Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 19th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Drew: Thanks for your time, hope you’re doing well

Paul Sporer: I am. The All-Star break was nice to get a little breather and gear up for the 2nd half

Paul Sporer: BTW, apologies for no SP chart today. Wasn’t able to get it done last night and it would’ve been too late this morning by the time I could finish it. Thursday’s will be up later tonight.

Guest: With Ozzie Albies doing so well, is there any scenario where he can improve his contract in the off-season?  Could he threaten to go to Japan or sit out like an NFL running back?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t see anything like that. Obviously, it’s an amazing under market deal, but if he’s content with it and happy to be one of the best contracts in the game, then I’m not too worried about it. His value certainly helps w/signing all these deals, too, so if it ends up putting him on 2-3 WS winners, there’s some value in that, too.

Drew: I’m totally with that! Although I admit my enthusiasm was dampened by Keller, Wu, Elder, Iglesias, and Puk all at once

Paul Sporer: The Tuesday Night Massacre was ROUUUGGHHH. I did not escape clean with Wells and Giolito going. Ober snuck a late W to soften the blow somewhat, but maaaan that was brutal. Kudos to you if you avoided it altogether or better yet, had some of the few gems from last night.

Joe: Suwinski or Josh Lowe ROS? 10 team OBP league.

Paul Sporer: Unless you’re desperate for the SBs from Lowe, Suwinski’s OBP gives him the edge here for me

Jim Leyland Palmer: Who is your drop in a 10tm 5×5: Jordan Walker, Starling Marte, Morel. Feel like maybe morel, but I like to keep a very short bench and he does bring value with all those positions. What do you think?

Paul Sporer: Morel is such a tough week-to-week play and I’d value him lower in H2H just for the headache of supreme volatility and with that he’s the cut, especially in a 10-teamer where he or someone like him will be available on the wire. His highs are must-ride so this player type will usually wind up on a few teams in shallow league and if you can’t wait for him to get hot again, he’s the cut.

KJ: Cool to finally see Forrest Wall get the call. Can he carve out anything more than a bench role, or no room?

Paul Sporer: Hard to see where he carves out a ton of PT, but I’m definitely keeping tabs on him bc if he pops, it’s another piece of Atlanta’s lineup. I could maaaybe see speculating in a 15-team or deeper (45-49 in SBs at AAA), but nowhere else right now and even the 15-team scenario should be a reserve spot you can afford a true stash

Thomas: How would you rank the following for power potential balanced by propensity to crater my AVG?  Torkelson, Eugenio, Teoscar?

Paul Sporer: Teo/Tork/Suarez — it’s really close with Teo & Tork. I love what Tork’s doing lately but it’s only been a month of really hitting vR and vL so I don’t want to anoint him too quickly, nor do I want to bury Teo in a down month especially when he dropped a .949 OPS just last month

Sabey Sabes: Met my minimum IP on Sunday and benched my SPs until further notice. Healthy lead in in four pitching cats.

Paul Sporer: Love it! Did you have some of the Tuesday Massacre that would’ve merked you? It was tough to stay clean!

Scoob: Just got Taj Bradley in a trade in a keeper league.  Huge discrepancy between his expected and actual statistics.  How do you personally handle situations where reality and expected reality diverge so much?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: If I believe in their stuff as I do with Taj, I have a pretty wide range of starts w/them. I’ve cultivated a tinge of SP depth that has allowed me to skip some spots w/him but I’m still in on Bradley everywhere as at least a reserve. He has inconsistencies that lead to the big HR and H rates, but you’re just not finding 23% K-BB rates on the waiver wire

AgeOfAwareness: I need one last SP to lineup my playoff plans. Am I good relying on one of Skubal or Woodruff or am I screwed? (12 team cat)

Paul Sporer: I like both rest of season. I know Skubal was knocked last night, but he’s still looked great since his IL return. Woodruff is headed out on rehab and I’m excited for him to get back

Oilcan: How do you feel about Mickey Moniak ROS?  I have Duran, Nootbaar as possible drops if necessary

Paul Sporer: He and Duran aren’t that different, riding crazy BABIPs vR to some nice lines. I’d keep Noot over both as I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet this year. Maybe check upcoming schedules and see what kind lefty SP load Duran and Moniak might face to help the decision between ’em

Justin: Who are a few of your favorite players to watch on a nightly basis?

Paul Sporer: Ohtani of course but he always bears mentioning! Corbin Carroll, Adley Rutschman, the Reds, and a lot of the Padres offense even though they’re underperforming

Guest: I still can’t believe Carroll was totally fine after that swing the other day. but thank goodness! how much risk do you think there is of a <50 game season in the next 2-3 years compared to the normal position player?

Paul Sporer: I think there’s always a decent risk of that with the electric speedsters at premium positions (aka the best players usually). They’re just going to use their bodies more and be in harm’s way, but I don’t think you can really plan around it and of course these are the very best players so it just kinda comes with the territory.

Mrs Abrams: CJ Abrams has a .900 OPS and 11 NSBs over the past 30 days. Has your evaluation of him changed?

Paul Sporer: Did I have a recent negative take on him? I can’t recall. I respect the hot streak and he can turn your SB standing around in a hurry when blazing hot like this. It is BABIP-driven as many hot streaks are, but with his speed, he could be maintaining a higher BABIP than average anyway so it doesn’t necessarily have to dip back to his career .297 mark. I’m good to ride this streak and see where it goes.

Doddy: Had Eovaldi, Musgrove and Nola going for my team last night…all good!!

Paul Sporer: That’s amazing!

v2morlew: In a national league only league.  Have to plug a hole a 3B for a bit.  How much playing time to you think Nick Senzel actually gets going forward?

Paul Sporer: Seems to be on the short side of the platoon so check the schedule for lefties. They have 2 this weekend but currently none penciled in for next wk

Chase Is On: Thoughts on Tyler O’Neill ROS? Is something like 10-30-30-10 a reasonable projection, assuming he really does have an everyday role?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure I’d bet on him to run that much. Could see some self preservation given how much he’s been injured. The other numbers all seem plausible with a full-time role… I wonder if that will be on another team

Seth: Will Schwarber end the year hitting over .200?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go yes as that .200 BABIP is insanely low even for him

bob: which of these 2sps would you trade away in a pts league: Tyler Wells or Bailey Ober?

Paul Sporer: They’re pretty similar, so I’d check upcoming schedules. Probably lean toward Wells because he’s been great this yr and plays in the AL East v. Ober in the AL Central (though there are fewer divisional gms this yr), although RIGHT NOW might not be the best moment with Wells bc he was rocked last night, lol

Rickey: Suwinski, Kerry Carpenter, LaMonte Wade and Tristan Casas… which two do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Hitting on some of my faves there! I know I keep recommending, but I think it’s the best way to go when things are really close so I’d check out the schedules and see what kind of potential lefty workload each of them has coming up bc a few of them don’t even play vL but they are all markedly worse v. them in terms of production

Paul Sporer: I lean toward Suwinski and Carp slightly, but I was huge on Casas coming into the year and he’s been on a heater lately, looking a lot better than he did early on. And who doesn’t love Late Night LaMonte?

Medium Chungus: Where do you think Curtis Mead plays in TB? What is his long-term position? 1B or is his best position DH?

Paul Sporer: Probably 1B/DH

Paul Sporer: You know how the Rays love to move guys around day to day so he’ll probably even dabble at 3B/2B randomly… although, without the shifts it’s harder to hide glove liabilities

Guest: Among Gavin Williams, Skubal, and Woo, how do you rank them in term of being kept for next year. 10 team H2H cats. Already keeping Strider, Jordan Walker, CES, Westburg. We get 5 total

Paul Sporer: I lean Skubal/Woo/Williams off the top of my head. If Woo can shave his HR rate down like Skubal has done, they’re really close

Jim: Really struggling to hold on to Javier in a shallow roto league but don’t want to look like an idiot if he turns it around. Would you drop him for Lynn, Ober, Detmers or Bradish? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Down to cut Javier for pretty much any of those guys with my latest SP rankings showing exactly where they rank: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-july-starting-pitcher-ranki…

Sabey Sabes: Skubal, Manoah, Hunter Brown and Taj. Now have a 3.18 ERA vs other guy’s 7.38

Paul Sporer: I might have an 8.13 for the wk right now lol

equist: Would you rather pick up C Sanchez, next games Mil. and Balt., or Schmidt, next games K. City and Balt.?

Paul Sporer: Maaan they are really close for me and those matchups aren’t great at splitting them bc Milwaukee is brutal vL and KC sucks vR while they both face a decent Baltimore team (mid pack vR and vL)… I have Schmidt higher so that’s the lean, but I want underscore that I really like Sanchez for the 2H

Guest: Rodon vs LAA or Verlander vs CWS?

Paul Sporer: JV

Paul Sporer: I’m still not wanting to face the Angels even w/out Trout

Guest: finally admitting defeat and going to cash in my end of contract guys. Have Mclanahan, Muncy, Clase, and Springer.  I know leagues differ but this a basic 5×5 12 teamer that is competitive and close at the top. what kind of return would you aim for? doubt one team will take them all but I should be aiming for high end prospects. any range come to mind?

Paul Sporer: If you’re king making someone w/a few of those guys, you need to get a Jackson of some sort – Chourio, Holliday, or Merrill

Warren: 10 tm 7×7 (OPS, TB, BAA,QS)

I traded Sandy and Starling for Luzardo and Correa…what say you Mr Sporer?

Paul Sporer: Dig it! I probably have to stop expecting Sandy to turn a corner as it’s just not happening. A big 3-R HR from Gorman today has him with 4 ER through just 2 IP

The Angels excluding Ohtani: What’s wrong with me?

Paul Sporer: Injuries are ravaging them. Trout, O’Hoppe, Drury, Urshela, Rendon, Neto (just back). And yeah, every team gets injuries, but they don’t have a ton of depth. They also absolutely MELTED in a tough schedule run to open July: 1-2 v ARI, 0-5 at SDP/LAD, 1-2 v. HOU

Paul Sporer: I do think a healthy iteration of the team would still be good, but we’re not there and it’s hard to see how they make major improvements at the deadline given their light system

Kleo: Betts has played the last three games at 2b… is he slowly becoming their starting 2B?

Paul Sporer: It’s actually been the last 5 and 8 of 10, so yeah it seems like it

Joe Ryan: Who do you prefer rest of season:  Me or Aaron Nola?  QS instead of Wins.

Paul Sporer: Definitely Joe Ryan — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-july-starting-pitcher-ranki…

Salty: Will Yu Darvish just switch dugouts when the Padres face the Rangers in a couple of weeks?  If not, do you think he gets moved somewhere else?

Paul Sporer: That’d be really interesting. But I’m not so sure he’s super movable with 5 yrs left on his deal

Jim: Our old friend Trent Grisham is showing some signs of life the last month (.983 OPS, 4 HRs, 4 SBs). You think this is just a hot streak or is it time to buy back in? If SD sells some pieces, maybe he moves up in the order?

Paul Sporer: Interestingly cooking vL, too. I’m a sucker for him so I see some viability in deeper formats and at least worth a watchlist in 12s

Paul Sporgrrr: Starting Hendricks today?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m fine with that. If we’re not starting him at home v. WAS, then he’s just a non-factor (and that may be the case for some of y’all, but I’ll take the shot)

Dave: I like CES over Spencer Steer at the beginning of the year.  What should I expect from Steer going forward, is he a half year wonder or really legit?

Paul Sporer: Big Steer fan coming into the season, but definitely didn’t see a .192 ISO so I can totally see CES as the better power guy of the 2. I’m curious to see what kinda K rate CES puts up. But yeah, I think Steer is legit and can drop another 10 HR and 6 SB with a .260s AVG

Grey: Is Gimenez coming around a bit? Still have some keeper appeal in a deep mixed?

Paul Sporer: Yes and definitely. 20/30/.283 pace in his L40 gms

Verlander: Am I a top 15 SP ROS?

Paul Sporer: Very close: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-july-starting-pitcher-ranki…

Grey: Can we all breathe a major sigh of relief with Michael Harris?

Paul Sporer: While I faded him at a 2nd round price, I didn’t think he was a sub-.500 OPS guy like we saw through 38 games. Since then, he’s at .997 with 7 HR and SB (34 full season pace). His surge is a little hidden by his composite numbers still being below average so you could feasibly get him at a little lower price than he should be. But yes, those with him that were super concerned have been through the worst of it. Even as he regresses off this hot streak, his power and speed keep him fantasy relevant

Grey: Are you still in on Andrew Vaughn Lomg term? He’s stuck in mid

Paul Sporer: I am, but I can’t pretend another 400 PA of mid doesn’t lower my outlook on him some. Compare to someone like Tork who I viewed similarly coming into the year but Tork’s power is coming on strong looking great of late

Grey: Is Brendan Donovan more or less living up to the preseason hype?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! Already 2x more HRs than last yr in fewer PA with a 4-pt. better AVG, all while being a Swiss Army Knife of eligibility. He’s not a “league winner” (though few are and that term is heavily overused), but he’s a fantastic mid-roster guy that really makes roster construction easier while also delivering plenty of production

Craig: I know you’ve been anti-Snell for a long time but it is nice to see him rebound so well this year. Think he keeps it up?

Paul Sporer: Wait, what? I’ve been pro-Snell for quite some time.

Paul Sporer: When Snell’s command is off, he can really go off the rails with tough starts, but it’s always soooo hard to cut him because we know the upside is a must-start guy. His ERA is riding hot at 2.71 and I see him for more of a 3.50 the rest of the way with a ton of Ks

Phil: Did I miss Edward Cabrera in your rankings? Where does he go?

Paul Sporer: Didn’t realize he was due back so soon. I tried to rank guys close to returning from injury, but missed him! He probably would be in the 70s just eyeballing it right now

Guest: would Darvish be xxx or -xx at TOR on today’s chart?

Paul Sporer: xxx – I have a lot of trust in Darvish so I rarely find sits w/him

Taxis for Cab: Would you drop guys like Elder, Gavin williams, or a bryce Miller for Edward Cabrera in a shallower points league?

Paul Sporer: I’m fading Elder a bit in the 2H, seeing as more of a team streamer than must-start, but I don’t think I can cut him. Cabrera’s command just makes him such a difficult bet start-to-start

Your SP Rankings: It seems like absolute lunacy to see Sandy Alcantara and Kyle Bradish back-to-back in a SP rankings but I sadly agree with you. Any hope of seeing a sub-4 ERA from Sandy RoS or is low-mid 4 more likely?

Paul Sporer: Love me some Kyle Bradish! But yeah as I mentioned earlier, I reallyyyy want to see Sandy turn a corner and look more like last yr, but I can’t just wish it true so I’m inclined to see more of a high-3.00s/low-4.00s from him rest of yr. Of course the Marlins are actually doing pretty well this yr and yet he’s 3-8!!

Colton: Mozeliak said in a radio interview this week that if the Cardinals come out firing these next two weeks they might end up buying at the deadline. Have any thoughts on the lunacy of the front office/coaching staff this year?

Paul Sporer: Really not a big Oli fan. But yeah I’ve been super reluctant to bury the Cards until seeing that final nail in the coffin bc they’re a couple weeks of Devil Magic away from being riiiight in the mix for the division.

Clarke Horace: Who do you like better ROS: Ed Cabrera or Detmers. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Easy Detmers! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-july-starting-pitcher-ranki…

Kevin: Can Kerry Carpenter maintain an 800+ OPS RoS?

Paul Sporer: I believe so. His power is legit and if he can continue to succeed at home, I can easily see .800+

Charlie: I could use more starting pitching. Is Ezekiel Duran for Tarik Skubal a fair offer? I have J Turner at third and Seager at short.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t have any issues there

Nickles: are you worried about C. Javier?

Paul Sporer: A bit, yes

KCbbq: Are you expecting any regression in Tyler Wells and Jon Gray rest of season?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think we can see some from both, with Wells’ hitting last night. I’m still starting both in most situations (Wells ahead of Gray for sure) but I don’t just expect 1st half carbon copies

equist: Your advice convinced me to keep Snell this year when he was walking everyone.  They must be confusing you with Mason. Thanks for all you do.

Paul Sporer: Ah ok, Justin is anti-Snell! That does make more sense.

equist: Sitting Cobb at Cinn?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m trying to fade Cincy these days

Guest: whoa, the Pirates won today. Bednar save party!

Paul Sporer: Big late inning rally!

Billy: With Tyler Oneil returning, him or Seiya?

Paul Sporer: I’m still on Seiya, even after the icy June

Bobby: Mountcastle or Naylor ROS?

Paul Sporer: Definitely Naylor, he’s been amazing this yr. I got hung up on his RBI rate being out of sorts (just an insane total given his team’s lineup) and almost called him a 2H fade before Justin set me straight yesterday. He then went out and popped 2 HR last night!

I Used to be Mel Clark: Where is Hunter Greene on your ROS SP?

Paul Sporer: Not back til August, too far out to predict right now

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!