Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 10th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Happy New Year (cutting it close on the 10th day of the year, but I didn’t do the chat last week so I’m going with it)!!

Paul Sporer: I’m close to finishing the SP ranks with commentary. I did the Catchers and Shortstops as well so it’s taking a bit of time, but we didn’t want to just throw a standard list-only post up before these came out. I know I’ve been promising SP rankings for a while, but they’re v close.

Scott TINSTAAPP: Just started my first draft of the year, a slow DC…LFG

Paul Sporer: It’s that time of the year!!!

Scott TINSTAAPP: Do you like Woo and do you have concerns about how he’s virtually FB only?

Paul Sporer: I understand where that characterization comes from, but it is 3 distinct fastballs w/the 4-seamer, sinker, and cutter. And he has a slider and changeup that could improve. He’s in the 50s for me part of a group called The Next Wave. I like him.

Kyle: Do you have a date for the SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: Tonight or tomorrow. I won’t be able to write up everyone like the SS and C rankings before publishing, but I want to get another good handful written before publishing and then I will fill in more write-ups in the coming weeks both of guys I just didn’t get to yet and then of course those who have their outlook change for whatever reason

Guest: Can Giolito and Cease find their groove again in new environments?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. Fenway isn’t some homer haven that will harm Giolito. He did just fine in Chicago when he was on and that’s a hitter-friendly park. He needs to keep the ball in the yard and he can be a 10-team guy again. Cease is an easy buy for this year after the tough 2023. I’ll take the discount. I certainly hope he’s moved out of Chicago, but even if he not, I don’t mind his post-100 ADP

Kyle: Will you make Justin own up to his ridiculous Elly-to-AAA recurring comment on S&tB when the season starts and Elly is playing at SS everday?

Paul Sporer: I mean, I don’t rule out him possibly getting sent out during the season if he struggles like he did down the stretch last year. I don’t think it’s a super likely scenario, but it’s on the table and a part of why I can’t pay the Top 25 price tag.

tumtum: Lawrence Butler hasn’t received much playing time in projections. He pushed Ruiz off the position after he was called up. It seems like a no-brainer candidate to start in CF, right?

Paul Sporer: Part of it is just being on the A’s, but he also isn’t in the Roster Resource starting lineup and while that doesn’t mean he can’t break camp w/the team, a lot of people use RR as their basis for rosters in the winter so that could be another reason why Butler isn’t getting a lot of pub right now. He had a solid 2-level season at AA/AAA and if the A’s do turn him loose, I’d be down to give him a look in deeper formats.

Tony: As both the SS and SP expert, what are your thoughts on me trading my $13 EDLC for a $22 Pablo Lopez? 16 team Ott h2h FG points, and elite SP is at a premium based on keepers

Paul Sporer: I can definitely co-sign that. Pablo is an absolute stud when upright and we’ve finally seen some health to be confident in (insofar as you can be confident in any pitcher’s health which is of course not at all, lol)

Guest: You rocking the knitt stocking cap where you are today?

Paul Sporer: Yes, it’s chilly here! About to get reallyyyyy cold next week, too. Not just Texas-cold, either, but actually cold

Guest: Hi Paul, what are expectations for the new pitchers coming in from the NPB? Quick adjustment period like Senga or good to go day 1?

Paul Sporer: It’s usually a case-by-case basis but I generally have excitement for the guys coming over. I find I’m generally comfortable with their draft prices upon arrival so I’ve had more than my fair share of them on my teams in recent years. Yamamoto is tough because he’s coming in at a PREMIUM price (Top 50 price), but the hype is very understandable so I might even end up with him in a league or two

tumtum: Sophomore slumps usually change people’s perspectives and projections firmly.  But often this is when production breakouts occur. How do you judge when to stay firm or not coming off a sophomore slump?

Paul Sporer: It usually depends what the makeup of the season was… did their skills collapse and they were just overmatched? Or did they have some normal regression paired with bad luck for a superficially bad season that is going to depress their price more than it should? That’s mainly what I’m looking to figure out when investigating a soph. slump

E: Do you think there’s a chance Jackson Merrill can force his way into the lineup in SD out of spring training? Maybe playing third or pushing Kim to third?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say never as we’re in a different era with prospects, but it seems unlikely. He only has 46 gms at AA and it’s not like he just tore up A+/AA last year, either. I’d be surprised if he could do enough to push them to that decision out of spring. Even Volpe, who essentially used a hot spring training run to force himself onto the roster, still had 22 gms at AAA and was a year older.

E: Think Burnes or Bieber get moved before the first half this season?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think there’s still a decent chance one or both are moved this winter

David Howell: Speaking of cold, how much is it worth downgrading outdoor northern-based hitters in drafts for their early-season cool-weather games nerfing their power production?

Paul Sporer: I don’t usually go that deep, but maybe studying the schedule could take a guy or two down a few spots if they have a particularly difficult run of northeast/midwest gms early on and have consistently played poorly in cold weather. It’d be more of a tiebreaker than anything else

Guest: Oneil Cruz back at it on opening day or Bucs will proceed with caution?

Paul Sporer: He is fully recovered and I expect him to be the guy from day 1

Chickie: What’s your take on the crowded Cincy INF situation. Keep hearing India to somebody, but he’s still a Red Leg. CES going to get enough ABs to be keeper worthy?

Paul Sporer: I actually don’t think they should make a trade. It’s a pain for us fantasy dweebs, but it makes sense to have some depth. Obviously if they can get a legit arm for someone like India, I’d be open to exploring it, but I’m not of the mind that they must make a trade. The Candy move was weird from their standpoint, but I love it for him specifically

jj: Imanaga really ‘only’ getting $15mil a year while Mets pay Manaea $14mil a year.

Paul Sporer: I don’t see a huge issue w/that. Imanaga is a 30-yr old coming over from Japan so we just don’t know exactly what to expect. Isn’t his deal also longer than Manaea’s? Can’t just compared 1:1 on the annual if Imanaga’s deal is 4 yrs v. the 2 for Manaea. That said, we don’t know how many years yet so it might be 2 for each… even still, I don’t think it’s wild. Their projections aren’t too far off.

Justin: Who is a player for you going very late that you think we could look back and say “man, how did we miss that” after what should be a 2024 breakout?  For me, it’s Henry Davis.  #1 pick, absolutely destroyed AA and AAA, battled injuries and a bizarre “go play RF even though you’ve almost never done so” situation in the majors, potentially elite SB for the C position.

Paul Sporer: That’s a good one and I can totally see a path to the full scale breakout for Davis and everyone would be kicking themselves for kind of ignoring a former #1 overall (not that that alone guarantees fantasy viability). For me, it’d be Alek Thomas. The playoffs probably ticked his price up a bit, but he’s still post-300 and I totally see a baby Carroll in Thomas

Paul Sporer: brb… refilling my water

tumtum: Grayson Rodriguez’s second-half performance was stellar, but at the cost of his strikeout rates. Do you see this sticking or will he boost his strikeouts?

Paul Sporer: No, I think he boosts the K rate while holding a lot of the 2H gains as he emerges into a stud

Guest: Do you know when the ATC and BAT projections will publish?

Paul Sporer: I do not, but IIRC it’s usually late-Jan/early-Feb, but don’t quote me on that

E: I feel like Bo Bichette is just a small batting average upgrade from Xander Bogaerts, who seems way more likely to steal 10+ more bases that Bichette in a given year. Are we not overestimating Bichette off of one great stolen base year and underestimating Bogaerts because he doesn’t have that big standout tool, but just finds a way to be solid across the board year-in and year-out? I feel like we see the demise of Bogaerts articles every single year. Am I way off here?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think you’re off! I only have them 2 spots apart. They didn’t make the same tier but I have no problem seeing them similarly. And given the price disparity, I have no issue eschewing Bichette for Bogy at a post-100 pick

Us Fantasy Dweebs:

Paul Sporer: I say that lovingly! I, too, am a fantasy dweeb

Guest: “and I totally see a baby Carroll in Thomas” — are we not doing phrasing anymore??

Baby Carrol in Thomas:

Paul Sporer: NTTAWWT

jj: Interesting view of Imanaga v Manaea, I can’t imagine Cubs fans would be happy if it were the other way around, but they seem pretty excited for the Imanaga move.  I’ve read where it might be a 2 year deal with what sounds like vesting options that could bring it up to $80mil (which sounds like 4 years to me)

Paul Sporer: I think it’s just because Imanaga is an unknown so they can dream on him whereas we have a good idea of who Manaea is. At the same time, we often miss out on the upside that veterans have. Would it be that shocking if Manaea found some health and posted a 2021-esque season?

Insert Witty Name Here: Where did you refill your water from? The arctic?

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL I was hoping someone would wonder what the hell took so long. Charlotte followed me which meant she wanted outside real quick so I did that, too

Chip: Woah, where did you go to get that water?

Paul Sporer: lol

Guest: ATC is getting released January 18th according to Ariel Cohen, who is a vetted source for this information.

Paul Sporer: Not suuuure if we can trust that source, but we’ll tentatively go with it lol

Fat Tub of Goo: Wyatt Langford or Evan Carter in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Carter stan. Hard not to love both, so I don’t really argue against Langford but instead for Carter. I just love the plate skills for Carter, I think he will definitely shave down that 32% MLB K rate as he gains experience to go with his plus speed and solid pop.

Ryan: Can Civale be a steady deep league SP this year?

Paul Sporer: For sure! I think there is reason to believe in the results we saw this year. They’re in line with 2021’s but with a 3 pt boost in K-BB rate. Health has been a persistent issue, but I don’t mind taking his skillset around pick-200 and hoping to spike some health

NotWittstanding: Do you see Rodon going into the season as ace-like?  I was offered Imanaga for him and I am wondering if I should accept.  12 Team points league with standard stats.

Paul Sporer: Yeah it all comes down to his health which has been a nightmare throughout his career, but if he has a normal Spring Training and we don’t have any reason to think he’s going to miss time at the outset of the season, then I’m open to paying his post-150 ADP. Of course, a good Spring Training will likely raise that price, but I’m not running away from him even in the 110-125 range.

Tiger blood: Please share your projected SP rotation for the Tigers on Opening Day.

Paul Sporer: I don’t veer from the RosterResource outlook right now: Skubal, Maeda, Flaherty, Manning, and Olson. Casey Mize could certainly push his way in and move Olson to the pen while the signings of Maeda and Flaherty definitely put Sawyer Gipson-Long on the outside looking in. It’s nice to have some depth, though, with those guys plus Wilmer Flores, Joey Wentz, and Alex Faedo.

Sean: How many innings can Tarik Skubal manage this year? His numbers in the second half of last year were phenomenal.

Paul Sporer: I didn’t go searching for this question, it came in 1 comment after the rotation Q. At 27 yrs old with a full season on his ledger (2021), I don’t think the Tigers hold him back much if he’s dominating like we’ve seen since 2022. He has a good chance to set a new career high (currently 149) and might even push toward 180.

Ryan: How confident are you in Yu Darvish? It’s nice to have a non-age related explanation for his 2nd half slide, but will he be healthy and hold up in 2024?

Paul Sporer: I can’t know for sure if he will hold up, but I have zero problems paying his post-200 ADP to find out. A spring rise could push him to something like the 150s area and that would still be affordable enough for me to bet on such a high end talent, even at age-37.

Jung Bong Jovi: Hi Paul!  Merry New Year!  Beef jerky time!  Trying to determine my last keeper.  Already keeping Will Smith (C), Albies, Riley, Tatis Jr, Carroll, T Turner, L Castillo, Gallen, Wheeler, Valdez, E Diaz.  So it’s down to Bellinger, L Gilbert and Verlander.  No rush here, so I can wait to see where Bellinger lands, if that sways you either way.  What do you think?

Paul Sporer: I think I’m leaning Gilbert right now but a great landing spot for Bellinger could push me that way. They’re close enough for that.

Insert Witty Name Here: What are you hoping for in The Show 24?

Paul Sporer: More time to play it! I didn’t play nearly as much 23 as I’d have liked. But I still enjoy the hell outta that game

Salty: Putting health for both aside, what are the % chances Mize outpoints Skubal this year?  I know it’s probably miniscule, but I’m wondering that if he’s finally truly, truly healthy for the first time in awhile, what if his splitter comes back and he becomes the ace the Tigers were hoping when they drafted him?

Paul Sporer: It’s just such a small chance because I don’t think even a breakout Casey Mize really drops the kind of strikeout rate that someone like Skubal will have this year

Chip: What do you make of the Yankees allegedly talking to Stroman. Just due diligence, or something more?

Paul Sporer: They need a starter so he’d be a nice fit in that rotation. I certainly think he can handle the NY scene (he’s from NY and not some shrinking violet when it comes to the spotlight) which seems to always be the first thing we blame if someone doesn’t play well for the Yankees as if that’s the only possible reason! I’m probably only penciling in 140-150 IP, but getting back to his 180 days is on the table and gives him some nice upside.

Porcho Villa: Tough keeper decision coming. Pick just 3 and assume all cost same (12 team 5×5 OBP): Strider, Skubal, Gray-Rod, Casas, Nolan Jones, Tork, Royce Lewis, Y. Diaz, Gelof, Heim, and Jarren Duran. Strider a no-brainer but gets tougher after that.

Paul Sporer: That is a tough choice, but I think I bring Skubal and Lewis along with Strider. Lewis is a gamble w/his health profile, but the upside remains colossal and I’m looking for guys who can be foundational pieces in 12-teamers, especially with my keepers.

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, back to these SP rankings. Feel free to bring all your SP questions next week!

Thanks so much for coming out, have a good one, y’all!