Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 18th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon y’all, thanks for coming out

Guest: scale of 1 to Ober’s fastball velocity this year (90.4(, how crazy is swapping out Ober for Walter

Paul Sporer: I can see cutting Ober in a shallower league. I’m still trying to just reserve him medium-deeper formats in case this is just a lull for him. I really like Walter, though, so getting him interests me for sure

smuckles: Brendan Donovan for Willy Adames a fair trade? Feel like there is something more in Adames’s bat.

Paul Sporer: Ya I can’t quit Adames, I definitely think he has a solid summer incoming. (No shade on B Donny, btw, big fan of him, but prefer Adames rest of season)

DH: Cut Steer for Toglia in a dynasty format?

Paul Sporer: No I still prefer Steer b/w the 2; Toglia just Ks too much to be consistently good

sp qs: Hey Paul!  Are you starting the miz today in a QS points league? the cubbies are a hard second start right?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m being v careful v. CHC — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-june-18th-2025

Guest: CES has been a dud since I added him…drop him and add wenceel Perez for RoS?

Paul Sporer: Ya, no issues there. Wenceel won’t stay this hot w/a 192 wRC+ but I think he can remain a solid piece

Yakety Sox: Where are you with Semien these days? After a terrible start, he’s been much better over the last month. I’m in a dynasty league (20 team, pts league) and trying to figure out what his trade value is as I look at dealing him in a rebuilding year for my club.

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s on fire of late w/a 1032 OPS, 4 HR in his L20 games. He’s still got an ugly composite line, though, and last yr is also hanging over his head so I don’t think the returns will be massive. I think you pitch it that he’s back to being competent and that you’d take someone in their mid-20s w/a bit of upside as opposed to chasing any sort of premium prospects

Jake: What should i do with Matt Mclain?

Paul Sporer: Always need more context on these questions. He still has enough fantasy juice w/8 HR & 11 SB but the .194 AVG makes him tough to start anywhere right now. That is just bludgeoning your AVG day-in, day-out. I’m still inclined to hold him in deeper formats bc he can be such an asset if he’s hitting even .230, but in shallower formats, I understand trawling the wire for someone new and maybe just keeping tabs on McLain in case he improves. I was a huge of his coming into the year and obviously did not see a sub-.200 AVG coming our way

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. Pitchers continue to drop like flies and it’s getting bleak. In a 12tm QS, I have the league’s top offense and third worst pitching, trying to solve it (unsuccessfully) on the wire for now. How are you feeling about Scherzer coming back? Hopefully ramping up to 75 pitches today. Options at this point: Scherzer, Giolito, Loupp, Soroka, Dobbins, Verlander, Elder

Paul Sporer: I think there are some guys to work with here depending on matchups. Soroka gets LAD this weekend, so let’s check in w/him next week when he goes to LAA. Giolito has B2B gems w/a startable trip to SF this wknd but then a risky TOR start next wk. His teammate Dobbins gets at SF/at LAA in his next 2  Roupp gets a tough BOS start this wknd, but then a very appealing trip to CHW after that so maybe scoop him now to hold for the White Sox. JV and Scherzer are penciled in for a 2-step next wk and I like taking a shot on their upside next wk, espec. JV bc he gets the ultimate 2-step of MIA/at CHW if the schedule holds

Adenolith: Would you drop K. Carpenter to pick up McLain or Profar in a shallow league? Currently he’s a bench bat while I’m running Springer and J. Lowe in my UTIL/OF

Paul Sporer: I’d rather not, I know Carp is chilly right now, but McLain is hitting sub-.200 as we discussed and Profar is still out for another 2 wks (July 2nd return)

Why not Zoidberg: I’m worried about Goodman’s plate discipline / swing decisions. Already have Willson Contreras at C so he’s in my OF for now. Is this a good sell high point on him or would you hold?

Paul Sporer: I do think if you’re selling him to someone as a C, there would be some major intrigue. He’s obv still good as an OF w/the #s he’s put up so far, but he’s amazing at C right now. It is reasonable to have some AVG concerns bc if the .350 BABIP doesn’t hold, then his 27% K/5% BB combo does suggest a substantial AVG dip could be coming soon. I do think he’ll have enough power to be a good C all year, but his OF appeal could wane if he’s hitting .240 w/power as opposed to .270 or better

Derek: Hi Paul, thanks for doing this!  In a 10 team 5×5 keeper league, I have 49 of 50 points in pitching (Paul and Eno for the win – Crochet, Ryan, Woo, Gilbert, Webb, Warren, Bubic, Miz), so I have to move something for some hitting.   I want to target somebody like Lindor, Naylor, or Trout?  Is Lindor too much for Woo?

Paul Sporer: Let’s gooo!! Great staff you’ve put together there. Woo’s been great, but I think he falls short of netting Lindor. Lindor was a 1st/2nd rounder and he’s delivered on that draft slot. Woo’s been like a top 3-4 rd type guy with great ratios and 6 Ws, but modest K output

jerry: how long am i keeping festa in a 12t keeper?

Paul Sporer: I’ll give him the weekend to see how he does v. MIL, but if it’s another dud, I’m moving on in 12s. He’s in between team streamer and straight up streamer in 12s right now, especially w/the 5-and-dive usage they have on him

Jonas Jay: Favorite ROS Starter – Emmet Sheehan, Quinn Priester, Hunter Dobbins, Brandon Walter, Mick abel?

Paul Sporer: Very intriguing group there. Hard to tag a firm fave ROS as this whole group could face IP restrictions that keep them from staying in the rotation from here on out. So I’m less inclined to look that far ahead and focus more on the next month few weeks.

Dobbins – he’s slated for at SFG/at LAA/v. CIN and then a 2-step of COL/TBR over the next month and I like that whole run for him.

Walter – a bit more up and down w/his matchups as I like at LAA this wknd, but then have some pause about v. CHC and at COL the 2 wks after that. But I think w/the skills he’s shown, he’s at least a team streamer even if we’re skipping tough starts like the Cubs one.

Priester – he’s been on my radar all yr despite his modest skills… I liked him as a prospect and I trust MIL’s development so I’m happy to see the great results of late including 6 IP of 4 of his L5… the Ks are inconsistent w/2 starts of 7 but then a 0 and 3 mixed in, too. He’s slated for at MIN/COL/at NYM/LAD… I like him for the first 2 and then tbd

Paul Sporer: Sheehan is the opener right now so no real value there until that changes

Paul Sporer: Abel – gets NYM to finish off his 2 step this wk followed by at ATL/SDP/at SFG… solid teams, but not eye-popping offenses to run from.

So taking it all together, I rank ’em as Dobbins/Abel *small dip* Walter *smaller dip* Priester … as much as I love Priester, his meager K total holds him back in this group

Mike: Will Warren, too inconsistent to start each week or take the good (Ks) with the bad (ERA, usually primarily from one inning)?  There are not a lot of pitchers available with his K potential.

Paul Sporer: Classic team streamer… I want his 2-steps and good 1-start matchups, but then I don’t wanna put him on the wire for the starts I’m skipping so he just hits the reserves

Ike: Any hope for Bailey Ober this year?

Paul Sporer: There’s still hope that he’s just in a lull, but I have some reason concerns. As a low-velo, HR-heavy guy, he’s always been running a bit of a tightrope and so this could be more than a dip in production. I’m reluctant to make an aggro cut right now in most formats, but I totally get benching for at CIN tonight

Ike: Which Nats starter do you prefer: Irvin, Parker or Soroka?

Paul Sporer: Soroka is my fave of the trio

RW: Where are you on Torkelson? His OPS has dropped from .896 in April to .828 in May and now to just .710 so far in June. Is the (re)breakout still on?

Paul Sporer: Ya still pacing for a 37 HR/109 RBIs. Even if you lop off April, it’s a 33/96 pace. I think he’s a bankable 30 HR 1b

Mike: Kwan for Mize (or similar SP) and Romano (or similar closer with worts).  Which side do you want?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a hard preference which is the sign of a fair deal. I think if needs align, this def works

bdubs: Can you explain the Astros handling of the Yordan situation with his injury, their lack of transparency and seeming ineptness in managing the injury/recovery itself.

Paul Sporer: Put “Tucker” in for “Yordan” and it’s 2024 all over again. No idea what the heck is going on w/HOU injury management, but after last yr, I learned to accept that I’m just gonna be in the dark and probably angry if one of my Astros players gets hurt

Kevin: is it reasonable to expect anything useful from Shane McClanahan this year?

Paul Sporer: I’d reallyyyyy temper that expectation. Remember when he got hurt and they lied about how it wasn’t severe? I fell for that crap, too…. so annoying

TBD: PU Dobbins, drop Festa?

Paul Sporer: Yes, def prefer Dobbins to Festa

Guest: between Goldschmidt and Ober, this past week I’m definitely taking “if you never regret a cut you’re cutting too rarely” to heart

Paul Sporer: Especially in shallower leagues, can’t just hold through everything. Gotta be chasing heat off the wire. Goldy is probablyyyy just a BABIP regression case, but Ober scares me a decent bit right now so I def understand that one

Guest: Barger batting 2nd vs a lefty tonight, whaaaaaa

Paul Sporer: Hit a walkoff, get a jolt of manager confidence!

TBD: Pu Walter, drop D May?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m good w/this move

Just a bit outside: Keeper league. 5 x 5 hth worth obp instead avg. in first place, would you trade Kristian Campbell for Tork. Campbell would be kept as a freshman. Tork is probably not a keeper. Tork would take over for Nate alone at first. Campbell is a bench guy this year. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I think I’d hold Campbell here primarily bc I’m not sure Tork is THAT much better than Nate Lowe rest of this season so losing the potential Campbell keeper is a bit too much for me

Paul Sporer: I still owe y’all an SP rankings update, I haven’t forgotten. Just feel like we get 3-4 big injuries or moves every time I’m close to being done and I end up getting lost in shuffling for another 2-3 hrs on a given night. I just need to commit to a ranking and give y’all something to chew on. The Daily SP Chart allows me to react to day-to-day movement w/SPs so if I under/over rank someone, I can address it there. OK y’all, I’m headed out. Thanks so much for coming to chat, peace!