Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 25th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!! A freshly updated SP rankings just dropped right in time: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2026-fantasy-rankings/

Jason: How are we feeling about Colt Keith this season?  Quality MI/CI in a 15-team OBP league?

Datt Mamon: In a vacuum, how would you view J. Duran for Sasaki?

Paul Sporer: Whoops, hit the button too fast. I’ll answer both, but is that Jhoan Duran v. Sasaki in a pitcher v. pitcher comp or Jarren?

Paul Sporer: As for Colt Keith, I’m in especially for OBP. He took a step forward last year and could take another this year even if it’s not a leap. There is still developing power and if he jumps to the 20-HR plateau, it’ll be a nice season. Great price, too

Nick: NL-only dynasty league, 10 teams, standard 5×5…

I have Edwin Diaz at $24, Mason Miller at $16 and Abner Uribe at $10… do I keep Uribe, toss him back, try and trade him? Unsure of how the Brewers pen situation unfolds between now and Opening Day

Paul Sporer: Certainly if you can trade him, I’d look into it. I know that’s always easier said than done as a solution. Trevor Megill got PRP therapy in the offseason and some aren’t sold that it will be enough to fight off injuries which would give Uribe the chance to emerge as the unquestioned guy. Maybe the real move is trade Diaz and go Miller/Uribe for $2 cheaper than Diaz is by himself. Let’s worst case it that Megill stays health, would a strikeout monster with 6-10 SVs (bc he’ll still get some even if Megill is healthy), 3-6 Ws (he’ll be in leverage spots) and great ratios not still have value at $10 in NL Only? The definite wrong answer to me is keeping all 3. Trade Diaz, trade Uribe, or cut Uribe to keep the studs are the 3 options I’d look at the most.

Guest: What is the correct range in 5×5 to select Sal Stewart high to low?

Frank: What is the correct range in 5×5 to select Sal Stewart 180-200 ok?

Paul Sporer: I like pretending this is 2 different pp and not just Frank adding context with his 2nd msgl! I’d expand it up to 150 if you really like him. Stewart could be a dude, especially if he runs (17 last yr, 15 in ’24) and doesn’t get too power happy that it eats up his AVG.

At 1B, Yandy Diaz is going around 140-150 and then it’s a jump down to Willson Contreras at 175 (which I happen to think is too low). If you love Stew, I can see slotting him in between those 2. Tork, Burleson, Aranda, and Stewart go next at 180-195.

Clurb: Is there any chance Gerritt Cole is useful this season through sheer DOG in him, vs. some other guys who seem to need an extra year to get right from TJ?

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, I wouldn’t shocked if Cole is good for 3-3.5 mos. if he returns in mid-to-late May. I’m not holding through the injury in NFBC leagues with no IL slots, but leagues with many ILs, I don’t mind holding Cole in hopes of a second half stud

Matt W.: Hi Paul , Any ideas on a hail-mary closer after pick 250 in a 15 team league 5 x5 DC. Garcia and O’brien just went.

Paul Sporer: Speculating on the Minnesota situation could be interesting. Can Taylor Rogers recapture some magic? They have a billion lefties so they can definitely one close. That said, it’s righty Cole Sands that gets my attention. His K% cratered to 21% after a 29% in 2024, but his BB% was good in both seasons so if the Ks return, he could possibly be an impact closer… well, impact in terms of skills & ratios. Volume of SVs will be tough in Minnesota. But ya, check out Minnesota.

Bucco: In a standard keep forever league, how early is too early to draft Konnor Griffin? What if the league counted OBP instead of Ave and added Ks as a negative?

Paul Sporer: Standard keep forever meaning the keepers selected you get forever? If so, how many keepers do you get. I need a bit more info before committing too hard here

Q: top fantasy relevant non-roster invitees? 30 team dynasty

Paul Sporer: I covered prospect NRIs in this piece here, but I don’t have a good handle on non-prospect NRIs worth tracking. — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2026-re-draft-and-dynasty… — That could be an article worth looking into

AL Central Casting: In your chat last week, someone asked why teams don’t just put guys on the 60-day all at once. The answer is they can’t unless they need that roster spot for a different move.

Paul Sporer: Oh they have to fill the spot right away? Because I did know it takes ’em off the 40-man as an avid Out of the Park Baseball lover, but I didn’t know you had to wait IRL

Cristopher’s Dad: Why do your ranking’s project a 3.44 ERA for Cristopher Sanchez? Both his ERA, FIP, and xFIP have been below that the last two years. So you prefer another stat like Siera or xERA?

Paul Sporer: I do like SIERA a good bit. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the exact ERA in that projection. I just said I could see a full season of his 2023 results which were 3.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP/20% K-BB. But the hard number isn’t that important, it should be viewed as a range. Honestly, if he matches or comes close to the WHIP and K-BB listed there, then he has a chance at another sub-3.00 ERA. Only 13 SPs in the The BAT X SPs projections were given better than a 3.44 proj. (https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=thebatx&stats=sta&pos=all&t…) so anything at 3.50 and lower as a projection is saying someone is a stud

Nate: Any concerns about Yama being dialed back a bit this season? After the Big 3 go I’m hesitant to call his number if he’s going to be cut down.

Paul Sporer: It’s always a risk w/the Dodgers, but nothing about going 173 last yr kept him from an electric postseason performance. I realize he tacked on another 56 in the playoffs and those are the concern. But the question is, do they see him as a 200-something IP guy for the WHOLE year so he can still get 160-170 in the regular season with juice for the playoffs or would they rather he not eclipse 200 all yr and thus need to cut his regular season IP to leave enough in the tank for Oct. It’s not like they need to set aside 50+ IP a yr for the playoffs as it was a historic performance. But any non-injury downshift as a result is likely to be manageable. Even at 150 IP, he can be a top 5 guy.

Guest: How are you shifting your playing time projections for Carroll and Lindor?

Paul Sporer: I gotta shift ’em down a little bit to be safe, but it’s less about the playing time and more about how they’re playing upon return. A study has been floating around the community after the rush of hamates that showed 80% of guys got back to their level. But I couldn’t find anything that said how long that took. Surely, it wasn’t that 80% of the pool was 100% themselves immediately upon return? Do Carroll & Lindor become better AVG/SB guys as they wait for the power to return or do they lag through some tough weeks waiting to get right?

Paddy: How do you handle closers in saves+holds? Would you pay up for one of top guys like Diaz?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really look at em at all anymore. With the ever fracturing bullpens, SV totals have come down toward HD totals and I’d rather just spec. on my guys later in the draft. In fact, SOLDs leagues are one where I don’t mind playing the wire and looking for those next great leverage relievers who can pile up HDs.

In 2015: there were 21 guys with 30+ SVs | just 3 with 30+ HDs
In 2025: there were 8 guys with 30+ SVs | and 6 with 30+ HDs

Maximum Clark: As a fellow Tigers fan, how soon do you think we’ll see Max Clark in Detroit this year?

Paul Sporer: Didn’t you hear? He lost all of his skill bc he wore some dumb necklaces that made a buncha weirdos upset lol

Paul Sporer: BTW, I do think 400 chains like that does look silly, but the idea that they were cause of his crap day in the field is so weird. At any rate, a Memorial Day Weekend double call-up of McGonigle and Max sets the offense ablaze and fuels an AL Central division win!

Jane: Hi Paul, Jansen, Seranthony or Megill in saves only? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Jansen for sure. For allll the talk about Hinch’s bullpen usage and desired flexibility, he still likes having an A-guy button to push. In each of his 4 yrs w/Detroit, the leading closer has 30 (Soto), 26 (Lange), 28 (Foley), and 23 (Vest) SVs. And I know it was BABIP-fueled last yr, but Jansen was really good and there were only 2 Tigers RPs w/at least 20 IP who topped his 16% K-BB (Vest, Chase Lee).

Colton: For people spec’ing late saves, Matt Svanson should be the guy in STL this year, he’s definitely their best arm in the bullpen. Not sure why Marmol and the staff don’t just default to him closing everything out the gate but it seems like they might want him to fill a bit of the Andrew Miller role for the ’16 Cleveland team

Paul Sporer: “Not sure why Marmol…” starts so many of my opinions about Cards players lol

Guest: rough guess on de vries eta

Paul Sporer: late-summer ’27

Max: Do you see River Ryan being ownable in NL only this year?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes. Gavin Stone is once again the apple of my eye so I’d lean him over Ryan, but we gotta monitor the situation bc Justin Wrobleski is there, too. This team is just so damn LOADED lol

org the complex: How aggressive is too aggressive with Konnor Griffin?

Paul Sporer: Depends on your league type, of course, but anything inside the top 250 is far too rich my blood. I think he has virtually no chance to actually break camp and most of the leagues I play don’t have any specific spot to hold a minor leaguer so I’m not gonna stash a one-month-away-from-being-20-year-old with 21 AA gms under his belt.

I’m not afraid of the unknown, either, I took Bobby Witt Jr. at the 3/4 turn of the Main Event in 2022, but he was 22 yrs old and had 63 gms at AAA (he also had the job, of course, it was late-March so we had info)… I just think it’s too early to get hyped about Konnor. It’s fun to be on the next big thing, but I need more certainty. If they ink him to a deal or announce he has the role, I’ll change my tune, but he’s a full fade in drafts until that point

Kev: Assuming all up on Opening Day or all promoted Memorial Day Weekend who do you prefer for an OBP Keeper League?

JJ Wetherholt, Kevin McGonigle, Colt Emerson

Paul Sporer: I like ’em in the order you got ’em here! Wetherholt is a good counter to Konnor is terms of how I’m approaching things. He hasn’t been named, but the 23 y/o has a muuuuuch clearer path and 47 gms at AAA.

Paul Sporer: And I know Soto essentially skipped AA (8 gms) and AAA (0), but he’s a 🦄 and while Konnor may be as well, I’m not paying a top 180 pick to find out

Pumpsie Green: Nl only, 5×5, 2 C keeper league.  Is Dalton Rushing worth a dollar with an eye toward being able to keep him or dress

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind that in an NL-only where C2 will no doubt get dicey!!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out. I’ll have another SP rankings update ready early into March (7-10 days from now) – Check out today’s big update — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2026-fantasy-rankings/