Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 9th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Lord Thunder: Will Max Muncy or Michael Conforto reach 120 games played for LAD this season?

Paul Sporer: They will get the chance to if healthy, but I have no idea if either will stay healthy enough

Eye of the Tiger: Hi Paul, in 14-team H2H 5×5, do you like Moreno or Murphy at C and Cronenworth or Bell at CI rest of season? Thanks again!

Paul Sporer: Moreno/Bell for me w/those duos

Guest: Jesus but it feels like MLB should be sponsored by IcyHot or something right now

Paul Sporer: Yeah we definitely go through these periods where rashes of injuries pile up and it’s always brutal. We’ll have the inevitable “is the worst it’s ever been?” discourse soon that we do EVERY single year lol

Ben: Will Kjerstad get it going while Cowser is out?  Seems like now is his best opportunity.  Would you stay w/Kjerstad or pick up P. Smith (AZ)?  Redraft format

Paul Sporer: I’d stick w/Kjerstad and see what he can do here

See My Vest: Did I make a mistake picking up Will Vest instead of Shane Smith in my AL only league?

Paul Sporer: By virtue of Smith pitching very well in his first start, maybe, but the process of choosing Vest isn’t inherently bad/wrong. I imagine you were chasing some saves so I get it. I’m a big Shane Smith guy so I’d have advocated for him, but he could ruin his 2-step this wknd. Don’t get toooo hung up on the results, espec. comparing an RP v. SP. Gotta go through the best processes for your team and if SVs were a bigger need than a gamble SP, I get it.

Darren: are Dylan Crews’ struggles giving you concern or you think it’s just normal ups and downs of a young player? His BB% and K% are… ugly.

Paul Sporer: It’s ugly, but I’m not goin anywhere on Crews for a good while. I’m a huge fan so I’m sticking w/him for a month-plus (as long as WAS does, too, of course)

Guest: What percentage of people who complain about you swearing on the pod are also dropping f bombs towards other drivers as they bring their kids to school?

Paul Sporer: loooool, at least 70%!

Z-Contact %: I’m thinking about getting a cease and desist order from the pod mentions due to a particular host. Will you sign off on it?

Paul Sporer: I can be your star witness in the court proceedings lolol

Guest: Griffin Canning for Noelvi Marte. Fair trade?

Paul Sporer: Absent any other context, I’m OK w/it. I’m a Canning stan but I def don’t have a problem w/taking a shot on Noelvi for him

Duran: Langford to the IL hurts. AL Obp league: Should I pick up Ezequiel Duran? Does it matter that I already roster Joan Durran AND Jarren Duran?!

Paul Sporer: Oh mannnn, I didn’t even see Langford’s IL. It really is Bloody Wednesday. I think you can pick up Zeke and make it Duran-Duran-Duran!

M Dawg: Better SP stash? Darvish or Weathers? Either worth stashing in 12 team roto with QS? Also any prospect SPs you think will be up soon and worth grabbing yet?

Paul Sporer: I lean Darvish. He’s further away from returning, but the better bet for QS as Weathers could live in that 4-5 IP range, especially early on. Despite being a fan of both Darvish & Weathers, they are still longshot stashes in 12s. How many IL spots do you get? Are any prospect SPs already rostered? If not, I’d look at Bubba Chandler and Quinn Mathews as potentials

Trent “The Firm” Grisham: Trent Grisham (embarrassingly) leads my AL Only OBP league in homers. Do I owe it to him to hold or should I drop for a steadier presence? (Ty France, Brendan Rodgers, Oswaldo Cabrera are the types of guys out there.)

Paul Sporer: Cards on the table: I’m a huuuge Grisham fan so I’m seeing this through that prism, but I think he’s just as bankable as that other group when on. In other words, they all have legit flaws so let’s run the hot hand (funnily enough, I’m a pretty big fan of that whole group w/Rodgers & O-Cab also being guys I’ve hard reco’d in the past). Grish is earning PT and playing well enough to get starts even v. lefties so let’s see where this goes. No, the .400 BABIP won’t last, but if there’s some legitimacy to his K% gains, then he can hit .240+ with pop and a bit o’ speed. Good defense can help keep him in the lineup even during cold streaks at the dish, too

Jack: How long till MIN calls up Zebby?  Paddack is struggling

Paul Sporer: I think he’s first man up so sometime in April, hard to say when they make a move w/out injury, though

Adenolith: Goodman and Y. Diaz are available at catcher in my league but I have Willson Contreras. Would you dump him for either of them?

Paul Sporer: No, in 1-C leagues there will be appealing guys on the wire, but I’m sticking w/Willson… especiallyyyy as a non-catching catcher. He will be fine, IMO

Vogt Your Conscience: Drop Buxton for any of J. Walker, Wallner, Veen or Toglia?

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe in a 10-teamer, but I’m inclined to run w/Buxton a bit longer. Walker/Wallner would be my choice if you do move on

976 Evil: Easton Lucas passed eye test with decent stuff. Worth adding in 15 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Sure, might sit at BAL this wknd (though not even a guarantee as they are lefty-heavy and Lucas himself is a lefty), but then I like taking the shot v. SEA next wk and kinda see where this goes. I don’t have the hiiiighest hopes, but def not against the 15-team stream

Matt: Cam Smith gonna start making contact? Or did I waste my monetary might on him (and thus blocking me out of Victor Scott)?

Paul Sporer: You may have, he just might not be ready. That’s always a risk w/these quick risers. Ya gotta go in eyes wide open knowing you could be benching/cutting them 3 wks into the season if they aren’t quite ready and the team sends ’em back out. NYY stuck w/Volpe a couple yrs ago despite his struggles which was impressive on their part and likely due at least in part to his adding quality SS defense. Smith doesn’t bring the defensive piece so when he’s not hitting, there’s not much there. I’m not out on Smith long-term, but def can see a quick move in the short-term

Bleacher Bums: Flaherty is dealing today!

Paul Sporer: Just soooo overwhelmingly happy w/how the whole Flaherty Experience has worked out for Detroit. We’ll see how good he ends up being this year, but the elite 1H last yr, then the trade, and re-acquisition in the offseason has just been awesome so far

PG: Are you keeping the faith in Grant Holmes even if today goes poorly against PHI?

Paul Sporer: Yep, as a Holmes believer, I’m committed to giving him 7-8 starts in deeper leagues (I play almost exclusively 15 teamers) to see where this goes — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-april-9th-2025/

Guest: Rays just said Chandler was not an option to get a call up. Thin khe gets it at some point this year?

Paul Sporer: At some point, ya almost assuredly, but don’t forget this is his first go in AAA so I understand them wanting him to get some burn at AAA before a call-up

Nonnie: Is this a mirage by Soderstrom?

Paul Sporer: A mirage in that he won’t hit 75 HRs, yes… but he won’t maintain a 46% HR/FB or .379 BABIP. I am curious if that 20% K rate can stick. He was down to a palatable 25% last yr which we can absolutely live w/given his power upside. I was/sorta still am worried he could be a 30% K rate guy which would put his AVG in major risk. Perhaps the park will give him some AVG cushion even if the K rate is more 25-27%. He’s not a mirage in terms of the massive power output!

Ryan: Any concern with sale? Underlying stuff such as FIP, XFIP look good, but velo hasn’t been there and he got knocked around pretty hard last night.

Paul Sporer: Nah… velo matters, but his SwStr is actually slightly up v. last yr and is 24% K-BB is still fantastic (27% last yr). Schedule has been terribly unkind so far w/trips to SDP & LAD and then a home start v. PHI. It hasn’t gone super well, but he should be fine and I’m hoping/expecting that his ratios dip w/these TBR & MIN starts coming up next

PG: Sugano or Fitts in a 12 team roto with QS?  Both are equally meh

Paul Sporer: Fitts, especially w/B2B starts v. CWS coming up

Loren: Is Jose Soriano breaking out this year?

Paul Sporer: I think last yr was probably more the breakout while this year can hopefully be a continuation of that w/more innings! I’m a big believer in Sori!

Paul Loves Eno: Kristian Campbell top 20 dynasty player?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that sounds fine to me

Walker Texas Ranger: Is Marcus Semien cooked? I know it’s early but his numbers are ghastly across the board. How long am I holding him?

Paul Sporer: Too early to go there, IMO. I’m giving at leeeeaaasssttt a month! My biggest concern at this juncture is the 25% K rate bc even last yr w/his modest season, his K & BB rates were still in line w/his career marks. But 25% K/6% BB carries a tinge of concern… I’m gonna let the .125 BABIP play out a bit, though

Candyman: Hey Paul I know it’s early but Candelario is looking suuuper cooked right now. Options on the wire are gross but would you roll with Lamonte Wade over him or do you think I should hold out hope?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK going for Wade if you wanna make the move, though he of course isn’t doing much himself. I do like that he’s the leadoff vR for a solid team so I can see leaning toward Wade in this poopy coinflip

Age of Casparius: is Pablo ok then? i tried getting zebby last night, not enough fab

Paul Sporer: Oh right right right, Zebby could be up for Lopez if this is a bigger deal. I’d forgotten about his injury among the 900 that happened the last 2 days!

Re:zebby: Pablo Lopez seems like a likely IL, fwiw. Though maybe it’s Festa first

Paul Sporer: So yeah it comes down to Zebby v. Festa. I do like both, but lean Zebby. They’re both already on the 40 but Zebby has been brilliant in his 2 MiLB starts, so I think he shoooould get the first look

roberts: Christian Walker has 0 walks and a 37% strikeout rate.  How long can Houston keep sending him out before admitting his spring training oblique never actually healed?

Paul Sporer: It depends if that’s actually the reason. It makes logical sense that it’s the oblique, but we don’t actually know yet. If it is, they should just IL him and let him get right. If he’s fully healthy, then he’ll get some time to play through this

Guest: Dingler or Endy as my 2C in a 15 team 5×5?

Paul Sporer: Endy, love a C-elig. guy who gets extra burn elsewhere when he’s not catching and most of Endy’s gms have come at 1B so far

Matt W.: 15 team 2 catcher Jeffers or Dingler?

Paul Sporer: This one is really close and I think I lean Dingler. Jeffers appears to be in a straight 50-50 split whereas I think Dingler can be more of a 60-70% share with Rogers out and Tomas Nido backing him up

Dos Muncys: Any value to Kochanowicz in deep AL only?

Paul Sporer: Yeah someone in a rotation probably has some intrigue in a deep AL Only but I’m keeping expectations tempered w/Koch

Bog: I have an IL crunch. Would you drop Eflin for Jose Soriano, Michael Wacha or Mathew Boyd?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s Wacha in that group

Bido: Does starting Bido become more reasonable with Jackson Merrill out or still a hard pass?

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean Merrill and Tatis are out so that makes it more doable and I do like Bido, but that park does still keep it risky. Not a hard pass, just risky so make sure you go in eyes wide open if you take the shot

Kevvvin: Meta-question. Somehow I got stuck with the all-brutal start team (Willson, Joc, Correa, Yandy, Sale, etc., etc., and then some). I still really like the roster and am willing to give it a long leash; but this is certainly not helping with my acid reflux. When does last-place-by-a-country-mile become a real, actual concern for you?

Paul Sporer: With the established studs you have that are just off to a slow start, I’m not even blinking until Memorial Day. It can be painful and it’s not fun to just sit there and wait, but it’s the right move w/a crew like that. Should still have some backend of the roster pieces you can churn to try & jumpstart the team, but don’t cut those established studs

roberts: What am I supposed to think when Charlie Morton loses his command and gets tattooed on everything despite maintaining velocity and lots of K’s.  Mostly bad luck or mostly cooked?

Paul Sporer: I’m leaning cooked given his age and last year’s #s. I’m not super keen on Morton rn

Misner: Langford replacement, obp league: misner, ty France, ed Julien, Dezenzo? Or quit now…

Paul Sporer: LOL don’t quit! I lean Misner there

Paulie_Eff: With Lopez taken out of the game yesterday, is it a good proactive move to grab Zebby even though Pablo hasn’t been sent to the IL…(yet)?

Paul Sporer: Yes, go for Zebby where you can

fan of tigers #1 picks: will you join me in driving the casey mize hype train off the rails? i see some places say theyre not seeing major differences but his arsenal — especially what looks to be a legit 80-grade splitter — seems meaningfully different. and he dominated the yankees. he’s for real …… right?

Paul Sporer: I totally see a different Mize right now, so I’m fully in on the hype train. Yes, I’m a Tigers fan, we all know that and that no doubt colors my excitement, but I think both he and Tork have given real reasons to be excited!

Clete: I picked up Brendan Rodgers and Nolan Jones as replacement players. Is there any hope for either?

Paul Sporer: I still have some love for Rodgers so I’m eager to see what he can do in Houston. Jones meanwhile doesn’t NEED Coors to succeed, but he does need to stay healthy and not K at a 30% clip so there’s hope for him, too

Dos Muncys: Why isn’t India stealing bases?

Paul Sporer: Wasn’t he a little nicked up early on? Maybe just nursing some things or maybe just small sample. I don’t think he’ll be a speed demon, but def see a double-digit total if he stays healthy

Oh Buehler: Any hope for Walker? He looks a mess and is currently hanging on my bench. Is he a drop? 13tm std roto

Paul Sporer: I don’t see anything to really cling to w/Buehler. I’m generally pretty patient, but my patience is very thin w/Buehler and I’d be OK moving on if someone really appealed to me on the wire. Like Zebby for example, I’d much rather have him than Buehler

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta run. Thanks so much for coming out. I also do a boxscore review show 3x a week (Mon-Wed-Sat) and you can always ask questions there. It airs in the morning of those days on my Twitch channel (twitch.tv/sporer) and then I post the VODs on my YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLMuwlyjvVdjSXCbA9z5XYjUIBqtysCvLz — you can always ask questions in my SP Chart comments, too — https://www.fangraphs.com/blog-roll?category=SP+Chart