Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 24th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thank you for coming out!!

Richard: Paul it’s 2024 not 2023!!!!

Paul Sporer: And I put the podcast pic on the tweet. Y’all, I’m losing my mind!! https://twitter.com/rotographs/status/1750231733855740220

Kyle: Was surprised to hear you used to smoke cigs- how’d you quit? Was it rough?

Paul Sporer: Some chest pain during softball was the turning point and did a pretty solid cold turkey run after that. Maybe 2-3 more in the following week, but otherwise done. Kinda crazy that I even started bc both my parents did/do and I never liked it. Just got caught up w/it as a freshman in college bc I liked the people who hung out in the smoking area, lol. The dumbest reason to start something like that, but thankfully got out before it had too much of a grip on me bc I know quitting is NOT easy

Loop: Hi Paul, Thoughts on Hoskins landing in Milwaukee?

Paul Sporer: I love it! The park move doesn’t really hurt at all as Milwaukee still favors righty power, too, and I’m just not sure they are going to get rid of Burnes and Adames like many believed at the start of the offseason. Even without Woodruff, this still looks like a team that can compete in the NLC

Eric: Any chance Franco returns to MLB? Or do you think he’s done? I have him for cheap in an ottoneu league and not sure what to do

Paul Sporer: It’s looking pretty heinous so it seems like he’s cooked, good riddance too as these revelations come out

Pumpsie Green: Does Brayan Bello take a major step forward this year?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say for sure, of course, but I am a fan! Really liked watching him last year and definitely think there is more to his game, especially as he gets more comfortable as a big leaguer. I think there is strikeout upside and if he can hone the command to cut those HRs while adding Ks, then a huge breakout is certainly on the table

Don Von Handburger: You should write an article about Miami’s SP Perez and title it “Summons for Eury Duty”

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL that’s fantastic. I think we can definitely get Nick Pollack of PitcherList to do that at the very least!

A.: I’m asking everyone, and it’s about 50/50 so far. Bibee or Ragans as a 16th rd keeper in a 12 team mixed 6×6 (standard plus holds). Other keepers are Bryce Harper (6), Gallen (8) and Eury (16). Can only keep 4.

Paul Sporer: I’m fully aboard the Cole Train and can even make a case as the conductor with my preseason interest! (Not that I had him becoming one of the best SPs in the 2H last year like he was, but I did say keep tabs on him as he got his velo back)

Kyle: FYI the “Change” column on your SP rankings doesn’t appear to be working. Alongside Paxton it should show some number there but still is at zero.

Paul Sporer: Dangit, my b. I’ll get that cleaned up post-chat.

Paul Sporer: More SP writeups in the next update, too (prob early next wk)

Dingle: Hi Paul! For my last dynasty roster spot, do I want Kirilloff or mR. McMahon? Thank you.

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna go McMahon. He has kinda rounded into a boring-but-solid bat in Colorado but three straight 150+ gm seasons is very appealing especially when compared against someone like Kirilloff who has battled health throughout

Don Von Handburger: My league might switch to SV+HOLDS this year.  Do you think it is more fun or less?

Paul Sporer: I like that it gives more RPs viability and makes chasing SVs less of a grind/luck of the draw. I’m definitely fine w/HDs in leagues

Scared of trades: Should I try to move $6 Bobby miller or $15 zac Gallen in a keeper for $6 Gunnar Henderson?

Paul Sporer: If I could do it for Gallen, I’m definitely in. Nothing against Gallen, but I’ll take a $6 rising superstar in that case for sure. I love Miller and think he has legit ace upside so I’d much prefer to keep him. If your trade partner will only do it for Miller and you’re deadset on getting Gunnar, I totally get it. All things equal, hitters are the better long-term investment so I can understand going for him!

Josh M: Does Bauer sign with mlb this year? or ever?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so this year, but I could see maybe next year. I’m not sure what the feeling is in front offices rn. There will be a blowback regardless, it’s a matter of whether or not the team thinks the talent is worth the heat

Jordan: Think Crochet has potential as a SP this year or is that more of a future seasons play?

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if he made noise at SP this year, but could see him becoming something down the line. He has an insane arm!

Jim Leyland Palmer: I am pursuing a trade for Bo Bichette this offseason. Outside of the steals, which aren’t really my concern at the moment, do you see him as a pretty steady bat for next handful of years? Any reasons for concern about the core hitting skills?

Paul Sporer: No major issues on his bat. Yeah, it’s just the SBs that I don’t trust, but if you’re good on that, then I think you can confidently buy the bat!

Matt: Was I looking at somehting wrong? Pulled up your updated SP ranks and didn’t see a writeup for Stroman or a ranking for Fedde even though that was outlined in the changelog

Paul Sporer: … one moment, lemme look

Paul Sporer: ok check now, sorry about that

Paul Sporer: I’m ALLLL over the map today. Messed up the chat date, put the wrong pic, and put up old text for the SP updates, lol. Might as well just go back to bed!!!

Richard: ***Please hold as Paul takes out his dogs***

Paul Sporer: A chat veteran! Sees a 5+ min lull and knows the pups needed a bathroom break!

A.: what are your expectations for Zac Gelof this year?

Paul Sporer: I think he will be solid, but I’m close to the projections that have him more of a 20/20 as opposed to extrapolating his insane 2023 run and projecting something like 30/30. If I were to veer from the projections, it’d be the steals with something like 17ish HRs and 30 SBs. Modest AVG/R/RBI due to park and team context. His 134 ADP isn’t egregious but probably a little higher than I’d like to pay

Guest: A followup to DVH: As pitching usage has changed it’s really mucked with fantasy categories… we’ve gone to SAVOLS from Saves and long ago from W to QS… but even the QS is dying with many SPs limited to 2x thru the order. What are your preferred pitching categories?

Paul Sporer: Yeah QS used to be a great answer to lowering of Ws, but now even those are becoming more sparse. I still mostly play traditional 5×5, but I don’t mind stuff with Holds or QS or stuff like that. I gotta be honest, I don’t mind straight up IP as a category, too, as SP IP counts drop more and more

Jake: How would you value Jacob DeGrom in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Not terribly well. More of a luxury gamble or a shoot the moon lottery ticket

Sean: I’ve seen a couple folks pick MacKenzie Gore as a 2024 sleeper but he’s ranked as a stream for you. Not as optimistic, I take it?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine even those ranking him as a sleeper see as a streamer to start with the chance to be something legit. I totally see the path to a breakout and I’ll have more on him when I do the write ups for the Streamer section. Definitely a viable late round target

Bart: I didn’t see T Wells or C Holton added either.  Am I missing something?

Paul Sporer: Check now: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings

Daro: Josh Naylor or Vinnie P as my 1b keeper in an OBP SLUG league?

Paul Sporer: I’m going Naylor. I really do like both, but I’m a little nervous about Vinnie P’s power this first yr back off the shoulder issue. Naylor has his own injury issues that have hindered him recently, but I believe in his power more this year

Richard: Do you plan to wake up early to watch the LAD-SD series in Asia?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely!!!

Bob: Whats are your opinions on the Tyler O’Neill to the red sox trade.

Paul Sporer: I quite like it. TON is a player I like, but always want to buy low on bc of his health and volatility. So now that he’s back in the 200s pick range, I’m buying back in. It didn’t seem StL mgmt really liked him either so I’m glad he’s out of that situation and hopefully he can flourish with Boston. Park and lineup are certainly nice, if the health cooperates, he can be a stud again!

JR: 15 Team Roto/ I can keep one out of Tanner Scott or Yainier Diaz, both for $10

Paul Sporer: I’m going Diaz there. Even with it looking like Scott should be the closer in Miami, I still prefer a big bat $10 C!

Richard: Do you think MLB should subsidize contracts of superstar players so that small market clubs like Pirates/Cubs/Reds/Brewers could sign some of these players? Just not sure how some teams can compete with the Dodgers/Yankees of the world.

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so. All owners are rich and while they aren’t all equally rich, the small and mid market teams can afford big deals. They choose not to dole them out and instead use their teams as cash cows

Don Von Handburger: Would I be crazy to draft Cedric Mullins ahead of the likes of Brian Reynolds and Evan Carter?

Paul Sporer: Not crazyyy if you believe in a rebound, but can I ask why? I get the SBs, but I’m just nervous about his bat profile in comparison to those other 2 and I’d rather go for one of them and get SBs elsewhere

Josh M: What do you expect from Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 this year?

Paul Sporer: Some peelback off his big breakout, but essentially the same shape: 13-18 HRs, 25+ SBs. I still think he could have an AVG spike, too. I’m not projecting it, but it’s in the cards and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he dropped a .290+ for us this year

Don Von Handburger: In an OBP league, do you like Tristy Casas this year, or do you LOVE him?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge fan. He was one of my guys last year and it’s hard not to stay bought in on your dudes when they click for you. While his price is up a good bit at 112 ADP, I don’t think that’s out of pocket for someone with legit 30/100 upside. He popped 24 HRs in just 502 PA last year, so 30 is definitely in play with 600+ PA, especially if he builds on his elite second half

Don Von Handburger: Mr. S. Porer: I play in a league that uses OBP and TB instead of AVG and HR.  Does that bump Yandy Diaz up into the realm of being drafted in the 30’s in a mixed re-drafter?

Paul Sporer: In the auction calculator, he jumps from 51st HITTER in standard 5×5 to 37th in setup you mentioned. So maybe not quite top 30 overall player, but I can get behind a top 50 overall pick, especially if you really believe in his 2023 when he was the 25th best hitter — https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/auction-calculator?teams=12&lg…

Paul Sporer: You can tweak the settings and everything with that Auction Calculator following that link

Richard: What was your last text to Justin that contained more than just three words?

Paul Sporer: “yeah nice double whammy move”

Kyle: Let’s say you already drafted Jake Burger in an auction league and now Max Fried has come up. I guess my question is if you’d like Fried with your Burger?

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL, I’m all for making memes outta your team especially with quality players and I definitely don’t mind getting Max Fried in the rotation

Ted: Wrong to think Alvarado can be more than half a closer in Phi? No more top RP’s on the market so likely they will ride with him to start.  Wondering his value as a $5 keeper in a 15 team combined 5×5.

Paul Sporer: Not wrong, no. I will say Jeff Hoffman is one of my favorite specs, but that’s not an anti-Alvarado take, but just pro-Hoffman and my thinking that they could be the lefty-righty 2-headed closer stud for PHI.

Kevin: What do you think the likelihood is that Glasnow pitches 150 innings or more this year>

Paul Sporer: I’m bad at these, but like 20%? I know he’s literally never done it, but that doesn’t mean it’s 0% or anything, at least not in my opinion, but I’m planning for 130 IP and going from there

John: What is your opinion on Oneil Cruz heading into 2024?

Paul Sporer: How is he still a top 100 pick?! I want to love him, but I’m shocked there is virtually no discount coming off the injury washout season. I will say, I’d rather go for him than Elly at pick 22!!!!

Bruce back Live for 2024: Sleeper catcher pls rate in a one C roto : O’Hoppe, Bo Naylor, Campusano.   TY

Paul Sporer: O’Hoppe & Naylor are in the same tier for me and 1 rank apart so I can flip the coin there: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/catcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Mustache Boi: Any thoughts on the dropoff between Framber and Eflin/Bradish in a keeper? I would probably be leaving one of the last two out as my last cut, so thinking about dealing Framber, given there might be net gain.

Paul Sporer: I kinda think I want Framber/Bradish and then maybe dangle Eflin in deals. I’m huge on Framber. That volume is just so good!!

Matt: Any thoughts on Ivan Melendez making his debut this year? Been doing pretty good in the minors, and likely the D’Backs need a 1B/DH.

Paul Sporer: He’s a Longhorn so I keep tabs on him and I’m rooting for him! He should be knocking on the door this year with a chance to debut, but there’s no room at inn right now and he will likely need to improve his plate skills a bit or he could struggle to hit .200 even with all the great power

Ben: Do you think arenado bounces back or if he stays in his 2023 production level?

Paul Sporer: He might not bounce allll the way back, but I expect at least a little uptick and I’m buying the dip. He isn’t cheap, but outside the Top 100 right now and I’m in!

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta head out. Stay tuned for more rankings updates including some more write ups in the SP rankings by our chat next Wednesday. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!