Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – December 7th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon y’all!

Mustin Jason: Why is Justin Mason so much better at fantasy, funnier, and better looking than you? Do you think your height holds you back from acheiving?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been saying it for years. I’m TOO tall!!!

SandyisTheGreatest: Will the Dodgers trade Lux and Stone for a 3B?

Paul Sporer: I could see them making a big trade if they don’t find what they want on the FA wire, but it seems they like Lux so I’m not sure he’s part of it

ScottTINSTAAPP: Hope to see you in Vegas in the Spring for the Main Event! Ended up winning our ME league and finishing 17th overall and are using the winnings to go do our first live draft in Vegas in March

Paul Sporer: YESSSS let’s gooo!!! I will be there, definitely say hi!

Paul Sporer: (I’m the too tall one)

SandyisTheGreatest: Should the Dodgers trade Will Smith knowing Diego Cartajena is almost ready?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t, no. I’d be more inclined to trade Cartaya tbh

Peanut Arbuckle: Hi Paul, are you taking Colt Keith over Nick Gordon in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Gordon fan. I’m not sure he will get a starter’s role next year but he could play most days in a super utility role. Keith is probably the better hitter but doesn’t add anything defensively which could make it hard for him to cover out a role, even on a bad Tigers team

Kyle: Mustin Jason – I’m pretty sure Paul didn’t pull a 2008 Detriot Lions (0-16) in fantasy leagues this past year like someone else I know….

Paul Sporer: Kyle, hit me with that Venmo for the $ I owe you!

DH: Do you like Joe Ryan or Reid Detmers more for next year? (Categories IP, ERA, WHIP, K)

Paul Sporer: I have them close, but I lean toward Detmers with his richer upside. Ryan has a more stable floor, but his HR issue likely keeps him from turning in an ace season whereas Detmers could build on his 2H success and take off

diadem: NL only  5×5 $260 14/9. 30% inflation. I have Snell at $22. Keeper?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a keeper in that setup! If he can build on that stretch run surge, he could be a stud. But even just adding more innings of the 3.38 ERA/1.20 WHIP would be good

Peanut Arbuckle: Would you trade Colt Keith for Nick Gordon in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Yes I can get behind a 1:1 deal there

Kate: Mentioned this to Justin the other week, stumbled onto Nick’s “Nick Pollack and Friends” pod series and really enjoyed the eps with you and Justin.  Fun to learn more about you guys.  The Jamba Juice story had me laughing haha!

Paul Sporer: Excellent podcast to learn about many folks in the fantasy industry!! I was episode 1, Justin was episode 5 – https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nick-pollack-friends-podcast/id1…

viceroy: Hey Paul, have you looked much into Kodai Senga? Where do you think you would slot him in your ranks if signed at a neutral park/team context

Paul Sporer: I learned a good bit from this Jolly Olive video in addition to what I’ve read over the last couple yrs: — I’ve got him up to SP80 right now and think I’d move him another 10-12 spots if he signs somewhere neutral or better. Just kinda parked him on my list for now and waiting to see where he goes & how they plan to utilize him

Kate: Asked Justin this the other day, but curious your perspective.  Do you think Verlander was a special case for Houston in terms of signing a starter (i.e. do you think they’ll just roll with what they have in house now)?  Or do you think they’ll try to sign someone else?  Wondering if this will actually end up moving Hunter Brown closer to a rotation spot.

Paul Sporer: Even with JV gone, Brown is the 6 right now so I’m not sure they rush out to replace him. I looove Hunter Brown so I’m hoping he finds a rotation spot, but unless they move 1 of their current 5, Framber-Javier-Garcia-Urq-McCullers, I think Brown is first man up. I do think he can deliver enough value in a multi-inning relief role that I’m still drafting him in 15-team mixers even without an SP slot

Kate: Are the Pirates really going to stack enough boring arms in front of Luis Ortiz that he’s going to start in the minors?  Please just let these kids play.

Paul Sporer: Wrote him up just last night for the Fantasy Black Book (out later this month!) and came to that conclusion, yes. I think he spends at least a month or so in AAA unless he just comes to spring with much tighter command and control. This was the outlook:

Luis Ortiz, PIT
·Looks like the 6th man which makes sense after just 10 AAA & 16 MLB IP
·Needs some fine tuning as he is pretty wild
·98.5 mph fastball was 4th highest (min. 16 IP)
·2-pitch guy with show-me changeup (5%)
·Still very raw at age-24; don’t overpay

Taijuan Taillon: Of mid-tier SP signings, who’s got the best change of scenery? The worst? Thinking of Taijuan, Taillon, Heaney, Anderson, Quintana

Paul Sporer: I’m a personal fan of Taijuan, but I’m worried about the move to PHI. If he keeps the GB rate gains, he can continue to mitigate HRs, but with his 1.4 HR from 2020-21 looming, I do worry that PHI as his home park can bring a return of the longball.

I have a hard time saying anyone had a best chance. It always sucks to leave the Dodgers so I think it’s worse off for Anderson & Heaney, though less for Heaney as I trust TEX over LAA and like Globe Life for pitchers. Actually, as I’m typing, I’m realizing Taillon from NYY to CHC is pretty good. His HRs spiked in 2021-22 at 1.4 so moving to CHC is a boon as he moves from the 8th best HR park for hitters to the 17th (though those days the wind is blowing out can be hell). Ranking in order them after their moves:

Heaney
Taillon
Taijuan, Quintana, Anderson

Revive the Fireside Chats: Should I take Ober or Trevor Rogers as my SP9 in a startup dynasty draft?

Paul Sporer: Firesides not dead and I still lean Rogers

Felines: Do you see a Winker bounce back with offseason surgery & a better park?

Paul Sporer: It all comes down to health with him. He was off my list with the CIN-to-SEA park move, but I’m back in with the price plummet and move back to a more neutral park overall. The HR factor goes from 94 (19th) to 119 (5th), too! But again, health has long been an issue for him so I do worry there, especially with 2 offseason surgeries. Thankfully a post-300 pick covers the injury risk so there is still upside to be mined from taking Winker

Mustin Jason: Kyle with the dagger…

Paul Sporer: Didn’t think Kyle was gonna come that dirty

SandyisTheGreatest: Mookie Betts at 2B and Lux at SS with Edwin Rios at 3B and Vargas spelling Freeman at 1B. Who says no!?

Paul Sporer: Almost certainly the Dodgers lol

Kate: On the Bell signing, looks like a pretty good landing spot for him, no?  The only better one I could come up with was Houston, but that obviously closed when they grabbed Abreu.  Side note: how does this affect a guy like Will Brennan?  Does he now start the year with a significantly reduced role?  Or does everyone in the OF/1B/DH grouping just lose a bit of PT so they can spread it across one extra guy?

Paul Sporer: Yes, it’s a great move for CLE and Bell! 2/3rds of his PA comes as a lefty, which is great for his new ballpark (6th in lefty hitter park factor). SD is 28th in lefty park factor, though in fairness his road work was the trouble w/them (.449 OPS in 105 road PA). This definitely dents Will Brennan’s immediate outlook. They might entrust him with CF, but I think they’ve aimed to build a  strong enough lineup to absorb Myles Straw so they can have his defense. We shall see on that. You can still gamble on Brennan in Draft Champions leagues because he is dirt cheap (574th ADP). Josh Naylor should be a straight up platoon after this, but we’re not too upset about losing 127 PA of .512 OPS (.565 career OPS).

Phil: How quickly/do you think Miguel Vargas gets OF eligibility next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure he does. It’s always so hard to predict these kinds of things with the Dodgers because they are in on everyone via trade or free agency so they can always make a huge move and blow up any plans we have. They might have moved on from Justin Turner to give Vargas the full-time 3B role… or they do something like sign Bogy and make Lux the everyday 3B. Just tough to call. That said, I like Vargas enough that I am taking him even with an uncertain outlook. He is going after pick-300 which still feels plenty fair given his upside at the dish

Kate: Is Alzolay def in the pen or is there a chance he gets one more shot to start?  If pen, do you think he has a shot to start the year in some kind of closer committee?

Paul Sporer: I’m betting against a return to starting at this point as he might 8th in line: Taillon, Stro, Hendricks, Steele, Sampson, Thompson, Wesneski… and then maybe Alzolay. Or perhaps Assad. Love Alzolay’s talent, but definitely think he has a better chance to be a fantasy relevant closer than starter

Insert Witty Name Here: My league for the first time did Saves + Holds, and I’m not sure how I feel about it.  It deepened the player pool by a lot. But it also took away that soap opera that is always “who is the manager letting close games”.  Do you have a preference?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s definitely my pushback on SV+HD, it takes away that piece of work/volatility that adds spice to our game. And look, sometimes it’s just dumb luck to land on a closer who drop 15 second half saves bc you got the guy 4th on your list and he fell into a job, but that’s not reason enough take that strategic piece out of the game. Hard work on bullpen speculation can and often is rewarded, it’s not always just blind luck. I still dream of a day when Shutdowns are the RP stat we use. It’s based on WPA which makes it a tough fantasy sell bc you can’t watch a game and know for sure that you got a Shutdown as you can with so many other fantasy stats, but I do think it’d be the best single stat to measure RP talent.

More on Shutdowns:
Definition
Leaderboard

Kate: Forget if I asked you this last week, but do you think Reese Olson gets a meaningful amount of starts for your Tigers this year?  If so, how do you like his chances to stick as an effective starter?  Did the command really tick up as much as the improved walk rate would make it seem?

Paul Sporer: Pardon me… had a delivery come that I had to take care of

Paul Sporer: Very pleased with Reese Olson’s big season: sliced his BB rate nearly in half to 7.5% while strikeouts surged 13 points to 33% at Double-A. He was added to the 40 to avoid the Rule 5 draft and could make the Tigers as a RP out of camp or go to AAA and continue starting. He could be fantasy-relevant either way if he builds upon his major gains from ’22

Eugenio Suarez: Eugenio Suarez finished 8th in the third base position rankings in my league last year but I cannot drum up any interest in him. Was his bad year+ so bad that people still think he’s washed?

Paul Sporer: It’s not that people think he’s washed, it’s just the wide range of outcomes for that all-or-nothing profile. He feels just as likely to drop another 84 wRC+ (like his ’21) as he is to repeat last year’s 131. It just makes him a tough sell in the trade market

Lange: Alex Lange for Closer of Detroit 2023?

Paul Sporer: Love the breakout season for Lange, but unless Gregory Soto is moved, I don’t see a new closer

Estevez: I’m going to be the secret closer for the Angels after everyone buys Herget and Quijada?

Paul Sporer: I could absolutely see Carlos Estévez taking the role. Hard thrower, three pitches, 15% career K-BB, and has definitely looked quite solid outside of Coors for his career: 3.51 ERA/1.26 WHIP compared to 5.57/1.54 at home. If they don’t get anyone else, I really like gambling on Estevez

Booger: Thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez odds to be in rotation by, say May 1?  Assuming yes, what rank/tier do you slot him?

Paul Sporer: Latest word in Jeff’s Mining the News gives Grayson a real shot to break camp with the team: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-12-6-22/ I moved him from 106 to 80 just on that news alone yesterday. If you are a Grayson fan, I recommend some winter shares because he will only go up from here if becomes more and more clear that he will have a spot to open the year

Texis: What is going to happen to my shares of J. Naylor now that J. Bell has joined the party?

Paul Sporer: There’s a world where they are better. I like volume as much as the next guy, but Naylor just can’t hit lefties so it could be a more-is-less type of thing with him being a full-on platoon player. I still think he’s a monster vR and that’s enough to keep him mixed league relevant, especially in 12s and deeper

Shotgun: O/U Steamer projection for Brandon Drury of 21 HR and .731 OPS in 560 PA?  That’s a .317 wOBA.  I’m thinking he’s a solid bet for .330+.

Paul Sporer: It really depends where he lands for me. He thrived in Cincy and he was essentially the guy you’ve mapped out above in SD so I can certainly see that in a neutral or slightly worse venue. Just land somewhere that gets him an everyday role and I’m inclined to buyback around pick-190.

RayG: For Sandy

RayG: Rios was non-tendered

Paul Sporer: Oh yaaa so unless LAD brings him back, he won’t be doin’ a damn thing for them!

Taijuan Taillon: Fantrax has an option for Saves + 0.5 per Hold. Feels right

Paul Sporer: I prefer that to 1 for each, good call

Dynasty D: Still believe in Dylan Carlson, Jesse Winker or Austin Meadows? All on waivers in my 16-team dynasty!

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m down to gamble on any of the three, particularly in that order. I’m not quitting Carlson yet while Winker and Meadows are relatively easy buybacks given their price (waiver wire in your case!). I still prefer Winker to Meadows, though

Judge: Judge back to the Yankees is such a loss for me as a Yankees hater. He’s so g-d likeable, but I’m forced to hate him! Rules are rules.

Paul Sporer: lolololol… I’ve dealt with that feeling a lot lately as they’ve had so many likeable players. Thankfully they haven’t been terribly successful so they aren’t the Evil Empire and thus my hate has softened on them in light of rooting for some of their more likeable guys including Judge, of course. Now they’ve got my boy Harrison Bader, too!!

Worried Astros fan: Cristian Javier pitched like an ace last year… can he actually be an ace? Like over a full season of starting ace?

Paul Sporer: This was probably the best he will ever pitch as a 2-pitch stud who struck out a third of the batters he faced. I certainly think he can deliver an excellent full season of work (mid-3.00s ERA, low-1.20s WHIP, and gobs of Ks) but I’d be hard pressed to predict a full season of that 2.54 ERA/0.95 WHIP we just saw. He’s a Top 30 SP in my rankings!

Jam: How are we feeling the new rules about the shift could be impacted by Casual Weather this season?

Paul Sporer: This isn’t being discussed NEARLYYY enough. Justin might be best to answer that, though, being the foremost expert on Casual Weather

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!