sporer: I’d like to think so, but I’ve lost pretty much all hope

Guest: who are all these Ober panickers? I get it, but also KC has always owned him and NYY is NYY… he’s got Pittsburgh next and is an obvious start there to me (12t)

Paul Sporer: Oh right right right, he pitched last night. He was relatively fine all things considered 5 IP/3 ER

Paul Sporer: And yeah the other issue is the 2 KC duds but they’re good so I don’t hold that against him TOO much

On a Houck and a Prayer: Tanner Houck is obviously not going to keep this up. Not only is his HR/9 the lowest for a qualified starter in 70 years at 0.12, Nolan Ryan was the only other under 0.15 back in 1981. But knowing that… how much regression do you expect?

Paul Sporer: I see him as a mid-3.00s ERA kind of a guy from here on out so an all formats guy for sure!

Rodney: Thanks for doing these, Paul! I picked up Edouard Julien as a buy-low in a dynasty keeper. Think he’s back up soon and hitting? Mid/term, I think he may be a candidate to add 1B/OF in Minny if they promote Brooks Lee. Thoughts? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: No problem, thanks for coming! I think he can be the first guy up for almost any injury and he’ll get a chance if he gets on track in the minors. I’m not out on Julien in the long-term

Guest: Would you trade Volpe for Corbin?

Paul Sporer: Oooohhh that’s toughhh. But I’d hold

Joe: What type of players gain/lose value in a daily league as opposed to a weekly league?

Paul Sporer: Platoon guys for sure. Especially those righty killers like Joc Pederson who just doesn’t even play vL

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

Paul Sporer: ELIZA. BETH. OLSEN.

Salty: Considering the SNY broadcast team’s collective age, should the network employ a cardiologist on call specifically for games where the Mets hold a lead going into the 9th inning?  And will Edwin Diaz right the ship in a few weeks to lessen Mets fans’ pain?

Paul Sporer: I hooope Diaz rebounds. I’ll definitely slot him back in immediately upon his return

Ouch: Ben Brown or Gavin Williams ROS

Paul Sporer: I’d rather take the shot on Williams. Brown is intriguing and I love his K potential, but his 2-pitch mix (one of which isn’t that great — the fastball) definitely makes him super volatile

Oyster Burns: you live suarez or povich better going forward?

Paul Sporer: I lean Albert Suarez until I know what Povich’s outlook is will be. If Suarez keeps pitching well, there’s no reason they shouldn’t let him keep soaking up IP

Paul Sporer: And I don’t say “soaking up” derisively, bc he’s just not getting smoked out there

Dylan: I just want to shout out all those that didn’t lose faith in Nolan “Home Run” Gorman

Paul Sporer: Super volatile guy, but ya gotta stick w/guys like that!

Guest: Do you think Langford figures it out this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know but I’m willing to take the shot and roster him where I can.

Mike: Are we back in on Hunter Brown or he is still a matchup streamer?

Paul Sporer: In and really encouraged by the sinker/4-seamer switch up

Gripper: Cody Poteet.  5th starter insurance?  Seems healthy

Paul Sporer: Yeah I scooped him in the Main Event (15 tm 5×5) this week!

HappyFunBall: One trick ponies gain value in dailys also. I’m not starting Mr Empty X everyday, but he’s totally rosterable as a getaway day full in

Paul Sporer: Great call!!

Alex: Fry on the bench for the 2nd time in 3 games…is this the end of his magical run?!

Paul Sporer: No, no, not necessarily. He’s had a few of 2 sits in 3 gms lately.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning at 8am CT and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!