Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 7th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Welcome everybody! Working on the pod and lost track of time, so pardon me on the delayed start. Let’s talk some baseball!

Balker Wuehler: Hey Paul! Will there be a September SP Rankings released? Really looking forward to them. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m debating. It’s sooooo schedule specific, though, that I think I gotta come up with something besides a standard ranking

Paul Sporer: Should play regularly and I think he’s halfway decent. AL only mostly, but can see some deep league streaming capability

Mike: What do you think about Mikie Mahtook down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: Cool to answer the question before posting it. Sweet life.

JS: What’s Raimel Tapia’s future look like? Is he ever going to get an extended look in Colorado?

Paul Sporer: Gotta get one next year, right? Cargo and Parra are done in Colorado

Scott TINSTAAPP: What’s up with Francisco Mejia being only UT eligible in NFBC?! Booo!

Paul Sporer: Blame Cleveland, he DH’d more than anything else last year

Paul Sporer: (in a tiny sample)

Jake Junis Priest: Hi! AL OBP: Melky or Gardner? (My biggest needs are OBP and RBI.) Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Lemme get the Melk Man

Rudy: Hey Paul! 12 tm roto, in need of obp and rbi. Ok to drop Darth Bader for O’Hearn, Matt Davidson, or Matook? Thx

Paul Sporer: Maaaaaaybe for O’Hearn if you’re desperate for punch, but otherwise no thanks

mike: would you start jon gray tonight in a shallow (8 team) league?

Paul Sporer: Mmmm, nah I’m gonna pass there

Parts + Gleyber: Framber Valdez: seems interesting but also like a 2-pitch guy who can’t throw strikes consistently. Would you keep trusting ROS (AL only)? What pitcher is he next to in the pecking order? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: No, I’m jumping off that even in AL. A meltdown start is coming. Would rather speculate on Josh James even though he doesn’t have a role right now

Ryan DC: What happened to Matt Olson this year? Nobody expected a 40% HR/FB to continue, but someone with his batted ball profile should at least be in the 20s. Jeff Sullivan promised me JD Martinez, and I barely got Matt Adams!

Paul Sporer: It’s in the range of outcomes, but obviously on the lower end. I’m staying the course next year for sure, but I understand the disappointment that we didn’t coast to 30+ HRs

Scott TINSTAAPP: Oh right I forgot he was up last year smdh

Paul Sporer: This is re: Mejia, and yes I’m sure it was a rude awakening for many who wanted to slot him in at C

Scott TINSTAAPP: did you map out the offseason?  what’s on your plate for previews, SP Guide, etc?

Paul Sporer: Rotographs staff meeting soon to outline our plan and then from there I’ll formulate what I can add to the plate outside of RG. I’d like to run an SPG again, but it’s not locked by any stretch

John B: Start Kershaw against the Rox tonight? How about Gausman against the slumping D Backs?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure on Kersh. He never sits. Gotta keep going with Gaus, too, IMO

Playoff time: My hitting is struggling so far this week….Correa, Votto, and Altuve are partly to blame. Do you keep plugging guys like that in your lineup or play the hot hand in guys like Voit?

Paul Sporer: With superstars, I tend to stick with em and all three of those guys fit the bill. The more mid-tier guys, like the aforementioned Olson if he were in a slump could be moved  out for hot hands in a given situation

Paul Sporer: I really dove in on a H2H league this year and it was TOUGH. I rallied for a 5-game win streak to end the year only to be on the losing end of a 3-way tie for the last playoff spot. Only 4 of 10 make it so it was tough. Eager to run it back next year and maybe even add another H2H league so I can continue to provide better insight for that league type

Scott TINSTAAPP: how much FAAB do you generally hold onto for the last week of the season, given there are so many playing time issues with guys rested, etc?  Is $2 enough for leagues with no $0 bids?

Paul Sporer: Ya it all depends what I spent early based on injuries on such, but I feel good in a $0 if I have a few bucks ($2-6)

Chuck: You like Junis on Monday @ CWS in my 12-team H2H playoffs?

Paul Sporer: I do, he’s been sharp as hell lately and keeping the ball in the yard. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/8-second-half-sp-surgers/

Ryan DC: Where does Trea Turner get drafted next year? Where SHOULD he get drafted? If he’s not single-handedly delivering the steals category it seems to me like he’s a lot less valuable, since the gap between the top-end base stealers and everybody else is shrinking. The power has been nice, but kind of superfluous, and his woba has dropped every season. Late 2nd-round pick next year?

Paul Sporer: He’s still a top 2 round guy and I’m good with it. Disagree that the power is superfluous. You need MORE power these days to compete bc it’s so plentiful, so getting it from your primary SB source is excellent. He’s still leading baseball in steals and even though he’s “only” gonna have like 40 this year, he’s still a fair bet to go 50+ in any given season. Total stud and I’ll be happy to take him in the pick 12-20 range.

Ken: 10-team H2H playoffs – You okay with dropping Dozier and/or Shaw? Apologies for the long list, but I could pick up: Peraza, Zobrist, Gurriel, Starlin, Wendle, Beltre, Kipnis, etc.

Paul Sporer: Ya, Dozier & Shaw definitely fit the realm of player than can be cut in the playoffs similar to what “Playoff Time” was asking earlier

Paul Sporer: That group is pretty similar so I’d just dig in on the schedules and go from there

Pine Needles: How would you rank these streamers: Ryu at CIN, Bieber at TB, RHill at CIN, Junis vs CHW, and Matz vs MIA?

Paul Sporer: Junis, Hill, Matz, Ryu, Bieber

Tim: How are you feeling about Price and Paxton tonight? Any sense using them if I just need ratio help?

Paul Sporer: I meeeeaaannn if you can afford to sit ’em, I guess you can pass with the tough matchups and Price returning from a little layoff

yojiveself: is picking up Ohtani as a hitter for next week’s 7 game slate too risky?  I’m not sure if he will be sat in prep for the TJ surgery

Paul Sporer: No, I say go for it, I haven’t seen anything to suggest he’ll be benched

Tim: Think Wil Myers or AJ Pollock turn it on at some point here? Neither is really carrying his weight lately and all the zeroes are killing me (H2H league), but don’t want to cut bait prematurely.

Paul Sporer: I prefer Myers. I’d be more inclined to leave him in the lineup

Ed: You like Wendle to keep doing the damn thing?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’ll continue to be solid, He probably won’t stay quite as hot as we’ve seen, but he’ll be solid

Greg: Drop Odubel for Francisco Mejia? Need steals and RBIs.

Paul Sporer: Hmmmm, not sure either is gonna give you any real SBs so just ride Mejia for some ribbies

John W.: Thinking of acquiring Fiers or Happ for next week as a 2-start option. Have Marquez, Corbin, Nola, Clevinger, Tanaka and Freeland going. Stick and stay or go for one of those two? Someone else? Thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: Is Fiers definitely getting 2 next week? I’ve got him going Wednesday at BAL. So it’s Happ v. Freeland, but Freeland has a 2-start on the road after next week so I’d probably just ride it out with your guys

Bottom of the Barrel: As a matter of playoff survival, I need to cut one of the following (yes I own them all): Wily Peralta, Steckenrider, Givens. How I got here isn’t important. Who do I drop?

Paul Sporer: Bye Wily

Griffey’s Nerve Tonic: What happened to Severino?  Drop or hold Severino for the playoffs (12 team H2H categories, daily lineups)?  Likely opponents have more SPs than me so I don’t want to use a roster spot to bench him – if he isn’t playing I would rather use the scarce spot to stream SP or grab another RP for ratios/saves, so it’s start or cut.  I really thought he would have bounced back by now, but I also really don’t want to drop him.

Paul Sporer: He just hasn’t been himself since the break outside of Ks. The slider movement has been off and his fastball command has been very inconsistent. Seems soooo tough to cut him, but we gotta remove the name value and honestly assess the guy with a 6.95 ERA/1.59 WHIP combo…. I’m gonna say move on. His 2 start two weeks includes Boston, too. So if you’re not going to bench him, I think it’s goodbye

yojiveself: Who would you rather start at 1B next week – Tyler White or Ryan Zimmerman?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go White mostly on the strength of facing DET

SparkyMcguffy: Hypothetical. You are in the playoffs. 1st round. Your once “studs” are no longer studs….they are killing you. IE: Muncy, Gallo, Markakis… or even someone like Rhys or Grandal who are having terrible months/multiple weeks. Even Altuve or W. Ramos who have been bad since coming off DL stints. Do you drop them for a waiver wire hot/warm dude or hold and hope you get by to next week?

Paul Sporer: Big topic today it seems. I don’t think you can get rid of every struggling guy who’d been good before for a buncha hot hands bc then you’re going to get the cooldown of those hot hands and your guys are going to surge again. Take a look at the core skills and batted ball profiles of your strugglers and pick the best to hang onto, maybe cut 1-2 for a hot hand whose skills profile you like

John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Paul! Oh wise one! Enlighten thou!! Would you drop Suzuki for Mejia??

Paul Sporer: I think that’s fine, I don’t see a ton of difference, but if you prefer Mejia, it’s a perfectly acceptable move

yojiveself: Is Laureano a better play at Bal/Tb than Hicks at Min/home vs Tor?

Paul Sporer: Not better, no. Similar at best, but I still lean Hicks

Travis Sawchik: Josh JAMES

Paul Sporer: Yes

laura: still throwing glasnow out there with confidence next week despite his blow up? he faces CLE and OAK (at home)

Paul Sporer: I mean, I’ve been a Glasnow skeptic throughout. I’m not just going to pretend he’s the guy from the blowup and ignore the strong work before that, but he’s super volatile IMO and I don’t like that 2-start setup

Steinbrenner’s Ghost: Start hot O’Hearn or Franmil Reyes over slumping Hoskins in H2H-Points League playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Sure, but don’t CUT Hoskins. His profile isn’t so jacked that he can’t come out of it and finish strong

Eldridge Cleaver: I’ve had some injuries down the stretch and need to pick off the waiver wire to fill my Utility position.  Who is a better platoon UTIL player down the stretch: Kendrys Morales, Hunter Renfroe, or Luke Volt?

Paul Sporer: Only a 5-gm week for SD next week so that rules out Renfroe. Gimme Morales over Voit

Chuck: Cervelli or Mejia for the next two weeks in H2H playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Cervelli

Al: What’s the best way to prevent egregious service time manipulation like we’re seeing with Eloy, Vlad Jr. & Buxton?

Paul Sporer: Probably got change the entire structure, tbh, bc as frustrating as it is, these teams are working in their best interest. And lol at Buxton in that group… he’s not being held down for svc time, it’s bc he’s not good at baseball

TheLastWord: If I’m running a good bit ahead on my innings cap pace and I have a stacked rotation, is there any way I sit Kershaw in COL tonight?  I need to protect ratios more than anything.

Paul Sporer: I just can’t sit Kersh

Bernie: where does yelich get drafted next season?

Paul Sporer: 2nd round

TheLastWord: Is the Biebs at Top 40 SP next year?

Paul Sporer: No

Pat G: What’s the deal with Correa?

Paul Sporer: Back injuries often linger

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Going finish editing and then post the pod. Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). Have a great weekend!