Mining the News (12/6/22)

Masataka Yoshida is expected to be posted soon.

Last year in Japan, he hit .336/.449/.559 with 21 HR and 4 SB. In 2021, he hit .336/.426/.557 with 21 HR and 0 SB.

American League

Angels

Shohei Ohtani is open to pitch every five days but if the team goes back to a six-man rotation, Chase Silseth has the inside track for the sixth spot.

The big question is the Angels’ sixth starter. It’s not impossible that the Angels go with a five-man rotation. Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, suggested that Ohtani was open to pitching every five days. The more likely scenario is a six-man rotation, especially to start the year and especially with Ohtani likely pitching innings in the World Baseball Classic.

Silseth, though, is the pick here. He’s a hard-throwing righty to balance out a rotation with four lefties who don’t throw particularly hard. Silseth has all the tools to be a good starter. His key is going deeper into games.

The 22-year-old Sileth struggled in the majors with a 6.59 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and a 7.5 K/9 in 28 IP. He was better in 83 AAA innings (2.28 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 11.9 K/9). His fastball (96 mph), splitter (14 SwStr%), and slider (17% SwStr%) are serviceable but he needs to find the plate (3.8 BB/9)

Tucker Davidson is trying to improve his slider and changeup.

The Angels have been working with [Davidson] to improve his slider and changeup, as the 26-year-old still has some upside.

First off, it would be better if he worked on throw strikes (career 5.7 BB/9). Second, his slider is already decent (16 SwStr%). Finally, his change has been garbage (7% SwStr%) and he barely threw it (41 pitches).

• It looks like Jimmy Herget (346 ADP) and José Quijada (747 ADP) will be the closers.

As presently constructed, Herget and Quijada would be tasked with closing games.

Mariners

Kolten Wong has been trying to lift the ball more.

Some of [Wong’s] offensive uptick correlated with a more intentional effort to lift the ball more. His line-drive and fly-ball rate the past two years were the highest of his career (49.3% combined), while his ground-ball rate dipped to his lowest (43.7% for ‘21-22). It’s perhaps no coincidence that his OPS+ in each of the past two years — 110 in ‘21 and 118 in ‘22 — was the highest of his career.

His Launch Angle has increased from 11% to 13% to 14% while his groundball rate has gone from 50% to 42% to 42% over the past three seasons.

Dylan Moore should start some at second or short against lefties.

With two lefty-hitting middle infielders, the Mariners are now positioned to utilize Dylan Moore more regularly in the infield, a by-design plan at the offseason’s outset.

“The way our team is constructed right now, the great likelihood is [Moore] spends more days than he did last year at second and at short,” Hollander said. “Spelling players, giving them days off and making sure that we get the best version of everybody because of Dylan’s great strengths and versatility and versus left-handed pitching.”

Here is how the three middle infielders have hit against lefties and righties over the past three seasons.

Name: OPS vs LHP, OPS vs RHP
Kolten Wong: .660, .790
J.P. Crawford: .682, .699
Dylan Moore: .738, .681

I wonder if Wong gets benched the most for Moore because of his extreme platoons.

Orioles

Grayson Rodriguez is likely in the rotation according to G.M. Mike Elias.

Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to break camp in the Orioles’ rotation. In fact, general manager Mike Elias told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi at the GM Meetings earlier this month that he believes Rodriguez is “on the inside of the competition” for one of the five starting spots.

White Sox

• Pitching coach Ethan Katz says that Michael Kopech is behind in his recovery.

“It’s going to be a little slower progression than we originally thought, but [Kopech is] still on track to be ready for spring full go,” Katz said. “We have it mapped out for him breaking camp, being able to finish camp at five innings and 85 pitches, which would put him in a good spot to start the season.”

Yankees

• G.M. Brian Cashman is fine going into the season with Clay Holmes as the closer.

On multiple occasions, Cashman has said he feels good about Clay Holmes being the Yankees’ closer next season.

DJ LeMahieu might have surgery on his foot and could return in two and a half to five months.

A broken sesamoid bone could zap a player’s production because of how painful the injury is, Chona said, which is what happened with LeMahieu in the second half of the season. In the 42 second-half games he played, LeMahieu hit .228/.308/.327 with just four home runs and four doubles. His second-half OPS was .635, down from .786 in the first half.

“Every time he would swing and try to hit, he would have this sudden twinge of pain,” Chona said when describing sesamoid injuries. “It does explain the performance dip. In the long term when people usually come back from this injury, they don’t tend to see a performance dip. It’s not a huge sample size because it’s not a common injury. You can continue trying non-operative treatment, meaning rest and trying to get the bone to heal. If it’s still not healing, you will move to a surgery. They still have some time to make their decision knowing surgery is still an option.”

Surgery is still being considered, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said earlier this month. It’s expected that LeMahieu will make a decision on pursuing surgery or continuing to rest by the end of the year. If LeMahieu needs surgery, the average timeline of returning is 10 to 12 weeks with the maximum recovery pushing five months. That means if LeMahieu does get surgery next month or at the beginning of January, it’s possible he will be cleared for baseball activities before the season begins.

This whole situation is a lose-lose and has him dropping in my rankings. He either plays hurt or will miss a considerable amount of time.

National League

Braves

Vaughn Grissom is the #1 shortstop… for now.

But after I talked recently with infield guru Ron Washington, who is working one-on-one with Grissom in three intensive one-week sessions on shortstop play in Wash’s hometown of New Orleans, I do believe the Braves would go into the season, or at least to spring training, with Grissom and Arcia as options one and two, figuring they could always scramble to find another shortstop this spring if necessary.

The Braves would like to sign one of the remaining three high-end shortstops but Grissom seems to be their backup plan.

Dodgers

• Manager Dave Roberts says that Miguel Vargas will play a ton next season.

Miguel Vargas (305 ADP) is playing a bunch next year, and Dave Roberts said as much on The Athletic’s “Starkville” podcast this week. Be it at third base, left field or designated hitter, Vargas will have a chance at extended playing time.

James Outman is expected to start the season on the major league roster.

James Outman is in line to at least get a share of a platoon, possibly in center field, though in speaking with him as part of “Access SportsNet” this week, he didn’t provide much of an inkling as far as a set role.

• The team will go with a closer by committee with the current bullpen.

Now that Kimbrel is gone, is this the year the Dodgers go all-in on just not having a designated closer? — Eli V.

It sure sounds like it, from the front office’s comments to Roberts’ own comments on the aforementioned “Starkville” podcast. This is how the Dodgers hoped to go through last year, too, before they connected on the Craig Kimbrel deal — one that was as much about clearing money for this winter as it was addressing a bullpen need. The Dodgers have plenty of intriguing bullpen options, from Daniel Hudson to Evan Phillips to Alex Vesia and even new signee Shelby Miller. The Dodgers could still add relievers with experience but don’t expect them to pin themselves to one guy in the ninth inning.

Marlins

• Manager Skip Schumaker expects Bryan De La Cruz to get 500 at-bats next season.

What the Marlins do in center field will affect left. Something that new manager Skip Schumaker said on the Miami Mic’d Up podcast with Jeremy Taché stuck out to me: He mentioned looking forward to Bryan De La Cruz getting 500 at-bats. De La Cruz, whose Statcast batting percentile rankings jump off the page, ended the 2022 season on a tear (1.137 OPS in 25 games) once he was recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville. What better spot to put him than in left field, allowing Soler to be the primary designated hitter?

That should put him around 550 PA for the season. An interesting balanced profile to target

Reds

Joey Votto is ahead of schedule.

The reason [Votto] started swinging this week was more related to his rehab from season-ending shoulder surgery in August. At the time, he was hoping to start swinging around the new year, but he beat that by a month.

He plans on being ready for the start of Spring Training.

The plan after the surgery was for Votto to hopefully be ready to go around the time Spring Training started.

“It’s great,” Bell said. “I know he’s going to do everything he can. He’s going to want to be 100% ready to go, but with the way he works and his commitment, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s ready to go on time. But we’ll have to take it one step, one month at a time.”

Jose Barrero continues to work on his swing.

New hitting coach Joel McKeithan spent a couple of days in Florida with the 24-year-old Barrero to reiterate some of the swing changes they made during the season.

Tyler Stephenson expects to be ready for a normal Spring Training.

The good news is that Stephenson, at least, is already swinging his bat and should be ready to have a regular spring training come February.

Graham Ashcraft was gassed at the end of last season.

Graham Ashcraft didn’t make any excuses at the end of the season when he gave up 16 earned runs over 12 innings in his final three starts. But, nearly two months removed from his final start of his rookie season, Ashcraft admitted he was gassed at the end of the season.

“I could feel it. I was tired,” Ashcraft said Thursday.

Also, he is working to add both a changeup and a splitter.

The biggest things Ashcraft is working on are his changeup and split-finger fastball. He threw it some last season, but concentrated on getting his slider and two-seam fastball more consistent. In doing that, the changeup was shelved.

“I know where I need to be with the changeup,” Ashcraft said. “It’s more of trying to see what the splitter can do because I feel like if the splitter can end up getting the action I want out of it, I think that could make my pitch profile pretty good.”

He only threw eight changes last year. An average one of either would be a great addition to his fastballs (97 mph, ~60% GB%) and slider (14% SwStr%, 31 GB%).

Nick Senzel had off-season foot surgery.

Reds outfielder Nick Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe on his left foot last week, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but it looks as if his offseason routine could be impacted to some extent.

He is expected to play either center field or third base once healthy.

He’s presently the favorite for the starting center field job, but Nightengale suggests the Reds could look for outside help at the position. That’d presumably be via the lower tier of free agency or the trade market and would push Senzel more into a multi-positional role off the bench. General manager Nick Krall told reporters last week Senzel was an option to factor in at third base, the position at which he was drafted. He’s only played 32 MLB innings at the hot corner while logging just over 2000 frames in the outfield.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

9 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
lavarnway
1 year ago

Grissom is going to emerge out of Wash’s lab as a gold glover

tagemandbagem
1 year ago
Reply to  lavarnway

Work your magic, Ron Washington! The kid could be a major breakout with regular playing time.