Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 20th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Worst day in baseball today with no games or MLB-based events!

Paul Sporer: But we’ll make it better with some chatting!!

Leo: What are your thoughts on Braxton Garrett? Are his improvements for real?

Paul Sporer: I’m certainly intrigued by him. He showed major BB gains in AAA and has brought them to the majors so far. If he can continue this newfound control, there is some real 2H upside

Jim Leyland Palmer: For next season onwards, is Strider a top tier starting pitcher keeper asset? Or is there some concerns / variability with his future?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t quite go top tier but he’s up there. It’s always hard to predict the future with SPs, but his stuff is excellent and he doesn’t seem daunted by the shift to starting

The Batman: Is Pivetta back to Pivetta, or was that just a bad run of opponents?

Paul Sporer: I think the 11 start run of excellence was the anomaly

Nelson Cruz: Has fathertime finally caught me at the age of 42? I was bad in TB too.

Paul Sporer: He had gotten going in May/June (.829 OPS) after an ugly April (.479) and before another dip in July (.488). I don’t think he’s fully cooked, but he a couple tiers below where he used to live

Bruce in 2023: Good afternoon Paul. Needed a bat bad in a deep mixed daily roto. I added Austin Slater & B.Belt.Since they platoon a lot I figured one is definitely going to start. Thoughts ?

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely OK with that, especially in daily!

Mr. Fister: I have N. Lowe, Semien, and Seager in my lineup in 12 team 5×5 H2H roto.  Taveras is available.  How many Rangers equals too many Rangers?

Paul Sporer: LOL, I’m OK getting multiple players from the same team, even if it’s not a top tier team. If you need Taveras’s potential SBs, I say go for it!

Paul: I have an opportunity to trade for Albies cheap. Will he be back for fantasy playoffs, and if so, do you think his injury will hamper him?

Paul Sporer: Too hard to say when he’ll be back or how good he will be. There is definitely risk. I think you need to assess how much the downside (him not playing at all) would hurt you. If you’re OK with that potential outcome, then you can go for the upside of 4-6 wks of Albies

Kevin: Last week’s pod has me Grisham-pilled, would you drop Pham for Trent in an OBP league? I can use steals and I don’t see Pham running too much rest of the year

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that move. The 2 haven’t been too far off and if you believe Grisham will be the better runner ROS (which I agree with), then make the swap!

Guardians of the Franimal: Is Franmil Reyes cuttable in a 12-team H2H OBP league? Added him before coming off IL to replace Harper. Just had BLowe return, already have JDM & Pham. Best RF available include Cutch, Kep, Blackmon.

Paul Sporer: Yes, he is. Even though he’s gotten back on track a bit since his return, it’s still with a .265 (!!!) OBP

Colton: Hey Paul, thanks for doing a chat today, always look forward to them! I wanted to get your opinion on a trade I made recently. I sent Machado and McCullers and got Darvish and Mahle in return. Have been hit hard by the injury bug this year but still have a shot at making the playoffs. Do you think it was a move worth doing or would you have held onto them?

Paul Sporer: I probably would’ve tried to up that Mahle piece a bit, but I’m OK with this. Darvish has been ace-like and Mahle has been great since that 8 ER dud v. CHC (2.58 ERA in 7 starts)

George: See any good chance of Trevor Rogers regaining form?  Thanks

Paul Sporer: I’m not terribly hopeful for it happening this year. The changeup just isn’t there.

Matt: Is Corbin Carroll going to be a star? Do you think he comes up this year?

Paul Sporer: He has incredible upside! I’m a HUGE Carroll fan!! He definitely has a shot to get the call this year and then make the team out of spring next year. I like Alek Thomas quite a bit and like Carroll even more

Chico’s Bail Bonds: Please rank these NL-only outfielders ROS (4×4): Yelich, Happ, Suzuki, Pederson, Senzel, Luis Gonzalez, W. Myers, Esteury Ruiz. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think the way you’ve listed them is my order

Cup of Milk: Two Sale questions: 1) if IL space isn’t a problem is he going to contribute anything when he comes back or is he just going to be a bad pitcher for a week or two? 2) in a keeper league, is there any reason to hold on for 2023?

Paul Sporer: Impossible to say how he will be when he gets back from the broken finger. I’m not worried about keeping him for 2023 anywhere, though

Dale Murphy: What you think about Ranger Suarez down the stretch? You sti think Lopez is a top 10 sp?

Paul Sporer: Suarez has been a lot more in line with what I expected over his last 11 starts: 3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 21% K. I thought his WHIP could be a bit better, but it’s palatable in a 15-teamer. He can maintain this kind of level rest of season. I won’t have Lopez in the top 10 still but he’s not plummeting, either. He had the duds at NYM & STL over his last 6 but the other 4 are great. I still think he goes as far as the shoulder allows and if healthy will be a premium starter

Homer: I just joined…am I too late to ask a bunch of questions about a possible Juan Soto trade?!?

Paul Sporer: Thankfully haven’t had any! And I only say thankfully because it’s just so wide open that it’s worth expending too much energy on, especially because I’m not sold he’ll be dealt by the deadline at all. That feels like Boras fueling stuff to rush it. Washington can and should take their time to find the best deal.

Jung Bong Jovi: I’m pretty sure I saw you driving on Manchaca in South Austin some years ago.  I meant to honk and wave, but then I would have looked weird.  Probably not as weird as I look now though.  Anyways, hi.

Paul Sporer: looool hi

Paul Sporer: and that is quite near where I used to live so it’s certainly plausible!

Guest: Trevor Story for Alek Manoah a fair deal?

Paul Sporer: Yes

It’s Not Too Late: Oneil Cruz about what you’d expect so far? Is this a case of keep head above water this year and breakout next?

Paul Sporer: Yes, this is well within the range of outcomes. His 2H has a pretty wide range, too, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he popped off, but I’m not expecting him to just yet. I’d love anything around a 100 wRC+ w/his pwr & spd. That’d be eminently playable!

DH: In a Dynasty format, would you drop Brayan Bello for a guy who can help you this year, like a Braxton Garrett or a Max Ramirez?

Paul Sporer: I’m not Mr. Dynasty guy as my experience centers more on redraft and limited keeper leagues (4-6 player type leagues) but I feel like it’s too early to move on from Bello. Hell, he could be the guy who helps you down the stretch this year. I don’t think it’s likely given where his command is, but it’s not impossible. Overall, the stuff is too rich to let go of so quickly. I would find a way to get Garrett, but not by way of Bello

sox05fan: I’m addicted to riding the Jonathan Schoop wave but this year has been brutal. Any evidence of a bounce back 2nd half or is his power cooked?

Paul Sporer: Justin theorized that guys like Schoop without top of the scale power would be hurt most by the soggy ball as many of their homers would now be warning track shots. Seems to be hitting Schoop and Candelario just as he suggested. Each have hinted that a big wave is coming and it never materializes

Where in the world is Char-men San Diego?: How are you feeling about Baddoo going into the second half?  Seemed to get back on track in the minors before getting called back up.  Can he rediscover some of what we were hoping for coming into the year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m definitely not out after 60 crap PA or whatever it was before the send down. He was excellent in Triple-A and he can 100% get back on track in the majors. The hits will start falling (.178 BABIP)

Rick: Jesus Sanchez was pretty impressive last year in his half season, but has struggled a lot this year. Growing pains or just a mediocre outfielder long-term?

Paul Sporer: Growing pains for sure. Prospect growth isn’t linear and this is a classic case… so far as he could have a nice second half

Colton: Thanks for the input! I was trying to wrestle Kershaw away instead of Mahle but we settled for him obviously. Hoping he gets dealt to a better team/park before the deadline

Paul Sporer: I meant to mention that re: a trade! That’d be ideal w/Mahle for sure

Homer: I’m staking my opinion that they Kershaw pickoff of Ohtani was a balk…he clearly moved towards the plate.

Paul Sporer: So many left handed pickoffs are such clear balks. We have no clear definition

Where in the world is Char-men San Diego?: I’m still holding strong on Taylor Ward as an impact bat moving forward despite some recent struggles.  I know you had voiced a similar sentiment a week or two ago, but wanted to check if you’re still in that same spot.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! He’s positively icy going into the break w/a ton of Ks, but I wouldn’t even be worried by a bit more regression. I believe in him, though!

E: Based on the Marlins history of relatively agressive pitcher promotion, do you think Eury Perez might get a cup of coffee or potentially a second half call up next year?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! If he dominates at Triple-A in the 2nd half this year, he will 100% be drafted in some redraft leagues (I’m not saying I would do it, but some will because there will be reasonable chatter about a 2023 debut).

Homer: Did you see Julio Rodriguez’s shoes at the ASG?  Confident young man…

Paul Sporer:

 

Seattle Mariners

@Mariners

 

.@JRODshow44’s All-Star Game cleats

19 Jul 2022

He’s amazing!! His success is why people will take shots on guys like him, Witt, Wander. Unproven, but elite prospects. Plenty will fail, but everyone’s chasing the Julio

Dave: Had fun yet tryng to fgure out a Soto trade to the Tigers?  For the Mets its always fun to imangine ways to spend Uncle Stevie’s money

Paul Sporer: LOL yes. It’s not an impossible deal when you bring in Corbin’s money, but it definitely isn’t the right move for the Tigers

Tony: Traded for kebryan Hayes and Yoan Moncada. Hayes’ statcast is red and Moncada had a good run up through the all star break. Do we see turn arounds or do you feel like it will be more of the same?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure we see a power explosion from Hayes, but I was drafting him for speed & AVG this year and I can see that .251 headed upward in the second half! I’m kinda out on Moncada at this point. He doesn’t run, doesn’t have much of an AVG, and his power isn’t terribly impressive.

Christoph: Currently have K Hayes as my third baseman. Would getting Bregman be a massive upgrade or just a moderate one?

Paul Sporer: Probably moderate because of the SB dropoff

Don’s Late-Inning Decision: best guess at saves for Miami ROS.. is it Tanner Scott? Floro? Someone else on the team, somewhere else?

Paul Sporer: I think it’ll change after the deadline. So it kinda depends who is still around. If Zach Pop could miss a few more bats with his stuff, he could be a fun longshot. He has a 63% GB rate, but just 19% K.

Roy Hobbs: Are the days of Austin Meadows being fantasy relevant over?  Injuries have just crushed him.  Is he droppable in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Definitely droppable right now. He may get back to health but until then, it’s bleak. And then with Paredes popping off, it’s looking pretty lopsided for TB.

Homer: Loved watching Manoah pitch in the ASG…seems like a fun dude, and a great pitcher…

Paul Sporer: Arguably the best mic’d up moment ever

Pedro: Have seen conflicting opinions about Giolito’s likelihood of bouncing back. Where do you come down? Advanced metrics seem to favor a rebound thx

Paul Sporer: I feel like he’s already in the midst of his bounce back over the last four. There wasn’t just 1 thing to fix, but rather inconsistent command throughout his arsenal that varied start to start. Outside of a tough final inning v. DET, he’s been nails lately and I like him for a strong 2H

R: Hunter Renfroe ROS outlook? Droppable in 12 team leagues? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: He’s back from the IL, I wouldn’t cut him. .250 with 15 HRs rest of season is still 12-tm viable

DubsIn6: Back to Grandal…an immediate pickup or given his 1st half, wait-and-see?

Paul Sporer: I’d pick him up right away

Bob: Do you think Lance McCullers will be effective when he comes back?

Paul Sporer: There’s a good chance, yes. I would definitely take a shot on him where available

Dan: True or False? The Orioles could have afforded to sign Robbie Ray and Freddie Freeman. True or False? If they had signed both of them they  would have a better record than the Blue Jays right now.

Paul Sporer: Well yeah, all teams can afford ANY player (literally any… no team is actually poor), buuuttt we can’t just take what Baltimore has done year to date and plop Ray/Freeman atop that to say they’d be in a certain spot. Obviously those two would help without a doubt, but I don’t think they really messed up by not making those signings. I think they will get into the market this offseason as their window begins to open

James: What do you think Jeter Downs becomes? Best case scenario long term?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure this all-or-nothing approach (~50% FB rate, ~30% K) will succeed especially considering he doesn’t really have premium power. Best case in terms of hitting is like late-career Carlos Gomez? .238/.313/.398, 15-18 HR/SB

Need hitting: My pitching has been pretty decent but my hitting brutal. Considering an offer for Soto and can offer McClanahan or Alcantara (also have Woodruff and Castillo behind those 2). Given those 2 have been so, so, so good I’d hate to give them up. I’m always so bad at judging trades. Would either of those for Soto be fair? League is 12 team, 7×7 with the 4 extra categories being OPS, TB hitting and K/9 and QS pitching.

Paul Sporer: One of those aces should at least get the conversation rolling for Soto and I think it’s worth pursuing. Woodruff looks great since returning from the IL and Castillo has been great, too, so you’re still going to have 3 big arms atop your rotation.

Houzer: Feels like Hunter Greene is a tweak away from being a league winner

Paul Sporer: It’s a lot more than a tweak. There’s a good bit of development to be done, but there is incredible upside!

Matt: Any concerns with Acuna slugging around .420 through 270 PA?

Paul Sporer: Nah, he has more than made up for it w/his 20 SBs, too

Dale Murphy: Is Mike Harris II just a bonafide star at this point?

Paul Sporer: Not yettttttttttttt. He’s been amazing, but we have a tendency to crown players too early in the internet age. Let’s enjoy the ride, but don’t be surprised if there is a firm regression as the league gets a deeper book on him. The SBs should sustain his value even as the 124 wRC+ regresses

Stressed: Max Muncy is still my bench bat. What am I doing wrong? Is he a cut (10 team mixed H2H points 2 batter bench spots). Alternative on the wire include Grisham, HS Kim, Nick pratto, Darick Hall, evan longoria, eddie rosario, are any of these people worth a spot?

Paul Sporer: I just can’t see anything but the elbow at play here. I’d move on in 10s

M.F. Luder: What are your thoughts on Alex Kirilloff?

Paul Sporer: Big fan! He will go as far as the wrist allows. As he develops and with cooperating health, he can be a .300 AVG/30 HR hitter

Houzer: Lance Lynn .. talk me off a ledge please

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure I can. I’m pretty nervous. Best I can do is say I’m giving him a start or 2 out of the break (on my bench FOR SURE) and if things don’t move forward, he gone!

Kumar’s Rocker: Who is your favorite Astro SP not named Verlander for ROS and beyond?

Paul Sporer: I really don’t have much split between Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier, ranking them 37-40-47 in my latest SP rankings. I don’t expect them to spread too far apart in the next update, either!

Homer: How much stock do you put into scouting looks for players once they show success at the MLB level.  Take Braxton Garrett for example…he’s showing some nice stuff right now, but was only ranked 20th as a Marlins prospect with a FV of 40, and a tag of a “crafty back-end starter”?

Paul Sporer: These 8 starts haven’t been gone much beyond that tag yet. This is still in the range of what a 40 crafty back-end starter could do at their best. The biggest change from the current scouting report is that his fastball looks more like a solid-average offering with spikes of plus performance within these 8 starts. I’m buying in, but this is still a tiny sample

Yo: Will Felix Bautista be closing in Baltimore on 8/3?

Paul Sporer: I think he should, yes. Baltimore should absolutely deal Jorge Lopez even if they holding a wildcard spot at the deadline. Their deep bullpen is a major reason they are even doing so well and there would barely be a drop off if Lopez is traded. I think this is an even easier sell than Kendall Graveman was last year for Seattle. A waiver journeyman that you’ve got throwing 100 mph sinkers? Must trade!

Broken Bat: Why not Contreras to Tampa Bay for Brujan?

Paul Sporer: TB would be a good fit for Willson Contreras. They definitely have the pieces to get it done

JWR: Your last ranking of starting pitchers was over a month ago.  When will we get your next ranking?

Paul Sporer: Right after the deadline, so about 2 wks. I would do one at the break, but so many things could change w/the deadline and rerunning the process 2 wks apart doesn’t feel useful to me

Boris: Danny Jensen over Raleigh?

Paul Sporer: Yes. I am a pretty big Raleigh fan, but Jansen has been excellent this year and I’ve got him higher than Raleigh

Billy: Paredes playing time stable in Tampa?

Paul Sporer: If he keeps raking, yes, but there is some risk if he gets too flyball heavy and doesn’t get his OBP north of .300

Buddy: Every writer seems to be screaming to sell Logan Gilbert, but I can’t get a stud bat for him.  How bad will his possible regression really be?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really agree with the sell push. I understand his SIERA is a run higher than the ERA, but I’m not sure I’d even be bothered by a mid-to-high 3s ERA with a 1.20ish WHIP. If you aren’t getting the right return, just hang on

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going, I’m doing an Out of the Park Baseball stream w/Ben Clemens in about 15 minutes at https://twitch.tv/sporer — Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!