Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 17th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone!

Richard: Awesome SP article, really still working through reading all of it. I did notice that the ADP for Bobby Miller and G-Rod were missing (bottom chart). I do really like that you’ve included those because they add a good comparison dimension.

Paul Sporer: Oh yeah for some reason they didn’t pull in automatically so I added ’em to the tiers but forgot on the bottom list

Kevin: I know you have him ranked higher for this year, but do you think Kirby is worth keeping in a dynasty league with QS and k/9 categories over Skubal?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m definitely fine with that. Love both, especially in a dynasty league

Lance: Do you think Gavin Stone can bounce back this year?  He was pretty bad last year…any reason for optimism this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m not gonna be thrown off completely by 31 crummy IP. He’s still a major prospect and I’m happy to take him in Draft Champions type leagues (50 rd Draft & Hold) near pick-500

Scott TINSTAAPP: Are you heading to Vegas this year again for your ME draft? I sadly can’t swing it this year

Paul Sporer: I’m still debating on Vegas. Definitely playing the Main, but not 100% locked for Vegas

Doo Doo Brown: Last full season he pitched, Walker Buehler was finished SP3. Given the experience with Verlander missing an entire year after finishing similarly and then going back to the same heights, is it a reasonable expectation for Buehler to at least finish as an SP1 (top 20) starter?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure it’s a reasonable expectation. He can definitely get there, but I’m not sure he’s back to 100% immediately upon return. Here was my write up for the SP Rankings:

I considered putting Walker Buehler in the Studs With a Concern tier, but the recent news about suggesting the Dodgers could run a 6-man setup that might include slowly ramping up Buehler early on gave me some pause about how aggressively I’d be willing to buy back in on the 29-year old phenom.

Timmy: Hey Paul, what differences, in general, do you make when preparing for a H2H points league? Mine has 2 pt SBs and 4 pt HRs, so I’m thinking speed is pretty valuable.

Paul Sporer: Yeah the scoring entirely drives my decisions. Because in a standard H2H pts, SBs come down a bit in importance v. roto because you don’t need them, but this league definitely keeps SBs in the mix.

Al Avila: Will Eloy or Jazz ever stay healthy and actually reach their ceiling? Invested in both in a dynasty league and I literally just wait around for the hammy strain or IL notices

Paul Sporer: It’s always hard to say with the guys who suffer injuries consistently, but it’s hard not to keep dreaming on that magical 145+ gm season. Jazz is still expensive to stand by at 77, but Eloy is down to 229 so it’s a bit more affordable to stay bought in. Jimenez did drop to UT-only, though, with just 14 gms at OF which does make him a tougher fit. I stilllll think Eloy can be a .300/30/100 guy. He dropped 31 in the Rabbit Ball 2019 season but only needed 504 PA so getting there in 600+ in the dream healthy season isn’t hard to see

Tim: Harper or E. De La Cruz for fourth and final keeper in a roto league?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s tough. While I am suspect of Elly DLC at his 2nd round ADP because he is so volatile, I can definitely lock him in as a 4th keeper. His upside is SO rich so as long as he doesn’t struggle so much he’s sent out, he should consistently bring pwr/spd.

Jose: Do you think that Brian Abreu will over take Pressly in the 9th inning this year for Houston?

Paul Sporer: He certainly could. I have some nerves about Pressly going into his age-35 season. I don’t want him to be my #1 closer for sure. It’s more health than skills, but diminished health will affect the skills. Abreu would be the next man up and feels like the right guy to speculate on

Bob: What is the appropriate way to vent frustration over someone having a 3Hour 45Min average pick through 12 rounds of a DC? I understand taking your time but when you’re picking 2 picks apart and it takes close to 4 hours to make both it just seems intentional

Paul Sporer: Is it Heberling? lol. But yeah that’s brutal. Obviously, you’re allowed 4 hrs so there’s not really anything to be done, but to have 2 picks that close and still take that long if the person on the wheel is getting 2 in quickly, that’s pretty rough. I understand if someone doesn’t have access alll the time as some jobs are no phone, no exceptions, but you can def Auto during the day to keep things going

Tony: Every year I think this is the season Ke’Bryan Hayes breaks out.  He was awesome in the 2nd half last year…this is the year be finally becomes a stud…right??

Paul Sporer: I’m still bought in. Love the 2H power we saw, so no reason for me to jump off now. His 167 ADP is plenty affordable, too

Stephanie: I offered Skubal for Webb and got an angry rejection letter. Was that a fair offer?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s out of pocket at all and certainly doesn’t merit an angry response. That said, I totally understand someone with Webb having zero interest in Skubal. Webb is an established workhorse and that kind of volume is very valuable. Skubal’s upside could be next level, but it’s still upside that hasn’t quite manifested yet.

Guest: Bounce back for Trea Turner this year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d say he already turned the ship around when the fans outpoured their support as he was really floundering. He looked like the Trea we know and love from that point forward. I’m happy to take him in the top half of the first round.

Guest: Soto hitting 3rd in the line up for NY according to Roster Resource, is Rizzo enough protection or do you think they may move things around and try Soto hitting some in the 2 hole?  I am leaning towards a big return in the power numbers for Soto hard to believe he is only 25 years old.

Paul Sporer: Rizzo was amazing the first 2 months before his head injury that went undiagnosed for the summer. If he’s back to 100%, he should be a solid plus bat. I believe “protection” happens more in front than behind meaning DJLM and Judge consistently getting on base will make improve Soto’s outlook more than the perceived threat of Rizzo/Gleyber. All in all, I’m fully in on Soto in NYY. I do think there’s a world where he intentionally pulls the ball more to take advantage of his new park

Eh?: Why aren’t the emojis available in your chats? I always enjoyed using them in other chats

Paul Sporer: Someone(s) spammed ’em and ruined it for everyone (was it you? 😏)

tumtum: do you prefer pablo lopez or george kirby next year?

Paul Sporer: Kirby for me: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Doug: In a points league, would Strider be the first pitcher you’d take?

Paul Sporer: Yes he is

Vince: Hi Paul – I haven’t read any of your content yet, but I listen to all of your podcasts from RotoGraphs and I just want to say I love what you have to say and will hopefully be getting into your rankings here shortly. Thanks for everything you do!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for listening! Hope you enjoy the rankings, too

Hector: Hi Paul, interested in your thoughts on keeping a high priced star vs an inexpensive regular. Example- 5×5 11 team Al only roto. $32 Ramirez or $2 LeMahrue or $28 Arozarena or $1 Kepler. Lock in star or keep regular and use savings to buy a different star?  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s close. I was very heartened by Arozarena’s 5 pt BB% spike to 12% last year. Coming into last yr, I was worried by his plate skills (24% K, 7% BB), but 24%/12% is much more palatable as he heads into his age-29 season. With that, I’m ok committing the $60 for the 2 studs if you’re comfortable making them your cornerstones on offense. I can certainly get behind Ramirez and one of the cheap guys (probably Kepler), but it’s hard to let go of star talent in deeper formats like an 11-tm AL only

Al Avila: Does Max Fried get dinged a bit for being just super consistent and without great K/9? I like having him but don’t ever love having him

Paul Sporer: I think his health is probably a bigger concern than his K rate given just 78 IP last year. He doesn’t always bring a top tier K%, but he’s in the 23-24% range which totally works if he gets back to 180+ IP

Greg: Can you help with my last keeper? You can keep players forever in these rounds: Max Scherzer (5th round), Nate Eovaldi (6), Brandon Pfaadt (9), Shane McClanahan (10), Yu Darvish (13), Pete Crow-Armstrong (25), Roman Anthony (25), AJ Smith-Shawver (25), Junior Caminero (25), Heston Kjerstad (25), Colt Keith (25).

Paul Sporer: That IS tough. Even given the risk associated with injuries, I think I want to ride out the McClanahan injury and keep his ace upside in the 10th round, especially with the keep forever. The other Ray, Junior Caminero is probably my 2nd pick.

Tony: Got any super deep pitching targets for deep best ball points leagues? 40 rounds. Essentially every no-doubt SP has real value.

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Timmy: Years ago, I mentioned how much I appreciate that you frequently repeat player names when discussing them on the pod. You still do it and I still appreciate it. Thanks! Makes for much easier listening without replaying/rewinding.

Paul Sporer: Happy to help! As an avid pod listener myself, I didn’t want our show to be one where you lose track of the player bc you’re busy doing something else while listening so I’ll shoehorn it in sometimes just to keep from going too long without a mention!

tumtum: Pasquantino is getting sleeper love from a few guys. Given his right shoulder was surgically repaired, doesn’t that seem like a huge risk for a lefty bat when following through the swing? Anyway, how would you approach the first season back for guys coming off shoulder surgery? My conventional thought is the power will be down. Is there something else to it?

Paul Sporer: Totally agree the shoulder adds risk with Vinnie P. I’m generally OK with the 178 ADP but if I’m being honest, I’ve passed him over in all my drafts so far. I like a lot of the guys in the early 200s ADP range so he’s been easy to pass

Paul Sporer: I love Vinnie P’s plate skills and could see an AVG surge come to counter the potential power dip

Greg: Today Jake wrote that he talked himself into a low cost Zack Littell, would you keep a $3 Zack in a 16 teamer despite the bearish projections?

Paul Sporer: Who are the other options? I have no issue w/him at $3. He’s not in the Rasmussen/Springs tier for me, but I was intrigued by his run last year and that price can’t really hurt you even if he flops

Rasta: Matt McLain or Nolan Jones over the next couple years?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge McLain fan. Jones really surprised this year and that .401 BABIP played a big role. Despite his residence in COL, we can’t bet on that to continue which makes that 30% K rate loom large on his AVG. McLain just feels like a future pwr/spd stud. He also plays in a great park and while he did have a 29% K rate in his MLB sample, his history suggests he’s more of a low-20s K rate (lower SwStr rates than Jones, too).

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, great chat. I’ll get a marathon one in here soon (2+ hrs) as we trudge through the winter. Hope everyone is staying warm… it’s creeping back up here in Austin, TX and we’re supposed to be back in the 60s by week’s end. Thanks so much for coming out, have a good one y’all!