Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 23rd, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Air Horn: BWAOW WOW WOW OWWWWWWWW

Paul Sporer: That’s a pretty good imitation!

Guest: rank for ROS homers: Santana Moore Suwinski Aranda

Paul Sporer: Is that Dylan Moore?

Paul Sporer: Santana/Suwinski are pretty close for #1, I’d look and try to estimate what kinda lefty SP load PIT might have that would hurt Suwinski. Moore is surging but still comes 3rd and Aranda just doesn’t play enough, so while he carries some intrigue, I’m not really buying into we see him carve out a real role

Alex: Thanks for the Blach comment. It made my day 😂

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!!

Nukes Laloosh: What probability do you place on CES as an elite power bat?

Paul Sporer: Elite meaning like 35+ HR threat for several years I’d say as a shorthand, 15-20% which might feel light but it’s probably on the high end for prospects. Just needs to make enough contact consistently

DANImal: Hi Paul. With the recent prospect call ups is there any you think has ros value in h2h categories league? Talking mainly meadows, pereira, kieboom.

Paul Sporer: I can see Meadows maybe having some if they let him run

wyatt: seiya suzuki seems to quietly be surging the past 30 days. think he can be an asset even in shallow leagues ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I was huge on him coming into the year until the oblique injury in spring took me off him for last few drafts (including my Main Event). Looks healthy and ready to rock. Definitely in down the stretch

Insert Witty Name Here: Any worries that Acuña will slow down on the base paths due to their NL East lead?

Paul Sporer: Not really, no

Crews/Skenes: Will both be up next season and who would you rather target?

Paul Sporer: Might get a look in September, tbh. I lean toward Crews given the more volatile nature of rookie SPs

Oddball Herrera: I was shocked yesterday to find out Jasson Dominguez has gone 15/37 and is now in AAA as a 20 year old, and all relatively quietly.  Should The Martian go into 2024 as a top 10 dynasty asset?

Paul Sporer: He’s definitely up high for me, not sure quite Top 10, though. It is crazy that the market has kinda quieted on him likely due to some prospect fatigue even though he just reached AAA. It’s just that he was so hyped immediately that he’s slipped down some lists prematurely IMO

Freddy Peralta: Freddy P is a top __ SP the rest of the way and will be drafted like a top __ next season? Been super encouraged by him doing all this while also throwing a career high in IP.

Paul Sporer: 25 and hard to say for next yr bc his finish will be SO instrumental in where he goes. Probably 30-35 off the top of my head right now

Paul Sporer: New SP ranks still coming this week, btw

Taillon: Has there been any adjustments made by him or has his luck turned?

Paul Sporer: Think he’s mostly just running well. Still a 12% K-BB during this run (3.69 ERA/1.17 WHIP in his last 46 IP)

Stroman: With his season likely done, how do you think he’ll be valued next season? Will people explain his bad month-ish with the injury? Nobody knows when it officially occurred.

Paul Sporer: I imagine he’ll basically go where he always does. He was always going to regress from those heights and instead of just steady regression back to the mean, there was a harsh downshift w/a handful of duds, but he essentially found his level (mid-to-high 3.00s)

Paul Sporer:

Insert Witty Name Here: Other than the A’s, what teams are you looking to stream pitchers against?

Paul Sporer: Cover that daily in the SP chart! Handedness matters so we break it down M-F: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/sp-chart/

wyatt: skubal has been oftly frustrating including getting hit around by the cubs already. is he someone to trust (at least for Ks and solid ratios)? his ERA estimators are great but he doesnt seem to be pitching to them

Paul Sporer: The Cubs are really good, this was always a risky run. I’m not cutting him, but he’s not an Auto Start. I am OK sitting him v. stud teams in medium and shallow formats

LlewellynMoss: Is Spencer Torkleson’s recent production legit? Should he be valued differently next year?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. You can’t fake a power run like this. Huge steps forward for him in the power department and he’ll be a solid riser in the rankings for 2024. There were obviously far too swift of negative judgments on Tork after 400 PA. BTW, don’t go the other way and take this recent surge as who he is 100% now, either, but seeing him find some real success is very encouraging for his development

Paulie Eff: Jake Fraley is going to play with a broken toe that will need surgery in the off season. I have him mostly for a decent power/SB combo.  Would it be reasonable to assume that he will not be any use for SB’s ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yes it would. I ran that calculus this weekend during pickups and decided he was still worth trying to stash as a power-only play, but I ended up missing out. But yeah, if you need SBs, you can move on. (Also, he was more than a decent pwr/spd combo — he’s like a Top 25 OF!!)

Willy Adames: Thanks for not answering my question last week about whether I’m droppable in 12’s… I’m heatin’ up, Sporer!

Paul Sporer: I know it’s easy to say this now, but I’d have advocated holding. I’m a pretty big Adames fan

Guest: why hasn’t my Bednar Munoz Sewald Leiter Scott bullpen been better for K/BB and WHIP?

Paul Sporer: Ah the vagaries of RP samples!

wyatt: are you on the brandon drury train now that trout is back in front of him?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I really liked Drury this yr at his price. Now that the lineup is whole again… well Trout & Ohtani are healthy, that’s whole as far as I’m concerned!

Guest: I’m pretty much kidding here, but why would the Nationals cost themselves a year of the Crews-Wood-Soto outfield by bringing DC up to DC now?

Paul Sporer: Would they if he’s up for a cup of coffee in Spetember?

O’stradamus: Safe to drop wander in redraft leagues at this point, Or should we be holding a little longer?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d move on

Rickey: Do you like Rooker, Nelson Velazquez, or Matt Wallner rest of the way? Take any of them over Bryan de la Cruz? OBP league.

Paul Sporer: Big Wallner fan!

wyatt: suzuki or keibert assuming all else equal? h2h ops league

Paul Sporer: Seiya

RAGBRAI: Everyone says NLC is a weak division but other than LA and ATL their top teams are right there with everyone else. Why the bad rap, no superstar team?

Paul Sporer: Yeah and the general carryover of both Centrals being underwhelming compared to the Easts/Wests for quite some time now. I hear you, though. Neither the NLE or NLW have lived up to their hype and while the Cards flopped in the Central, 2 unexpected teams rose up to be really competitive (CHC, CIN). Can’t say much for the ALC, but the NLC’s top 3 clubs are pretty solid

Paulie Eff: Re: Fraley – I’ve got Acuña, Yoshida and Mullins as my reg OF’s with Happ on the bench.  So, would be tough to find a spot for Fraley, unless drop Happ for him?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine dropping in a spot where he’s a bench guy for you

Paul Sporer: Just not sure what we’re gonna get w/him still injured. Love Fraley and he panned out beautifully this year, but we might not get too much the rest of the way

Springer: I have to choose between George Springer and Lane Thomas and I’m leaning toward keeping Thomas. Am I crazy?

Paul Sporer: Not at all. Gimme the guy who is 6 yrs younger, especially when the players aren’t that different right now (Springer’s track record is exponentially better, of course, but that won’t keep him healthy has he pushes further into his mid-30s)

NoPlanDan: Remember when Julio Rodriguez was ‘ruining’ people’s fantasy seasons?

Paul Sporer: There’s been some major cases that should really help remind ppl just how long the season actually is (Gunnar, Michael Harris, Casas and Torkelson… all on a different level than JRod, but instructive for sure). I know it’s hard to see the big picture when you’re in the midst of a slump w/a key player, but 6 months is sooo long.

You could make a case that fantasy baseball is a game that isn’t necessarily enhanced by the up to the second stat delivery of the internet. Back before the internet when we got stats once a week, we probably made fewer overreactionary cuts (not that anyone was cutting J-Rod, just speaking generally about letting samples build).

bogart: CJ Cron owner. Thoughts on Nolan Schanuel. Will he be sent  back down when CJ returns?

Paul Sporer: Schanuel will stick if he’s hitting, IMO. Plus when are we expecting Cron back? I cut him in a 15-teamer. Just not as interested outside of Coors

Santos: Do you think Santos will close for the White Sox in 2024?

Paul Sporer: No clue. I wouldn’t acquire him anywhere in anticipation of such. New regime and all, just no way to know with any real certainty

Bogart: Would you start Detmers tonight against Cincy?

Paul Sporer: Probably – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-august-23rd/

Helsley: Is he about to be Alex Reyes part 2?

Paul Sporer: With the injuries? It could be a problem. Suuuper live arm, but don’t forget that he’s already 28 and command has always been a problem. Love him when he’s healthy, but he’s tough to bet on in any sort of keeper/dynasty situation right now.

AndrewP: Kyle Bradish: Cy Young contender?

Paul Sporer: Fringe contender at best. The time missed stings as Cole is matching his ERA w/30 more IP

Old Man Yelling at Clouds: Anyone else remember getting a weekly stat/standing update in mail during the old days or just me? No longer have to add stamp $ to the league’s budget.

Paul Sporer: My first league was an AL Only 10 teamer run by my dad and his work friends so every OTHER week they would they run the stats using the USA Today. They’d run it after work on Wednesdays but sometimes he’d come home late on a Wednesday bc of actual work instead of the stats and I’d be so crestfallen when there wasn’t 3 thick stat packs in his briefcase (one for me, him, and my mom… all of whom had teams in the league)

Dinner’s ready: Is Javier cooked? Maybe the transition from RP to SP to SP with a clock was just too much for him?

Paul Sporer: No no, I wouldn’t say cooked. Too soon for all that. He’s struggling but don’t forget he had 2.90 ERA as recently as June 15th. And even in this cold streak, it’s not like he’s bludgeoning you every 5th day. Since the 6 and 8 ER outings B2B, he hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any of his L7 despite the 5.00 ERA

Paul Sporer: I can see myself buying him a bunch next year if he doesn’t turnaround this yr and everyone sours on him

Pedro: Peraza or Pereira?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Peraza fan

Petey Bienel: JP Crawford or CJ Abrams for the next month in playoffs in a points league (very shallow – 8 teams) with no points for steals?

Petey Bienel: adding – replacing Wander.

Paul Sporer: Think I still prefer Abrams even w/out the SBs doing anything

Bonk: Bryce has 15 starts at 1B and has been DH’ing with his back issues .. think he makes 20 starts to retain 1B eligibility for 2024?

Paul Sporer: Gonna be close. Kinda just depends how he feels and if they allow him to get some more starts

Ethan Salas’ Dad: Why do you think SD promoted Ethan Salas to AA after only 9 High A games where it seems he didn’t hit well? When do you think he reaches the majors?

Paul Sporer: His defense is probably going to carry him through the minors, tbh

Old Man Yelling at Clouds: Also calling into the hotline to get your pickups in. Thanks for doing these

Paul Sporer: Always enjoy chatting!

RAGBRAI: Tellez is droppable ROS correct? If only the Alonso trade had happened for Milwaukee. That would have made things interesting.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, you can move on and maybe go back if he catches fire

RAGBRAI: ROS of season pick two…Alex Thomas, Chisholm, Edman? Is it the last two just based on PT? Battling for first.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I gotta go Chis/Edman

Guest: Rank these 3 for ROS: Santander, Torkelson, Caldelario.

Paul Sporer: Tork, Candy, Santandy

v2micca: Mookie has roared ahead of the rest of the NL in fWAR.  If he maintains the lead, how much will that impact MVP voters?

Paul Sporer: Really depends who’s voting. The same folks don’t vote for the NL MVP every year so if it’s a cross-section of writers who lean heavily on advanced metrics, it could be a huge deal

konstantinov: i hate skubal’s inconsistency, but good lord is the Tigers’ defense brutal.

Paul Sporer: Don’t forget it’s also his 9th start of the year!

Paul Sporer: I’m actually impressed w/him grinding out 6 and notching 7 Ks despite the 4 ER

Paul Sporer: All in all not too bad v. a tough Cubs club

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, gotta keep it to a tight hour today! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one!