Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 28th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Goood afternoon, y’all!

MochiBetts: Think Jared Walsh can play himself into a spot/trade somewhere this spring?

Paul Sporer: Did he get merked from Texas? He was an NRI for them

Daro: Jhoan Duran or Dw in Williams in dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Pretty much a coin toss for me, so let’s just go w/the guy 3 yrs younger in Duran

Daro: Devin Williams*

Paul Sporer: (no prob, I knew who ya meant!)

Not an LAD Fan: Are you as excited to see Yamamoto debut as me? Think he breezes or do we see some struggles?

Paul Sporer: Extremely excited! I kinda expect it to be breezy, but won’t be worried if it’s bumpy. Wouldn’t fault him for some nerves

MochiBetts: Didn’t get to see the game but he’s 2-5 this spring for Texas

Paul Sporer: RE: Jared Walsh! I’m rooting for him. I was early to his 2021 breakout so I’ve always liked him

Guest: Hi Paul! I have the 4 pick in a points league, daily moves. Mookie Betts and his multi-position availability (2B, SS, OF) or Juan Soto in a contract year?

Paul Sporer: I’ve taken Betts 3x with top 5 picks this winter, so he’s my guy! Especially w/the SS added in

Paul Sporer: (Not against a top 5-6 Soto pick, either, btw, just prefer Betts)

A.: better keeper in a 12-team mixed league, Gallen in the 8th or Bibee in the 16th?

Paul Sporer: Bibee for sure at half the price!

IrishCoffeeDrinker: Why in the name of all that makes sense will SF not sign an SP?

Paul Sporer: LOL, I don’t know. Seems they’re still talking to Snell much to Justin’s chagrin

Heston Kjerstad: How many HRs would I have with 600 plate appearances in baltimore? Projections feel a little light bc of my myocarditis filled past

Paul Sporer: Huuuuge Heston fan, definitely think he could rip 30 if he got 600 PA. Unlikely to get that many PA, but I really like him when he does get a shot

Big Man: Is Manoah the new #1 SP? 10 team league that counts HBP instead of Ks.

Paul Sporer: looooooooooooooool yes

bob: 12 team points league w 9 keepers.  Who would you choose to replace Kyle Bradish as a keeper:  Brayan Bello or Triston McKenzie?

Paul Sporer: Have Bello just a smidge higher due to McKenzie’s health concerns, but they’re a coinflip if you’re willing to bet on McKenzie’s health

Insert Witty Name Here: The pitch clock has gotten shorter, any actionable adjustments you’re making because of this?

Paul Sporer: Nothing right now, but surprised they went that way with it and not adding a second or 3

Guest: 10 team H2H OBP league keep 4 forever. Keeping Acuña, Julio, JRam. Torn on 4th, Harris II or Semien, who you got?

Paul Sporer: Semien for me. I just love our present day Ironman so much

Guest: Do you have any faith that Walker Buehler can return to form by the All Star break?

Paul Sporer: Not a ton, no. I think they’ll slowplay him a good bit to be there for the stretch run and playoffs which is all they really care about

Sadish: Bradish getting hurt messed up my keepers (thankfully they’re not locked in yet).

13tm roto 5×5. Keep three at round value, lose two rounds each season Strider locked in at 10; torn on my other two:
JRAM (1), Gallen (3), Reynolds (5), Kim (13), Bibee (13), William Contreras (13), Steer (13)
If I keep two 13s one is kept at a 12

Paul Sporer: Think I’m still going J-Ram in the 1st and then one of the 13th rounders: Contreras, Bibee are my faves

Adenolith: Any tools you use during the fantasy season (or draft season) you consider essential? For example, Razzball’s Hittertron/Streamonater come to mind for me.

Paul Sporer: Probable SP chart. We’ve got ours at Roster Resource and Rotowire’s is very popular, too — https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid

Guest: How much do you feel like your SP rankings would change by switching W with QS?

Paul Sporer: Not thaaaat much, tbh

Insert Witty Name Here: Read the catcher updates.  Is Adley 1 just because of the PA? Also, do you think JTR is going to keep running or is this the year he starts trending down hard?

Paul Sporer: Volume and upside. A repeat would be totally fine, but there’s plenty of room to grow with AVG, R, and RBI being the best avenues. I think JTR gets double digit SBs and that’s all I really need, even if it’s just 10-12, which would be another dip from his 16 last yr

Josh: Why is Ohtani not a top 5 pick – what should his auction value be set all? Think he’ll run more hitting #2 and does not pitching increase his hitting value this year?

Paul Sporer: People are afraid of him returning from injury and to fill their UT, but I have no problem w/him that high. He’s an absolute god tier hitter and I expect more excellent from him

Guest: The only thing left to post on the “2024 Fantasy Draft Kit” is the “Expert Ranking Tool”. When is going to be published?

Paul Sporer: Late this week or Monday. Ranks are input, getting all the technical aspects handled, so coming v soon!

SP Question: Any preference between Luis Castillo & Kevin Gausman ? 12T Roto

Paul Sporer: Much stronger lean to Castillo. Gausman taking a pretty big hit in my next SP update

Joe: Freddie Freeman – how does Ohtani increase his value?

Paul Sporer: Maybe just more RBI opps

Ryan Raburn: In long term keep forever league, categories, I have Strider and am interested in swapping for a top end OF bat. Looks like potentially Tatis or Tucker could be acquired. All of these three guys are same, very low keeper cost. If you were me, would you be willing to throw additional compensation on top (picks) or if that’s what it takes walk away because they’re too close in value? I prefer bats to keep, seems like the league does as well..

Paul Sporer: I’d really try to hold firm on getting a 1-for-1, but as someone who favors the top end bat over arm in a keeper, I do understand why they might be asking for a throw-in. It shouldn’t be anything too substantial, though

Guest: Nolan Jones has a 43% K rate in Spring Training and has yet to have a hit in any of his seven plate appearances. Are you still targeting him in drafts this year?

Paul Sporer: He’s on my Bust List, I’m not targeting him. He’s a player I like, but I’m splitting the heart from the head and not paying that top 60 price point

Guest: Who’s a 2B sleeper with either power or speed?

Paul Sporer: Gavin Lux, Ryan McMahon are 2 I like a good bit

Guest: Would you rather be a bat boy or a ball boy? 1B coach or 3B coach?

Paul Sporer: Bat and 1B, more chatter time at 1B. Seems like ya gotta focus up more at 3B bc you’re close to scoring

Paul Sporer: Well the player is, not you as the coach, but you know what I mean!

Uncle Kaz: Do you have any guys in the later rounds that you’ve noticed youre not leaving drafts without?

Paul Sporer: Alek Thomas. I’m a long-time fan of his, liked the little power surge in the playoffs, and think his glove guarantees the PT. (BTW, I’m not overrating the playoff power, that’s just a little bonus, not the reason I’m on him)

Guest: What’s a good place for a ‘new’ auction draft person to join a league?

Paul Sporer: Check out Podhorzer’s classified post! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/looking-to-fill-your-league-or-join-…

Brown Frown: When experts recommend to draft Hunter Brown because of all the talent, but his results are hideous. What are they really looking at? Or is it just a shot in the dark?

Paul Sporer: I’m among those reco’ing him and it’s not just a shot in the dark! It’s a bet on him honing his command to cut the HR rate because his 19% K-BB rate is near elite, sitting at 21st among pitchers with at least 150 IP. When accounting for ties, it’s 7th highest. So the skills are absolutely there. I’m willing to bet he cuts his 21% HR/FB rate and thus shaves the 1.5 HR9 en route to a strong season. I loved Brown last year and I’m not moving off him at all

Captain Awesome: Doing a DC now; picking 15/16 (turn) – have you gone pocket aces in any drafts?  How did the build end up looking?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t, no, there’s just so many great hitters that I’m always interested in a stud to go with a pitcher like Cole or Burnes (Strider never makes it)

Guards Fan: What do you make of Elly De La Cruz this year after his slow finish?

Paul Sporer: He’s a bust at his insane price — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-fantasy-busts-sporers-picks/ — the talent is immense, of course, but there is absolutely zero wiggle room with a Top 25 price point and I just can’t do it

DougD: Rankings and draft positions are appropriately factoring in risk, but what do you think Yamamoto’s upside is if everything clicks?

Paul Sporer: To 5 SP for sure

Guest: did you watch skubby snacks pitch today or was that not on tv?

Paul Sporer: twasn’t on TV, just listened a bit

Re: Raburn: Definitely hold strong on 1:1 for Strider/Tatis or Tucker etc.

Paul Sporer: Yeah this is referencing an earlier comment where someone is shopping Strider and could get Tatis or Tucker. Totally fair to hold firm and just not budge on the 1-for-1

Salty: Goldy’s average ADP is currently hovering in the low 70’s.  I feel that’s way too low because I think he might be a dark horse MVP candidate, though maybe I’ve been drinking too much of the Driveline Kool-Aid.  Do you think he’s a real value at that price or is low 70’s (5th/6th round depending on league size) appropriate?

Paul Sporer: I do think he’s a great pick there. I don’t think you’re out of pocket at all.

Guest: I have both Rutschman and Will Smith in a Dynasty League. If I trade Smith, what kind of return should I be looking for?

Paul Sporer: A pretty big one. Top 75-type player for sure

Guest: Late upside pitching in NL only to target?  Won’t have a ton of money to spend as I am keeping multiple players on sa very strong offense

Paul Sporer: Gavin Stone, Bryce Elder, Ryne Nelson, Steven Matz, Wade Miley, Jordan Wicks/Hayden Wesneski — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Ed: Hi Paul – who do you prefer in an AL only: $11 L Gilbert or $22 Pablo Lopez? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Love Lopez, but he’s not 2x Gilbert so I’m definitely running Gilby there

Definitely not a Brand: Because I’d appreciate the heads up – Tmobile’s back with free MLB TV, but you have to register between March 26 and April 1.

Paul Sporer: T-Mobile folks, get signed up!

Justin Mason: Why do you hate Bailey Ober? I have him higher in my ranks

Paul Sporer: You just wait for me to tell you who’s good and then rank them higher than me… just like Daulton Varsho

Insert Witty Name Here: Why does Trea Turner steal 70? He’s too fast to “only” swipe 30.

Paul Sporer: I assume this is why “doesn’t” he and a lot of stealing is player/team choice not just their speed. Ketel Marte never leveraged his elite speed in earlier days bc he seemingly just didn’t want to. There can be a bevy of reasons. Maybe the players batting when Turner’s on get distracted by it, maybe self preservation, maybe manager direction… lots of reasons. But yeah, Turner could drop 50 in a given year if he really wanted to

Totally Not Justin Mason: Favorite person: Justin Mason or your girlfriend?

Paul Sporer: This could really be Justin or Jen asking…. could be on thin ice with an answer here…. ummm… Charlotte!

DD: Have faith in Jazz not being injured? Have him as a potential keeper in two leagues and thinking of picking another dude.

Paul Sporer: It’s impossible to project injuries but if you believe in a player’s skillset, then I’m willing to gamble on health. Jazz is a game-changer type that I’m willing to go in on and hope he can deliver the full season. 67 ADP isn’t cheap, but I do think it bakes in his injury risk a nice bit, especially when you see guys like Elly and Abrams way ahead of him

Mr. Fister: Davis Schneider was fun last year.  Is he to be taken seriously as anything more than a platoon 2b/3 guy this year.  He’s available in our dynasty league’s farm draft and I was wondering if he’s worth a flier over some younger, higher upside prospects.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: No, I’m not really in on him

Paul Sporer: He ran a crazy BABIP and struck out 31% of the time. I appreciate his walk rate, but I’m just not in on him, even at a bargain bin price

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Eminor3rd: H2H 6×6 w/ OPS: you taking Elly De La Cruz or Royce Lewis?

Paul Sporer: That’s close as they both carry extreme risk (though for different reasons) with immense upside. I’m a Lewis guy, so he’s my lean

Günter: Last May or June I asked if Gunnar could finish strong and end up being drafted in the top 50 this year. You said something like it’s possible but highly unlikely. Just pointing out how long the season is.

Paul Sporer: Cool 🙄

Paul Sporer: The eyeroll is because you’d have never brought it up if he hadn’t popped off in the 2H. I never expect to be 100% so I’m just not sure the point of the dunk

Guest: RE: Gunnar – Seems like we hit the “highly unlikely” part. I recommended a friend drop/trade last season.

Paul Sporer: Yeah this was the original exchange:

1:32Swing and a miss: Any signs that Gunnar Henderson will turn his season around and end up going top 50 in 2024 drafts?
1:33Paul Sporer: Signs? No. Is it possible? Sure, but at a very low probability. It would take SUCH a strong run rest of season to that so even w/good signs in his profile, I’d still be skeptical on rallying to Top 50

I misunderstood it, too, thinking it was asking if he’s finish as a Top 50 player on the year, but that’s on me. I guess I wouldn’t have as big an issue with it, if the commenter had made the case for why he would, not just asked me and then waited until I was wrong to try and shove it in my face. Bc again, if he doesn’t, then this is never brought up again

Biscuit: Finding any common targets for spec saves?

Paul Sporer: Brusdar Graterol, Jeff Hoffman, and Shelby Miller have been my faves

Gunnar Henderson: Can’t believe you ever doubted me…

Paul Sporer: I know, Gunnar! You read every week, too, I should’ve believed in you, but you still can’t hit lefties!!

Adenolith: Don’t know if you have any experience, so maybe crowdsourcing answers here, but do you have any recommendations for a slow draft auction platform?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a great answer here, so I will see if anyone else has an idea on this one

Lev: In an OBP 5×5 league, would you keep a hernia-limited Corey Seager over Michael Harris II?

Paul Sporer: I would, but I’ve always been a huge Seager guy so it might be my bias

JC: Paul – Everybody seems to be down on Mitch Garver, except Steamer. IF, a BIG IF, he has health and plays mostly DH (expectation in SEA) couldn’t he approach his 2019 season. He hits line drives and hit in middle of a pretty good Texas line-up on their WS run. What do you expect and is he better in an OPS format?

Paul Sporer: Non-catching catcher, always a player type I like. He certainly has volume upside, though I’m not betting on a 33-year old to just randomly stay healthy for the first time ever. That said, he doesn’t need to stay super healthy to be worth his 184 ADP and I could stand to bump him up a bit in my C rankings — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/catcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

SP Question: Which two would you “reach” for in a 12T Roto : Bobby Miller, Grayson, Ragans & Gilbert ?

Paul Sporer: Good group there! Miller/Grayson for me! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

E Street: Favorite Springsteen song ?

Paul Sporer: Not a huge Brucehad like a lot baseball folks, but it’s probably Glory Days. I really only know the hits

David Appelman: Paul – in light of your recently revealed transgressions against Gunnar Henderson, I am hereby SUSPENDING you WITHOUT PAY for the duration of the month. Please apologize for Gunter as well.

Paul Sporer: Dangit, merked!

Günter: I thought you’d find it interesting how much a player’s outlook can change in a half season.  Nice job searching out that random comment too.

Paul Sporer: I totally agree re: the long season and often preach that to folks. I wasn’t a huge Gunnar guy coming into the season bc of his platoon problems and lack of track record so I wasn’t expecting a huge summer to vault him into the top 50

John W: Thanks for doing these chats, Paul! Looking at a potential deal of my Belli/McLain for his Altuve/Walker in a 5×5 OBP keeper. Loving the potential of Walker and the OBP of Altuve, but maybe I’m off? What say you, Paul?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have any issues with the deal. I do lean toward Belli/McLain myself, but not by so much that I want to talk you out of taking Altuve/Walker bc it’s a really fair deal IMO.

MySideHurts: I was ready to reach for McClain this season. How concerning is even a slight oblique issue?

Paul Sporer: I do have some concern, but it hasn’t taken me off him as I’ve even added another share since the oblique news. If we don’t get positive news in March, I’ll pull back but for now I remain fully in

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I’m still gonna have some marathons for y’all in March so stay tuned for those. For now, I gotta get back to work. Sleepers article still comin and Expert Rankings page will be updated by Monday (could be tom/Fri, but for sure by Mon). Take care!